Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $189.75 | Market Cap: $76.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $189.75Market Cap: $76.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.1 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.1% Key risksPSX key risks include [1] lower-than-expected financial performance in its refining segment due to margin compression and operational challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.1 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 30x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.1% |
| Key risksPSX key risks include [1] lower-than-expected financial performance in its refining segment due to margin compression and operational challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Phillips 66 (PSX) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Phillips 66 reported stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company announced Q1 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, significantly surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.54 by $1.03. This positive earnings surprise indicated robust operational performance. The company also reported a 6.9% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $32.54 billion.
2. Favorable macroeconomic conditions in the refining sector, including elevated refining margins, contributed to the stock's gains. U.S. refiners, including Phillips 66, were poised for their strongest quarterly profits since 2022, with gasoline crack spreads averaging approximately $25 per barrel and diesel margins near $45 per barrel in fiscal Q2 2026 (April 1 to June 30), driven by tight fuel supplies and strong export demand. Phillips 66 also benefited from its ability to process discounted heavy crude amidst geopolitical tensions, leading to lower feedstock costs and higher refined product prices.
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Phillips 66 (PSX) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Phillips 66 reported stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company announced Q1 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, significantly surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.54 by $1.03. This positive earnings surprise indicated robust operational performance. The company also reported a 6.9% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $32.54 billion.
2. Favorable macroeconomic conditions in the refining sector, including elevated refining margins, contributed to the stock's gains. U.S. refiners, including Phillips 66, were poised for their strongest quarterly profits since 2022, with gasoline crack spreads averaging approximately $25 per barrel and diesel margins near $45 per barrel in fiscal Q2 2026 (April 1 to June 30), driven by tight fuel supplies and strong export demand. Phillips 66 also benefited from its ability to process discounted heavy crude amidst geopolitical tensions, leading to lower feedstock costs and higher refined product prices.
3. Analyst upgrades and increased price targets signaled growing confidence in Phillips 66's outlook. Several prominent analyst firms raised their price targets for PSX during the period. For instance, TD Cowen increased its price target to $220 from $213 on June 29, 2026, while maintaining a Buy rating. Similarly, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $196 from $180, and Mizuho increased its target to $212 on May 27, 2026. The consensus among analysts shifted to a "Moderate Buy" rating, with an average price target ranging from $192.72 to $194.64, suggesting considerable upside potential for the stock.
4. Strategic business developments and a commitment to shareholder returns bolstered investor sentiment. Phillips 66 advanced several key initiatives, including the completion of the Lindsey Oil Refinery acquisition and logistics assets in April 2026, enhancing its integrated U.K. business. The company also progressed the Western Gateway Pipeline project and announced the Zeus Gas Plant and a third Coastal Bend Fractionator, further strengthening its integrated wellhead-to-market strategy. Additionally, Phillips 66 continued to return capital to shareholders by declaring a quarterly dividend of $1.27 per share on April 17, 2026, payable on June 1, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in PSX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 180.87 | 189.82 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 132,376 | 134,486 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 3.1% | -7.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 18.5 | 11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 404 | 402 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PSX | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | -30.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | -10.5% | 77.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.4% change in PSX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.07 | 189.82 | 49.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 131,953 | 134,486 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 3.1% | 168.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.2 | 18.5 | -45.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 405 | 402 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PSX | 49.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | -20.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 23.4% | 77.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.6% change in PSX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 127.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 115.35 | 189.82 | 64.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 137,772 | 134,486 | -2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.3% | 3.1% | 127.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.4 | 18.5 | -27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 409 | 402 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PSX | 64.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | -3.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 32.4% | 76.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 120.6% change in PSX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 474.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.05 | 189.82 | 120.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 168,207 | 134,486 | -20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 3.1% | -58.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.2 | 18.5 | 474.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 465 | 402 | 15.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 120.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PSX | 120.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 34.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 47.6% | 77.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSX Return | 9% | 50% | 33% | -12% | 18% | 48% | 232% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 74% | 5% | -6% | 24% | 52% | 378% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSX Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 68% | 50% | 48% | 67% | 74% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSX Max Drawdown | -30% | -32% | -17% | -34% | -29% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -27% | -25% | -30% | -24% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VLO, MPC, XOM, CVX, DINO. See PSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Phillips 66's stock fell -27.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 38.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Phillips 66's stock fell -27.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 38.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Phillips 66 (PSX)
Phillips 66 (PSX) is an integrated energy manufacturing and logistics company. At its core, the company refines crude oil and other feedstocks into essential petroleum products like gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. These fuels are then marketed and sold primarily across the United States and Europe. Beyond traditional refining, Phillips 66 also manufactures and markets specialized products such as base oils and lubricants.
The company plays a crucial role in the energy supply chain through its Midstream operations, which involve transporting crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). This segment also provides vital storage and terminaling services, and processes NGLs for various markets. Additionally, Phillips 66's Chemicals segment produces a diverse portfolio of petrochemicals, including ethylene, aromatics, and specialty chemicals, serving a wide array of industrial manufacturers.
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- Think of it as a combination of a major oil refiner (like Valero Energy), a large chemical manufacturer (like Dow Chemical), and an extensive energy pipeline operator (like Kinder Morgan).
- It's similar to the refining, chemicals, and logistics divisions of an integrated oil giant such as ExxonMobil or Shell, but without the business of drilling for oil and gas.
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- Crude Oil and Refined Product Midstream Services: These services encompass the transportation, terminaling, and storage of crude oil, other feedstocks, and refined petroleum products.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Services: The company provides comprehensive services including the transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing of natural gas liquids.
- Natural Gas Midstream Services: This involves the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas.
- Petrochemicals: Phillips 66 produces and markets a range of chemical products, including ethylene, olefins, aromatics, styrenics, and various specialty chemicals.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The company refines crude oil into various fuels such as gasolines, distillates, aviation fuels, and renewable fuels.
- Specialty Lubricants and Base Oils: Phillips 66 manufactures and markets specialty products, including base oils and lubricants.
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Major Customers of Phillips 66 (PSX)
Phillips 66 primarily sells its products and services to other companies (B2B) rather than directly to individual consumers. Given the diversified nature of its operations across Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties segments, its major customers span various industrial and commercial sectors. The company does not publicly disclose specific major customer names due to the broad and varied nature of its sales relationships. Instead, its customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Fuel Distributors, Marketers, and Commercial End-Users: This category includes companies that purchase refined petroleum products (such as gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels) in bulk for distribution to retail stations (both branded and independent), as well as direct commercial and industrial users like airlines, trucking companies, and industrial operations.
- Petrochemical and Industrial Manufacturers: These are companies across various industries (e.g., plastics, automotive, packaging, construction, agriculture) that purchase Phillips 66's chemical products (like ethylene, olefins, aromatics, styrenics, and specialty chemicals) and base oils as feedstocks and raw materials for their own manufacturing processes.
- Other Energy Companies: This category encompasses oil and natural gas producers, other refiners, and petrochemical companies that utilize Phillips 66's Midstream services for the transportation, storage, fractionation, and processing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas, and refined petroleum products.
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Mark Lashier
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mark Lashier is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Phillips 66. He has over 30 years of experience in executive leadership roles within the energy and petrochemical industries. Lashier became Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66 in July 2022, following his role as President and CEO. Before joining Phillips 66, he served as President and CEO of Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem), a joint venture between Phillips 66 and Chevron, from 2017 to 2021. His tenure at CPChem also included leadership positions such as Executive Vice President of Olefins and Polyolefins, Senior Vice President of Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics, Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development, Project Director for Saudi Arabia, and Regional Manager in Asia. Lashier began his career at Phillips Petroleum as an Associate Research Engineer and holds 13 U.S. patents.
Kevin J. Mitchell
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevin J. Mitchell is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Phillips 66. He is responsible for investor relations, treasury, financial planning & analysis, accounting, auditing, tax, commercial risk, business transformation, and corporate strategy & development functions. Mitchell brings over 30 years of experience in finance roles within the oil and gas industry. He joined Phillips 66 in September 2014 as Vice President, Investor Relations. Prior to Phillips 66, he held positions at ConocoPhillips, including General Auditor and Vice President, Exploration and Production — Strategy, Administration and Technical Services. Mitchell joined Conoco in 1991, where he gained experience in various finance and accounting roles, such as General Manager of Upstream Finance, Strategy and Planning; Vice President of Finance and Administration for ConocoPhillips Alaska; and Manager of Treasury Services. He is a certified internal auditor and a fellow with the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants. Mitchell also serves on the board of directors for Phillips 66 Partners, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, and DCP Midstream, LLC.
Don Baldridge
Executive Vice President, Midstream and Chemicals
Don Baldridge is Executive Vice President of Midstream and Chemicals for Phillips 66. He has more than 25 years of experience in areas such as strategy, operations, commercial, and acquisition assessment. Baldridge joined Phillips 66 in 2023 as part of the acquisition of DCP Midstream.
Brian Mandell
Executive Vice President, Marketing and Commercial
Brian Mandell is Executive Vice President of Marketing and Commercial for Phillips 66. He possesses over 30 years of experience across various Marketing, Commercial, and Midstream roles. His previous roles at Phillips 66 include Senior Vice President, Commercial; President, Global Marketing; and Global Trading Lead, Clean Products, Commercial. Before joining Phillips 66 in May 2012, Mandell worked for ConocoPhillips.
Tandra Perkins
Executive Vice President, Chief Digital and Administrative Officer
Tandra Perkins is Executive Vice President, Chief Digital and Administrative Officer for Phillips 66. She has 30 years of professional experience spanning multiple industries, including energy and chemicals, industrial manufacturing, and health care. At Phillips 66, Perkins oversees enabling services that support the enterprise, such as Digital Transformation and IT, Energy Research and Innovation, Procurement, Real Estate and Facilities, Agile Enterprise Services, and Executive Services.
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The public company Phillips 66 (PSX) faces several key risks inherent to the energy manufacturing and logistics industry.
-
Global Energy Transition and Decarbonization Efforts
Phillips 66's core business, particularly its Refining and Marketing & Specialties segments, faces a significant long-term risk from the accelerating global energy transition. This includes the potential for declining demand for fossil fuels due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), advancements in renewable energy, and stricter environmental regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions. This trend could lead to "long-term gasoline demand erosion from EV adoption" and "potential carbon pricing that could raise operating costs and reduce refining margins". The company is adapting by diversifying into lower-carbon fuels like renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
-
Commodity Price Volatility
The profitability of Phillips 66 is highly sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. "Refining margins and commodity prices are subject to significant fluctuations", impacting its Refining, Midstream, Chemicals, and Marketing & Specialties segments. Volatility in crude oil prices (input costs), natural gas prices (feedstock for chemicals and operational fuel), and refined product prices can compress margins and affect earnings across the business. "Crack spread volatility" and "cyclical chemical demand swings" are specific concerns that can affect the company's financial stability.
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Regulatory and Environmental Pressures
Operating in the energy and chemical sectors subjects Phillips 66 to extensive and evolving regulatory and environmental pressures. The company "is subject to stringent environmental regulations and potential litigation related to climate change". Compliance with these regulations can result in increased operational costs, while litigation can lead to financial liabilities and reputational damage. "Evolving environmental policies and regulatory changes pose ongoing threats" to its operations and financial performance.
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The accelerated global transition to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles poses a clear emerging threat by progressively reducing demand for traditional refined petroleum products, aviation fuels, and associated midstream services.
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Phillips 66 (PSX) operates within several significant addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size was estimated at approximately USD 3.13 trillion in 2025. In the United States, the petroleum refining market was valued at USD 793.3 billion in 2024. These products include gasolines, distillates, aviation fuels, and renewable fuels.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemicals market size was estimated at USD 700.53 billion in 2025. For the United States specifically, the petrochemicals market size was approximately USD 114.44 billion in 2025. This market encompasses products such as ethylene, olefins, aromatics, and styrenics.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 25.19 billion in 2025. In the United States, the natural gas liquid market size was estimated at USD 5.9 billion in 2024. NGLs are transported, stored, fractionated, exported, and marketed by the company.
- Base Oils: The global base oil market size was valued at USD 44.20 billion in 2025. The U.S. base oil market generated USD 8.7 billion in revenue in 2023.
