Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 109%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 107%
  Key risks
NSTS key risks include [1] a concentrated credit risk exposure to commercial and multi-family real estate loans within the northern suburbs of Chicago, Show more.
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 17%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 109%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 107%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 17%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1%
9 Key risks
NSTS key risks include [1] a concentrated credit risk exposure to commercial and multi-family real estate loans within the northern suburbs of Chicago, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NSTS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Appointment of John Pucin to Board of Directors.

On June 18, 2025, John Pucin was appointed to the Board of Directors of NSTS Bancorp, Inc. and North Shore Trust and Savings. This governance change occurred just prior to the requested approximate time period and could influence investor sentiment regarding the company's leadership and strategic direction.

2. Reported Stock Price Movement.

On December 10, 2025, NSTS Bancorp (NASDAQ:NSTS) was reported to be trading 0.3% higher. While specific detailed reasons for this particular increase were not provided in the available information, this indicates a positive movement in the stock price within the specified period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSTS Return-6%24%0%
Peers Return-15%42%-3%3%22%12%65%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSTS Win Rate9%67%67%42% 
Peers Win Rate52%73%43%47%50%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSTS Max Drawdown-18%-2%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-20%-30%-9%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WTFC, ONB, ASB, BUSE, BY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSTSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven635 days464 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

NSTS Bancorp's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/19/2022. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NSTS Bancorp (NSTS)

Better Bets than NSTS Bancorp (NSTS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can NSTS Bancorp Stock Really Go?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSTS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NSTS Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NSTSWTFCONBASBBUSEBYMedian
NameNSTS Ban.Wintrust.Old Nati.Associat.First Bu.Byline B. 
Mkt Price12.01142.3123.3526.4325.0030.5125.71
Mkt Cap0.19.59.14.42.21.43.3
Rev LTM92,6502,3241,153636429894
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM101,113729563157129360
FCF 3Y Avg3760563464163149314
CFO LTM101,150758605173135389
CFO 3Y Avg3815596515173153344

Growth & Margins

NSTSWTFCONBASBBUSEBYMedian
NameNSTS Ban.Wintrust.Old Nati.Associat.First Bu.Byline B. 
Rev Chg LTM49.6%11.2%24.9%5.8%40.1%7.2%18.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg17.4%13.2%20.7%1.1%14.8%11.3%14.0%
Rev Chg Q11.0%13.3%45.1%17.7%65.7%12.6%15.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%3.2%10.4%5.3%13.9%3.1%4.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM109.0%43.4%32.6%52.5%27.1%31.4%38.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.7%33.2%29.0%43.5%34.5%38.8%35.6%
FCF/Rev LTM106.5%42.0%31.4%48.8%24.7%30.1%36.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg32.2%30.9%27.3%39.2%32.6%37.8%32.4%

Valuation

NSTSWTFCONBASBBUSEBYMedian
NameNSTS Ban.Wintrust.Old Nati.Associat.First Bu.Byline B. 
Mkt Cap0.19.59.14.42.21.43.3
P/S6.33.63.93.83.53.23.7
P/EBIT-------
P/E-103.512.115.024.821.710.913.5
P/CFO5.88.312.07.212.910.29.3
Total Yield-1.0%8.3%6.7%7.6%4.6%10.4%7.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%3.5%0.0%1.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.5%11.6%9.5%14.1%11.5%14.7%11.5%
D/E0.40.40.70.90.10.40.4
Net D/E-0.2-0.50.50.6-0.1-0.7-0.1

Returns

NSTSWTFCONBASBBUSEBYMedian
NameNSTS Ban.Wintrust.Old Nati.Associat.First Bu.Byline B. 
1M Rtn7.8%11.4%15.7%7.9%11.1%14.1%11.2%
3M Rtn2.0%5.8%6.2%1.5%2.2%7.6%4.0%
6M Rtn-3.1%19.2%15.2%16.6%14.2%22.7%15.9%
12M Rtn6.3%17.8%13.7%15.7%8.6%7.2%11.2%
3Y Rtn20.3%82.8%47.7%34.4%15.8%42.0%38.2%
1M Excs Rtn4.9%8.5%12.8%5.0%8.2%11.2%8.3%
3M Excs Rtn-0.1%5.0%5.3%1.2%0.8%6.3%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-16.6%3.7%-1.1%-0.2%-2.2%7.0%-0.6%
12M Excs Rtn-7.1%-1.9%-5.8%-3.7%-11.4%-12.2%-6.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.0%10.0%-24.0%-36.5%-57.3%-33.9%-35.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Single Segment575
Total575


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,173
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume2,654
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.57
Basic Shares Quantity4,884,404
Short % of Basic Shares0.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024328202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023328202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023512202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022330202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021322202210-K 12/31/2021