NeuroPace (NPCE)
Market Price (7/7/2026): $17.32 | Market Cap: $584.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
NeuroPace (NPCE)
Market Price (7/7/2026): $17.32Market Cap: $584.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -17 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.9% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9% Key risksNPCE key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -17 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9% |
| Key risksNPCE key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on a single product, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
NeuroPace (NPCE) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
NeuroPace reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 12, 2026, surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted loss per share of -$0.13, which was narrower than the consensus estimate of -$0.19. Total revenue, excluding DIXI Medical, grew by 20.1% year-over-year to $22.0 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.65 million. Following these positive results, NeuroPace raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $99 million to $101 million, up from the previous guidance of $98 million to $100 million. This new guidance reflects an anticipated RNS growth of 21% to 23% compared to fiscal year 2025. The company also modestly improved its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a loss of ($8.5) million to ($9.5) million.
2. FDA Approval of ECoG Assistant™.
On May 29, 2026, NeuroPace announced that it received FDA approval for its ECoG Assistant™, an AI-driven tool designed to enhance epilepsy care. This marks the company's first AI-driven, clinician-enabled feature for its RNS therapy, intended to assist in identifying electrocorticography (ECoG) of interest and support faster treatment decisions for patients.
Show more
NeuroPace (NPCE) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Full-Year Guidance.
NeuroPace reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 12, 2026, surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted loss per share of -$0.13, which was narrower than the consensus estimate of -$0.19. Total revenue, excluding DIXI Medical, grew by 20.1% year-over-year to $22.0 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.65 million. Following these positive results, NeuroPace raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $99 million to $101 million, up from the previous guidance of $98 million to $100 million. This new guidance reflects an anticipated RNS growth of 21% to 23% compared to fiscal year 2025. The company also modestly improved its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a loss of ($8.5) million to ($9.5) million.
2. FDA Approval of ECoG Assistant™.
On May 29, 2026, NeuroPace announced that it received FDA approval for its ECoG Assistant™, an AI-driven tool designed to enhance epilepsy care. This marks the company's first AI-driven, clinician-enabled feature for its RNS therapy, intended to assist in identifying electrocorticography (ECoG) of interest and support faster treatment decisions for patients.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Following the strong fiscal Q1 2026 results and the FDA approval, Wall Street analysts reiterated positive ratings and increased price targets for NPCE. As of May 29, 2026, the consensus rating from polled analysts was "Strong Buy," with an average price target of $20.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.66% from the then-current stock price. By July 2026, the average twelve-month price target was $18.83, with a high forecast of $22.00, and the stock maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from 8 analysts.
4. Continued Progress on Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE) Indication Expansion.
NeuroPace continued to advance its efforts to expand the RNS System's indications to include Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE). The company expects potential contribution from IGE following a possible NAUTILUS PMA-Supplement (PMA-S) approval in mid-2026. Furthermore, NeuroPace presented 12- and 18-month NAUTILUS data at the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) 2026, which demonstrated a 77% median reduction in generalized tonic-clonic seizures at 18 months, highlighting the potential for significant market expansion and improved patient outcomes.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.8% change in NPCE stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.15 | 17.33 | 31.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 100 | 100 | -0.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.4 | 5.9 | 33.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 34 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 31.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 24.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.5% | 27.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.2% change in NPCE stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.44 | 17.33 | 12.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95 | 100 | 4.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.4 | 5.9 | 8.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 34 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 12.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.1% | 31.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.6% change in NPCE stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.14 | 17.33 | 55.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84 | 100 | 18.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.2 | 5.9 | 41.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 34 | -6.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 55.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.6% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.7% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 286.0% change in NPCE stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 153.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.49 | 17.33 | 286.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49 | 100 | 104.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.3 | 5.9 | 153.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 34 | -25.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 286.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 286.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.5% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.7% | 15.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NPCE Return | -60% | -85% | 592% | 9% | 38% | 5% | -35% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -10% | 2% | 9% | 3% | -19% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NPCE Win Rate | 22% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 48% | 58% | 48% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NPCE Max Drawdown | - | -89% | -39% | -66% | -54% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -38% | -31% | -26% | -32% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MDT, LIVN, BSX, INSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 427 days |
In The Past
NeuroPace's stock fell -25.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | NPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 427 days |
In The Past
NeuroPace's stock fell -25.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About NeuroPace (NPCE)
NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) is a medical device company focused on developing advanced solutions for neurological disorders. Specifically, the company is dedicated to treating medically refractory focal epilepsy, a severe form of epilepsy where seizures are not controlled by medication.
The core of NeuroPace's offering is its innovative RNS System. This brain-responsive neuromodulation system provides personalized, real-time treatment directly at the source of a patient's seizures. Beyond therapeutic intervention, the RNS System also continuously records brain activity data, empowering clinicians to monitor patients effectively, both in person and remotely, to optimize treatment.
NeuroPace primarily serves hospital facilities across the United States. These hospitals acquire the RNS System for two main purposes: performing initial implant procedures for new patients suffering from medically refractory focal epilepsy, and conducting replacement procedures for existing patients when necessary.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for NeuroPace:
Medtronic for epilepsy.
Boston Scientific for brain-responsive seizure control.
Abbott for advanced epilepsy therapy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- RNS System: A brain-responsive neuromodulation system designed to treat medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized, real-time therapy at the seizure source, while also recording continuous brain activity data for patient monitoring.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NeuroPace (NPCE) primarily sells its products to other organizations, not individuals.
Based on the provided background, NeuroPace's major customers are hospital facilities.
The company sells its RNS system to these facilities for initial RNS system implant procedures and for replacement procedures. The provided information does not disclose the specific names of individual hospital customers or their public symbols.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Suppliers:
- Spectrum Plastics Group
- Cirtronics Corporation
AI Analysis | Feedback
Joel Becker, CEO and Board Member
Mr. Becker is a global medical device executive with over two decades of experience. He has over 25 years of diverse experience developing markets, driving growth, and leading innovation in medical technologies, from product development to corporate strategy and commercial execution. His prior experience includes leadership roles at Viking North Venturers, the Cardiac Rhythm Management and Neuromodulation business for Integer, and St. Jude Medical.
Patrick F. Williams, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Williams has over 25 years of financial and operational management experience with public medical device companies. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer at STAAR Surgical. Prior to STAAR, he was Chief Financial Officer of Sientra before transitioning to General Manager of the miraDry® business unit. Before Sientra, he was Chief Financial Officer of ZELTIQ, a medical device company that was acquired in 2017. He has also served as Vice President at NuVasive in strategy, finance, and investor relations roles.
Martha Morrell, MD, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Morrell serves as NeuroPace's Chief Medical Officer. Her role involves overseeing the medical and clinical aspects of the company's operations, consistent with the company's focus on epilepsy treatment with its RNS system.
Dylan St. John, Chief, Operations and Development
Mr. St. John holds the position of Chief, Operations and Development at NeuroPace. His responsibilities include leading the company's operational strategies and development initiatives.
Brett Wingeier, PhD, Vice President, Research and Development
Dr. Wingeier is a proven innovator and developer of advanced medical devices, including NeuroPace's RNS technology. He served as CEO, CTO, and co-founder of Magnus Medical, which gained FDA clearance for a data-driven platform for major depression. Prior to Magnus, he was CTO, CEO, and co-founder of Halo Neuroscience, a venture-backed company focusing on non-invasive neuromodulation for human performance, from 2013 to 2019. Dr. Wingeier also previously served as a Principal Engineer at NeuroPace from 2001 to 2013, where he was instrumental in projects including the development of the RNS System and the analysis of the company's earliest clinical data.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to NeuroPace's business:
- Regulatory Approval and Payer Coverage for Market Expansion: NeuroPace's growth strategy heavily relies on expanding the approved indications for its RNS System, particularly for conditions such as idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) and pediatric use. The process of obtaining FDA approvals for these new indications is lengthy and costly. Furthermore, even with regulatory approval, there is a significant risk in securing adequate coverage and reimbursement from private payers, as well as establishing effective referral pathways and physician training to ensure broad market adoption. Delays or unfavorable outcomes in these areas could materially constrain the company's growth and market access.
- Sustained Profitability and Cash Management: NeuroPace has historically experienced operating losses and negative free cash flow. While the company has shown revenue growth, there is a risk that operating expenses could be higher than anticipated, leading to a faster depletion of cash resources and continued unprofitability. Managing financial stability during a critical growth phase, which requires substantial investment in marketing, training, and research and development for new products and expanded indications, presents an ongoing challenge.
- Intense Competition and the Need for Continuous Innovation: The medical device industry is highly competitive. NeuroPace operates in a rapidly evolving environment and must continuously innovate its RNS System technology to maintain its differentiated market position and drive adoption. The company faces potential competition from other medical device companies offering alternative epilepsy treatments. Failure to innovate effectively or to compete successfully against existing and emerging technologies could hinder market share growth and impact the company's long-term viability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
NeuroPace's RNS System, which treats medically refractory focal epilepsy, has an addressable market of approximately $26 billion to $27 billion in the United States. This market specifically targets adult epilepsy patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy.
This U.S. market opportunity corresponds to an estimated 575,000 adults who have drug-resistant focal epilepsy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NeuroPace (NPCE) anticipates several key drivers for its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, focusing on expanding the reach and utilization of its RNS System:
- Increased Adoption and Utilization of the RNS System: NeuroPace expects continued revenue growth from the increasing sales and deeper penetration of its RNS System within its current adult focal epilepsy indication. The company is actively working to expand access to RNS therapy through community pathways and deepening adoption and utilization within its existing customer base, including Level 4 Comprehensive Epilepsy Centers.
- Expansion into New Indications – Idiopathic Generalized Epilepsy (IGE): A significant driver is the potential expansion of the RNS System's labeled indication to include patients with drug-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) with generalized tonic-clonic seizures. NeuroPace submitted a Premarket Approval Supplement (PMA-S) application to the FDA, supported by positive NAUTILUS trial data, with potential approval expected in the second half of 2026.
- Launch of AI-Enabled Software Products and Platform Advancements: NeuroPace is developing and launching new software tools, such as the AI-enabled Seizure ID. This tool is designed to analyze brain activity data, rapidly identify seizures and trends, and provide clinicians with clinically relevant data more efficiently, thereby enhancing the RNS platform and expanding clinician capacity. Future advancements include remote care capabilities for telehealth programming and follow-up. Seizure ID is expected to receive FDA approval in the first half of 2026.
- Expansion into the Pediatric Focal Epilepsy Population: The company is also pursuing an indication expansion for the RNS System into the drug-resistant pediatric focal epilepsy patient population, which represents a new market opportunity for future growth.
- Favorable Medicare Payment Changes: Changes in Medicare payment policies, effective in 2026, are anticipated to improve hospital and physician economics related to RNS System replacement procedures, which could act as a catalyst for increased adoption and utilization.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, NeuroPace completed the repurchase of 5,270,845 shares of its common stock from KCK Ltd. at $9.40 per share, totaling approximately $49.5 million.
- This repurchase facilitated the organized exit of KCK Ltd. as a significant shareholder.
- The company also terminated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program around February 2025.
Share Issuance
- In February 2025, NeuroPace completed an underwritten public offering of 7,475,000 shares of its common stock at $10.00 per share, including the full exercise of the underwriters' option to purchase additional shares.
- The aggregate gross proceeds from this offering were approximately $74.8 million.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2025, NeuroPace raised approximately $74.8 million in gross proceeds through a public offering of common stock.
