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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -125%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 94%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -59%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -106%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -125%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 94%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -59%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -105%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -106%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARVN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Based on available information for Arvinas (ARVN) around the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, several key developments could explain significant stock movement.

1. Positive Topline Results from Phase 3 VERITAC-2 Clinical Trial: Arvinas and Pfizer announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 VERITAC-2 clinical trial of vepdegestrant in ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer on March 11, 2025. The trial met its primary endpoint in the ESR1-mutant population, demonstrating a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) compared to fulvestrant. This positive outcome for a late-stage clinical asset is a significant catalyst for stock appreciation.

2. Submission of New Drug Application (NDA) for Vepdegestrant: On June 6, 2025, Arvinas announced the submission of a New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for vepdegestrant for patients with ESR1-mutated ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. This critical regulatory step moves the drug closer to potential market approval and commercialization.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARVN Return107%-3%-58%20%-53%-35%-69%
Peers Return70%-22%-38%9%-34%-34%-61%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARVN Win Rate42%58%42%33%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate50%36%46%48%38%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARVN Max Drawdown-51%-31%-60%-59%-57%-68% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-31%-62%-38%-46%-55% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BEAM, RXRX, QDEL, RCKT, ACSB. See ARVN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARVNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven660.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven181.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven54 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven26 days120 days

Compare to BEAM, RXRX, QDEL, RCKT, ACSB


In The Past

Arvinas's stock fell -86.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/29/2021. A -86.8% loss requires a 660.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arvinas (ARVN)

Better Bets than Arvinas (ARVN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arvinas

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARVNBEAMRXRXQDELRCKTACSBMedian
NameArvinas Beam The.Recursio.QuidelOr.Rocket P.Acesis  
Mkt Price12.5528.914.9227.823.42-12.55
Mkt Cap0.93.02.21.90.4-1.9
Rev LTM31256432,7140-56
Op Inc LTM-102-466-724107-247--247
FCF LTM-330-352-450-153-203--330
FCF 3Y Avg-310-297-354-34-214--297
CFO LTM-328-338-44137-202--328
CFO 3Y Avg-307-276-339169-205--276

Growth & Margins

ARVNBEAMRXRXQDELRCKTACSBMedian
NameArvinas Beam The.Recursio.QuidelOr.Rocket P.Acesis  
Rev Chg LTM93.9%-84.1%-32.8%-3.7%---18.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg40.2%77.8%23.2%-3.5%--31.7%
Rev Chg Q-59.1%-32.0%-80.9%-3.7%---45.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-16.2%-7.6%-32.7%-1.0%---11.9%
Op Mgn LTM-32.7%-837.1%-1,666.6%4.0%---434.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-150.1%-459.3%-980.6%5.7%---304.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-97.2%-659.5%-0.2%---49.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-104.9%-607.1%-1,016.2%1.4%---356.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-158.6%-359.8%-686.3%5.6%---259.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-105.5%-632.6%-1,037.0%-5.6%---369.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-160.0%-384.9%-715.3%-1.5%---272.4%

Valuation

ARVNBEAMRXRXQDELRCKTACSBMedian
NameArvinas Beam The.Recursio.QuidelOr.Rocket P.Acesis  
Mkt Cap0.93.02.21.90.4-1.9
P/S2.044.750.20.7--23.3
P/EBIT-6.1-5.3-3.1-2.1-1.5--3.1
P/E-10.7-6.0-3.0-1.7-1.5--3.0
P/CFO-1.9-7.4-4.954.1-1.8--1.9
Total Yield-9.4%-16.7%-32.8%-58.9%-66.2%--32.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-33.1%-14.0%-18.5%-2.6%-27.1%--18.5%
D/E0.00.10.01.40.1-0.1
Net D/E-1.2-0.4-0.31.4-0.5--0.4

Returns

ARVNBEAMRXRXQDELRCKTACSBMedian
NameArvinas Beam The.Recursio.QuidelOr.Rocket P.Acesis  
1M Rtn31.6%27.1%-1.6%2.5%4.0%-4.0%
3M Rtn64.9%55.9%8.8%0.1%5.9%-8.8%
6M Rtn81.4%70.1%7.7%-7.0%23.5%-23.5%
12M Rtn-50.6%11.1%-31.0%-30.2%-74.8%--31.0%
3Y Rtn-68.2%-34.8%-46.0%-70.3%-82.0%--68.2%
1M Excs Rtn30.3%25.9%-2.9%1.3%2.7%-2.7%
3M Excs Rtn54.5%32.7%0.9%-8.8%-1.5%-0.9%
6M Excs Rtn65.9%54.6%-7.8%-22.4%8.0%-8.0%
12M Excs Rtn-64.6%-11.2%-48.5%-45.5%-89.7%--48.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-140.5%-107.0%-117.7%-139.9%-154.3%--139.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment78131542243
Total78131542243


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,142,090
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.9%
Average Daily Volume2,061,860
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.95
Basic Shares Quantity73,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Morrison Briggs 9242025Buy7.5730,000227,010575,251Form
1Cacace Angela MChief Scientific Officer6182025Sell7.492,58319,3471,155,318Form
2Berkowitz NoahChief Medical Officer3182025Sell8.598,65874,372945,098Form
3Loomis David KChief Accounting Officer2252025Sell16.751,21420,334315,955Form
4Cacace Angela MChief Scientific Officer2252025Sell16.753,06151,2721,647,815Form