Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 8.0%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 50%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Key risks
ONB key risks include [1] challenges in successfully integrating its significant strategic acquisitions.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10.0%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 21%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 8.0%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 21%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -24%
8 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10.0%
9 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 50%
10 Key risks
ONB key risks include [1] challenges in successfully integrating its significant strategic acquisitions.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ONB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Old National Bancorp (ONB) experienced a positive stock movement, including a 4.71% increase over two weeks leading up to December 19, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Old National Bancorp reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing analysts' expectations. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.59, exceeding the forecasted $0.56, while revenue also beat predictions, totaling $705.07 million against an anticipated $696.71 million. This positive earnings surprise contributed to a 1.52% rise in pre-market trading after the announcement.

2. The successful completion of the Bremer Bank partnership integration enhanced operational efficiency and positioned the company for future growth. The full-quarter impact of the Bremer Bank partnership was a significant driver of higher net interest income.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ONB Return-6%13%3%-2%32%9%53%
Peers Return-3%37%-13%-0%25%-3%41%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ONB Win Rate58%75%33%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%67%47%48%55%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ONB Max Drawdown-35%-3%-20%-32%-8%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-1%-23%-35%-13%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PNFP, SNV, UBSI, GBCI, FFIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventONBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven545 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven286 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-30.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven809 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to PNFP, SNV, UBSI, GBCI, FFIN


In The Past

Old National Bancorp's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -42.2% loss requires a 73.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Better Bets than Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ONB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Old National Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ONBPNFPSNVUBSIGBCIFFINMedian
NameOld Nati.Pinnacle.Synovus .United B.Glacier .First Fi. 
Mkt Price23.35100.6452.6439.9445.6331.0642.78
Mkt Cap9.17.77.35.75.44.46.5
Rev LTM2,3241,7392,3551,1789226001,459
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM7291,048668481322297575
FCF 3Y Avg5636241,002446332281504
CFO LTM7581,143702496353309599
CFO 3Y Avg5967101,042459377296528

Growth & Margins

ONBPNFPSNVUBSIGBCIFFINMedian
NameOld Nati.Pinnacle.Synovus .United B.Glacier .First Fi. 
Rev Chg LTM24.9%22.2%24.7%14.3%17.5%17.7%20.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.7%12.4%5.1%5.9%2.0%5.5%5.7%
Rev Chg Q45.1%13.5%10.2%23.6%21.3%15.8%18.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.4%3.3%2.5%5.5%5.1%3.7%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM32.6%65.7%29.8%42.1%38.3%51.5%40.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.0%45.1%48.0%42.2%44.8%55.8%44.9%
FCF/Rev LTM31.4%60.3%28.4%40.8%35.0%49.5%37.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg27.3%39.4%46.1%40.9%39.4%53.0%40.2%

Valuation

ONBPNFPSNVUBSIGBCIFFINMedian
NameOld Nati.Pinnacle.Synovus .United B.Glacier .First Fi. 
Mkt Cap9.17.77.35.75.44.46.5
P/S3.94.53.14.85.97.44.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E15.012.49.113.122.818.314.1
P/CFO12.06.810.411.415.314.411.7
Total Yield6.7%9.0%13.9%11.3%7.2%7.8%8.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.0%3.0%3.7%2.8%2.4%2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.5%9.3%20.2%9.7%7.9%6.3%9.4%
D/E0.70.30.40.10.20.00.3
Net D/E0.5-0.5-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.7

Returns

ONBPNFPSNVUBSIGBCIFFINMedian
NameOld Nati.Pinnacle.Synovus .United B.Glacier .First Fi. 
1M Rtn11.4%11.7%12.8%8.3%9.0%-0.4%10.2%
3M Rtn6.2%5.1%4.0%7.5%-6.8%-10.4%4.6%
6M Rtn15.2%-3.6%9.6%16.6%15.3%-10.0%12.4%
12M Rtn11.4%-9.5%7.9%9.5%-6.8%-12.9%0.6%
3Y Rtn45.7%42.7%62.2%12.4%1.4%-1.1%27.5%
1M Excs Rtn12.8%11.7%12.3%10.4%10.3%0.6%11.0%
3M Excs Rtn5.3%3.9%3.9%6.5%-8.9%-11.1%3.9%
6M Excs Rtn-1.1%-19.3%-6.2%0.0%-1.3%-25.4%-3.8%
12M Excs Rtn-5.8%-26.1%-10.4%-9.0%-24.2%-32.0%-17.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-24.0%-27.9%-13.2%-55.8%-72.9%-76.5%-41.9%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,8361,728811835804
Total1,8361,728811835804


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,913,999
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.0%
Average Daily Volume2,575,240
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.34
Basic Shares Quantity389,038,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/20250.6%-1.5%-1.8%
7/22/2025-1.5%-4.7%-4.9%
4/22/20253.8%8.1%12.5%
1/21/20253.2%2.3%6.0%
10/22/20240.0%2.3%11.1%
7/23/20242.2%1.0%-6.1%
4/23/20240.1%1.5%5.2%
1/23/2024-1.4%2.6%-4.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151414
# Negative91010
Median Positive2.2%4.1%5.8%
Median Negative-1.5%-2.1%-3.7%
Max Positive7.1%8.1%21.7%
Max Negative-6.2%-6.2%-6.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-K 12/31/2021