NeuroPace (NPCE)
Market Price (10/12/2026): $12.655 | Market Cap: $431.6 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
NeuroPace (NPCE)
Market Price (10/12/2026): $12.655Market Cap: $431.6 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.4% Key risksNPCE key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.4% |
| Key risksNPCE key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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NeuroPace (NPCE) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. FDA issued a "not approvable" letter for the Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE) indication expansion.
On July 28, 2026, NeuroPace announced that its Pre-Market Approval (PMA) supplement for the RNS System to treat idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) was deemed "not approvable in its current form" by the FDA, which requested additional supporting clinical evidence. This news led to a significant stock price decline of 10.91% on the day of the announcement, as it delayed a key potential growth driver. The company's 2026 financial guidance does not include any revenue contribution from this potential IGE indication expansion, further pushing out expectations for substantial growth from this initiative.
2. Despite beating Q2 2026 estimates and raising full-year guidance, the stock declined.
NeuroPace reported its second quarter fiscal 2026 results (for the period ending June 30, 2026) on August 11, 2026. The company exceeded analyst expectations with a reported diluted loss per share of $(0.18), beating the consensus estimate of $(0.22) by $0.04. Revenue for the quarter reached $22.8 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $22.61 million. Additionally, NeuroPace raised its full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to a range of $99.5 million to $101.5 million, up from the previous range of $99 million to $101 million. However, despite these positive financial beats and increased guidance, the stock experienced a 3.32% drop on August 11, 2026, and slipped 3.65% in after-hours trading, indicating that the market may have already factored in some of these positives or reacted more strongly to other news.
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NeuroPace (NPCE) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. FDA issued a "not approvable" letter for the Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE) indication expansion.
On July 28, 2026, NeuroPace announced that its Pre-Market Approval (PMA) supplement for the RNS System to treat idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) was deemed "not approvable in its current form" by the FDA, which requested additional supporting clinical evidence. This news led to a significant stock price decline of 10.91% on the day of the announcement, as it delayed a key potential growth driver. The company's 2026 financial guidance does not include any revenue contribution from this potential IGE indication expansion, further pushing out expectations for substantial growth from this initiative.
2. Despite beating Q2 2026 estimates and raising full-year guidance, the stock declined.
NeuroPace reported its second quarter fiscal 2026 results (for the period ending June 30, 2026) on August 11, 2026. The company exceeded analyst expectations with a reported diluted loss per share of $(0.18), beating the consensus estimate of $(0.22) by $0.04. Revenue for the quarter reached $22.8 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $22.61 million. Additionally, NeuroPace raised its full-year 2026 total revenue guidance to a range of $99.5 million to $101.5 million, up from the previous range of $99 million to $101 million. However, despite these positive financial beats and increased guidance, the stock experienced a 3.32% drop on August 11, 2026, and slipped 3.65% in after-hours trading, indicating that the market may have already factored in some of these positives or reacted more strongly to other news.
3. Persistent unprofitability and a decline in service revenue created financial headwinds.
For fiscal Q2 2026, NeuroPace reported a net loss of $(6.2) million. The company continues to face challenges in achieving profitability, with forecasts not projecting a break-even point within the next three years, anticipating a net loss of approximately US$15 million in three years. Adding to the financial pressures, service revenue significantly declined to $302,000 in Q2 2026 from $937,000 in Q2 2025, creating a headwind of over 300 basis points to total revenue growth. This was a result of the strategic decision to cease DIXI Medical distribution in December 2025 to focus solely on the RNS System. As of June 30, 2026, the company held $51.9 million in cash and short-term investments but carried $59.0 million in long-term borrowings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.3% change in NPCE stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.89 | 12.67 | -20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 96 | 99 | 3.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.6 | 4.4 | -22.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 34 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 32.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.7% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.7% change in NPCE stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.15 | 12.67 | -3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 96 | 99 | 3.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.6 | 4.4 | -4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 34 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -3.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.0% | 34.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.9% change in NPCE stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.31 | 12.67 | 22.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85 | 99 | 16.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 4.4 | 9.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 34 | -3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 22.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.3% | 28.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.2% change in NPCE stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.73 | 12.67 | 30.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55 | 99 | 79.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.5 | 4.4 | -3.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 34 | -25.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 30.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.4% | 24.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 38.9% | 17.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NPCE Return | -60% | -85% | 592% | 9% | 38% | -20% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -10% | 2% | 9% | 3% | -17% | -0% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NPCE Win Rate | 22% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 48% | 58% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NPCE Max Drawdown | - | -89% | -39% | -66% | -54% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -38% | -31% | -26% | -32% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MDT, LIVN, BSX, INSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 427 days |
In The Past
NeuroPace's stock fell -25.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 427 days |
In The Past
NeuroPace's stock fell -25.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About NeuroPace (NPCE)
NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) is a medical device company focused on developing advanced solutions for neurological disorders. Specifically, the company is dedicated to treating medically refractory focal epilepsy, a severe form of epilepsy where seizures are not controlled by medication.
