Neptune Insurance (NP)


Market Price (10/3/2026): $27.31 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Neptune Insurance (NP)


Market Price (10/3/2026): $27.31
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments.

Key risks
NP key risks include [1] significant geographic concentration of policies in catastrophe-prone states, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments.
1 Key risks
NP key risks include [1] significant geographic concentration of policies in catastrophe-prone states, Show more.

NP in ETFs

Weight = NP's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.03%
VB0.01%
VTWO0.04%
IWO0.02%
SCHA0.02%
VBK0.02%
+4 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/1/2026

Neptune Insurance (NP) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Substantial Insider Selling Indicated Lack of Confidence. Neptune Insurance (NP) experienced significant insider selling, with a net total of $419.8 million in shares sold by insiders over the trailing six months, encompassing the period since fiscal Q2 2026 ended on June 30, 2026. This substantial divestment by company insiders suggests a potential lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.

2. Deteriorating Property Insurance Market Conditions. The broader property and casualty (P&C) insurance market faced rapidly decelerating property pricing and increased competition during fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1 to September 30, 2026). This resulted in expected renewal rates for property insurance ranging from -5% to -15%, impacting companies like Neptune Insurance, which specializes in residential and commercial flood insurance.

Show more
Updated on 10/1/2026

Neptune Insurance (NP) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Substantial Insider Selling Indicated Lack of Confidence. Neptune Insurance (NP) experienced significant insider selling, with a net total of $419.8 million in shares sold by insiders over the trailing six months, encompassing the period since fiscal Q2 2026 ended on June 30, 2026. This substantial divestment by company insiders suggests a potential lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.

2. Deteriorating Property Insurance Market Conditions. The broader property and casualty (P&C) insurance market faced rapidly decelerating property pricing and increased competition during fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1 to September 30, 2026). This resulted in expected renewal rates for property insurance ranging from -5% to -15%, impacting companies like Neptune Insurance, which specializes in residential and commercial flood insurance.

3. Negative Equity Position Raised Financial Concerns. As of the period covering Q2 2026 and into fiscal Q3 2026, Neptune Insurance reported a negative equity position of -US$222 million, which was identified as a financial risk. This indicates a weakened financial structure that can deter investors.

4. Dependence on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Created Regulatory Uncertainty. Neptune Insurance's significant reliance on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has been highlighted as a potential risk due to the need for Congressional backing for any changes to its compensation structure, raising concerns about future profitability. News in fiscal Q3 2026 indicated that $2.6 billion in NFIP subsidies remained five years into Risk Rating 2.0, underscoring ongoing program complexities and potential regulatory shifts.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.5% change in NP stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)630202610012026Change
Stock Price ($)31.5027.24-13.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�1820.0%
Net Income Margin (%)�21.5%0.0%
P/E Multiple�96.30.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)135138-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NP-13.5% 
Market (SPY)2.3%-20.6%
Sector (XLF)-0.3%24.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.6% change in NP stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)331202610012026Change
Stock Price ($)24.1927.2412.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)16018213.9%
Net Income Margin (%)23.4%21.5%-8.5%
P/E Multiple89.396.37.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1381380.3%
Cumulative Contribution12.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NP12.6% 
Market (SPY)17.8%-13.6%
Sector (XLF)8.7%17.2%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NP-14.9% 
Market (SPY)15.6%4.6%
Sector (XLF)0.4%27.2%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/1/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NP-14.9% 
Market (SPY)84.9%4.6%
Sector (XLF)68.2%27.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NP Return-13%-29%0%0%-9%-5%-47%
Peers Return25%9%14%24%-9%-14%52%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NP Win Rate50%17%0%0%8%67% 
Peers Win Rate60%48%52%67%50%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NP Max Drawdown-25%-34%0%0%-28%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-20%-17%-15%-26%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTW, ERIE, MRSH, AJG, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNPS&P 500
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-10.1%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven41 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-37.0%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.8%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven73 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-19.2%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.8%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven10 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-88.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven773.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1072 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-24.0%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.6%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven2134 days47 days

Compare to WTW, ERIE, MRSH, AON, AJG

In The Past

Neptune Insurance's stock fell -7.0% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 7.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNPS&P 500
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-37.0%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.8%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven73 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-88.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven773.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1072 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-24.0%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.6%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven2134 days47 days

Compare to WTW, ERIE, MRSH, AON, AJG

In The Past

Neptune Insurance's stock fell -7.0% during the 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff. Such a loss loss requires a 7.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Neptune Insurance (NP)

Neptune Insurance (NP) operates as a specialty materials company, primarily engaged in two distinct business segments: Technical Products and Fine Paper & Packaging. The company develops and manufactures a wide array of specialized materials, catering to diverse industrial and consumer markets across North America and Europe.

The Technical Products segment focuses on performance-based materials for critical applications. Its offerings include advanced filtration media for transportation and water purification, various industrial tapes, and coated lightweight abrasive papers for automotive, construction, and woodworking industries. This segment also produces specialized papers for digital transfer, labels, tags, medical packaging, security, and release liners, serving customers that require high-performance, engineered solutions.

Conversely, the Fine Paper & Packaging segment provides aesthetically rich and functional paper products. This includes premium writing, text, and cover papers for commercial printing, corporate identity, and advertising. The company also offers a comprehensive range of packaging products for retail, cosmetics, spirits, and electronics markets, alongside bright papers for direct mail, advertising, and scrapbooking. Additionally, it supplies cardstock, stationery, art papers, and specialized optical scanning papers, reaching customers in commercial printing, luxury branding, and consumer stationery sectors.

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The key risks to Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (symbol: NP) are as follows:
  1. Reliance on Capacity Providers: Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. operates as a managing general agent (MGA), underwriting and administering insurance policies on behalf of a diverse panel of insurance and reinsurance companies, referred to as capacity providers. The company does not take any balance sheet insurance risk or have claims handling responsibility related to the policies it sells. Therefore, Neptune's business is highly dependent on its relationships with these capacity providers and their willingness to continue taking on flood policies.
  2. Regulatory Scrutiny and Changes in Flood Insurance Programs: Neptune operates in the specialized flood insurance market, which is significantly influenced by government programs like the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) run by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The company faces scrutiny regarding its business model and the impact of its artificial intelligence-driven underwriting on insurance costs. Potential changes in FEMA's Risk 2.0 initiative or the role of the NFIP could impact Neptune's growth opportunities and market penetration.
  3. Accuracy and Transparency of AI Underwriting and Pricing: There are concerns regarding Neptune's reliance on its in-house AI underwriting platform, "Triton," particularly whether the company can adequately explain its inputs, how premiums are calculated, and if customers can challenge or understand the premiums they are paying. Lack of transparency or perceived unfairness in AI-driven pricing could lead to regulatory challenges, reputational damage, or customer distrust.

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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (symbol: NP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion into adjacent insurance markets: Neptune Insurance is diversifying its product offerings beyond flood insurance. The company has launched a beta indemnity earthquake product and provides parametric earthquake insurance, indicating a strategic move to tap into new market segments and offer more comprehensive coverage options.
  2. Continued growth in the specialized U.S. flood insurance market: As a prominent player in the U.S. flood insurance market, Neptune Insurance is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for specialized flood and catastrophe coverage, driven by climate-related risks. The company has consistently achieved record new business sales and maintains strong policy retention rates, which are crucial for sustained revenue expansion.
  3. Leveraging proprietary AI platforms and data science for enhanced underwriting and operational efficiency: Neptune Insurance utilizes its proprietary AI platforms, Triton for underwriting and Poseidon for policy management, along with advanced data science. This technological advantage supports its asset-light business model, enabling efficient and accurate underwriting and policy administration. This operational efficiency is a significant factor in driving scalable and profitable growth.
  4. Broadening distribution networks and strengthening capacity provider relationships: The company's strategy includes actively onboarding new agents and expanding its diversified panel of capacity providers. As of October 2025, Neptune had grown its panel to 39 capacity providers across seven programs. This expansion of distribution channels and partnerships directly contributes to an increase in written premiums, which is a primary driver of Neptune's commission revenue.

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Peer Outperformance in Insurance Brokers

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Share of Insurance Brokers constituents that NP has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
—
insufficient peer history
3Y
—
insufficient peer history
5Y
—
insufficient peer history
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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NPWTWERIEMRSHAJGAONMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.Marsh & .Arthur J.Aon  
Mkt Price-289.29221.00170.09225.00270.36225.00
Mkt Cap-27.210.281.657.857.657.6
Rev LTM-10,1024,18627,94715,75517,57715,755
Op Inc LTM-2,369-6,0422,6915,0033,847
FCF LTM-1,689-4,7672,2853,2482,766
FCF 3Y Avg-1,322-4,3502,1973,0262,612
CFO LTM-1,923-5,0782,4493,5312,990
CFO 3Y Avg-1,559-4,6742,3573,2692,813

Growth & Margins

NPWTWERIEMRSHAJGAONMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.Marsh & .Arthur J.Aon  
Rev Chg LTM-3.0%2.7%8.3%26.3%4.9%4.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.7%7.0%9.0%19.6%11.1%9.0%
Rev Chg Q-9.1%1.7%6.2%24.2%2.2%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.1%0.5%1.6%5.2%0.5%1.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM-7.4%--0.7%2.4%14.3%4.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-11.9%-9.5%15.5%8.6%10.7%
Op Mgn LTM-23.5%-21.6%17.1%28.5%22.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.1%-23.1%19.1%27.6%22.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%--0.1%-1.1%0.2%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-19.0%-18.2%15.5%20.1%18.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-15.8%-18.1%18.5%20.3%18.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-16.7%-17.1%14.5%18.5%16.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.4%-16.8%17.2%18.8%17.0%

Valuation

NPWTWERIEMRSHAJGAONMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.Marsh & .Arthur J.Aon  
Mkt Cap-27.210.281.657.857.657.6
P/S-2.72.42.93.73.32.9
P/Op Inc-11.5-13.521.511.512.5
P/EBIT-11.9-12.921.99.912.4
P/E-17.417.720.536.814.717.7
P/CFO-14.1-16.123.616.316.2
Total Yield-7.0%8.2%7.0%3.8%7.8%7.0%
Dividend Yield-1.3%2.6%2.1%1.2%1.1%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.9%-4.6%3.5%4.3%4.5%
D/E-0.30.00.30.20.30.3
Net D/E-0.2-0.00.30.20.30.2

Returns

NPWTWERIEMRSHAJGAONMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.Marsh & .Arthur J.Aon  
1M Rtn--13.2%-13.7%-8.8%-13.9%-17.1%-13.7%
3M Rtn-1.4%-14.3%-3.6%-10.6%-24.2%-10.6%
6M Rtn-0.9%-10.4%-1.0%4.0%-15.9%-1.0%
12M Rtn--14.8%-27.7%-13.3%-25.6%-24.2%-24.2%
3Y Rtn-44.3%-20.3%-4.7%3.0%-13.7%-4.7%
1M Excs Rtn--13.7%-14.2%-9.2%-14.3%-17.6%-14.2%
3M Excs Rtn--1.0%-16.7%-6.1%-13.0%-26.6%-13.0%
6M Excs Rtn--15.1%-26.0%-15.8%-11.5%-31.7%-15.8%
12M Excs Rtn--29.7%-43.6%-27.8%-40.7%-37.8%-37.8%
3Y Excs Rtn--37.4%-100.4%-85.6%-76.8%-94.1%-85.6%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Managing general agency (MGA) that offers residential and commercial insurance products16011985
Total16011985


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$27.24 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.8 
First Trading Date11/17/2004 
Distance from 52W High-22.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$26.02$26.02
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA4.7%4.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility43.0%64.8%
Downside Capture112.1738.52
Upside Capture-10.1342.97
Correlation (SPY)-21.0%3.6%
NP Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.180.44-0.86-0.620.190.05
Up Beta-4.98-1.52-2.700.320.480.08
Down Beta-2.60-1.80-3.37-3.35-0.20-0.05
Up Capture2%74%-7%0%9%1%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days6162861119119
Down Capture311%225%79%-49%47%27%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days16263665132132

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NP
NP9.9%64.8%0.39-
Sector ETF (XLF)0.5%14.8%-0.1927.2%
Equity (SPY)15.7%13.0%0.854.6%
Gold (GLD)7.7%29.6%0.252.3%
Commodities (DBC)45.6%20.8%1.69-13.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.2%13.6%-0.1619.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-25.7%44.5%-0.5418.2%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NP
NP-4.6%54.8%-0.03-
Sector ETF (XLF)8.8%18.3%0.3531.9%
Equity (SPY)13.0%17.2%0.5718.4%
Gold (GLD)18.6%18.9%0.800.4%
Commodities (DBC)10.6%19.6%0.42-6.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.4%18.9%-0.0822.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.6%52.3%0.4318.7%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NP
NP-6.2%39.6%-0.10-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.7%22.1%0.5250.1%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7240.6%
Gold (GLD)11.6%16.4%0.580.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%18.1%0.3811.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%20.7%0.1739.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)64.2%66.2%1.0413.8%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 8312026-16.6%
Average Daily Volume0.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity137.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 10/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/22/2026-3.2%-7.7%-2.9%
2/18/202612.7%17.4%22.3%
11/12/2025-1.2%-7.8%9.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive112
# Negative221
Median Positive12.7%17.4%15.8%
Median Negative-2.2%-7.7%-2.9%
Max Positive12.7%17.4%22.3%
Max Negative-3.2%-7.8%-2.9%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/22/2026-3.2%-7.7%-2.9%
2/18/202612.7%17.4%22.3%
11/12/2025-1.2%-7.8%9.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive112
# Negative221
Median Positive12.7%17.4%15.8%
Median Negative-2.2%-7.7%-2.9%
Max Positive12.7%17.4%22.3%
Max Negative-3.2%-7.8%-2.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/27/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202510/01/2025424B4
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/27/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202510/01/2025424B4

Insider Activity

Updated 10/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Carlon, Jonathan Winant DirectSell915202631.1550,0001,557,59518,800,172Form
2Steiner, JamesChief Financial OfficerDirectSell814202631.7157,0121,807,970118,890,249Form
3Steiner, JamesChief Financial OfficerDirectSell814202631.0842,9881,335,874118,275,280Form
4Bsiv, Hold 101, LP DirectSell730202633.221,632,16054,220,355419,254,937Form
5Ftv, Vii, LP See footnotesSell730202633.221,867,84062,049,645479,794,500Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Carlon, Jonathan Winant DirectSell915202631.1550,0001,557,59518,800,172Form
2Steiner, JamesChief Financial OfficerDirectSell814202631.7157,0121,807,970118,890,249Form
3Steiner, JamesChief Financial OfficerDirectSell814202631.0842,9881,335,874118,275,280Form
4Bsiv, Hold 101, LP DirectSell730202633.221,632,16054,220,355419,254,937Form
5Ftv, Vii, LP See footnotesSell730202633.221,867,84062,049,645479,794,500Form
6Bsiv, Hold 101, LP DirectSell519202626.40688,40318,173,839376,271,755Form
7Ftv, Vii, LP See footnotesSell519202626.40787,80620,798,078430,604,618Form
8Bsiv, Hold 101, LP DirectSell519202626.404,589,351121,158,866394,445,594Form
9Ftv, Vii, LP See footnotesSell519202626.405,252,044138,653,962451,402,697Form
10Burgess, Trevor RCEO & Chairman of the BoardDirectBuy313202618.7150,000935,34538,965,799Form
11Vostrizansky, Michael Warren DirectBuy224202621.5023,000494,415494,415Form
12Steiner, JamesCFO and SecretaryDirectBuy1114202520.00119,0502,381,00087,694,300Form
13Carlon, Jonathan Winant DirectBuy1114202520.005,000100,00013,070,000Form
14Burgess, Trevor RCEO & Chairman of the BoardDirectBuy1114202520.0050,0001,000,00040,659,280Form
15Ftv, Vii, LP See footnotesSell1003202518.75678,01912,712,856419,074,331Form
16Bsiv, Hold 101, LP DirectSell1003202518.75820,12315,377,306366,196,350Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 3, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Azora Capital LP$23.1 Mil1.5%45ADD +28.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Azora Capital LP$23.1 Mil1.5%45ADD +28.2%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Azora Capital LP$23.1 Mil1.5%45ADD +28.2%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/1/2026