Tearsheet

NeuroPace (NPCE)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $16.28 | Market Cap: $539.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

NeuroPace (NPCE)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $16.28
Market Cap: $539.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
2  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -18 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NPCE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. NeuroPace reported strong Third Quarter 2025 financial results and achieved positive adjusted EBITDA. The company announced record quarterly revenue of $27.4 million in Q3 2025, representing a 30% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024, surpassing analyst estimates. This performance also marked a significant milestone as NeuroPace achieved its first positive adjusted EBITDA, indicating improved operational efficiency and progress towards profitability.

2. NeuroPace increased its full-year 2025 revenue and gross margin guidance. Following the robust Q3 results, the company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $97 million and $98 million, up from the prior range. Additionally, gross margin guidance for the full year was increased to between 76% and 77%, reflecting management's confidence in continued strong performance and a favorable product mix.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NPCE Return-85%592%9%47%
Peers Return32%16%-10%2%9%11%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NPCE Win Rate25%17%67%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%48%50%48%58%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NPCE Max Drawdown-87%-3%-43%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-8%-32%-22%-15%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDT, LIVN, BSX, INSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNPCES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1954.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN


In The Past

NeuroPace's stock fell -95.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/27/2021. A -95.1% loss requires a 1954.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NeuroPace (NPCE)

Better Bets than NeuroPace (NPCE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can NeuroPace Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NPCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NeuroPace

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NPCEMDTLIVNBSXINSPMedian
NameNeuroPaceMedtronicLivaNova Boston S.Inspire . 
Mkt Price16.1999.8762.7592.58130.6892.58
Mkt Cap0.5128.03.4137.23.83.8
Rev LTM9534,7581,34919,3508831,349
Op Inc LTM-186,7191943,72037194
FCF LTM-175,2061913,62899191
FCF 3Y Avg-194,9171032,37848103
CFO LTM-167,1132514,626134251
CFO 3Y Avg-196,6261503,30580150

Growth & Margins

NPCEMDTLIVNBSXINSPMedian
NameNeuroPaceMedtronicLivaNova Boston S.Inspire . 
Rev Chg LTM24.1%5.3%8.6%21.6%16.8%16.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg29.6%4.1%9.9%15.6%37.7%15.6%
Rev Chg Q29.9%6.6%12.5%20.3%10.5%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.1%1.6%3.0%4.6%2.5%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM-19.2%19.3%14.4%19.2%4.2%14.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-34.2%18.6%8.3%18.0%-0.9%8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.2%-0.1%1.0%0.9%-0.6%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-17.2%20.5%18.6%23.9%15.1%18.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-26.3%19.9%11.6%19.8%10.1%11.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-17.5%15.0%14.2%18.7%11.2%14.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-26.7%14.8%7.9%14.1%5.9%7.9%

Valuation

NPCEMDTLIVNBSXINSPMedian
NameNeuroPaceMedtronicLivaNova Boston S.Inspire . 
Mkt Cap0.5128.03.4137.23.83.8
P/S3.63.72.17.52.53.6
P/EBIT-21.419.0-20.840.146.919.0
P/E-14.226.9-13.251.848.826.9
P/CFO-20.918.011.431.316.316.3
Total Yield-7.0%6.5%-7.6%1.9%2.0%1.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.6%4.3%3.6%2.0%1.8%2.0%
D/E0.20.20.20.10.00.2
Net D/E0.00.2-0.10.1-0.10.0

Returns

NPCEMDTLIVNBSXINSPMedian
NameNeuroPaceMedtronicLivaNova Boston S.Inspire . 
1M Rtn25.1%4.2%13.3%-9.8%51.3%13.3%
3M Rtn64.2%7.0%11.6%-9.9%63.2%11.6%
6M Rtn46.3%16.3%37.1%-7.2%2.8%16.3%
12M Rtn46.8%25.1%21.8%2.7%-30.4%21.8%
3Y Rtn918.2%41.9%15.4%99.9%-48.9%41.9%
1M Excs Rtn20.3%4.6%11.2%-10.7%44.1%11.2%
3M Excs Rtn61.7%4.5%10.0%-10.5%58.6%10.0%
6M Excs Rtn32.0%2.0%22.9%-21.4%-11.5%2.0%
12M Excs Rtn27.5%10.3%12.3%-10.5%-44.1%10.3%
3Y Excs Rtn767.7%-30.1%-56.9%29.3%-116.6%-30.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity950,333
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.3%
Average Daily Volume276,695
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.43
Basic Shares Quantity33,134,606
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/202538.1%43.5%74.5%
8/12/20252.1%-9.6%9.6%
5/13/202520.5%38.9%-13.3%
1/28/20254.0%-1.6%-11.1%
11/12/202428.2%28.6%52.8%
8/13/2024-7.0%-0.5%-0.7%
3/5/2024-1.5%-3.7%-10.6%
11/6/2023-1.8%17.9%14.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive788
# Negative988
Median Positive9.8%14.0%12.3%
Median Negative-5.1%-9.8%-12.4%
Max Positive38.1%43.5%103.4%
Max Negative-17.0%-25.3%-45.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022302202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021