The core of NeuroPace's offering is its innovative RNS System. This brain-responsive neuromodulation system provides personalized, real-time treatment directly at the source of a patient's seizures. Beyond therapeutic intervention, the RNS System also continuously records brain activity data, empowering clinicians to monitor patients effectively, both in person and remotely, to optimize treatment.
NeuroPace primarily serves hospital facilities across the United States. These hospitals acquire the RNS System for two main purposes: performing initial implant procedures for new patients suffering from medically refractory focal epilepsy, and conducting replacement procedures for existing patients when necessary.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for NeuroPace:
Medtronic for epilepsy.
Boston Scientific for brain-responsive seizure control.
Abbott for advanced epilepsy therapy.
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- RNS System: A brain-responsive neuromodulation system designed to treat medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized, real-time therapy at the seizure source, while also recording continuous brain activity data for patient monitoring.
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NeuroPace (NPCE) primarily sells its products to other organizations, not individuals.
Based on the provided background, NeuroPace's major customers are hospital facilities.
The company sells its RNS system to these facilities for initial RNS system implant procedures and for replacement procedures. The provided information does not disclose the specific names of individual hospital customers or their public symbols.
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Major Suppliers:
- Spectrum Plastics Group
- Cirtronics Corporation
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Joel Becker, CEO and Board Member
Mr. Becker is a global medical device executive with over two decades of experience. He has over 25 years of diverse experience developing markets, driving growth, and leading innovation in medical technologies, from product development to corporate strategy and commercial execution. His prior experience includes leadership roles at Viking North Venturers, the Cardiac Rhythm Management and Neuromodulation business for Integer, and St. Jude Medical.
Patrick F. Williams, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Williams has over 25 years of financial and operational management experience with public medical device companies. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer at STAAR Surgical. Prior to STAAR, he was Chief Financial Officer of Sientra before transitioning to General Manager of the miraDry® business unit. Before Sientra, he was Chief Financial Officer of ZELTIQ, a medical device company that was acquired in 2017. He has also served as Vice President at NuVasive in strategy, finance, and investor relations roles.
Martha Morrell, MD, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Morrell serves as NeuroPace's Chief Medical Officer. Her role involves overseeing the medical and clinical aspects of the company's operations, consistent with the company's focus on epilepsy treatment with its RNS system.
Dylan St. John, Chief, Operations and Development
Mr. St. John holds the position of Chief, Operations and Development at NeuroPace. His responsibilities include leading the company's operational strategies and development initiatives.
Brett Wingeier, PhD, Vice President, Research and Development
Dr. Wingeier is a proven innovator and developer of advanced medical devices, including NeuroPace's RNS technology. He served as CEO, CTO, and co-founder of Magnus Medical, which gained FDA clearance for a data-driven platform for major depression. Prior to Magnus, he was CTO, CEO, and co-founder of Halo Neuroscience, a venture-backed company focusing on non-invasive neuromodulation for human performance, from 2013 to 2019. Dr. Wingeier also previously served as a Principal Engineer at NeuroPace from 2001 to 2013, where he was instrumental in projects including the development of the RNS System and the analysis of the company's earliest clinical data.
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Here are the key risks to NeuroPace's business:
- Regulatory Approval and Payer Coverage for Market Expansion: NeuroPace's growth strategy heavily relies on expanding the approved indications for its RNS System, particularly for conditions such as idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) and pediatric use. The process of obtaining FDA approvals for these new indications is lengthy and costly. Furthermore, even with regulatory approval, there is a significant risk in securing adequate coverage and reimbursement from private payers, as well as establishing effective referral pathways and physician training to ensure broad market adoption. Delays or unfavorable outcomes in these areas could materially constrain the company's growth and market access.
- Sustained Profitability and Cash Management: NeuroPace has historically experienced operating losses and negative free cash flow. While the company has shown revenue growth, there is a risk that operating expenses could be higher than anticipated, leading to a faster depletion of cash resources and continued unprofitability. Managing financial stability during a critical growth phase, which requires substantial investment in marketing, training, and research and development for new products and expanded indications, presents an ongoing challenge.
- Intense Competition and the Need for Continuous Innovation: The medical device industry is highly competitive. NeuroPace operates in a rapidly evolving environment and must continuously innovate its RNS System technology to maintain its differentiated market position and drive adoption. The company faces potential competition from other medical device companies offering alternative epilepsy treatments. Failure to innovate effectively or to compete successfully against existing and emerging technologies could hinder market share growth and impact the company's long-term viability.
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NeuroPace's RNS System, which treats medically refractory focal epilepsy, has an addressable market of approximately $26 billion to $27 billion in the United States. This market specifically targets adult epilepsy patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy.
This U.S. market opportunity corresponds to an estimated 575,000 adults who have drug-resistant focal epilepsy.
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NeuroPace (NPCE) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, focusing on expanding the reach and utilization of its RNS System:
- Increased Adoption and Utilization of the RNS System: NeuroPace expects continued revenue growth from the increasing sales and deeper penetration of its RNS System within its current adult focal epilepsy indication. The company is actively working to expand access to RNS therapy through community pathways and deepening adoption and utilization within its existing customer base, including Level 4 Comprehensive Epilepsy Centers.
- Expansion into New Indications – Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE): A significant driver is the potential expansion of the RNS System's labeled indication to include patients with drug-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) with generalized tonic-clonic seizures. NeuroPace submitted a Premarket Approval Supplement (PMA-S) application to the FDA, supported by positive NAUTILUS trial data, with potential approval expected in the second half of 2026.
- Launch of AI-Enabled Software Products and Platform Advancements: NeuroPace is developing and launching new software tools, such as the AI-enabled Seizure ID. This tool is designed to analyze brain activity data, rapidly identify seizures and trends, and provide clinicians with clinically relevant data more efficiently, thereby enhancing the RNS platform and expanding clinician capacity. Future advancements include remote care capabilities for telehealth programming and follow-up. Seizure ID is expected to receive FDA approval in the first half of 2026.
- Expansion into the Pediatric Focal Epilepsy Population: The company is also pursuing an indication expansion for the RNS System into the drug-resistant pediatric focal epilepsy patient population, which represents a new market opportunity for future growth.
- Favorable Medicare Payment Changes: Changes in Medicare payment policies, effective in 2026, are anticipated to improve hospital and physician economics related to RNS System replacement procedures, which could act as a catalyst for increased adoption and utilization.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, NeuroPace completed the repurchase of 5,270,845 shares of its common stock from KCK Ltd. at $9.40 per share, totaling approximately $49.5 million.
- This repurchase facilitated the organized exit of KCK Ltd. as a significant shareholder.
- The company also terminated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program around February 2025.
Share Issuance
- In February 2025, NeuroPace completed an underwritten public offering of 7,475,000 shares of its common stock at $10.00 per share, including the full exercise of the underwriters' option to purchase additional shares.
- The aggregate gross proceeds from this offering were approximately $74.8 million.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2025, NeuroPace raised approximately $74.8 million in gross proceeds through a public offering of common stock.
Capital Expenditures
- NeuroPace reported capital expenditures of $97K in Q4 2025, representing a 223.3% increase from the prior quarter.
- For the fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures consumed approximately $332K.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to fund long-term assets and infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Life Sciences Tools & Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | NeuroPace | 21.8% | -22.6x | 23.2% | 94.9% | -21.8% | — |
| MEDP | Medpace | 18.7% | 35.1x | 22.1% | 157.1% | 234.9% | +257pp |
| WAT | Waters | 18.2% | 256.4x | 31.0% | 72.8% | 28.1% | +50pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 13.0% | 46.4% | 96.1% | CAH 447% · MCK 381% · COR 185% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 22.6% | 36.5% | 10.9% | HIMS 289% · RDNT 158% · DGX 81% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 37.5% | -6.1% | 5.7% | OSCR 137% · HQY 44% · ELV 18% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 1.7% | 12.6% | 5.5% | THC 324% · NHC 267% · ENSG 140% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -2.8% | 3.7% | -15.7% | POCI 11350% · UFPT 351% · GKOS 251% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 62 | -7.3% | -3.0% | -29.5% | INDV 1060% · ETON 976% · LQDA 780% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 30.5% | -5.1% | -35.7% | LNTH 327% · HAE 75% · MMSI 21% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services ← | 109 | -8.6% | -3.1% | -63.0% | SNWV 2194% · NTRA 268% · MEDP 235% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -17.4% | -24.7% | -80.3% | DNTH 1099% · CELZ 1098% · ELVN 937% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -27.9% | -61.0% | -82.3% | SPOK 77% · HSTM 19% · VEEV 4% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| NeuroPace Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold NeuroPace Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,472 |
| Op Inc LTM | 188 |
| FCF LTM | 148 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 132 |
| CFO LTM | 249 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 197 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 29.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/22/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.10 | $15.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.2% | -16.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.3% | 62.5% |
| Downside Capture | 211.30 | 132.20 |
| Upside Capture | 18.97 | 128.47 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.83 | 1.54 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 1.18 |
| Up Beta | -1.15 | 1.31 | 1.13 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 0.83 |
| Down Beta | 1.99 | 3.04 | 3.23 | 1.70 | 1.32 | 1.49 |
| Up Capture | 73% | 160% | 102% | 78% | 176% | 143% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 71 | 132 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 134% | 119% | 188% | 108% | 119% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 26 | 55 | 118 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 13.9% | 62.4% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 19.8% | 15.8% | 0.94 | 29.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.3% | 29.5% | 0.11 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.0% | 20.9% | 1.67 | -21.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.8% | 0.09 | 20.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.2% | 44.2% | -0.79 | 15.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -4.0% | 83.0% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.7% | 15.2% | 0.31 | 13.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 19.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 13.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.4% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 11.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -6.4% | 81.7% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.0% | 16.7% | 0.53 | 13.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 19.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 13.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 10.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -3.3% | -3.9% | -7.8% |
| 5/12/2026 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2026 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 38.1% | 43.5% | 74.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 2.1% | -9.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2025 | 20.5% | 38.9% | -13.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | -2.4% | -13.1% | 13.6% |
| 1/8/2025 | -0.6% | -0.8% | 4.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -9.8% | -20.2% |
| Max Positive | 38.1% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| Max Negative | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -3.3% | -3.9% | -7.8% |
| 5/12/2026 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2026 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 38.1% | 43.5% | 74.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 2.1% | -9.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2025 | 20.5% | 38.9% | -13.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | -2.4% | -13.1% | 13.6% |
| 1/8/2025 | -0.6% | -0.8% | 4.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.2% | 28.6% | 52.8% |
| 8/13/2024 | -7.0% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
| 3/5/2024 | -1.5% | -3.7% | -10.6% |
| 1/8/2024 | 12.9% | 4.8% | 43.5% |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.8% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| 8/8/2023 | 9.8% | 9.8% | 103.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.8% | -10.8% | -20.2% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.4% | 1.9% | 10.5% |
| 1/9/2023 | 35.6% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -17.0% | -22.9% | -35.2% |
| 8/11/2022 | -7.0% | -16.6% | -32.1% |
| 5/12/2022 | -1.8% | -4.2% | 0.6% |
| 3/10/2022 | 6.2% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| 1/11/2022 | 7.2% | -9.1% | -22.7% |
| 11/10/2021 | -11.4% | -25.3% | -45.4% |
| 8/12/2021 | -5.1% | -10.0% | -11.6% |
| 6/3/2021 | -3.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -9.8% | -20.2% |
| Max Positive | 38.1% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| Max Negative | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 06/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/23/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 99.50 Mil | 100.50 Mil | 101.50 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 81.59 Mil | 82.91 Mil | 84.25 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 82.0% | 82.5% | 83.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 82.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 90.00 Mil | 91.00 Mil | 92.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 91.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Income | Calculated | -10.41 Mil | -8.09 Mil | -5.75 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin - Opex | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Calculated | -10.46% | -8.05% | -5.67% | Implied by guided Rev/GM/Opex | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -8.50 Mil | -8.00 Mil | -7.50 Mil | -11.1% | Raised | Guidance: -9.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 99.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 101.00 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 99.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 RNS Revenue Growth | Reported | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 81.5% | 82.0% | 82.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 82.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 90.00 Mil | 91.00 Mil | 92.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -9.50 Mil | -9.00 Mil | -8.50 Mil | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: -9.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 21.00 Mil | 21.50 Mil | 22.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 98.00 Mil | 99.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 97.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 81.5% | 82.0% | 82.5% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -10.00 Mil | -9.50 Mil | -9.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 97.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 98.00 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 96.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Profit | Calculated | 73.72 Mil | 74.59 Mil | 75.46 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2025 Gross Margin | Reported | 76.0% | 76.5% | 77.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 75.5% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Expenses | Reported | 94.00 Mil | 94.50 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 93.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Income | Calculated | -21.28 Mil | -19.91 Mil | -18.54 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin - Opex | |||
| 2025 Operating Margin | Calculated | -21.94% | -20.42% | -18.92% | Implied by guided Rev/GM/Opex | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/25/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morrell, Martha | CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 15.97 | 25,000 | 399,250 | 797,925 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morrell, Martha | CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 15.97 | 25,000 | 399,250 | 797,925 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 12, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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