Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.575 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.575Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -165 Mil | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 695%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 431% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 161% | ||
| Key risksOLMA key risks include [1] binary Phase 3 results for its lead drug palazestrant, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -165 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 695%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 431% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 161% |
| Key risksOLMA key risks include [1] binary Phase 3 results for its lead drug palazestrant, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OLMA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Positive Clinical Trial Data for Palazestrant. Olema Pharmaceuticals announced updated data on October 18, 2025, from its Phase 1b/2 trial of palazestrant in combination with ribociclib for advanced breast cancer. This data showed a median progression-free survival of 15.5 months across all patients, demonstrating strong activity and a consistent safety profile. These findings were also presented at the ESMO Congress 2025.
2. Advancement of Pivotal Phase 3 Trials. In the second quarter of 2025, Olema selected a 90 mg once-daily dose of palazestrant for the Part 2 of the OPERA-01 Phase 3 monotherapy trial and for the OPERA-02 Phase 3 trial in combination with ribociclib. The OPERA-02 trial, focusing on frontline ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, was on track to initiate in Q3 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLMA Return | � | -81% | -74% | 473% | -58% | 488% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -39% | -40% | -32% | -25% | 2% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLMA Win Rate | 0% | 25% | 33% | 75% | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 35% | 47% | 42% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLMA Max Drawdown | � | -82% | -78% | 0% | -60% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -49% | -56% | -65% | -48% | -65% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ARVN, VERU, ZYME, KPTI, RPTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLMA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2529.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Olema Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -96.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -96.2% loss requires a 2529.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OLMA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Olema Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 76 |
| Op Inc LTM | -91 |
| FCF LTM | -80 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -98 |
| CFO LTM | -80 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -98 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 93.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 40.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -73.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -150.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -104.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -158.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -105.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -160.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | -3.4 |
| P/E | -3.3 |
| P/CFO | -1.5 |
| Total Yield | -56.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -497.7% |
| D/E | 1.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 39.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -76.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 36.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 43.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -145.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.2% | 0.6% | 267.4% |
| 8/11/2025 | 16.2% | 26.0% | 70.9% |
| 3/18/2025 | -0.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% |
| 11/12/2024 | -0.5% | -24.4% | -41.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -9.9% | -10.1% | -15.1% |
| 3/11/2024 | -6.6% | -14.8% | -15.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | 3.1% | -4.5% | -29.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | 12.1% | 14.3% | 21.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 3.2% | 46.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -12.4% | -21.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.0% | 267.4% |
| Max Negative | -26.7% | -36.7% | -61.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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