Neptune Insurance (NP)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $28.01 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Neptune Insurance (NP)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $28.01Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 23x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 56x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 111x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% Key risksNP key risks include [1] significant geographic concentration of policies in catastrophe-prone states, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 23x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 56x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 111x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Key risksNP key risks include [1] significant geographic concentration of policies in catastrophe-prone states, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Neptune Insurance (NP) stock has gained about 10% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results and Increased Full-Year Guidance: Neptune Insurance reported a 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $37.8 million for Q1 2026, surpassing analyst expectations of $36.96 million. This robust performance was further highlighted by a 26% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $21.6 million. Following these positive results, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue expectations to $195 million and maintained adjusted EBITDA margin guidance between 60% and 61%.
2. Robust Growth in Flood Insurance Policies and Premiums, Enhanced by AI-driven Technology: Neptune Flood significantly expanded its market presence, surpassing 300,000 policies in force and $400 million in premium by early May 2026. This growth was driven by the company's AI-native platform, which leverages proprietary artificial intelligence and advanced data science to streamline underwriting, pricing, and policy issuance. Further demonstrating its innovation, Neptune launched a digital flood insurance app within ChatGPT in March, allowing for real-time preliminary flood insurance quotes through a conversational AI interface.
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1. Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results and Increased Full-Year Guidance: Neptune Insurance reported a 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $37.8 million for Q1 2026, surpassing analyst expectations of $36.96 million. This robust performance was further highlighted by a 26% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $21.6 million. Following these positive results, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue expectations to $195 million and maintained adjusted EBITDA margin guidance between 60% and 61%.
2. Robust Growth in Flood Insurance Policies and Premiums, Enhanced by AI-driven Technology: Neptune Flood significantly expanded its market presence, surpassing 300,000 policies in force and $400 million in premium by early May 2026. This growth was driven by the company's AI-native platform, which leverages proprietary artificial intelligence and advanced data science to streamline underwriting, pricing, and policy issuance. Further demonstrating its innovation, Neptune launched a digital flood insurance app within ChatGPT in March, allowing for real-time preliminary flood insurance quotes through a conversational AI interface.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.8% change in NP stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.50 | 28.00 | 9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 135 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NP | 9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 16.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.9% | 31.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in NP stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.68 | 28.00 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 135 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NP | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 14.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.6% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NP | -12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 6.4% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NP | -12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 61.7% | 29.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NP Return | -13% | -29% | 0% | 0% | -9% | -6% | -47% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 8% | 13% | 24% | -9% | -26% | 25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NP Win Rate | 50% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 46% | 50% | 67% | 48% | 12% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NP Max Drawdown | -25% | -34% | 0% | 0% | -28% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -21% | -18% | -16% | -25% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTW, ERIE, EZRA, MRSH, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 773.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1072 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2134 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Neptune Insurance's stock fell -7.0% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 7.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 773.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1072 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2134 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Neptune Insurance's stock fell -7.0% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 7.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Neptune Insurance (NP)
Neenah, Inc., a specialty materials company, engages in the performance-based technical products, and fine paper and packaging products businesses in North America, Germany, Spain, and rest of Europe. Its Technical Products segment offers filtration media for transportation, water, and other end use applications; saturated and unsaturated crepe, and flat paper tapes; and coated lightweight abrasive papers for automotive, construction, metal, and woodworking industries. It also provides digital transfer media; label and tag products for digital printing; latex saturated and coated, premask, medical packaging, digital transfer, publishing, security, clean room, passports, and release papers; furniture backers; and release liners. The company's Fine Paper and Packaging segment offers writing, text, cover, and specialty papers; and envelopes used in commercial printing services, corporate identity packages, and advertising collaterals. It also provides packaging products for retail, cosmetics, spirits, and electronics end-use markets; bright papers for direct mails, advertising inserts, scrapbooks, and marketing collaterals; cardstock, stationary paper, journals, and planners; and translucent and art papers; and papers for optical scanning and other specialized applications. The company markets its products under the JET-PRO SofStretch, KIMDURA, PREVAIL, NEENAH, GESSNER, CLASSIC, CLASSIC CREST, ENVIRONMENT, ROYAL SUNDANCE, TOUCHE, ASTROBRIGHTS, SOUTHWORTH, ESTATE LABEL, IMAGEMAX, SKIVERTEX, PELLAQ, CORVON, SENZO, and KIVAR brand names through authorized paper distributors, converters, retailers, and specialty businesses, as well as direct to end users. The company was formerly known as Neenah Paper, Inc. and changed its name to Neenah, Inc. in January 2018. Neenah, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.
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The key risks to Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (symbol: NP) are as follows:- Reliance on Capacity Providers: Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. operates as a managing general agent (MGA), underwriting and administering insurance policies on behalf of a diverse panel of insurance and reinsurance companies, referred to as capacity providers. The company does not take any balance sheet insurance risk or have claims handling responsibility related to the policies it sells. Therefore, Neptune's business is highly dependent on its relationships with these capacity providers and their willingness to continue taking on flood policies.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Changes in Flood Insurance Programs: Neptune operates in the specialized flood insurance market, which is significantly influenced by government programs like the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) run by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The company faces scrutiny regarding its business model and the impact of its artificial intelligence-driven underwriting on insurance costs. Potential changes in FEMA's Risk 2.0 initiative or the role of the NFIP could impact Neptune's growth opportunities and market penetration.
- Accuracy and Transparency of AI Underwriting and Pricing: There are concerns regarding Neptune's reliance on its in-house AI underwriting platform, "Triton," particularly whether the company can adequately explain its inputs, how premiums are calculated, and if customers can challenge or understand the premiums they are paying. Lack of transparency or perceived unfairness in AI-driven pricing could lead to regulatory challenges, reputational damage, or customer distrust.
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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (symbol: NP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Expansion into adjacent insurance markets: Neptune Insurance is diversifying its product offerings beyond flood insurance. The company has launched a beta indemnity earthquake product and provides parametric earthquake insurance, indicating a strategic move to tap into new market segments and offer more comprehensive coverage options.
- Continued growth in the specialized U.S. flood insurance market: As a prominent player in the U.S. flood insurance market, Neptune Insurance is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for specialized flood and catastrophe coverage, driven by climate-related risks. The company has consistently achieved record new business sales and maintains strong policy retention rates, which are crucial for sustained revenue expansion.
- Leveraging proprietary AI platforms and data science for enhanced underwriting and operational efficiency: Neptune Insurance utilizes its proprietary AI platforms, Triton for underwriting and Poseidon for policy management, along with advanced data science. This technological advantage supports its asset-light business model, enabling efficient and accurate underwriting and policy administration. This operational efficiency is a significant factor in driving scalable and profitable growth.
- Broadening distribution networks and strengthening capacity provider relationships: The company's strategy includes actively onboarding new agents and expanding its diversified panel of capacity providers. As of October 2025, Neptune had grown its panel to 39 capacity providers across seven programs. This expansion of distribution channels and partnerships directly contributes to an increase in written premiums, which is a primary driver of Neptune's commission revenue.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | HOMB | Home BancShares | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,030 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,314 |
| FCF LTM | 1,567 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,165 |
| CFO LTM | 1,800 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,404 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.4 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.1 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 18.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 12.7% | 17.4% | 22.3% |
| 11/12/2025 | -1.2% | -7.8% | 9.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 12.7% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -7.8% | |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 17.4% | 22.3% |
| Max Negative | -1.2% | -7.8% | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgess, Trevor R | CEO & Chairman of the Board | Direct | Buy | 3132026 | 18.71 | 50,000 | 935,345 | 38,965,799 | Form |
| 2 | Vostrizansky, Michael Warren | Direct | Buy | 2242026 | 21.50 | 23,000 | 494,415 | 494,415 | Form | |
| 3 | Steiner, James | CFO and Secretary | Direct | Buy | 11142025 | 20.00 | 119,050 | 2,381,000 | 87,694,300 | Form |
| 4 | Carlon, Jonathan Winant | Direct | Buy | 11142025 | 20.00 | 5,000 | 100,000 | 13,070,000 | Form | |
| 5 | Burgess, Trevor R | CEO & Chairman of the Board | Direct | Buy | 11142025 | 20.00 | 50,000 | 1,000,000 | 40,659,280 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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