Olin (OLN)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $24.52 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Chemicals
Olin (OLN)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $24.52Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Water Treatment Solutions. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.2% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% Key risksOLN key risks include [1] severe headwinds in its Winchester ammunition segment facing a delayed recovery, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, and Water Treatment Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksOLN key risks include [1] severe headwinds in its Winchester ammunition segment facing a delayed recovery, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/1/2026
Olin (OLN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Outlook for Q2 2026 and Improved Epoxy Segment Performance.
Despite reporting a Q1 2026 net loss of ($0.73) per diluted share on May 7, 2026, Olin's stock gained approximately 8.5% between February 25, 2026, and June 1, 2026, largely due to a significantly more optimistic Q2 2026 outlook. The company projected Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $160 million to $200 million, signaling expected sequential improvement. A key factor in this improved outlook was the return to profitability of Olin's Epoxy business in Q1 2026, driven by lower operating costs, higher volumes, and substantial price increases, including over $1,200 per ton in North America and EUR 1,300 per metric ton in Europe.
2. Robust Growth in the Winchester Ammunition Segment.
The Winchester ammunition segment demonstrated strong performance, with sales increasing by 21% year-over-year in Q1 2026. This growth was primarily fueled by higher military project revenue, increased military sales, and stronger commercial ammunition demand. The segment also benefited from successful channel inventory destocking and pricing measures implemented to offset commodity metals and raw material cost inflation, contributing to sequential improvement.
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Olin (OLN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Outlook for Q2 2026 and Improved Epoxy Segment Performance.
Despite reporting a Q1 2026 net loss of ($0.73) per diluted share on May 7, 2026, Olin's stock gained approximately 8.5% between February 25, 2026, and June 1, 2026, largely due to a significantly more optimistic Q2 2026 outlook. The company projected Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $160 million to $200 million, signaling expected sequential improvement. A key factor in this improved outlook was the return to profitability of Olin's Epoxy business in Q1 2026, driven by lower operating costs, higher volumes, and substantial price increases, including over $1,200 per ton in North America and EUR 1,300 per metric ton in Europe.
2. Robust Growth in the Winchester Ammunition Segment.
The Winchester ammunition segment demonstrated strong performance, with sales increasing by 21% year-over-year in Q1 2026. This growth was primarily fueled by higher military project revenue, increased military sales, and stronger commercial ammunition demand. The segment also benefited from successful channel inventory destocking and pricing measures implemented to offset commodity metals and raw material cost inflation, contributing to sequential improvement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in OLN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.99 | 24.54 | -1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,781 | 6,720 | -0.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 114 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLN | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.8% | 40.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.1% change in OLN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.79 | 24.54 | 18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,787 | 6,720 | -1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | 18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 114 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLN | 18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 17.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.4% | 59.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.7% change in OLN stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.77 | 24.54 | 30.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,549 | 6,720 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.4 | 25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 114 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLN | 30.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 27.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 19.6% | 62.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.1% change in OLN stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.89 | 24.54 | -44.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,759 | 6,720 | -23.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.4 | -36.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 131 | 114 | 15.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLN | -44.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 45.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 43.2% | 66.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLN Return | 139% | -7% | 3% | -36% | -36% | 21% | 14% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -2% | 16% | -15% | -19% | 38% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLN Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 42% | 48% | 42% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLN Max Drawdown | -20% | -37% | -34% | -44% | -47% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -38% | -25% | -30% | -46% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DD, WLK, HUN, CBT, CC. See OLN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Olin's stock fell -34.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | OLN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Olin's stock fell -34.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Olin (OLN)
Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls; Epoxy; and Winchester. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment offers chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, bleach products, potassium hydroxide, chlorinated organics intermediates and solvents, and sodium hypochlorite. The Epoxy segment provides epoxy materials and precursors, including aromatics, such as acetone, bisphenol, cumene, and phenol, as well as allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, and glycerin used for the manufacturers of polymers, resins and other plastic materials, and water purification; liquid and solid epoxy resins that are used in adhesives, marines, protective coatings, composites, and flooring; and converted epoxy resins and additives for use in electrical laminates, paints and coatings, wind blades, electronics, and construction. The Winchester segment offers sporting ammunition products, including shotshells, small caliber centerfire, and rimfire ammunition products for hunters and recreational shooters, and law enforcement agencies; small caliber military ammunition products for use in infantry and mounted weapons; and industrial products comprising gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance applications in power and concrete industries, and powder-actuated tools in construction industry. The company markets its products through its sales force, as well as directly to various industrial customers, mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, other distributors, and the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Olin Corporation was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Clayton, Missouri.
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Olin is like:
- A chemical manufacturer similar to a focused Dow Chemical that also owns the iconic Winchester ammunition brand.
- Imagine a fundamental industrial chemicals supplier like LyondellBasell combined with the famous Winchester ammunition business.
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- Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls: Manufactures and distributes foundational chemicals such as chlorine, caustic soda, and a range of chlorinated organic intermediates and solvents.
- Epoxy Materials and Resins: Provides raw materials and finished epoxy resins used in polymers, coatings, adhesives, and electronics applications.
- Sporting Ammunition: Offers a variety of shotshells, centerfire, and rimfire ammunition for hunting, recreational shooting, and law enforcement.
- Military Ammunition: Supplies small caliber ammunition for infantry and mounted weapons to military customers.
- Industrial Ammunition: Produces specialized gauge loads and powder-actuated tool loads for maintenance and construction applications.
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Olin Corporation (OLN) primarily sells its products to other companies and governmental entities. The background description does not list specific customer company names, but rather categories of customers. Based on the provided information, Olin's major customer categories include:
- Industrial and Manufacturing Companies: This broad category encompasses a wide range of businesses that use Olin's chemical and epoxy products as raw materials or components. This includes manufacturers of polymers, resins, plastic materials, water purification systems, adhesives, marine products, protective coatings, composites, flooring, electrical laminates, paints, wind blades, electronics, and various construction materials. This category also includes industrial users for applications in power, concrete, and maintenance industries.
- Retail and Distribution Channels: For its Winchester ammunition products, Olin sells to mass merchants, retailers, wholesalers, and other distributors. These businesses then supply the products to end-users such as hunters and recreational shooters.
- Governmental and Public Sector Entities: Olin supplies small caliber military ammunition to the U.S. Government and its prime contractors. Additionally, the company provides sporting ammunition products to law enforcement agencies.
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Kenneth T. Lane, President and Chief Executive Officer
Kenneth T. Lane was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer and a Director of Olin, effective March 18, 2024. Prior to joining Olin, Mr. Lane served as Executive Vice President, Global Olefins and Polyolefins (O&P) of LyondellBasell, one of the world's largest plastic, chemicals, and refining companies, where he also held the position of interim CEO in early 2022. Before LyondellBasell (which he joined in July 2019), he spent 13 years at BASF, holding senior executive positions in the Global Polyurethanes Division and serving as President of the Monomers Division and President of BASF Catalysts. Earlier in his career, he held various operations, strategy, and commercial roles at BP Chemicals and Amoco Chemical Corporation. Mr. Lane has served in leadership capacities in the United States, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, China, and Belgium.
Todd Slater, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Todd Slater serves as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, a role he was appointed to in 2022. He is responsible for leading the company's Audit, Taxes, Investor Relations, Financial Planning & Analysis, and Environmental Remediation departments. Mr. Slater joined Olin in 2002 following Olin's acquisition of Chase Brass, where he had been Controller, Treasurer, and Corporate Secretary, eventually becoming Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At Olin, he served as Vice President & Financial Officer for the Metals Group, Operations Controller, and Vice President and Controller before becoming Vice President and CFO in 2014. He began his career at Price Waterhouse and is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA).
Angela Castle, Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Angela Castle holds the position of Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Olin Corporation.
Deon Carter, Vice President and President, Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls
Deon Carter is the Vice President and President of the Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls segment for Olin Corporation.
Brett Flaugher, Vice President and President, Winchester
Brett Flaugher serves as the Vice President and President of the Winchester segment at Olin Corporation.
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The key risks to Olin Corporation's business include:
- Volatility in commodity chemical prices and raw material costs: Olin's Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls and Epoxy segments produce and sell commodity chemicals. The profitability of these segments is highly susceptible to fluctuations in global chemical prices and the cost and availability of key raw materials, such as salt, energy, aromatics, and glycerin. These market dynamics are often cyclical and can significantly impact Olin's financial performance.
- Regulatory and societal risks impacting the ammunition business: The Winchester segment, which manufactures sporting and military ammunition, faces significant risks related to governmental regulations concerning firearm and ammunition sales. Changes in gun control laws, import/export restrictions, and evolving public sentiment or social pressures against firearm ownership and usage could lead to decreased demand for its products and negatively impact the segment's revenue and profitability.
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- The increasing development and adoption of bio-based resins and other sustainable chemical alternatives pose an emerging threat to Olin's Epoxy segment, as these alternatives aim to replace petroleum-derived materials due to environmental concerns and regulatory pressures.
- Increased gun control legislation at federal, state, and local levels presents an ongoing emerging threat to Olin's Winchester segment by potentially restricting the sale and use of ammunition, thereby reducing market demand.
- Growing environmental and health concerns regarding lead, coupled with increasing regulatory and legislative pressures, represent an emerging threat to Olin's Winchester segment, driving the demand for and potential mandates for lead-free ammunition, which could necessitate significant product adaptation and R&D investment.
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Olin Corporation (OLN) operates in several distinct markets, with the addressable market sizes for its main products varying by chemical and ammunition type.
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls Segment
- Chlor Alkali Market: The global chlor-alkali market was valued at approximately USD 73.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 107.6 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.15% during 2025-2033. Another estimate places the global market revenue at US$ 97.5 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$ 164.9 billion by 2034. The U.S. chlor alkali market is projected to reach USD 9.66 billion by 2032. The Asia Pacific region is a dominant market for chlor-alkali products, with China holding a significant share.
- Caustic Soda: The global caustic soda market size was estimated at USD 47.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 71.0 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2025 to 2033. Asia Pacific held the largest share of this market in 2024, at 57.3%.
- Vinyl Chloride Monomers (VCM): The global vinyl chloride monomer market size was valued at USD 91 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 187.8 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.4%. Another report states the global market size was USD 99.19 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 190.06 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.49%. The U.S. vinyl chloride monomer market alone was valued at over USD 10.9 billion in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region is a leading consumer of VCM.
- Ethylene Dichloride (EDC): The global ethylene dichloride market size was USD 21.49 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 34.34 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 4.8% between 2026 and 2035. North America held the largest revenue share in the ethylene dichloride market in 2024, at 34.45%.
Epoxy Segment
- Epoxy Resins: The global epoxy resin market size was valued at USD 12.33 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 21.22 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.58% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 14.32 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 23.89 billion by 2034 (CAGR of 5.70%). Asia Pacific consistently holds the largest share of the global epoxy resin market, accounting for 59.81% in 2025 and 68.9% in 2025.
Winchester Segment
- Small Caliber Ammunition: The global small caliber ammunition market size was estimated at USD 6.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 9.35 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.35% from 2025 to 2034. Another report indicates a global market size of USD 13.57 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to USD 19.28 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 3.57% over the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. North America dominated the global small caliber ammunition market, holding approximately 40% in 2024 and 43% in 2025. The U.S. small caliber ammunition market is valued at USD 4.8 billion. The overall U.S. ammunition market (which includes small caliber) was estimated at USD 7.70 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow to USD 9.04 billion by 2030.
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Olin Corporation (OLN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several strategic initiatives across its chemical and ammunition segments:
- Epoxy Market Optimization and Expansion into Value-Added Specialties: Olin anticipates increased optimism and improved performance in its Epoxy segment. The company is actively pursuing a product mix shift towards higher-value specialties, including a substantial $2.1 billion expansion of its Epoxy division to cater to growing demand from the electric vehicle and aerospace industries. This expansion, along with new agreements and operational efficiencies, is expected to contribute to future revenue and EBITDA improvements. Growth in its formulated solutions portfolio is also expected to support this segment.
- Strategic Cost Reduction Initiatives (Beyond250 Program): Olin's "Beyond250 structural cost reduction program" aims to identify and eliminate inefficiencies across its operations. The company realized $44 million in structural cost savings in 2025 and targets an additional $100 million to $120 million in 2026 through this program. These cost reductions are expected to enhance net margins and improve earnings quality, indirectly supporting revenue growth by potentially allowing for more competitive pricing and freeing up capital for strategic investments.
- Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV) Segment Recovery and Optimization: The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment is projected to benefit from a market recovery and ongoing optimization efforts. The company observed a 6.4% revenue increase in this segment in Q2 2025 due to higher volumes. Healthy global caustic soda demand, driven by industries such as alumina, water treatment, and pulp and paper, coupled with low inventories and planned industry turnarounds, is expected to tighten caustic supply and support pricing momentum. A new supply agreement in Stade, Germany, starting in January 2026, is also anticipated to provide an annual adjusted EBITDA benefit of approximately $40 million.
- Strong Military Ammunition Demand and Strategic Acquisitions in the Winchester Segment: The Winchester segment is poised for continued revenue growth, primarily driven by robust demand for military and project-related ammunition. In Q2 2025, the segment's sales were bolstered by increased military revenue. Olin also completed a significant acquisition of small caliber ammunition assets in 2025, further strengthening its position in this market.
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Share Repurchases
- Olin announced a significant increase in its share repurchase authorization to $2.0 billion in December 2024, which included a new $1.3 billion program.
- In November 2021, Olin's Board of Directors approved a $1.0 billion share repurchase program.
- The company repurchased approximately $711.3 million in shares in 2023, $300.3 million in 2024, and $50.5 million in 2025. As of December 31, 2025, approximately $1.9 billion remained available under its share repurchase authorizations.
Share Issuance
- No significant dollar amounts of share issuances were explicitly reported in the provided information.
Inbound Investments
- No significant large investments made in Olin by third-parties were explicitly reported in the provided information.
Outbound Investments
- Olin completed the acquisition of AMMO, Inc.'s Manitowoc, WI small caliber assets for $55.8 million into its Winchester segment.
- The company funded an acquisition during the second quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Olin is targeting approximately $200 million in capital expenditures for 2026, with a primary focus on sustaining capital expenditures.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 5-Day Rally Sends Olin Stock Up 22% | 03/28/2026 | |
| How Low Can OLN Really Go In A Market Crash? | 03/16/2026 | |
| Olin Stock Jumps 6.1% In A Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 02/28/2026 | |
| Does Olin Stock Lead the Pack? | 02/28/2026 | |
| Olin Earnings Notes | 12/24/2025 | |
| Olin Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| With OLN Up 13% in a Week, Is It Time to Compare It Against UNH? | 08/18/2025 | |
| With OLN Up 13% in a Week, Is It Time to Compare It Against B? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than OLN Stock: Pay Less Than Olin To Get More From UNH, MRK | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Olin Stock Rockets 22% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 03/28/2026 | |
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/24/2026 | |
| The Bear Case: How OLN Behaves During Market Shocks | 03/14/2026 | |
| Is Olin Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | 02/28/2026 | |
| Olin Stock To $18? | 02/28/2026 |
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.70 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,980 |
| Op Inc LTM | -19 |
| FCF LTM | 80 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 99 |
| CFO LTM | 405 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 631 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -92.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -43.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/Op Inc | -12.2 |
| P/EBIT | -17.6 |
| P/E | -8.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | -3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -27.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls | 3,630 | 3,995 | 5,085 | 4,141 | 2,960 |
| Winchester | 1,684 | 1,509 | 1,601 | 1,584 | 928 |
| Epoxy | 1,226 | 1,329 | 2,690 | 3,186 | 1,870 |
| Corporate/Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 6,540 | 6,833 | 9,376 | 8,911 | 5,758 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls | 5,347 | 5,650 | 5,782 | 6,185 | 6,166 |
| Epoxy | 960 | 979 | 1,202 | 1,307 | 1,153 |
| Winchester | 745 | 684 | 595 | 541 | 468 |
| Corporate/Other | 527 | 400 | 465 | 485 | 484 |
| Total | 7,579 | 7,713 | 8,044 | 8,518 | 8,271 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $24.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.32 | $23.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.2% | 3.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.4% | 56.0% |
| Downside Capture | 36.37 | 121.62 |
| Upside Capture | 44.07 | 118.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 2.4% | 27.4% |
OLN Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.25 | -0.08 | 0.15 | 0.75 | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| Up Beta | -0.32 | -1.99 | -0.77 | 0.44 | 1.22 | 1.78 |
| Down Beta | 2.62 | 3.66 | -0.05 | 0.98 | 1.58 | 1.37 |
| Up Capture | 103% | -7% | 55% | 97% | 141% | 81% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 37 | 67 | 126 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 570% | 244% | 73% | 66% | 117% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 26 | 57 | 124 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLN | 26.2% | 55.8% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 17.3% | 16.9% | 0.78 | 62.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.3% | 12.1% | 1.57 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.6% | 26.9% | 0.88 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 36.9% | 19.0% | 1.52 | 13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.63 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.5% | -1.16 | 24.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLN | -11.1% | 44.9% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.1% | 18.9% | 0.17 | 66.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.1% | 0.78 | 11.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.4% | 0.38 | 25.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.3% | 54.6% | 0.40 | 23.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLN | 3.8% | 47.1% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.1% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 65.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 52.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 28.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.9% | 1.03 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 0.3% | 4.4% | |
| 1/29/2026 | -6.8% | 4.8% | 13.7% |
| 10/27/2025 | -12.4% | -16.5% | -15.5% |
| 7/28/2025 | 5.1% | -10.9% | 11.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.5% | -1.1% | -10.6% |
| 1/30/2025 | -8.9% | -11.4% | -25.7% |
| 12/12/2024 | -0.1% | -10.6% | -14.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -8.0% | -8.9% | -4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 5.7% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -8.2% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 20.5% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.4% | -16.5% | -25.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 160.00 Mil | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Structural Cost Savings | 10.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/19/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter, Deon | VP & President CAPV | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 23.73 | 6,500 | 154,226 | 8,471 | Form |
| 2 | Castle, Angela M | VP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 24.25 | 2,379 | 57,700 | 37,049 | Form |
| 3 | Sumner, R Nichole | VP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 22.49 | 4,750 | 106,846 | 557,196 | Form |
| 4 | Slater, Todd A | VP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 22.48 | 92,250 | 2,073,918 | 995,728 | Form |
| 5 | Vermillion, Teresa M | VP & Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 20.86 | 4,500 | 93,850 | 358,695 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Diversified Chemicals Resources |
| Chemical Engineering |
| Chemistry World |
| American Chemistry Council |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/6/2026