Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.41 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.41Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0% | Key risksOBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -120% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -120% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12% |
| Key risksOBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OBK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that could explain recent stock movements for Origin Bancorp (OBK):
**1. Origin Bancorp reported Q3 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.27, which significantly missed the consensus estimate of $0.89.** This substantial earnings miss would typically exert downward pressure on the stock price.
**2. In Q2 2025, Origin Bancorp's net income was $14.6 million, or $0.47 diluted EPS, a decrease from $22.4 million ($0.71 EPS) in Q1 2025, despite an increase in net interest income.** This decline in profitability from the prior quarter could raise investor concerns.
**3. The company undertook a strategic $215.8 million securities portfolio optimization as part of its "Optimize Origin" initiative in Q2 2025, which resulted in a $14.4 million loss, though it is expected to generate $5.6 million in annual net interest income.** While aiming for long-term benefits, the immediate reported loss could have a short-term negative impact on the stock.
**4. Origin Bancorp has received positive sentiment from analysts, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from several brokerages.** Analysts like Piper Sandler and DA Davidson have also boosted price objectives and maintained "overweight" or "buy" ratings, with an average 12-month target price of $42.80. Such endorsements typically provide positive support for the stock.
**5. Origin Bancorp's shares were included in the Russell 1000 Index.** This inclusion can lead to increased visibility, broader institutional investment, and typically reflects the company's market scale and trading presence, generally considered a positive factor for a stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBK Return | -25% | 56% | -13% | -1% | -5% | 20% | 14% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 24% | -1% | 3% | 20% | 14% | 63% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBK Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 65% | 52% | 50% | 53% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBK Max Drawdown | -54% | -1% | -16% | -28% | -21% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -15% | -31% | -13% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CFR, PB, TCBI, HWC, CADE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 554 days | 120 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Origin Bancorp's stock fell -44.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -44.0% loss requires a 78.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Origin Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,348 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 229 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 436 |
| CFO LTM | 249 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 530 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.2 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.8 |
| P/CFO | 15.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -42.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -3.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.8% |
| 1/22/2025 | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.4% | 0.3% | 7.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.8% | -5.5% | -13.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% |
| 1/24/2024 | -5.3% | -8.7% | -11.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 19.3% | 22.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -12.0% | -13.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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