Main Street Capital (MAIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $59.5 | Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Main Street Capital (MAIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $59.5Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 5.6% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12 |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MAIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Main Street Capital (MAIN) experienced a -2.0% year-to-date decline as of December 3, 2025, with short-term performance also showing a modest decrease over 30 days. While the specific -8.9% movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, is not explicitly detailed in available information, several factors can generally influence the stock performance of Business Development Companies (BDCs) like Main Street Capital.
1. Valuation and Market Perception: Main Street Capital's stock recently closed at $58.06, with an Excess Returns model suggesting it is approximately 8.1% overvalued, indicating it screens as slightly expensive. Its Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of about 9.7x is below the broader Capital Markets industry average of 23.8x, which might suggest it's cheaper than competitors on earnings, but this doesn't fully capture differences in growth prospects, business quality, or risk.
2. Interest Rate Sensitivity and Economic Conditions: BDCs can be sensitive to economic conditions and market volatility, as their success depends on the performance of the companies they invest in. While some investors believe BDC earnings benefit from rising interest rates due to floating-rate loans, the actual impact depends on various factors, including the mix of fixed-versus floating-rate assets, leverage, and funding costs. A BDC correction in late 2025 was attributed to market overreactions to minor Federal Reserve rate cuts, isolated loan defaults, and regional bank issues.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAIN Return | -20% | 48% | -11% | 28% | 47% | 5% | 111% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAIN Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAIN Max Drawdown | -63% | -2% | -23% | -0% | 0% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 185.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 592 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Main Street Capital's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/5/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MAIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Main Street Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | 70 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 125 |
| CFO LTM | 77 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |