Energy Vault (NRGV)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.06 | Market Cap: $637.1 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
Energy Vault (NRGV)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.06Market Cap: $637.1 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -71% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -245% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 354%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -163% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -133% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -71% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -245% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 354%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -163% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -133% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NRGV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 104% stock movement for Energy Vault (NRGV) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments:
1. Regaining NYSE Compliance Through a Significant Stock Surge. Energy Vault successfully regained compliance with the New York Stock Exchange's minimum listing standards after its stock price surged by 114% over 30 consecutive trading days, allowing it to meet the $1.00 average share price threshold by September 3, 2025. This technical achievement had substantial positive implications for investor sentiment and the company's strategic positioning.
2. Strategic Turnaround and Enhanced Supply Chain Management. The company implemented a strategic pivot to address operational bottlenecks and expand its renewable energy storage footprint. A crucial step was a partnership with Turkey's Astor Enerji to secure essential transformers and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) components, mitigating global supply shortages. This move is expected to accelerate the delivery of projects, including 2 GWh of BESS capacity in Romania and over 1 GW of projects across the U.S., Australia, and Europe.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NRGV Return | - | - | - | -25% | -2% | 81% | 32% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -0% | -21% | -8% | -25% | 52% | -2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NRGV Win Rate | - | - | 40% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 37% | 38% | 35% | 48% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NRGV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -52% | -66% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -14% | -37% | -31% | -36% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORA, STEM, BEPC, CWEN, FLNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NRGV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1342.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to ORA, STEM, BEPC, CWEN, FLNC
In The Past
Energy Vault's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2022. A -93.1% loss requires a 1342.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Energy Vault Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NRGV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Energy Vault
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,160 |
| Op Inc LTM | 72 |
| FCF LTM | -149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -94 |
| CFO LTM | 168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 149 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -19.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | 0.3 |
| P/CFO | 1.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 26.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 62.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 43.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 25.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 47.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4012025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312020 | 1212022 | 424B3 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |