Arvinas (ARVN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $11.65 | Market Cap: $852.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arvinas (ARVN)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $11.65Market Cap: $852.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -91% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 94% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -59% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -106% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | ||
| Key risksARVN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the success of lead asset vepdegestrant, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -91% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 94% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -59% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -106% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| Key risksARVN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the success of lead asset vepdegestrant, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARVN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movements for Arvinas (ARVN) from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:
1. FDA New Drug Application (NDA) Submission and Acceptance for Vepdegestrant.
Arvinas submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for vepdegestrant, a PROTAC estrogen receptor degrader, for the treatment of ESR1-mutated, ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer in August 2025. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) subsequently accepted this NDA, setting a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date of June 5, 2026. This regulatory progress for their lead asset is a significant positive development, indicating a potential path to market.
2. Positive Phase 3 Clinical Trial Results for Vepdegestrant.
The global Phase 3 VERITAC-2 clinical trial evaluating vepdegestrant demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) compared to fulvestrant in the target patient population. Furthermore, patient-reported outcomes from the VERITAC-2 trial, presented at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology Congress, highlighted that vepdegestrant significantly delayed the deterioration of overall quality of life, pain, and various functioning domains in patients with ESR1-mutated disease. These robust results underscore the therapeutic potential of vepdegestrant.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARVN Return | 107% | -3% | -58% | 20% | -53% | -41% | -73% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -68% | 88% | 14% | 121% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARVN Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 50% | 33% | 45% | 40% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARVN Max Drawdown | -51% | -31% | -60% | -59% | -57% | -68% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -77% | -53% | -34% | -54% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KYMR, NRIX, OLMA, GLUE, CCCC. See ARVN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 660.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 120 days |
Compare to BEAM, QDEL, RXRX, RCKT, ACSB
In The Past
Arvinas's stock fell -86.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/29/2021. A -86.8% loss requires a 660.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Arvinas Earnings Notes | |||
| Is Arvinas Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Arvinas (ARVN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARVN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Down 24% In A Month, Will Arvinas Stock Rebound? | June 1st, 2022 | ||
| Will Arvinas Stock Rebound After A 12% Drop In A Month? | October 18th, 2021 | ||
| Down Over 20% In A Month Can Arvinas Stock Rebound? | April 14th, 2021 | ||
| What’s Next For Arvinas After A Solid 2x Increase? | January 13th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arvinas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 64 |
| Op Inc LTM | -142 |
| FCF LTM | -182 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -137 |
| CFO LTM | -181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -132 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 48.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -26.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -319.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -377.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -34.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -275.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -274.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -288.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -294.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| P/EBIT | -7.1 |
| P/E | -10.5 |
| P/CFO | -4.7 |
| Total Yield | -6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -19.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 95.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 72.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 49.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 79.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 90.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 55.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.3% | 17.5% | 34.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.5% | -10.8% | 0.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -24.8% | -30.7% | -25.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -6.8% | -1.7% | -52.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.6% | -2.2% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2024 | -2.5% | -10.3% | -7.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | 6.4% | -2.1% | -13.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -1.6% | -4.8% | -16.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -5.1% | -16.5% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 33.9% | 79.0% |
| Max Negative | -24.8% | -30.7% | -52.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Morrison Briggs | 9242025 | Buy | 7.57 | 30,000 | 227,010 | 575,251 | Form | |
| 1 | Cacace Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | 6182025 | Sell | 7.49 | 2,583 | 19,347 | 1,155,318 | Form |
| 2 | Berkowitz Noah | Chief Medical Officer | 3182025 | Sell | 8.59 | 8,658 | 74,372 | 945,098 | Form |
| 3 | Loomis David K | Chief Accounting Officer | 2252025 | Sell | 16.75 | 1,214 | 20,334 | 315,955 | Form |
| 4 | Cacace Angela M | Chief Scientific Officer | 2252025 | Sell | 16.75 | 3,061 | 51,272 | 1,647,815 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |