Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $94.51 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $94.51Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -53% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -53% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PNFP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP) stock moved by -2.9% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Negative Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Beat
Despite Pinnacle Financial Partners reporting third-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed Wall Street's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, the stock experienced a 3.49% decline on the day its results were released, October 15, 2025. This negative market reaction, even with strong financial performance, likely contributed to the overall downward movement. Shares of Pinnacle Financial also showed a -2.9% return over the month preceding October 15, 2025.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Rating Adjustments
Several analyst firms revised their outlooks for PNFP during this period, contributing to negative sentiment. For instance, UBS maintained a "Hold" rating and lowered its price target from $104 to $95 on November 5, 2025. Similarly, Wells Fargo maintained a "Hold" rating and reduced its price target from $110 to $100 on October 17, 2025. Truist Financial also dropped its target price to $95. These adjustments can signal reduced growth expectations or increased caution among investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PNFP Return | 2% | 50% | -22% | 20% | 32% | -18% | 55% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 31% | 12% | -7% | 30% | 1% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PNFP Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 68% | 53% | 48% | 55% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PNFP Max Drawdown | -50% | -1% | -28% | -37% | -14% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -3% | -8% | -34% | -10% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FHN, SSB, WTFC, CFR, PB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PNFP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 552 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 752 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1517 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FHN, SSB, WTFC, CFR, PB
In The Past
Pinnacle Financial Partners's stock fell -58.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -58.2% loss requires a 139.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PNFP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.3% | -18.1% | -25.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 12312024 | PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.3% | -18.1% | -25.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pinnacle Financial Partners
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,292 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 368 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 562 |
| CFO LTM | 423 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 646 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 23.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -62.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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