Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Market Price (9/21/2026): $53.68 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Market Price (9/21/2026): $53.68Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 11% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -72% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12% | Key risksOBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -72% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12% |
| Key risksOBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Origin Bancorp (OBK) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Exceeded Analyst Expectations.
Origin Bancorp reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, surpassing analyst consensus. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, which comfortably beat the consensus estimate of $1.00 by 9%. Net interest income (NII) reached $92.2 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $89.98 million, and the fully tax-equivalent net interest margin (NIM-FTE) increased by 21 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 3.92%, marking an all-time high. This strong performance was also accompanied by revenue of $107.59 million, in line with expectations and up 28.9% year-over-year. Management attributed these results to the "Optimize Origin" initiative, which is focused on improving profitability and supporting disciplined growth.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
During the period, Origin Bancorp received several positive adjustments from Wall Street analysts, indicating growing confidence in the stock. Multiple firms either reiterated "outperform" or "buy" ratings or raised their price targets. For example, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods increased their price target from $57.00 to $60.00, and DA Davidson boosted their target from $53.00 to $62.00 in late July and early August 2026. The consensus rating for OBK is a "Moderate Buy," with an average 12-month price target of $58.00, suggesting a potential upside of 10.18% from a recent price of $52.64. A Seeking Alpha article from July 29, 2026, also rated Origin Bancorp as a "BUY," forecasting a 21% forward EPS growth.
Show more
Origin Bancorp (OBK) stock has gained about 15% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Exceeded Analyst Expectations.
Origin Bancorp reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, surpassing analyst consensus. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, which comfortably beat the consensus estimate of $1.00 by 9%. Net interest income (NII) reached $92.2 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $89.98 million, and the fully tax-equivalent net interest margin (NIM-FTE) increased by 21 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 3.92%, marking an all-time high. This strong performance was also accompanied by revenue of $107.59 million, in line with expectations and up 28.9% year-over-year. Management attributed these results to the "Optimize Origin" initiative, which is focused on improving profitability and supporting disciplined growth.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
During the period, Origin Bancorp received several positive adjustments from Wall Street analysts, indicating growing confidence in the stock. Multiple firms either reiterated "outperform" or "buy" ratings or raised their price targets. For example, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods increased their price target from $57.00 to $60.00, and DA Davidson boosted their target from $53.00 to $62.00 in late July and early August 2026. The consensus rating for OBK is a "Moderate Buy," with an average 12-month price target of $58.00, suggesting a potential upside of 10.18% from a recent price of $52.64. A Seeking Alpha article from July 29, 2026, also rated Origin Bancorp as a "BUY," forecasting a 21% forward EPS growth.
3. Enhanced Shareholder Return Initiatives.
Origin Bancorp demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which positively influenced investor sentiment. On July 22, 2026, the company's board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share of common stock. Furthermore, in July 2026, the board approved a significant $100 million increase in the existing stock repurchase program, which extends through July 2028, with $121.6 million remaining available for share repurchases as of late July. In fiscal Q2 2026 alone, the company repurchased 217,034 shares of its common stock at an average price of $46.60 per share.
4. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions, Particularly in Texas.
The company benefited from a strong economic backdrop, particularly within its key operating markets. An article published on July 29, 2026, highlighted that "Favorable Macro In Texas Drives Earnings" for Origin Bancorp, noting robust loan growth in the state. Texas is recognized for having the 8th largest economy globally, serving as a significant hub for corporate relocation and expansion, and exhibiting strong job growth, with 98,000 nonfarm jobs added between May 2025 and May 2026. Additionally, the broader regional banking sector experienced positive momentum in fiscal Q2 2026, with overall bank stock prices climbing due to relatively low inflation, strong earnings, and eased credit concerns across the sector.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.3% change in OBK stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.44 | 53.73 | 13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 398 | 421 | 5.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.2% | 23.7% | 17.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 16.6 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBK | 13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 5.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.3% | 51.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.5% change in OBK stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.19 | 53.73 | 30.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 389 | 421 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 16.6 | -1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBK | 30.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.2% | 54.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.6% change in OBK stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.21 | 53.73 | 40.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 347 | 421 | 21.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.1% | 23.7% | 17.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 16.6 | -2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBK | 40.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 27.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 51.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.7% change in OBK stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.09 | 53.73 | 84.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 369 | 421 | 14.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.9% | 23.7% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 16.6 | 70.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OBK | 84.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.8% | 60.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBK Return | 56% | -13% | -1% | -5% | 15% | 45% | 112% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 1% | 1% | 19% | 6% | 13% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBK Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 52% | 55% | 55% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBK Max Drawdown | -15% | -23% | -34% | -21% | -28% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -23% | -34% | -16% | -24% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CFR, PB, TCBI, HWC, HOMB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 805 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Origin Bancorp's stock fell -25.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | OBK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Origin Bancorp's stock fell -25.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services. The company primarily caters to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, high net worth individuals, and retail clients across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi through its network of banking centers.
Its main products and services include a variety of deposit accounts, such as checking, savings, money market, and time deposits. On the lending side, Origin Bank offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, and consumer loans. The company also provides mortgage origination and servicing facilities, and property and casualty insurance products.
Beyond traditional banking, Origin Bancorp extends its offerings to include modern financial solutions like internet and mobile banking, cash management, treasury management, and peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions. These services are designed to meet the diverse financial needs of its target customer segments within its established regional markets.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Origin Bancorp (OBK):
- Bank of America for the Gulf South region
- A regional JPMorgan Chase
- A community-focused Wells Fargo, operating in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deposit Accounts: Offers various checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts for individuals and businesses.
- Lending Services: Provides a diverse portfolio of loans including commercial real estate, construction, consumer, residential, commercial & industrial, and mortgage warehouse loans.
- Insurance Products: Delivers personal and commercial property and casualty insurance solutions.
- Digital Banking & Treasury Services: Supplies internet banking, mobile apps, cash management, treasury management, and other financial technology solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Origin Bancorp (OBK) primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Small and medium-sized businesses
- Municipalities
- Individuals (including both high net worth individuals and retail clients)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Drake Mills has over 36 years of banking experience, having started his career at Origin Bank in January 1998 as a check file clerk. He has served as CEO for over 28 years and is described as having an entrepreneurial spirit.
William Wallace, IV, Chief Financial OfficerWally Wallace joined Origin Bancorp in 2022 and brings over 18 years of experience in the financial industry. Before joining Origin, he worked as a managing director and equity analyst at Raymond James & Associates, which he joined in 2011 following an acquisition. Prior to that, he held a role as an assistant vice president at FBR Capital Markets.
M. Lance Hall, President and Chief Executive Officer, Origin BankLance Hall has served the Origin organization for over 25 years, holding various roles with increasing responsibility. He was promoted to President and CEO of Origin Bank, the company's subsidiary, in January 2020. His previous positions include President of Origin Bank (since July 2018), Louisiana State President (March 2013 to July 2018), Chief Strategy Officer (March 2016), and Chief Operating Officer of the Bank (February 2017). Before joining Origin Bank, Mr. Hall spent four years at Regions Bank as a Credit Analyst and Commercial Relationship Manager.
Stephen Brolly, Chief Accounting OfficerStephen Brolly possesses approximately 19 years of banking experience. Before joining Origin in January 2018, he served as Chief Financial Officer of Fidelity Southern Corporation and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Fidelity Bank, for approximately ten years from 2006 to 2017. In that role, he was responsible for equity and debt raising activities, strategic planning, budgeting and forecasting, and managing financial, operational, and strategic activities related to acquisitions. Prior to his tenure at Fidelity Southern, he was Senior Vice President and Controller of Sun Bancorp, Inc. and Sun National Bank for seven years. He began his professional career in public accounting, spending 13 years at Deloitte & Touche.
Jim Crotwell, Chief Risk OfficerJim Crotwell serves as the Chief Risk Officer for Origin Bancorp. Limited additional background information is publicly available for this individual from the search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Origin Bancorp (OBK)
- Credit Risk and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Exposure: Origin Bancorp faces significant credit risk, particularly from its substantial exposure to commercial real estate. Elevated interest rates and shifts in office demand can put stress on the CRE market, potentially leading to increased loan losses and deterioration in asset quality. General economic downturns in its operating regions could also adversely affect borrower creditworthiness and the performance of its loan portfolio.
- Interest Rate Fluctuations and Deposit Competition: The company's profitability is sensitive to changes in benchmark interest rates, which directly impact its net interest income. Origin Bancorp also faces intense competition for deposits from digital and national banks, which can compress its net interest margins and make funding growth more challenging.
- Geographic Concentration: Origin Bancorp operates primarily in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. This regional concentration exposes the bank to heightened vulnerability from localized economic downturns, regional real estate market corrections, and potential shocks within key sectors like the energy industry in these states.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Origin Bancorp (OBK) operates in the banking and financial services sector across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The addressable markets for its main products and services in the United States and specifically in Texas are detailed below:
Commercial Banking
The U.S. commercial banking market size was estimated at USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 915.45 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.56%. The South and Southwest regions, which include Origin Bancorp's operating areas, are among the fastest-growing regions for commercial banking, with combined loan balances expanding at over 5.85% annually. The U.S. commercial banking market in Texas, in particular, experienced significant growth in 2025 and is expected to surpass national growth rates through 2031.
Retail Banking
The United States retail banking market was valued at USD 0.87 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.22% during the forecast period.
Commercial Real Estate Lending
The U.S. commercial real estate mortgage market for income-producing properties is approximately $4.5 trillion. Additionally, construction loans account for about $467 billion. Total commercial real estate mortgage borrowing and lending in the U.S. was estimated at $498 billion in 2024. In Texas specifically, commercial construction spending totals approximately $90 billion per year. Commercial Real Estate Loans held by all commercial banks in the United States amounted to $3,072.46750 billion in February 2026.
Residential Real Estate Lending
The U.S. home loan market size is estimated at USD 2.29 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.17 trillion by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.56% from 2026 to 2031. Sun Belt states such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina lead this market due to population inflows and relative housing affordability.
Property & Casualty Insurance
The U.S. property and casualty insurance market is valued at USD 1.10 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.33 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.96%. For Origin Bancorp's specific operating regions, direct premiums earned in the property and casualty insurance market for Texas totaled $59 billion in 2024. North America, which includes the U.S., dominated the global property and casualty insurance market with a 32% market share in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Origin Bancorp (OBK)
Origin Bancorp (OBK) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market opportunities:
- Strategic Expansion and Market Share Gains: The company plans to expand its presence through strategic hiring of new bankers, particularly in high-growth markets such as Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. This expansion aims to capitalize on market disruption created by mergers and acquisitions among competitors within its operating footprint of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Origin Bancorp has a history of enhancing market share through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions and de novo market entries.
- Loan Growth and Originations: Investments in additional banking talent are expected to accelerate loan growth in late 2026 and into 2027. Management anticipates mid- to high single-digit growth in loans and deposits. The company has demonstrated strong loan origination performance, with an approximately 37% year-over-year increase in Q4 CY2025, significantly driven by activity in Texas.
- Growth in Non-Interest Income: Origin Bancorp expects to generate additional income through specific non-interest-bearing activities. Notably, an increased ownership stake in Argent Financial to 20% is projected to drive approximately $6 million in additional income in the upcoming year (from July 2025). Furthermore, the company has seen a 57% increase in loan and swap fees.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM) Management and Optimization: While facing potential slight margin compression in Q1 2026, Origin Bancorp anticipates its Net Interest Margin (NIM) to be in the 3.70% to 3.80% range by Q4 2026, with a bias towards the higher end. This sustained or expanding NIM, alongside earning asset yields, is expected to contribute to net interest income growth in the mid-to-high single digits for both the full year 2026 and Q4 over Q4.
- "Optimize Origin" Initiative: This strategic initiative is designed to drive elite financial performance and enhance the company's culture. With a focus on productivity, delivery, efficiency, balance sheet optimization, and employee engagement, the initiative targets achieving a return on average assets (ROAA) run rate of 1.15% or higher by the fourth quarter of 2026. Improvements in operational efficiency and balance sheet management stemming from this initiative are expected to bolster overall revenue generation and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Origin Bancorp did not undertake any stock repurchases during the years ended December 31, 2022, or December 31, 2023.
- In the second quarter of 2025, the company repurchased 136,399 shares of common stock.
- During the fourth quarter of 2025, Origin Bancorp repurchased 49,358 shares of its common stock at an average price of $38.77 per share. A new $50 million stock repurchase program was also announced in Q2 2025.
Share Issuance
- Origin Bancorp acquired BT Holdings in Quitman, Texas, in an all-stock deal valued at $313.5 million, which was announced in February 2022 and closed later that year. This acquisition significantly increased the shares outstanding from 23.48 million at the end of 2021 to 30.67 million at the end of 2022.
- The company has an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) which provides for the purchase of up to an aggregate one million shares of common stock by employees.
- Shares are also issued through restricted stock unit (RSU) grants to executives, with exercises and new grants occurring, such as in February 2025 and 2026.
Inbound Investments
- No significant large investments made in Origin Bancorp by third-party strategic partners or private equity firms have been reported during the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2022, Origin Bancorp agreed to acquire BT Holdings in Quitman, Texas, in an all-stock transaction valued at $313.5 million. This acquisition was aimed at accelerating growth in East Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth marketplace.
Capital Expenditures
- Origin Bancorp plans to invest approximately $10 million in new bankers and banking teams in 2026 to capitalize on market opportunities.
- The company has focused on "Critical Southeast Expansion And Tech Investments" to boost market share and profitability.
- Cash from investing activities was -$113.7 million in 2025, which broadly includes capital expenditures on property and equipment, as well as purchases and sales of investment securities and business acquisitions.
Peer Outperformance in Regional Banks
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 24.2% | 70.6% | 133.7% | SPNT 170% · RGA 154% · RNR 140% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -1.7% | 105.1% | 116.5% | IBKR 527% · SNEX 257% · HOOD 183% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 27.5% | 129.8% | 116.3% | CM 161% · JPM 159% · RY 149% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 8.6% | 57.6% | 105.8% | JXN 534% · UNM 373% · FG 207% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 6.8% | 50.2% | 87.3% | JONE 361% · VOYA 88% · BRK-B 87% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 9.6% | 67.5% | 67.8% | ASIC 2760900% · HRTG 445% · UVE 331% |
| Regional Banks ← | 265 | 23.9% | 91.7% | 67.1% | ESQ 391% · GCBC 340% · VBNK 335% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 8.8% | 71.2% | 64.1% | GNW 201% · L 112% · SLF 104% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -0.1% | 17.4% | 32.7% | VIRT 184% · CBOE 135% · CME 83% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -7.3% | 22.1% | 32.6% | FRHC 168% · EQH 119% · TMS -54% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 1.7% | 89.6% | 26.9% | ENVA 447% · EZPW 319% · FCFS 168% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -15.1% | -6.3% | 20.3% | LIFE 200% · ARX 87% · AJG 70% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -50.2% | 32.8% | 13.9% | FNMA 454% · FMCC 436% · ACT 204% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 84 | -11.7% | 17.6% | 12.0% | WT 348% · SII 279% · VCTR 274% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 14.0% | 42.2% | -2.8% | EFC 27% · CACC -3% · HASI -16% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -13.0% | 7.4% | -16.5% | NREF 53% · RITM 42% · DX 34% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | -1.0% | -5.9% | -42.9% | V 74% · MA 73% · CPAY 58% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -36.3% | 20.7% | -48.1% | OPY 196% · LPLA 136% · GOLD 90% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,330 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 506 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 416 |
| CFO LTM | 533 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 494 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 40.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 38.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $53.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/09/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $53.35 | $45.87 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.7% | 17.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.0% | 23.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.43 | 35.63 |
| Upside Capture | 47.74 | 79.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 2.3% | 30.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | 0.29 | -0.38 | -0.57 | 0.19 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Down Beta | -0.99 | -0.73 | -0.20 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 1.01 |
| Up Capture | 2% | 54% | 48% | 71% | 56% | 65% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 34 | 71 | 138 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 70% | 47% | -3% | 34% | 43% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 56 | 111 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBK | 54.3% | 23.8% | 1.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.5% | 14.6% | 0.08 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 30.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | -4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.6% | 1.73 | -24.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 43.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.3% | -0.70 | 9.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBK | 7.8% | 29.0% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 60.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 46.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.5% | 0.42 | 17.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OBK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBK | 4.9% | 34.5% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 62.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | -4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 47.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 15.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/24/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/22/2026 | 1.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| 4/22/2026 | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 2.5% |
| 10/22/2025 | -3.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.8% |
| 1/22/2025 | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.4% | 0.3% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -2.5% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 11.0% | 22.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -12.0% | -13.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/22/2026 | 1.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| 4/22/2026 | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 2.5% |
| 10/22/2025 | -3.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.8% |
| 1/22/2025 | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.4% | 0.3% | 7.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | -4.8% | -5.5% | -13.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% |
| 1/24/2024 | -5.3% | -8.7% | -11.2% |
| 10/25/2023 | 6.3% | 9.6% | 22.4% |
| 7/26/2023 | -2.9% | -3.4% | -9.2% |
| 4/26/2023 | -4.3% | -12.0% | -3.6% |
| 1/25/2023 | 0.5% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 10/26/2022 | -1.5% | 0.3% | 4.0% |
| 7/27/2022 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| 4/27/2022 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -1.3% | 2.5% | 7.5% |
| 10/27/2021 | 1.5% | 7.4% | 0.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.4% | -2.5% | -2.6% |
| 4/28/2021 | 3.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% |
| 1/27/2021 | 3.0% | 10.6% | 18.5% |
| 10/28/2020 | -0.3% | -0.8% | 18.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -2.5% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 11.0% | 22.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -12.0% | -13.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/02/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 ROAA | Reported | 0.01 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.01 for Q4 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 ROAA run rate target | Reported | 0.01 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.01 for Q4 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 ROAA run rate | Reported | 0.01 | 0.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.01 for Q4 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 ROAA | Reported | 0.01 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.01 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Pre-tax annualized benefit from Argent Financial investment | Reported | 6.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, Cecil W | Direct | Buy | 8102026 | 53.86 | 3,700 | 199,282 | 950,467 | Form | |
| 2 | Jones, Cecil W | Direct | Buy | 11042025 | 34.71 | 8,500 | 295,035 | 441,129 | Form | |
| 3 | Luffey, Gary E | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.78 | 500 | 17,390 | 5,586,378 | Form | |
| 4 | Hall, Martin Lance | OBK COO, Origin Bank Pres&CEO | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.50 | 1,500 | 51,750 | 1,035,380 | Form |
| 5 | Wallace, Willliam J IV | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.95 | 2,250 | 78,638 | 517,679 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones, Cecil W | Direct | Buy | 8102026 | 53.86 | 3,700 | 199,282 | 950,467 | Form | |
| 2 | Jones, Cecil W | Direct | Buy | 11042025 | 34.71 | 8,500 | 295,035 | 441,129 | Form | |
| 3 | Luffey, Gary E | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.78 | 500 | 17,390 | 5,586,378 | Form | |
| 4 | Hall, Martin Lance | OBK COO, Origin Bank Pres&CEO | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.50 | 1,500 | 51,750 | 1,035,380 | Form |
| 5 | Wallace, Willliam J IV | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.95 | 2,250 | 78,638 | 517,679 | Form |
| 6 | Brolly, Stephen H | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.94 | 700 | 24,458 | 780,001 | Form |
| 7 | Wallace, Willliam J IV | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.80 | 2,250 | 78,300 | 437,158 | Form |
| 8 | D'Agostino, James Samuel JR | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 33.93 | 1,000 | 33,930 | 1,625,824 | Form | |
| 9 | Mills, Drake | Chairman, President and CEO | IRA | Buy | 10292025 | 34.02 | 400 | 13,608 | 131,521 | Form |
| 10 | Mills, Drake | Chairman, President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.08 | 800 | 27,264 | 5,065,447 | Form |
| 11 | Brolly, Stephen H | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.11 | 300 | 10,233 | 737,626 | Form |
| 12 | Crotwell, Jim | Chief Risk Officer | IRA | Buy | 10292025 | 34.32 | 3,000 | 102,960 | 839,982 | Form |
| 13 | Moore, Preston | Chief Credit & Banking Officer | IRA | Buy | 10292025 | 34.25 | 1,000 | 34,250 | 85,625 | Form |
| 14 | Moore, Preston | Chief Credit & Banking Officer | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.27 | 6,500 | 222,755 | 1,880,806 | Form |
| 15 | McGee, Derek | Chief Legal Counsel | Direct | Buy | 10292025 | 34.01 | 236 | 8,026 | 555,723 | Form |
| 16 | McGee, Derek | Chief Legal Counsel | IRA | Buy | 10292025 | 34.25 | 732 | 25,071 | 50,245 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 21, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Regional Banks Resources |
| Bank Director |
| Independent Banker |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.