AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Old National Bancorp (ONB):

• A regional version of U.S. Bank, focused on the Midwest.
• Like a smaller-scale Bank of America, serving primarily the Midwest.

AI Analysis | Feedback

• Deposit Accounts: Old National Bancorp accepts various deposit accounts including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings, money market, and time deposits.
• Loan Products: The company offers a wide range of loans such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate, consumer, commercial, commercial real estate, letters of credit, and lease financing.
• Electronic & Mobile Banking Services: Customers are provided with debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services.
• Wealth Management & Investment Services: ONB provides private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, wealth management, and investment services.
• Business & Treasury Management Services: The company offers cash management, treasury management, merchant, and capital markets services for commercial clients.
• Specialized Financial Services: Additional offerings include foreign currency services, health savings accounts, and community development lending and equity investment solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Old National Bancorp (ONB) sells primarily to a broad base of individual and commercial customers rather than a few specific major customers. Based on the services provided, its customer base can be categorized as:

• Individual Customers: This category includes everyday consumers who utilize the bank's services such as noninterest-bearing demand accounts, interest-bearing checking, savings and money market accounts, time deposits, home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, debit and ATM cards, online/mobile banking, and health savings accounts.
• Commercial Customers (Businesses): This category comprises various businesses that use the bank's commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, lease financing, cash management, treasury management, merchant services, and capital markets services.
• High-Net-Worth Individuals and Families: Catering to clients with substantial assets, this group benefits from specialized services like private banking, wealth management, trust services, and investment advisory.

AI Analysis | Feedback

• Fiserv, Inc. (symbol: FISV)
• Visa Inc. (symbol: V)
• Mastercard Incorporated (symbol: MA)
• Crowe LLP

AI Analysis | Feedback

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Old National Bancorp's business include significant exposure to commercial real estate, broader credit risk, and pressure on its net interest margin.

1. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Exposure: Old National Bancorp has a substantial portion of its loan portfolio tied to commercial real estate. Approximately 46.6% of its loan portfolio, or about $22.08 billion, involves commercial real estate, which creates particular vulnerability to the office property sector due to rising vacancy rates and higher interest rates. This concentration exposes the company to potential losses if market conditions for commercial properties deteriorate further.
2. Credit Risk: Beyond the specific CRE exposure, Old National Bancorp faces general credit risk, which is the possibility of financial loss stemming from borrowers failing to meet their contractual payment obligations. This risk is increasing across the federal banking system, and Old National maintains allowances for credit losses based on estimated expected losses over the life of its loan and debt security portfolios. The broader economic environment and the creditworthiness of its diverse client base directly impact this risk.
3. Net Interest Margin (NIM) Pressure and Interest Rate Risk: As a regional bank, Old National Bancorp's primary revenue source is net interest income, accounting for a significant portion of its total revenue (79.1% over the last five years). The company's net interest margin has been under pressure due to strong deposit competition and fluctuating interest rates. The uncertain direction and timing of future interest rate movements, coupled with evolving depositor behavior, pose ongoing challenges to managing funding costs and maintaining profitability.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence and growth of digital-only banks (neobanks) and specialized fintech companies offering core banking services, such as deposit accounts, payments, and various loan types, through purely digital channels. These competitors often feature lower fees, enhanced digital user experiences, and cater to customer segments that prioritize online convenience, directly challenging Old National Bancorp's traditional branch-based model and its ability to attract and retain customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Old National Bancorp (ONB) operates within several large financial markets in the U.S. region. Below are the estimated market sizes for their main products and services:

• Deposit Accounts: The total deposits in all commercial banks in the U.S. were approximately $18.12 trillion in April 2025.

• Residential Real Estate Loans and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs): The U.S. home loan market was estimated at $2.42 trillion in 2026. Total mortgage debt, including home equity loans, outstanding in the U.S. amounted to $13.17 trillion at the end of December 2025, with HELOC balances at $433 billion as of Q4 2025.

• Consumer Loans: The overall consumer lending market in the U.S. was estimated at $27 trillion as of January 2025. Total non-mortgage consumer debt in the U.S. was $4.66 trillion as of April 2023. More specifically, auto loan balances reached $1.66 trillion, and credit card balances were $1.28 trillion outstanding as of Q4 2025.

