Tearsheet

Nextpower (NXT)


Market Price (4/2/2026): $120.31 | Market Cap: $17.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Nextpower (NXT)


Market Price (4/2/2026): $120.31
Market Cap: $17.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment.

Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 180%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53%

Key risks
NXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, and Renewable Energy Equipment.
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 180%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53%
6 Key risks
NXT key risks include [1] its challenging expansion into the competitive inverter and power conversion market where failures could damage its brand and [2] a heavy revenue concentration in the U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nextpower (NXT) stock has gained about 40% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Q3 FY26 Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance Drove Investor Confidence.

Nextpower reported robust third-quarter fiscal year 2026 results on January 27, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations with revenue of $909 million, a 34% year-over-year increase, against an estimated $813.8 million. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.10 also surpassed the analyst consensus of $0.94. Furthermore, the company raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $3.425 billion to $3.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $4.26 to $4.36, indicating strong future growth prospects. This positive financial news led to an 8.9% after-hours stock surge.

2. Strategic Global Expansion and Key Supply Agreements Bolstered Market Position.

In January 2026, Nextpower established the Nextpower Arabia joint venture with Abunayyan Holding, targeting the rapidly growing utility-scale solar market in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This venture includes plans for a new manufacturing facility in Jeddah with an annual capacity of up to 12 GW and a secured 2.25 GW supply commitment for the Bisha Solar Project. Additionally, in mid-February 2026, Nextpower announced a multi-year supply agreement with Jinko Solar to provide over 1 GW of U.S.-manufactured steel module frames, with potential expansion to 3 GW, reinforcing its supply chain and product offerings.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 38.2% change in NXT stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254012026Change
Stock Price ($)87.11120.3838.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,3733,6036.8%
Net Income Margin (%)17.1%16.4%-3.8%
P/E Multiple22.430.234.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)148148-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution38.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT38.2% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%47.4%
Sector (XLI)6.0%41.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 62.7% change in NXT stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)93020254012026Change
Stock Price ($)73.99120.3862.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,1043,60316.1%
Net Income Margin (%)17.5%16.4%-6.4%
P/E Multiple20.130.250.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)148148-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution62.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT62.7% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%48.7%
Sector (XLI)7.0%41.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 185.7% change in NXT stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 177.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254012026Change
Stock Price ($)42.14120.38185.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,7713,60330.0%
Net Income Margin (%)20.1%16.4%-18.3%
P/E Multiple10.930.2177.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)144148-3.2%
Cumulative Contribution185.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT185.7% 
Market (SPY)16.3%37.9%
Sector (XLI)26.8%39.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 232.0% change in NXT stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120234012026Change
Stock Price ($)36.26120.38232.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,6030.0%
Net Income Margin (%)16.4%0.0%
P/E Multiple30.20.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)42148-71.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NXT232.0% 
Market (SPY)63.3%30.0%
Sector (XLI)69.5%32.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NXT Return--54%-22%138%38%296%
Peers Return-28%15%-32%-39%40%-23%-63%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-5%74%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NXT Win Rate--55%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate38%57%45%42%55%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NXT Max Drawdown---6%-33%0%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-52%-49%-57%-47%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARRY, FSLR, SHLS, FTCI, ENPH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/1/2026 (YTD)

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About Nextpower (NXT)

