Energy Vault (NRGV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.69 | Market Cap: $766.0 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
Energy Vault (NRGV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.69Market Cap: $766.0 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -140% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 428%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 157% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% | ||
| Key risksNRGV key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -140% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 428%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 157% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% |
| Key risksNRGV key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NRGV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Energy Vault (NRGV) experienced a significant stock movement from late August 2025 through December 2025 due to several key developments:
1. Regulatory Compliance and De-risking: Energy Vault regained compliance with NYSE listing requirements in early September 2025, eliminating previous delisting risks and stabilizing investor sentiment.
2. Strategic "Asset Vault" Launch and Major Funding: The company officially launched its "Asset Vault" platform by closing a $300 million non-dilutive preferred equity investment in August-October 2025. This strategy focuses on building, owning, and operating energy storage assets to generate predictable, high-margin recurring revenue and accelerate the deployment of 1.5 GW of global energy storage projects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NRGV Return | � | � | � | -25% | -2% | 119% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -66% | 1% | 45% | 42% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NRGV Win Rate | � | � | 40% | 50% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 43% | 32% | 47% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NRGV Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -52% | -66% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -77% | -39% | -59% | -67% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLNC, STEM, EOSE, GWH, TSLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NRGV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1342.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to ORA, STEM, BEPC, CWEN, FLNC
In The Past
Energy Vault's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2022. A -93.1% loss requires a 1342.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Energy Vault Earnings Notes | ||
| Can Energy Vault Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NRGV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Energy Vault
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 124 |
| Op Inc LTM | -79 |
| FCF LTM | -68 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -82 |
| CFO LTM | -45 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -61 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 67.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -98.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -69.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 63.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -25.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -52.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -42.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | -0.5 |
| P/E | -1.6 |
| P/CFO | -11.7 |
| Total Yield | -15.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -30.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 36.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 200.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 63.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 35.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 188.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 54.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 20.8% | -10.7% | 52.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.6% | 12.1% | 37.9% |
| 3/17/2025 | -21.0% | -16.9% | -38.6% |
| 11/12/2024 | -28.9% | -19.9% | -5.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | -13.8% | -17.3% | -9.5% |
| 3/12/2024 | 5.0% | -5.5% | -30.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | 27.9% | 14.4% | 3.9% |
| 8/8/2023 | -2.6% | 5.2% | -4.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 13.6% | 23.0% |
| Median Negative | -13.8% | -17.1% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 21.3% | 52.7% |
| Max Negative | -28.9% | -26.8% | -41.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4012025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312020 | 1212022 | 424B3 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |