Arvinas (ARVN)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $9.34 | Market Cap: $605.2 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arvinas (ARVN)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $9.34Market Cap: $605.2 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -93% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -75% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -66% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% Key risksARVN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the success of lead asset vepdegestrant, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -93% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -75% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -66% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Key risksARVN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the success of lead asset vepdegestrant, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Arvinas (ARVN) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. FDA approval of VEPPANU and strategic licensing deal generated substantial revenue.
Arvinas received FDA approval for VEPPANU (vepdegestrant) in May 2026 as the first PROTAC degrader for ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. This approval was immediately followed by a licensing agreement with Rigel Pharmaceuticals for the exclusive global development, manufacturing, and commercialization rights. This deal contributed significantly to Arvinas's fiscal Q2 2026 revenue, which ended June 30, 2026, including a $50.0 million milestone payment from Pfizer and $62.5 million from the Rigel license agreement.
2. Exceptional fiscal Q2 2026 financial results significantly surpassed analyst expectations.
On August 4, 2026, Arvinas reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, dramatically exceeding the consensus estimate of -$0.37. The company's revenue for the quarter was $249.70 million, a substantial increase of 1014.7% year-over-year and well above the consensus estimate of $60.71 million. This strong financial performance was primarily driven by the aforementioned VEPPANU-related agreements.
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Arvinas (ARVN) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. FDA approval of VEPPANU and strategic licensing deal generated substantial revenue.
Arvinas received FDA approval for VEPPANU (vepdegestrant) in May 2026 as the first PROTAC degrader for ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. This approval was immediately followed by a licensing agreement with Rigel Pharmaceuticals for the exclusive global development, manufacturing, and commercialization rights. This deal contributed significantly to Arvinas's fiscal Q2 2026 revenue, which ended June 30, 2026, including a $50.0 million milestone payment from Pfizer and $62.5 million from the Rigel license agreement.
2. Exceptional fiscal Q2 2026 financial results significantly surpassed analyst expectations.
On August 4, 2026, Arvinas reported fiscal Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, dramatically exceeding the consensus estimate of -$0.37. The company's revenue for the quarter was $249.70 million, a substantial increase of 1014.7% year-over-year and well above the consensus estimate of $60.71 million. This strong financial performance was primarily driven by the aforementioned VEPPANU-related agreements.
3. Extended cash runway provides financial stability and supports ongoing pipeline development.
Following the robust fiscal Q2 2026 results, Arvinas reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $567.9 million as of June 30, 2026. The company reiterated that these cash resources are expected to fund its planned operating expenses and capital expenditures into the second half of 2028, providing a stable financial outlook for its ongoing clinical programs.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and price targets supported stock valuation.
As of late August 2026, Wall Street analysts maintained a "Buy" consensus rating for Arvinas. The average analyst price target ranged from approximately $13.93 to $15.56, representing a significant potential upside from the stock's trading price during the period, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects and drug pipeline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in ARVN stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 254.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.98 | 9.31 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 89 | 317 | 254.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.4 | 1.9 | -70.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 65 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARVN | 3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 15.9% | 18.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.8% change in ARVN stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.27 | 9.31 | -29.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 263 | 317 | 20.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 1.9 | -41.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 65 | 65 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARVN | -29.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.6% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.4% change in ARVN stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.73 | 9.31 | 20.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 373 | 317 | -15.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.9 | 25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 65 | 12.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARVN | 20.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.7% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -67.0% change in ARVN stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.21 | 9.31 | -67.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158 | 317 | 100.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.5 | 1.9 | -80.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 65 | -17.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -67.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ARVN | -67.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.7% | 26.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 36.2% | 31.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARVN Return | -3% | -58% | 20% | -53% | -38% | -19% | -89% |
| Peers Return | -19% | -68% | 88% | 14% | 100% | 24% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARVN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 51% | 33% | 45% | 40% | 52% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARVN Max Drawdown | -39% | -60% | -62% | -66% | -70% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -61% | -77% | -66% | -52% | -57% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KYMR, NRIX, OLMA, GLUE, CCCC. See ARVN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Arvinas's stock fell -9.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 10.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ARVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Arvinas's stock fell -9.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 10.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arvinas (ARVN)
Arvinas, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapies. The company specializes in a novel approach to drug development, utilizing its proprietary Proteolysis Targeting Chimera (PROTAC) technology to selectively degrade and remove disease-causing proteins from the body. This unique mechanism aims to offer new treatment options for conditions where traditional drug approaches may fall short.
Arvinas's primary focus is on developing treatments for advanced cancers. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide and ARV-766, both investigational PROTAC protein degraders targeting the androgen receptor for men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Another key candidate, ARV-471, is a PROTAC protein degrader designed to target the estrogen receptor for patients battling metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer. Through these product candidates, Arvinas aims to serve oncology patients with significant unmet medical needs.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Arvinas (ARVN):
- Arvinas is like Genentech for 'destroyer' drugs, building therapies that eliminate disease-causing proteins instead of just blocking them.
- Think of Arvinas as an Amgen specializing in 'protein shredders' – medicines designed to completely remove harmful proteins from the body.
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- Bavdegalutamide: A PROTAC protein degrader targeting the androgen receptor for treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.
- ARV-471: A PROTAC protein degrader targeting the estrogen receptor for treating metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer.
- ARV-766: An orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degrader for treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. As such, it does not currently sell therapies directly to individual patients. Its primary business activities involve the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies, often through collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies.
Based on the provided information, the major customers or revenue-generating partners for Arvinas are the pharmaceutical companies with whom it has collaborations. These partners provide funding, expertise, and potential pathways for commercialization. They are:
- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE)
- Genentech, Inc. (a subsidiary of F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd.)
- F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd. (SIX: ROG)
- Bayer AG (XTRA: BAYN)
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Randy Teel, Ph.D. - President and Chief Executive Officer
Randy Teel, Ph.D., was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Arvinas on February 12, 2026. He joined Arvinas in 2018 and brings 20 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry. Prior to his current role, Dr. Teel served as Arvinas' Chief Business Officer since April 2024, where he oversaw corporate strategy, business development, corporate communications, and investor relations. He also served as the company's interim Chief Financial Officer from February 2024 to June 2024. His previous roles at Arvinas include Senior Vice President, Corporate and Business Development, and Vice President of Corporate Development.
Andrew Saik - Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Andrew Saik was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Arvinas effective June 24, 2024. He has over 20 years of experience in biopharma finance, having participated in more than 40 successful mergers and acquisition transactions. Mr. Saik has led the strategic transformation of three companies, including executing two inversion transactions. Before joining Arvinas, he served as Chief Financial Officer at Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., where he recapitalized the balance sheet by selling the international division for $450 million and repurchasing $390 million in convertible debt. Prior to Intercept, he was Chief Financial Officer of Vyne Therapeutics Inc., where he built out the finance department, renegotiated debt obligations, and helped raise over $135 million. His past experience also includes CFO positions at PDS Biotechnology, Vertice Pharma, and Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, and Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer at Endo Health Solutions.
Angela M. Cacace, Ph.D. - Chief Scientific Officer
Angela M. Cacace, Ph.D., serves as Chief Scientific Officer at Arvinas, a position she was promoted to on June 17, 2024. She has three decades of drug discovery experience in neuroscience and oncology research. At Arvinas, Dr. Cacace has played a key role in evolving the PROTAC Discovery Engine and led the Neuroscience team in advancing ARV-102 into clinical development. Prior to Arvinas, she was the Vice President of Biology at Fulcrum Therapeutics, where she established the biology platform and delivered initial development candidates. Dr. Cacace also held various leadership roles over 19 years at Bristol Myers Squibb, including Director of Neuroscience and Genetically Defined Diseases. Earlier in her career, as a Senior Principal Scientist in Cancer Biology at Pfizer, her team discovered a novel anti-angiogenic antibody development candidate.
Noah Berkowitz, M.D., Ph.D. - Chief Medical Officer
Noah Berkowitz, M.D., Ph.D., was appointed Chief Medical Officer of Arvinas on March 21, 2024. He brings over 20 years of experience in advancing programs through all stages of development, as well as in leading clinical development, regulatory, and medical affairs. Dr. Berkowitz joined Arvinas from Bristol-Myers Squibb, where he served as Senior Vice President, Development Unit Head, Hematology. Before his tenure at Bristol-Myers, he held roles of increasing responsibility at Novartis in oncology, rare diseases, and hematology, including Vice President and Clinical Development Head for Hematology.
Ian Taylor, Ph.D. - President of Research and Development
Ian Taylor, Ph.D., was promoted to President of Research and Development at Arvinas on June 17, 2024. He previously served as the Chief Scientific Officer of the company. Dr. Taylor joined Arvinas in 2016 as Vice President of Pharmacology and Translational Medicine. Prior to Arvinas, he spent nearly a decade at Pfizer Oncology, serving as an Early Development Team Leader, where he led cross-functional drug development teams for Phase 1 and 2 clinical trials. He also held the position of Senior Director of Translational Oncology at Pfizer. Earlier in his career, Dr. Taylor worked at Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals, where he was Vice President of Cancer Biology, leading aspects of small molecule drug discovery for cancer therapeutics.
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Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins, faces several key risks inherent to its business model. These risks primarily revolve around the uncertain nature of drug development, commercialization challenges, and financial sustainability as a pre-profit company.
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval: As a clinical-stage company, Arvinas's future and value are critically dependent on the successful outcomes of its drug candidates in clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals. The PROTAC (PROteolysis TArgeting Chimera) protein degrader technology is still relatively new, and the success of its lead candidates, such as Bavdegalutamide (for prostate cancer) and Vepdegestrant (ARV-471 for breast cancer), is not guaranteed. For instance, vepdegestrant, despite showing positive results in ESR1-mutated breast cancer patients, did not demonstrate broad benefit in the overall patient population during its Phase 3 trial, leading to Pfizer scaling back its involvement and Arvinas seeking a new commercialization partner. Clinical trial failures, delays, or unexpected safety issues could significantly impact the company's prospects.
- Commercialization Challenges and Market Competition: Even if Arvinas's drugs secure regulatory approval, the company faces substantial hurdles in commercialization, including intense competition from established pharmaceutical companies. The market for vepdegestrant, for example, may be narrower than initially anticipated, potentially limited to a niche ESR1-mutant segment, which could restrict its market share and pricing power. Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding Arvinas's ability to secure robust and attractive partnerships for the commercialization of its lead assets, particularly following the restructuring of its collaboration with Pfizer for vepdegestrant.
- Financial and Funding Risk (Cash Burn and Path to Profitability): Arvinas is currently unprofitable and operates with a significant cash burn due to extensive research and development expenses for its multiple parallel development programs. While the company has a strong cash position providing a long operational runway, consistent unprofitability and substantial cash consumption inherently create long-term financing risks and potential for future dilution if additional funding is required. The company's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 also suggests a potential risk of financial instability.
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Arvinas, Inc. (symbol: ARVN) develops therapies for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) and metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer. The addressable markets for their main products are substantial and span several regions.
Bavdegalutamide and ARV-766 (Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer - mCRPC)
For mCRPC, Arvinas has two lead product candidates: Bavdegalutamide and ARV-766. The market for mCRPC is significant globally and in key regions.
- The global metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer therapeutics market was valued at approximately USD 21.04 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 91.85 billion by 2034. Other estimates for the global market include USD 10.66 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 19.26 billion by 2032, and USD 12.92 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 29.79 billion by 2034.
- Across the seven major markets (7MM), which include the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), the United Kingdom, and Japan, the mCRPC market size was estimated at nearly USD 6.8 billion in 2023. This market is projected to grow positively through 2034. Another source indicates the 7MM market reached USD 7,275.4 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 12,840.0 million by 2035.
- Specifically in the United States, the mCRPC market was valued at approximately USD 4.4 billion in 2023, with projections for steady growth during the 2024–2034 forecast period. The North American market size for mCRPC therapeutics was valued at USD 8.85 billion in 2024.
ARV-471 (Metastatic ER Positive/HER2 Negative Breast Cancer)
ARV-471 targets the estrogen receptor protein for the treatment of patients with metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer.
- The total market size for HR+/HER2- breast cancer in the seven major markets (7MM) was nearly USD 10 billion in 2023, with expectations for growth by 2034.
- In the United States, the market size for ER+/HER2− Breast Cancer was USD 6,759 million in 2022 and is projected to grow during the forecast period (2026-2036). The United States accounted for the highest market share for HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer in the 7MM, at nearly USD 7,500 million in 2023.
- More broadly, the global estrogen receptor positive breast cancer treatment market size was estimated at USD 19.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 33.7 billion by 2030.
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For Arvinas (ARVN), expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years are primarily centered around the advancement and potential commercialization of its clinical pipeline and the realization of benefits from its strategic collaborations.
- Commercialization and Sales of Vepdegestrant (ARV-471): The most immediate and significant potential revenue driver is the approval and subsequent commercial launch of vepdegestrant (ARV-471), an estrogen receptor protein degrader for ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. The FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for vepdegestrant, with a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date set for June 5, 2026. Arvinas, in collaboration with Pfizer, is actively seeking a third-party commercialization partner to maximize its market potential. Successful approval and launch would generate product sales and/or royalties.
- Advancement of ARV-766 into Late-Stage Clinical Development: Arvinas is prioritizing the progression of ARV-766, a PROTAC androgen receptor degrader for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The company believes ARV-766 has the potential to be a first- and best-in-class treatment and is prioritizing the initiation of a Phase 3 clinical trial in mCRPC. Significant progress in late-stage clinical trials and potential regulatory discussions within the next 2-3 years could trigger substantial milestone payments from existing or future partnerships, laying the groundwork for eventual product revenue.
- Positive Clinical Data and New Collaboration Milestones from Emerging Pipeline Programs: Arvinas has a robust early-stage pipeline, including ARV-102 (LRRK2 degrader for Parkinson's disease), ARV-806 (KRAS G12D degrader), ARV-393 (BCL6 degrader for lymphoma), and ARV-027 (polyQ AR degrader). The company expects multiple data readouts from these Phase 1 programs throughout 2026. Strong positive clinical data could lead to new or expanded strategic collaborations, resulting in upfront payments, research funding, and development milestones, thereby driving revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In September 2025, Arvinas's board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million of its common stock.
- Approximately $91.9 million was used for common share buybacks in 2025 under this program.
Share Issuance
- In July 2021, Pfizer made a $350 million equity investment in Arvinas as part of their global collaboration for ARV-471 (vepdegestrant).
- In November 2023, Arvinas completed an oversubscribed $350 million private placement, issuing common stock and pre-funded warrants.
Inbound Investments
- A global collaboration with Pfizer for ARV-471 (vepdegestrant) in July 2021 included a $650 million upfront payment to Arvinas.
- Pfizer also made a $350 million equity investment in Arvinas in July 2021 as part of the collaboration.
- Arvinas received a $20 million milestone payment from Novartis in the third quarter of 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Arvinas's capital expenditures were $6.8 million in 2022, $2.9 million in 2023, and $1.8 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures were $1.9 million in 2025.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on maintaining existing and expanding property, plant, and equipment.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 15.1% | 97.6% | 144.4% | CAH 417% · MCK 358% · COR 184% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 32.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | OSCR 77% · HQY 52% · ELV 18% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 20.7% | 49.5% | -0.8% | HIMS 239% · RDNT 137% · DGX 69% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 3.9% | -6.1% | -18.8% | NHC 249% · THC 247% · ENSG 110% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -2.1% | -6.6% | -24.5% | POCI 10825% · UFPT 314% · GKOS 205% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 35.0% | -15.0% | -34.8% | LNTH 272% · HAE 59% · MMSI 21% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | 2.2% | 0.0% | -35.6% | LQDA 2405% · INDV 1144% · ETON 1050% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | 0.8% | -31.0% | -73.5% | SNWV 1716% · MEDP 204% · AXGN 171% |
| Biotechnology ← | 363 | 7.2% | -26.2% | -76.6% | BRTX 71750% · DNTH 1554% · CELZ 1414% |
| Health Care Technology | 20 | -25.8% | -58.7% | -78.2% | SPOK 68% · HSTM 0% · VEEV -10% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Arvinas Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Arvinas Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Arvinas (ARVN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARVN Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Down 24% In A Month, Will Arvinas Stock Rebound? | 06/01/2022 | |
| Will Arvinas Stock Rebound After A 12% Drop In A Month? | 10/18/2021 | |
| Down Over 20% In A Month Can Arvinas Stock Rebound? | 04/14/2021 | |
| What’s Next For Arvinas After A Solid 2x Increase? | 01/13/2021 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 36 |
| Op Inc LTM | -201 |
| FCF LTM | -187 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -169 |
| CFO LTM | -186 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -163 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -15.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 43.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -25.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -29.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -329.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -410.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 7.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -225.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -302.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -226.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -316.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development and commercialization of therapies that degrade disease-causing proteins | 263 | 263 | 78 | 131 | 54 |
| Total | 263 | 263 | 78 | 131 | 54 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development and commercialization of therapies that degrade disease-causing proteins | -81 | -199 | -367 |
| Total | -81 | -199 | -367 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/27/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -32.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.61 | $10.56 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.1% | -11.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.8% | 54.6% |
| Downside Capture | 47.14 | 101.92 |
| Upside Capture | 127.19 | 98.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.7% | 27.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.40 | 1.70 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Up Beta | 4.40 | 2.72 | 2.41 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 5.68 | 1.63 | 0.82 | 1.55 | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 327% | 167% | 76% | 51% | 99% | 97% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 31 | 52 | 115 | 356 |
| Down Capture | 156% | 91% | 73% | 154% | 100% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 30 | 70 | 127 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARVN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARVN | 17.9% | 54.6% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.3% | 16.0% | 1.37 | 26.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.8% | 1.23 | 26.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.1% | 29.1% | 0.77 | 17.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 20.4% | 1.64 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.7% | 13.6% | 0.50 | 13.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.0% | 43.5% | -0.73 | 26.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARVN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARVN | -35.3% | 68.4% | -0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.8% | 15.1% | 0.26 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 34.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.6% | 18.8% | 0.85 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | 2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.0% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.5% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 19.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ARVN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARVN | -5.2% | 77.0% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.8% | 16.7% | 0.53 | 31.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 31.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.3% | 0.63 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 28.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 13.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 15.1% |
| 5/12/2026 | -0.9% | -9.1% | -27.7% |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.6% | 8.9% | -16.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.3% | 17.5% | 34.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.5% | -10.8% | 0.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -24.8% | -30.7% | -25.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -6.8% | -1.7% | -52.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | -2.2% | -5.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 10.2% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -8.0% | -16.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 28.6% | 79.0% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -30.7% | -52.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 15.1% |
| 5/12/2026 | -0.9% | -9.1% | -27.7% |
| 2/24/2026 | 0.6% | 8.9% | -16.3% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.3% | 17.5% | 34.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.5% | -10.8% | 0.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -24.8% | -30.7% | -25.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -6.8% | -1.7% | -52.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | -2.2% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2024 | -2.5% | -10.3% | -7.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | 6.4% | -2.1% | -13.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -1.6% | -4.8% | -16.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.1% | -2.0% | 79.0% |
| 8/8/2023 | 4.1% | 7.5% | 14.1% |
| 5/5/2023 | 7.6% | -2.6% | -1.5% |
| 2/23/2023 | -4.2% | -11.1% | -23.4% |
| 11/9/2022 | -8.4% | 28.6% | -16.5% |
| 8/5/2022 | 0.7% | -1.7% | -22.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -7.2% | -17.8% | -13.1% |
| 2/28/2022 | 1.4% | -5.5% | 4.3% |
| 11/3/2021 | 3.1% | -6.8% | -20.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | -6.3% | -11.2% | -15.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | -1.2% | -9.9% | 1.2% |
| 3/1/2021 | 0.3% | -10.6% | -19.1% |
| 11/5/2020 | -2.3% | 3.2% | 18.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 10.2% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -8.0% | -16.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 28.6% | 79.0% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -30.7% | -52.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/16/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | Reported | |||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | Reported | |||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | Reported | |||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | Reported | Affirmed | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/24/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 8.16 | 5,696 | 46,474 | 1,529,258 | Form |
| 2 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 7.59 | 2,576 | 19,565 | 1,370,062 | Form |
| 3 | Teel, Randy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 9.04 | 2,209 | 19,962 | 2,575,484 | Form |
| 4 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 11,139 | 110,693 | 1,919,190 | Form |
| 5 | Loomis, David K | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 1,919 | 19,070 | 399,414 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 8.16 | 5,696 | 46,474 | 1,529,258 | Form |
| 2 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 7.59 | 2,576 | 19,565 | 1,370,062 | Form |
| 3 | Teel, Randy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 9.04 | 2,209 | 19,962 | 2,575,484 | Form |
| 4 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 11,139 | 110,693 | 1,919,190 | Form |
| 5 | Loomis, David K | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 1,919 | 19,070 | 399,414 | Form |
| 6 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 9,657 | 95,965 | 1,818,206 | Form |
| 7 | Berkowitz, Noah | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 11,108 | 110,385 | 1,901,969 | Form |
| 8 | Teel, Randy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 9.94 | 9,657 | 95,965 | 2,854,200 | Form |
| 9 | Berkowitz, Noah | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 11.10 | 6,435 | 71,431 | 2,247,864 | Form |
| 10 | Morrison, Briggs | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 13.40 | 20,000 | 268,070 | 1,287,017 | Form | |
| 11 | Houston, John G | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 13.21 | 35,297 | 466,154 | 14,820,229 | Form | |
| 12 | Loomis, David K | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 12.16 | 1,108 | 13,473 | 361,055 | Form |
| 13 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 12.16 | 3,609 | 43,885 | 1,795,096 | Form |
| 14 | Teel, Randy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 12.16 | 4,786 | 58,198 | 1,820,303 | Form |
| 15 | Teel, Randy | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 11.89 | 4,403 | 52,352 | 1,836,791 | Form |
| 16 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 11.89 | 5,134 | 61,043 | 1,893,685 | Form |
| 17 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 11.89 | 4,592 | 54,599 | 1,798,148 | Form |
| 18 | Berkowitz, Noah | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 11.89 | 5,685 | 67,595 | 1,949,223 | Form |
| 19 | Loomis, David K | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 11.89 | 1,016 | 12,080 | 366,212 | Form |
| 20 | Loomis, David K | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 9.89 | 230 | 2,275 | 313,483 | Form |
| 21 | Morrison, Briggs | Direct | Buy | 9242025 | 7.57 | 30,000 | 227,010 | 575,251 | Form | |
| 22 | Saik, Andrew | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 7.61 | 5,700 | 43,377 | 1,251,092 | Form |
| 23 | Cacace, Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182025 | 7.49 | 2,583 | 19,347 | 1,155,318 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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