Our mission is to be the world’s leading energy solutions company enabling the most intelligent, reliable and productive solar power for future generations. We are a leading provider of intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions used in utility-scale and ground-mounted distributed generation solar projects around the world. Our products enable solar panels in utility-scale power plants to follow the sun’s movement across the sky and optimize plant performance. We led the solar industry based on gigawatts (“GW”) shipped globally in 2015 and both globally and in the United States from 2016 to 2021 (1). Over the past several years, the cost of solar energy has declined significantly, and today utility-scale solar is one of the lowest cost sources of wholesale energy production, driving demand for solar energy globally. In addition, demand for renewable energy continues to increase as countries, industries and firms move to reduce their carbon footprint and pursue more aggressive decarbonization targets. Electrification, including the proliferation of electric vehicles and the replacement of natural gas with electricity in buildings and residences, is expected to drive increased demand for energy production, including solar energy. We believe that both the attractive cost of solar generation and increasing demand for renewable energy will drive continued growth in the utility-scale solar market. Approximately 59.1% of installations in the United States are larger than 5 MW and most correspond to the utility-scale segment(2). The solar tracker market plays a key part in driving the global energy transition by increasing energy production and improving the levelized cost of energy (“LCOE”). The majority of utility-scale projects installed today in mature markets such as the United States, Latin America and Australia use solar trackers and adoption of solar tracker technology is growing in developing solar markets such as the Middle East and Africa. According to Wood Mackenzie, the global solar tracking market is estimated to be a $71 billion cumulative opportunity from 2020 to 2030, representing approximately 682 GW of solar capacity installed over that time period(3). By optimizing and increasing energy production and reducing costs, our tracker products and software solutions offer significant return on investment (“ROI”) for utility-scale solar projects. Single axis solar trackers generate up to 25% more energy than projects that use fixed-tilt systems that do not track the sun. To achieve these benefits, the industry initially focused on linked-row tracker architecture that moves rows of solar panels together as one unit to follow the sun. We have developed the next generation of solar trackers that enable rows to move independently, providing further benefits to customers. Our intelligent independent row tracking system incorporates proprietary technology that we believe produces more energy, lowers operating costs, is easier to deploy and has greater reliability compared to linked row, other independent tracker products and fixed-tilt systems. Our tightly-integrated software solutions use advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence technologies to further optimize the performance and capabilities of our tracker products. We have shipped approximately 70 GW of our solar tracker systems as of September 30, 2022 to projects on six continents for use in utility-scale and ground-mounted distributed generation solar applications worth more than $67 billion (based on recent global utility-scale system pricing)(4). Our customers include engineering, procurement and construction firms (“EPCs”), as well as solar project developers and owners. We are a qualified, preferred provider to some of the largest solar EPC firms and solar project developers and owners in the world. We have firm orders representing executed contracts, purchase orders and volume commitment agreements for projects that total approximately $2.1 billion in the aggregate as of December 31, 2022. These firm orders do not include our pipeline for projects that are currently in various stages of negotiations and contract execution. We have had firm orders totaling approximately $1.3 billion, $1.1 billion and $0.7 billion for the fiscal years ended March 31, 2022, 2021 and 2020, respectively. We were founded in 2013 by our Chief Executive Officer, Dan Shugar, and were acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015. Flex provides design, manufacturing and supply chain services through a network of over 100 locations in approximately 30 countries across five continents. Flex’s expertise in global supply chains and procurement and its strong financial backing has helped us accelerate our penetration of our end markets and run an optimized supply chain. (1) Wood Mackenzie, June 2022. (2) Wood Mackenzie, December 2022 (Global solar PV market outlook update: Q4 2022). (3) Wood Mackenzie, December 2022 (The global solar PV tracker landscape 2022). Global total addressable market excludes China. (4) Wood Mackenzie, April 2022 (Global solar PV system price: country breakdowns and forecasts). The $67 billion value represents the estimated aggregate capital expenditures made on solar applications in order to build the projects; solar trackers generally represent approximately 12% of those capital expenditures. Such value is not necessarily indicative of the current market value of the projects as financial assets, which would depend on each project’s future projected cash flows. Our principal executive offices are located at 6200 Paseo Padre Parkway, Fremont, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Analogies for Nextpower (NXT):

  • Intel for utility-scale solar farms
  • NVIDIA for solar energy optimization

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Intelligent Independent Row Solar Trackers: Physical systems that enable individual rows of solar panels to move independently, following the sun's movement to optimize energy production in utility-scale solar projects.
  • Integrated Software Solutions: Advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence technologies that further optimize the performance and capabilities of their solar tracker products.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Nextpower (NXT) primarily sells its intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions to other companies.

Its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • Engineering, Procurement and Construction firms (EPCs)
  • Solar project developers
  • Solar project owners

The provided background information does not name specific customer companies.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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Flex Ltd. (FLEX)

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Dan Shugar, Chief Executive Officer and Founder

Dan Shugar founded Nextpower (originally Nextracker) in July 2013 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer since then. His career in the solar industry began in 1988, holding senior leadership positions across multiple solar companies. Prior to Nextpower, he was Chief Executive Officer of Solaria Corporation, a solar panel manufacturing company, from January 2010 to June 2013. Shugar co-founded PowerLight Corporation in 1996, which was later acquired by SunPower Corporation for $332 million in 2007. He also served as President of SunPower Corporation from 2007 to 2009. Nextracker was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 for $330 million before its IPO in 2023.

Chuck Boynton, Chief Financial Officer

Chuck Boynton was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Nextpower in March 2024, with his role becoming effective in May 2024. Before joining Nextpower as CFO, he served on the company's Board of Directors from February 2023 to March 2024. Boynton previously held the CFO position at Logitech International S.A. and served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Plantronics, Inc.

Howard Wenger, President

Howard Wenger has served as President of Nextpower since February 2022. He began his career in the solar industry in 1984 and has held numerous leadership and board positions. Wenger also served as President of Solaria Corporation from May 2020 to October 2021.

Marco Miller, COO and Co-founder

Marco Miller is the Chief Operating Officer and a Co-founder of Nextpower.

Bruce Ledesma, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer

Bruce Ledesma has served as Nextpower's Chief Legal & Compliance Officer since January 1, 2025. He previously held various President titles from May 2019 through December 2024. Ledesma was also the co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Roble Capital, LLC, a private investment fund, from June 2013 to July 2014.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to Nextpower (NXT)

  1. Dependency on Flex Ltd.: Nextpower was acquired by Flex Ltd. in 2015 and heavily relies on Flex for crucial aspects of its operations, including "design, manufacturing and supply chain services" through Flex’s global network. Additionally, Flex provides "strong financial backing" that has supported Nextpower's market penetration and optimized supply chain. Any change in Flex's strategic priorities, financial health, or its willingness/ability to continue providing these essential services could significantly impact Nextpower's operations and financial stability.

  2. Intense Competition and the Need to Maintain Technological Leadership: Nextpower operates in a competitive market and prides itself on its "proprietary technology" and "next generation" intelligent independent row tracking system. The company's ability to maintain its leading position and capture market share is dependent on the continued superiority of its technology compared to "linked row, other independent tracker products and fixed-tilt systems." A failure to innovate, or the emergence of more advanced or cost-effective solutions from competitors, could erode its market advantage.

  3. Reliance on Continued Growth and Favorable Market Conditions in the Utility-Scale Solar Sector: Nextpower's business is directly tied to the growth of the utility-scale solar market. This growth is driven by factors such as the declining cost of solar energy, increasing demand for renewable energy, and aggressive decarbonization targets globally. While the background describes a positive outlook, a significant slowdown, reversal, or disruption in these market trends, or changes in governmental policies and incentives supporting solar energy, could adversely affect the demand for Nextpower's solar tracker solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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The addressable market for Nextpower's main products, solar trackers, is estimated to be a $71 billion cumulative opportunity from 2020 to 2030, representing approximately 682 GW of solar capacity installed over that time period. This market size is for the global solar tracking market, excluding China.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Nextpower (NXT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the expanding global solar energy market:

  • Strong and Expanding Backlog: Nextpower has a robust and growing backlog of orders, which stood at over $4.5 billion as of Q2 fiscal year 2025 and subsequently grew to greater than $5 billion by Q3 fiscal year 2026. A significant portion of this backlog is anticipated to convert into revenue within the next eight quarters, providing a solid foundation for future sales.
  • Robust Demand in the Utility-Scale Solar Market: The company is benefiting from the increasing global demand for utility-scale solar projects, fueled by solar energy's position as the lowest-cost and most scalable power generation technology. Nextpower is experiencing strong demand in both its established U.S. market, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of its business, and international markets such as the Middle East and Africa.
  • Diversification through New Products and Services: Nextpower is actively expanding its offerings beyond core solar trackers into new business lines, including frames, foundations, electrical components, and advanced software solutions. The company is already securing customer orders for new products like NX Horizon, NXTR 1.5, NX Horizon Low Carbon Tracker, NX Hail Pro-75, and NX Foundation technologies. Approximately one-third of its 2030 revenue is expected to be generated by these new products and services, including its recently launched agrivoltaics solution.
  • Differentiated Competitive Positioning and Innovation: Nextpower's intelligent independent row tracking systems, coupled with integrated software leveraging advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence, offer superior energy production and reduced operating costs. The company's focus on innovation, including solutions for extreme weather resilience (such as patented hail and wind technologies), enhances its competitive edge and drives customer adoption due to a "flight to quality."
  • Strategic International Expansion: Nextpower is actively expanding its global footprint, notably through ventures like Nextpower Arabia, which is set to supply 2.25 GW of systems to a major Saudi project and aims for up to 12 GW of annual local capacity. The adoption of its solar tracker technology is increasing in developing solar markets, contributing to revenue growth from its operations across the United States, Mexico, Spain, Europe, India, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, and Brazil.

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Capital Allocation Decisions (2023-2026)

Share Repurchases

  • Nextpower's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program on January 27, 2026, authorizing the company to buy back up to $500 million of its Class A common stock over a three-year period.

Share Issuance

  • Nextpower completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in February 2023, issuing 26.6 million shares of Class A common stock at $24 per share, which raised $638 million.

Outbound Investments

  • Nextpower made an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $116.6 million (net of cash acquired) for business acquisitions, including Origami and Fracsun, as reported in its Q3 FY26 results (ended December 31, 2025).
  • The company acquired Bentek Corporation for $78 million in May 2023.
  • In January 2026, Nextpower completed the formation of Nextpower Arabia, a joint venture with Abunayyan Holding, contributing $2.7 million in cash to establish the new entity in the quarter ended December 31, 2025, to accelerate solar plant deployment in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Capital Expenditures

  • Nextpower's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $33.9 million, representing a 450.67% increase from $6.2 million in fiscal year 2024.
  • For the trailing twelve months ending September 26, 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $45.75 million.
  • Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (FY2027) are forecasted to be $65.85 million, primarily focused on increasing capacity, replacing equipment, supporting new product development, improving information systems, and expanding the manufacturing footprint.

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Trade Ideas

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Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
NSP_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026NSPInsperityInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
TNC_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026TNCTennantInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
ADP_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%0.0%
HURN_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026HURNHuron ConsultingDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.0%4.0%0.0%
TRU_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026TRUTransUnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%0.0%
NXT_11142025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11142025NXTNextpowerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
28.6%28.6%-8.5%
NXT_12312023_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212312023NXTNextpowerInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
0.1%-21.1%-33.2%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Mkt Price120.387.55199.426.903.7738.2822.91
Mkt Cap17.91.221.41.20.15.03.1
Rev LTM3,6031,2845,2194751001,4731,379
Op Inc LTM739741,59756-35165119
FCF LTM587801,187-16-359688
FCF 3Y Avg4801433246-4138795
CFO LTM6291022,05717-33137119
CFO 3Y Avg5041631,29263-40449306

Growth & Margins

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Rev Chg LTM30.0%40.2%24.1%19.1%110.5%10.7%27.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg25.5%-1.8%25.8%16.8%17.0%-11.0%16.9%
Rev Chg Q33.9%-17.9%11.1%38.6%148.9%-10.3%22.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.8%-3.7%3.3%9.5%24.6%-2.6%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM20.5%5.7%30.6%11.9%-35.5%11.2%11.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.8%10.2%30.1%13.6%-62.4%12.7%13.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-5.1%0.8%-0.9%18.4%-2.5%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM17.5%7.9%39.4%3.6%-33.5%9.3%8.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.3%13.2%28.8%14.2%-49.4%26.1%15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM16.3%6.2%22.7%-3.4%-34.7%6.5%6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.6%11.5%-2.7%10.4%-51.2%22.7%11.0%

Valuation

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
Mkt Cap17.91.221.41.20.15.03.1
P/S5.00.94.12.40.63.42.9
P/EBIT23.6-611.513.219.7-0.823.916.5
P/E30.2-22.114.034.4-0.729.121.6
P/CFO28.411.310.467.7-1.736.719.9
Total Yield3.3%-4.5%7.1%2.9%-139.2%3.4%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.7%9.6%-0.6%3.3%-44.9%3.6%3.4%
D/E0.00.70.00.20.40.20.2
Net D/E-0.10.5-0.10.10.0-0.1-0.0

Returns

NXTARRYFSLRSHLSFTCIENPHMedian
NameNextpowerArray Te.First So.Shoals T.FTC SolarEnphase . 
1M Rtn16.1%-0.3%-0.2%15.8%-49.1%-14.4%-0.2%
3M Rtn38.2%-18.1%-23.7%-18.8%-65.4%19.4%-18.5%
6M Rtn59.2%-17.1%-11.3%-13.0%-49.6%3.4%-12.1%
12M Rtn179.6%55.3%56.3%111.7%37.1%-38.6%55.8%
3Y Rtn232.0%-65.5%-8.3%-69.7%-83.2%-81.8%-67.6%
1M Excs Rtn22.5%4.2%4.5%20.3%-41.0%-7.8%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn43.0%-15.0%-19.9%-14.8%-60.4%23.6%-14.9%
6M Excs Rtn64.4%-5.7%-7.9%-5.2%-44.8%9.9%-5.4%
12M Excs Rtn168.5%37.9%40.6%90.7%14.2%-55.5%39.2%
3Y Excs Rtn220.0%-125.8%-70.4%-132.1%-147.1%-145.8%-129.0%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single Segment2,5001,9021,4581,196
Total2,5001,9021,4581,196


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$120.38 
Market Cap ($ Bil)17.9 
First Trading Date02/09/2023 
Distance from 52W High-7.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$115.01$86.90
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA4.7%38.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility67.2%60.8%
Downside Capture0.820.80
Upside Capture396.44207.79
Correlation (SPY)44.4%37.5%
NXT Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.812.532.422.411.201.18
Up Beta1.441.500.451.030.781.06
Down Beta6.093.372.822.741.461.27
Up Capture379%345%501%540%336%275%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days12213468131368
Down Capture29%174%141%165%103%103%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days10212958119379

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT163.4%60.2%1.85-
Sector ETF (XLI)26.9%19.5%1.1039.7%
Equity (SPY)16.4%18.9%0.6839.0%
Gold (GLD)53.1%27.9%1.5216.8%
Commodities (DBC)16.2%17.6%0.7722.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.2%16.5%-0.0420.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-17.4%44.1%-0.3121.2%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT29.4%59.1%0.92-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.9%17.2%0.5933.1%
Equity (SPY)12.0%17.0%0.5530.5%
Gold (GLD)22.2%17.8%1.029.9%
Commodities (DBC)12.2%18.8%0.5316.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.5%18.8%0.0921.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.7%56.6%0.3213.0%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NXT
NXT13.8%59.1%0.92-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.5%19.9%0.6033.1%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6730.5%
Gold (GLD)14.2%15.9%0.759.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%17.6%0.3916.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2121.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.5%66.8%1.0613.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 228202628.2%
Average Daily Volume1.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity148.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.6%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/27/202613.3%13.2%0.9%
10/23/20258.7%9.7%-3.6%
7/29/2025-9.3%-13.7%4.3%
5/14/202511.9%5.1%10.3%
1/28/202524.3%25.6%13.6%
10/30/202424.6%30.2%19.4%
8/1/2024-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%
5/14/20246.9%9.4%40.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive999
# Negative333
Median Positive12.4%13.2%13.6%
Median Negative-9.3%-13.7%-3.6%
Max Positive24.8%30.2%40.7%
Max Negative-10.4%-14.2%-13.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202501/30/202610-Q
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/22/202510-K
12/31/202401/31/202510-Q
09/30/202411/01/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/28/202410-K
12/31/202302/07/202410-Q
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202306/09/202310-K
12/31/202203/09/202310-Q
09/30/202202/10/2023424B4

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue3.42 Bil3.46 Bil3.50 Bil2.6% RaisedGuidance: 3.38 Bil for 2026
2026 GAAP Net Income525.00 Mil532.50 Mil540.00 Mil3.6% RaisedGuidance: 514.00 Mil for 2026
2026 GAAP Diluted EPS3.433.483.533.6% RaisedGuidance: 3.36 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA810.00 Mil820.00 Mil830.00 Mil3.1% RaisedGuidance: 795.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS4.264.314.364.0% RaisedGuidance: 4.14 for 2026

Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue3.27 Bil3.38 Bil3.48 Bil1.5% RaisedGuidance: 3.33 Bil for 2026
2026 GAAP Net Income499.00 Mil514.00 Mil529.00 Mil-1.1% LoweredGuidance: 519.50 Mil for 2026
2026 GAAP Diluted EPS3.263.363.46-1.0% LoweredGuidance: 3.4 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA775.00 Mil795.00 Mil815.00 Mil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 780.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS4.044.144.250.7% RaisedGuidance: 4.12 for 2026

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Bennett, David PChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1212202588.0833,7252,970,49811,535,573Form
2Boynton, Charles DChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1202202589.334,500401,98525,955,635Form
3Watkins, William DDirectSell1119202591.8510,000918,5201,541,001Form
4Shugar, Daniel SChief Executive OfficerDirectSell1118202591.2847,7434,357,84657,037,461Form
5Wenger, HowardPresidentDirectSell930202575.005,217391,27530,677,925Form