Capital Expenditures
- NeuroPace reported capital expenditures of $97K in Q4 2025, representing a 223.3% increase from the prior quarter.
- For the fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures consumed approximately $332K.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to fund long-term assets and infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| NeuroPace Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold NeuroPace Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,433 |
| Op Inc LTM | 192 |
| FCF LTM | 161 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 246 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $17.33 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/22/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.13 | $12.38 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 22.6% | 40.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.1% | 60.7% |
| Downside Capture | -8.12 | 124.11 |
| Upside Capture | 57.78 | 157.70 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.7% | 27.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.24 | 0.42 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| Up Beta | -0.16 | 1.87 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.58 | 0.94 |
| Down Beta | 1.03 | 1.89 | 1.31 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 1.43 |
| Up Capture | -15% | -64% | 67% | 63% | 196% | 234% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 34 | 62 | 123 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 29% | -54% | 3% | 81% | 124% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 29 | 62 | 126 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | 69.9% | 60.7% | 1.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 21.3% | 15.6% | 1.04 | 25.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.2% | 12.5% | 1.32 | 27.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.7% | 27.8% | 0.75 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.2% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.4% | 13.8% | 0.61 | 20.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.7% | -1.23 | 19.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -5.3% | 83.3% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.8% | 14.9% | 0.27 | 13.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 19.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 19.5% | 0.27 | 2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.2% | 53.6% | 0.45 | 10.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NPCE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPCE | -3.4% | 83.0% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.4% | 16.6% | 0.51 | 13.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 19.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.62 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.8% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 13.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2026 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 38.1% | 43.5% | 74.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 2.1% | -9.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2025 | 20.5% | 38.9% | -13.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | -2.4% | -13.1% | 13.6% |
| 1/8/2025 | -0.6% | -0.8% | 4.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.2% | 28.6% | 52.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -10.0% | -21.5% |
| Max Positive | 38.1% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| Max Negative | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2026 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 38.1% | 43.5% | 74.5% |
| 8/12/2025 | 2.1% | -9.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/13/2025 | 20.5% | 38.9% | -13.3% |
| 3/4/2025 | -2.4% | -13.1% | 13.6% |
| 1/8/2025 | -0.6% | -0.8% | 4.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.2% | 28.6% | 52.8% |
| 8/13/2024 | -7.0% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
| 3/5/2024 | -1.5% | -3.7% | -10.6% |
| 1/8/2024 | 12.9% | 4.8% | 43.5% |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.8% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| 8/8/2023 | 9.8% | 9.8% | 103.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.8% | -10.8% | -20.2% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.4% | 1.9% | 10.5% |
| 1/9/2023 | 35.6% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -17.0% | -22.9% | -35.2% |
| 8/11/2022 | -7.0% | -16.6% | -32.1% |
| 5/12/2022 | -1.8% | -4.2% | 0.6% |
| 3/10/2022 | 6.2% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| 1/11/2022 | 7.2% | -9.1% | -22.7% |
| 11/10/2021 | -11.4% | -25.3% | -45.4% |
| 8/12/2021 | -5.1% | -10.0% | -11.6% |
| 6/3/2021 | -3.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -10.0% | -21.5% |
| Max Positive | 38.1% | 98.8% | 137.4% |
| Max Negative | -36.7% | -28.3% | -48.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 06/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/23/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 99.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 101.00 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 99.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 RNS Revenue Growth | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 81.5% | 82.0% | 82.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 82.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 90.00 Mil | 91.00 Mil | 92.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | -9.50 Mil | -9.00 Mil | -8.50 Mil | -5.3% | Raised | Guidance: -9.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 21.00 Mil | 21.50 Mil | 22.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 98.00 Mil | 99.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 97.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 81.5% | 82.0% | 82.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 76.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | -10.00 Mil | -9.50 Mil | -9.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 97.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 98.00 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 96.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Margin | 76.0% | 76.5% | 77.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 75.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Operating Expenses | 94.00 Mil | 94.50 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 93.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.