- Lubricants: The global lubricants market size was USD 178.14 billion in 2025. The U.S. lubricants market size was valued at USD 41.71 billion in 2024.
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Phillips 66 (PSX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives across its segments:
- Midstream Segment Expansion and Integration: Phillips 66 is significantly expanding its Midstream operations through strategic acquisitions and organic projects. Key initiatives include increased interest in DCP Midstream and the acquisition of Pinnacle Midstream, with an adjacent processing plant commencing operations in mid-2025. The acquisition of EPIC NGL, completed in January 2025, and expansion projects such as the Dos Picos II NGL fractionator, expected online in Q3 2025, are projected to boost Midstream adjusted EBITDA to $4.5 billion by 2027. The company has allocated $1.1 billion for its Midstream segment, including $700 million for growth projects like the Iron Mesa gas processing plant and the Coastal Bend NGL pipeline expansion. These expansions and integrations are anticipated to increase volumes and diversify earnings, contributing to a targeted $1 billion mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA growth from Midstream and Chemicals by 2027.
- Renewable Fuels Production Growth: The company is strategically shifting towards renewable fuels, with its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex serving as a key growth driver. Projects like "Rodeo Renewed" are focused on new product lines, specifically renewable diesel and other renewable products, which are expected to contribute to top-line revenue as production scales up. The Rodeo renewable energy complex has reached full operating rates, processing approximately 50,000 barrels per day of renewable feedstocks. Additionally, Phillips 66 is investing in renewable energy, as exemplified by its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex, which includes its first solar project commissioned in 2025.
- Optimized Refining Operations and Higher-Value Product Yields: Phillips 66 is enhancing its refining performance by focusing on increased reliability, improved market capture, and cost reduction, alongside an emphasis on higher clean product yields. The company has achieved high utilization rates in its refining segment, reaching 99% in Q3 2024, the highest since 2018. An improved clean product yield, which stands at 87% year-to-date from 84% three years ago, signifies the production of more valuable products from each barrel of crude processed, thereby increasing revenue. Refining capacity increased by about 35,000 barrels per day across the system, and clean product yields reached record levels in 2025, with controllable costs trending toward the $5.50 per barrel target.
- Growth in Chemicals Segment: The Chemicals segment is expected to be a contributor to future revenue growth, forming part of the combined Midstream and Chemicals segment's target of $1 billion in mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA growth by 2027. Joint venture petrochemical projects are slated for 2026 startups, which will further enhance integrated operations. Strategic capital investments are being directed towards the Chemicals segment to support these growth initiatives.
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<h3>Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Share Repurchases</strong></li>
<ul>
<li>Phillips 66 executed share repurchases of $4.014 billion in 2023 and $3.451 billion in 2024.</li>
<li>The company reported $267 million in share buybacks for the quarter ending September 30, 2025.</li>
<li>Since July 2022, Phillips 66 has returned over $14 billion to shareholders, which includes share repurchases.</li>
</ul>
<li><strong>Share Issuance</strong></li>
<ul>
<li>Phillips 66 has consistently reduced its outstanding shares, with declines of 4.33% in 2023, 6.91% in 2024, and 3.28% in 2025, indicating no significant share issuances during this period.</li>
</ul>
<li><strong>Outbound Investments</strong></li>
<ul>
<li>In FY 2025, Phillips 66 completed $3.5 billion in acquisitions (net of cash acquired), which included a $2.2 billion Coastal Bend midstream acquisition.</li>
<li>The company acquired an additional 50% interest in WRB Refining LP from Cenovus Energy Inc for $1.4 billion in Q3 2025, gaining full ownership of the Wood River and Borger refineries.</li>
<li>Phillips 66's proportionate share of capital spending for its Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem) joint venture is expected to be $680 million in 2026, funding world-scale petrochemical facilities.</li>
</ul>
<li><strong>Capital Expenditures</strong></li>
<ul>
<li>Capital expenditures averaged $1.999 billion annually from 2021 to 2025, peaking at $2.233 billion in 2025.</li>
<li>For 2026, Phillips 66 announced a capital budget of $2.4 billion, comprising $1.1 billion for sustaining capital and $1.3 billion for growth capital.</li>
<li>The 2026 growth capital is primarily focused on the NGL value chain within the Midstream segment and high-return refining projects, including expanding processing plants and pipelines, and improvements at the Humber refinery.</li>
</ul>
