Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
Key risks
OBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -120%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -120%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
7 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
8 Key risks
OBK key risks include [1] its significant exposure to commercial real estate with deteriorating credit quality and [2] a material weakness in its internal controls over financial reporting.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OBK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that could explain recent stock movements for Origin Bancorp (OBK): **1. Origin Bancorp reported Q3 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.27, which significantly missed the consensus estimate of $0.89.** This substantial earnings miss would typically exert downward pressure on the stock price.

**2. In Q2 2025, Origin Bancorp's net income was $14.6 million, or $0.47 diluted EPS, a decrease from $22.4 million ($0.71 EPS) in Q1 2025, despite an increase in net interest income.** This decline in profitability from the prior quarter could raise investor concerns.

**3. The company undertook a strategic $215.8 million securities portfolio optimization as part of its "Optimize Origin" initiative in Q2 2025, which resulted in a $14.4 million loss, though it is expected to generate $5.6 million in annual net interest income.** While aiming for long-term benefits, the immediate reported loss could have a short-term negative impact on the stock.

**4. Origin Bancorp has received positive sentiment from analysts, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from several brokerages.** Analysts like Piper Sandler and DA Davidson have also boosted price objectives and maintained "overweight" or "buy" ratings, with an average 12-month target price of $42.80. Such endorsements typically provide positive support for the stock.

**5. Origin Bancorp's shares were included in the Russell 1000 Index.** This inclusion can lead to increased visibility, broader institutional investment, and typically reflects the company's market scale and trading presence, generally considered a positive factor for a stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OBK Return-25%56%-13%-1%-5%20%14%
Peers Return-6%24%-1%3%20%14%63%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OBK Win Rate58%75%33%58%42%75% 
Peers Win Rate48%65%52%50%53%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OBK Max Drawdown-54%-1%-16%-28%-21%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-4%-15%-31%-13%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CFR, PB, TCBI, HWC, CADE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOBKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven554 days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Origin Bancorp's stock fell -44.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -44.0% loss requires a 78.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Origin Bancorp (OBK)

Better Bets than Origin Bancorp (OBK)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OBK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Origin Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OBKCFRPBTCBIHWCCADEMedian
NameOrigin B.Cullen/F.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Hancock .Cadence . 
Mkt Price39.44128.3771.9293.3366.0543.4968.98
Mkt Cap1.28.26.84.35.68.16.2
Rev LTM3662,1911,1911,2121,4851,8921,348
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM13316238229566-229
FCF 3Y Avg116436501308541-436
CFO LTM145158265249580-249
CFO 3Y Avg135581530339559-530

Growth & Margins

OBKCFRPBTCBIHWCCADEMedian
NameOrigin B.Cullen/F.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Hancock .Cadence . 
Rev Chg LTM3.3%7.9%7.1%35.5%8.7%43.2%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.6%13.0%2.7%12.0%4.1%13.5%9.8%
Rev Chg Q20.8%9.5%3.9%171.6%5.2%13.2%11.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.4%2.3%1.0%21.6%1.3%3.3%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM39.7%7.2%22.3%20.5%39.1%-22.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.1%28.7%47.5%34.7%39.0%-37.1%
FCF/Rev LTM36.3%0.7%20.0%18.9%38.1%-20.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg31.7%21.6%44.9%31.4%37.8%-31.7%

Valuation

OBKCFRPBTCBIHWCCADEMedian
NameOrigin B.Cullen/F.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Hancock .Cadence . 
Mkt Cap1.28.26.84.35.68.16.2
P/S2.93.75.33.23.64.33.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E18.012.711.812.911.015.212.8
P/CFO7.451.623.815.59.2-15.5
Total Yield6.0%11.0%11.9%7.8%10.6%8.3%9.5%
Dividend Yield0.4%3.1%3.5%0.0%1.5%1.8%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.8%6.7%8.4%9.2%13.1%-9.2%
D/E0.10.00.40.20.30.30.2
Net D/E-1.2-2.30.0-1.60.0-0.5-0.8

Returns

OBKCFRPBTCBIHWCCADEMedian
NameOrigin B.Cullen/F.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Hancock .Cadence . 
1M Rtn17.6%7.9%11.9%12.9%18.3%17.5%15.2%
3M Rtn11.6%2.6%10.2%9.5%5.4%18.8%9.8%
6M Rtn14.7%5.5%8.0%23.3%25.0%45.6%19.0%
12M Rtn12.2%-3.1%-5.2%13.3%19.6%25.7%12.8%
3Y Rtn14.9%11.5%16.7%70.4%53.2%102.4%34.9%
1M Excs Rtn16.9%7.2%11.1%12.2%17.6%16.8%14.5%
3M Excs Rtn6.5%-0.8%6.8%4.9%2.1%13.5%5.7%
6M Excs Rtn2.3%-6.8%-4.3%10.9%12.6%33.2%6.6%
12M Excs Rtn-0.1%-15.0%-18.1%-0.5%6.8%12.3%-0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-60.4%-66.3%-55.1%-8.3%-30.1%17.8%-42.6%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Community banking353327261246213
Total353327261246213


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity345,260
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.5%
Average Daily Volume129,610
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.66
Basic Shares Quantity31,183,092
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-3.7%0.5%0.2%
7/23/2025-0.5%-1.6%-1.1%
4/23/20250.3%0.9%4.8%
1/22/20254.8%8.6%8.8%
10/23/2024-2.4%0.3%7.1%
7/24/2024-4.8%-5.5%-13.3%
4/24/20243.3%3.1%5.3%
1/24/2024-5.3%-8.7%-11.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121414
# Negative121010
Median Positive3.0%5.3%7.3%
Median Negative-2.1%-2.3%-2.9%
Max Positive6.4%19.3%22.4%
Max Negative-5.3%-12.0%-13.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021