• Commercial Loans and Commercial Real Estate Loans: The U.S. commercial lending market was approximated at $2.4 trillion in 2025. Another estimate for the U.S. commercial lending market size mentions $9.7 trillion. Total commercial real estate mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. was estimated to be $498 billion in 2024.

• Wealth Management, Investment Advisory, and Trust Services: The global wealth management market was valued at $1.25 trillion in 2020 and is projected to reach $3.43 trillion by 2030, with North America holding the largest share in 2020. The North American wealth management platform market, which supports these services, was valued at $1.4 billion in 2026. The global wealth of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) reached $86.8 trillion in 2023.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:

1. Strong Loan Growth: Management anticipates continued loan growth, with expectations of 4%-6% growth for the full year 2026. This organic loan growth is consistently highlighted as a core focus, supported by a healthy demand environment.
2. Expansion of Net Interest Income and Net Interest Margin: As the largest source of Old National Bank's revenue, net interest income (NII) is projected to benefit from loan repricing dynamics and favorable interest rate conditions, including potential rate cuts. The company also anticipates stable to improving net interest margins (NIM) and enhanced securities yields resulting from portfolio restructuring.
3. Growth in Non-Interest Fee Income: Old National Bancorp is focusing on increasing its non-interest income, particularly from wealth management, mortgage banking, and capital markets services. Furthermore, the bank aims for double-digit growth in treasury and card fee income by 2026, driven by an expanded commercial client base.
4. Strategic Acquisitions and Geographic Market Expansion: The successful integration of recent acquisitions, such as the Bremer Bank partnership and the CapStar purchase, has significantly expanded ONB's balance sheet, enhanced its capital position, and broadened its multi-state commercial banking footprint across the Midwest and Mid-South. This expanded presence targets middle-market clients and supports organic growth priorities in key metropolitan areas like Chicago, Minneapolis–St. Paul, Nashville, and Indianapolis, aiming to increase commercial treasury relationships and overall market share.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

• Old National Bancorp's Board of Directors approved doubling its share repurchase program to $400 million in February 2026, which is effective until February 28, 2027. This program replaced a prior $200 million authorization.
• In February 2025, the company announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $200 million worth of shares, set to expire on February 28, 2026.
• The company repurchased 2.2 million shares of common stock in 2025, reducing equity by $50.0 million. In 2022, 3.5 million common shares were repurchased under a $200 million program, which reduced equity by $63.8 million.

Share Issuance

• In November 2024, Old National entered into a forward sale agreement to issue 19,047,619 shares of common stock for an aggregate offering amount of $400.0 million. An additional 2,857,143 shares were subject to an exercised option and additional forward sale agreement.
• The merger of equals transaction with First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. in February 2022 was an all-stock transaction.
• Through its Employee Stock Purchase Plan, Old National issued 52,000 shares in 2022 with proceeds of approximately $809,000, and 35,000 shares in 2021 with proceeds of approximately $583,000.

Outbound Investments

• Old National entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Bremer Bank in November 2024, valuing the transaction at approximately $1.4 billion. Bremer Bank had $16.5 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2024, and the acquisition was anticipated to close on May 1, 2025. This acquisition significantly contributed to Old National's asset and loan growth in 2025.
• In April 2024, Old National completed its acquisition of CapStar and its wholly owned subsidiary, CapStar Bank, in an all-stock transaction. CapStar contributed $3.1 billion in total assets and the acquisition was targeted to achieve annual cost synergies of $32 million by the end of 2025.
• Old National completed its merger of equals with First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. in February 2022, in an all-stock transaction, creating an entity with over $46 billion of assets at the time of the announcement.

Capital Expenditures

• Old National Bancorp has focused on taking significant steps to enhance its technology, including expanding its partnership with Infosys and creating an internal Transformation Factory for process improvement and automation.
• The company plans for continued investment in technology and client-facing capabilities in 2026, aiming to drive tangible book value per share growth.
• Strategic initiatives include investing in treasury management and expanding into the mid-cap space, with a focus on organic growth and technological innovation.