</ul>Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 181.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 83.7 |
| Rev LTM | 134,934 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,131 |
| FCF LTM | 5,627 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,196 |
| CFO LTM | 7,851 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,010 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 100.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 83.7 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 19.2 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 41.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 55.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 101.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 41.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 34.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 38.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing and Specialties (M&S) | 85,897 | 92,447 | 98,769 | 112,169 | 73,933 |
| Refining | 74,899 | 84,964 | 96,011 | 41,598 | 28,695 |
| Midstream | 21,175 | 18,787 | 18,605 | 16,189 | 8,813 |
| Renewable Fuels | 6,178 | 5,562 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 47 | 50 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| Chemicals | 0 | 0 | 3 | ||
| Consolidating Adjustments | -55,820 | -58,657 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -66,022 | ||||
| Total | 132,376 | 143,153 | 147,399 | 169,990 | 111,476 |
| $ Mil | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 2,169 | -484 | -490 | -393 | -431 |
| Refining | 1,404 | 374 | 2,555 | 1,771 | 1,747 |
| Marketing and Specialties (M&S) | 686 | 891 | 1,187 | 1,034 | 894 |
| Chemicals | 525 | 583 | 962 | 1,137 | 986 |
| Midstream | 464 | 280 | 13 | 507 | 469 |
| Discontinued Operations | 0 | 706 | 61 | ||
| Total | 5,248 | 1,644 | 4,227 | 4,762 | 3,726 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midstream | 30,172 | 28,334 | 29,107 | 30,273 | 15,932 |
| Refining | 19,435 | 19,599 | 22,432 | 21,581 | 19,952 |
| Marketing and Specialties (M&S) | 10,059 | 9,799 | 11,411 | 9,939 | 8,505 |
| Chemicals | 7,899 | 7,842 | 7,357 | 6,785 | 6,453 |
| Renewable Fuels | 3,197 | 3,142 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 2,918 | 3,866 | 5,194 | 7,864 | 4,752 |
| Total | 73,680 | 72,582 | 75,501 | 76,442 | 55,594 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $189.82 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 76.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/12/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $175.70 | $152.71 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.0% | 24.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.3% | 30.2% |
| Downside Capture | -130.28 | -64.40 |
| Upside Capture | -10.29 | -1.12 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -23.7% | -3.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.31 | -0.58 | -0.68 | -0.47 | -0.07 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | -1.79 | -1.77 | -1.25 | -0.90 | -0.25 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | -0.26 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.60 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | -17% | -50% | -45% | -19% | 1% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 65 | 135 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 27% | -36% | -77% | -158% | -94% | 54% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 60 | 117 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 51.3% | 30.1% | 1.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 26.9% | 20.8% | 1.04 | 76.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.33 | -3.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.4% | 27.8% | 0.77 | 0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 1.00 | 47.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 3.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.8% | 42.8% | -1.18 | 2.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 21.7% | 33.2% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 19.4% | 25.9% | 0.67 | 80.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 50.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 26.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 53.5% | 0.42 | 11.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PSX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSX | 13.4% | 35.3% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.4% | 29.5% | 0.36 | 82.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.1% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 47.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/6/2026 | -1.5% | -9.5% | 1.7% |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.5% | 6.2% | 13.3% |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| 7/25/2025 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 4/25/2025 | -0.7% | -1.2% | 9.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -0.0% | 4.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.4% | -6.1% | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.8% | -6.2% | -3.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.6% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -5.4% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 8.4% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -9.5% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/6/2026 | -1.5% | -9.5% | 1.7% |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.5% | 6.2% | 13.3% |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| 7/25/2025 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 4/25/2025 | -0.7% | -1.2% | 9.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -0.0% | 4.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.4% | -6.1% | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.8% | -6.2% | -3.5% |
| 4/26/2024 | -3.7% | -8.5% | -8.5% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 2.3% |
| 5/3/2023 | 1.3% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
| 1/31/2023 | -5.8% | -7.8% | 1.8% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 4.9% |
| 7/29/2022 | 1.1% | -6.1% | 5.9% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.5% | 8.4% | 17.8% |
| 1/28/2022 | -1.8% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 10/29/2021 | -2.6% | 0.2% | -7.9% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.5% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 4/5/2021 | -1.5% | -5.4% | 1.2% |
| 1/29/2021 | -5.1% | 0.7% | 19.9% |
| 10/30/2020 | 1.5% | 4.8% | 33.8% |
| 7/31/2020 | -1.7% | -3.4% | -0.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 1.6% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -5.4% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 8.4% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -9.5% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/26/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Total Debt Target | 17.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Budget | 2.40 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Sustaining Capital | 1.10 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Organic Growth Capital | 1.3E11% | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Golden Triangle Polymers Project Startup | |||||||
| 2027 Ras Laffan Polymers Project Startup | |||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 171.56 | 600 | 102,936 | 16,705,827 | Form |
| 2 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 170.00 | 29,400 | 4,998,147 | 16,554,407 | Form |
| 3 | Meyers, Kevin Omar | Direct | Buy | 5072026 | 173.12 | 175 | 30,297 | 2,908,327 | Form | |
| 4 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 190.07 | 15,629 | 2,970,546 | 18,507,896 | Form |
| 5 | Meyers, Kevin Omar | Direct | Buy | 3172026 | 173.20 | 175 | 30,310 | 2,879,277 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 171.56 | 600 | 102,936 | 16,705,827 | Form |
| 2 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 170.00 | 29,400 | 4,998,147 | 16,554,407 | Form |
| 3 | Meyers, Kevin Omar | Direct | Buy | 5072026 | 173.12 | 175 | 30,297 | 2,908,327 | Form | |
| 4 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 190.07 | 15,629 | 2,970,546 | 18,507,896 | Form |
| 5 | Meyers, Kevin Omar | Direct | Buy | 3172026 | 173.20 | 175 | 30,310 | 2,879,277 | Form | |
| 6 | Davis, Lisa Ann | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 174.37 | 3,800 | 662,617 | 1,517,250 | Form | |
| 7 | Mandell, Brian | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 169.53 | 42,800 | 7,255,756 | 10,442,002 | Form |
| 8 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 168.22 | 16,856 | 2,835,569 | 16,380,893 | Form |
| 9 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 165.03 | 4,944 | 815,899 | 16,069,776 | Form |
| 10 | Baldridge, Don | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 160.00 | 7,500 | 1,200,000 | 6,158,080 | Form |
| 11 | Sutherland, Vanessa Allen | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 150.00 | 4,394 | 659,100 | 3,869,850 | Form |
| 12 | Mandell, Brian | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 140.04 | 25,500 | 3,571,020 | 7,959,582 | Form |
| 13 | Mandell, Brian | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 137.68 | 26,200 | 3,607,165 | 7,825,335 | Form |
| 14 | Mitchell, Kevin J | Exec. VP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 138.00 | 30,000 | 4,140,000 | 12,388,398 | Form |
| 15 | Sutherland, Vanessa Allen | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9292025 | 140.00 | 4,393 | 615,020 | 4,842,180 | Form |
| 16 | Sutherland, Vanessa Allen | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 135.00 | 4,393 | 593,055 | 5,262,300 | Form |
| 17 | Hayes, Gregory | Direct | Buy | 8142025 | 119.90 | 8,350 | 1,001,165 | 3,527,834 | Form | |
| 18 | Cornelius, Sigmund L | Direct | Buy | 8012025 | 123.55 | 500 | 61,775 | 2,661,638 | Form | |
| 19 | Heim, Michael A | Direct | Buy | 8012025 | 125.97 | 1,000 | 125,970 | 1,517,057 | Form | |
| 20 | Sutherland, Vanessa Allen | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 130.00 | 4,393 | 571,090 | 5,638,490 | Form |
| 21 | Mandell, Brian | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6202025 | 125.00 | 9,800 | 1,225,000 | 7,104,740 | Form |
| 22 | Pease, Robert W | Direct | Buy | 5272025 | 113.85 | 439 | 49,980 | 465,804 | Form |
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Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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