Onity (ONIT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $44.81 | Market Cap: $361.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Onity (ONIT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $44.81Market Cap: $361.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4417% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, IoT for Buildings, Show more. | Key risksONIT key risks include [1] significant financial fragility and potential bankruptcy risk due to its substantial debt load and "distress zone" Altman Z-Score, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, IoT for Buildings, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.5%, Dist 3Y High is -1.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4417% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -97% |
| Key risksONIT key risks include [1] significant financial fragility and potential bankruptcy risk due to its substantial debt load and "distress zone" Altman Z-Score, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONIT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Onity Group Inc. (ONIT) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst estimates.** The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03, exceeding the estimated $1.96 by 3.57%. This positive earnings beat likely fueled investor confidence and contributed to the stock's upward movement.
**2. A strategic relationship with Finance of America Reverse was announced on November 18, 2025.** This collaboration signaled potential growth opportunities and expanded market reach for Onity Group, positively impacting its stock performance.
**3. Finance of America acquired reverse mortgage assets from Onity Group's subsidiary, PHH Mortgage, on November 18, 2025.** This acquisition could have been seen by investors as a strategic move to optimize Onity's asset portfolio or generate capital, contributing to a positive stock reaction.
**4. Onity Group presented at key investor conferences in late 2025.** The company presented at the Bank of America Leveraged Finance Conference on December 2, 2025, and had an upcoming investor conference presentation on November 25, 2025. Such presentations often highlight company strengths, future outlooks, and strategic initiatives, attracting investor interest.
**5. The stock exhibited a general positive trend in the weeks leading up to mid-December 2025.** Onity Group Inc. experienced a 7.40% rise in the week prior to an unspecified date around December 12, 2025, and a 5.84% increase over the preceding month. This sustained positive momentum suggests growing investor optimism for the company's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONIT Return | 41% | 38% | -23% | 1% | -0% | 45% | 117% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 33% | -16% | 23% | 4% | -2% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONIT Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 40% | 48% | 50% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONIT Max Drawdown | -77% | -21% | -55% | -30% | -27% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -5% | -40% | -13% | -9% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALLE, HON, NSSC, FBIN, SPB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONIT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,204 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 408.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 382.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 353.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 536 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, RKT, PFSI
In The Past
Onity's stock fell -56.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2022. A -56.4% loss requires a 129.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONIT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Onity
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 3,394 |
| Op Inc LTM | 443 |
| FCF LTM | 280 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 299 |
| CFO LTM | 373 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 358 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 12.1% |
| 4/30/2025 | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | -8.3% | -17.2% | -22.9% |
| 11/5/2024 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 6.6% |
| 10/21/2024 | 0.2% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -1.5% | -15.8% | 1.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -6.1% | -9.9% | -7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -12.8% | -18.6% |
| Max Positive | 70.0% | 48.8% | 100.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.1% | -22.2% | -29.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |