Paysafe (PSFE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.18 | Market Cap: $485.1 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Paysafe (PSFE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.18Market Cap: $485.1 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 311% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Markets & Betting, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Markets & Betting, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 311% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PSFE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Paysafe Missed Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Expectations.
Paysafe reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70 for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $0.73. Additionally, the company's Q3 revenue of $433.8 million missed the anticipated $439.51 million. This dual miss on key financial metrics contributed to a significant negative market reaction.
2. The Company Significantly Lowered its Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance.
Following the Q3 results, Paysafe dramatically cut its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $1.83-$1.88, down from its previous guidance of $2.21-$2.51. Full-year revenue projections were also reduced to $1.70 billion-$1.71 billion, from an earlier target of $1.710 billion-$1.734 billion. This downward revision in guidance signaled weaker expectations for future performance.
3. A Shift Towards Lower-Margin Products Impacted Profitability.
A key factor cited for the lowered guidance was a stronger-than-expected performance in lower-margin products and sales channels, such as the Independent Sales Organization (ISO) channel. This negative mix shift negatively affected overall profitability, outweighing growth in higher-margin areas.
4. Paysafe Reported a Widened Net Loss Due to a Large Income Tax Charge.
The net loss for the third quarter of 2025 significantly widened to $87.7 million, compared to a net loss of $13.0 million in the same period a year prior. This increase was primarily driven by an $81.2 million income tax charge, a non-cash item, related to a new valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets following the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in July 2025.
5. Analyst Downgrades and Concerns Over High Leverage Exacerbated the Decline.
In response to the disappointing financial update, several analysts lowered their price targets for Paysafe, and some maintained or downgraded their ratings, reflecting cautious sentiment. Furthermore, concerns over the company's financial health, including a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.22 and an Altman Z-Score of -0.09 indicating potential distress, contributed to investor apprehension.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSFE Return | - | -74% | -70% | -8% | 34% | -52% | -95% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -1% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSFE Win Rate | 100% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSFE Max Drawdown | - | -78% | -75% | -33% | -5% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PSFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2377.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -7.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Paysafe's stock fell -96.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/21/2021. A -96.0% loss requires a 2377.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| PSFE Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| null | ||
| Paysafe (PSFE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PSFE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paysafe
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,587 |
| Op Inc LTM | 34 |
| FCF LTM | 207 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 284 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -5.9 |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | 878 | 817 | 745 | 611 | |
| Digital Wallets | 735 | 686 | 750 | 424 | |
| Elimination of intersegment revenue | -12 | -7 | -8 | ||
| Corporate | 0 | ||||
| Digital Commerce | 816 | ||||
| ECash Solutions | 265 | ||||
| Integrated Processing | 729 | ||||
| Total | 1,601 | 1,496 | 1,487 | 1,426 | 1,418 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Wallets | 319 | 289 | |||
| Integrated Processing | 222 | 200 | |||
| Gain / (loss) on disposal of subsidiaries and other assets, net | -0 | -1 | |||
| Impairment expense on goodwill and other assets | -1 | -1,887 | |||
| Restructuring and other costs | -6 | -64 | |||
| Share-based compensation | -29 | -62 | |||
| Unallocated Corporate costs | -82 | -80 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization | -263 | -267 | |||
| Total | 159 | -1,872 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10192022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5182022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |