Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
 
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments.
  
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Digital Payments.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The public company Neptune Insurance (symbol: NP) experienced a significant stock price movement of approximately -29.46% from its 52-week high of $33.23 to a recent price of $23.44 by early December 2025. This decline occurred in the approximate period from its initial public offering (IPO) on October 1, 2025, to December 4, 2025. 1. 1. Post-IPO Volatility and Market Adjustment: Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 1, 2025. The stock's initial trading period saw it reach a 52-week high of $33.23. The subsequent decline can be attributed to the typical volatility experienced by newly public companies as the market assesses their valuation and performance after the initial IPO enthusiasm. 2. 2. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss: On November 12, 2025, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, falling short of analyst estimates of $0.12 by 8.33%. Missing earnings expectations, especially for a company recently gone public, can lead to a negative re-evaluation by investors and contribute to a stock price decline. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NP Return-18%-13%-29%0%0%-27%-63%
Peers Return12%8%1%13%17%-16%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NP Win Rate50%50%17%0%0%0% 
Peers Win Rate60%54%40%38%48%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NP Max Drawdown-50%-18%-29%0%0%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-15%-20%-11%-1%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WTW, ERIE, HGIA, NP, MMC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-92.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1237.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1801 days1480 days

Compare to WTW, ERIE, HGIA, NP, MMC


In The Past

Neptune Insurance's stock fell -47.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2021. A -47.6% loss requires a 90.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Neptune Insurance (NP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Neptune Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NPWTWERIEHGIAMMCMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.HengguangMarsh & . 
Mkt Price23.74316.53296.21-183.87240.04
Mkt Cap-31.013.7-90.331.0
Rev LTM-9,8074,076-26,4539,807
Op Inc LTM-2,268--6,1464,207
FCF LTM-1,381--4,8253,103
FCF 3Y Avg-1,176--4,0572,617
CFO LTM-1,603--5,0873,345
CFO 3Y Avg-1,412--4,3982,905

Growth & Margins

NPWTWERIEHGIAMMCMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.HengguangMarsh & . 
Rev Chg LTM--0.0%12.0%-10.5%10.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.5%14.5%-8.3%8.3%
Rev Chg Q--0.0%6.7%-11.5%6.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--0.0%2.0%-2.5%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM-23.1%--23.2%23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.0%--23.1%22.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%---0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-16.3%--19.2%17.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.6%--18.1%16.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-14.1%--18.2%16.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-12.2%--16.7%14.4%

Valuation

NPWTWERIEHGIAMMCMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.HengguangMarsh & . 
Mkt Cap-31.013.7-90.331.0
P/S-3.53.6-3.73.6
P/EBIT-11.4--15.313.4
P/E-16.023.5-24.023.5
P/CFO-21.1--19.520.3
Total Yield-7.0%5.9%-5.8%5.9%
Dividend Yield-0.8%1.7%-1.7%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.1%--4.0%4.1%
D/E-0.20.0-0.20.2
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.20.1

Returns

NPWTWERIEHGIAMMCMedian
NameNeptune .Willis T.Erie Ind.HengguangMarsh & . 
1M Rtn-6.0%0.8%3.8%-3.8%2.3%
3M Rtn-25.8%-3.0%-9.4%--10.0%-9.7%
6M Rtn-25.8%2.9%-17.0%--20.2%-18.6%
12M Rtn-25.8%-2.7%-30.6%--18.8%-22.3%
3Y Rtn-25.8%32.9%10.9%-10.6%10.7%
1M Excs Rtn-6.0%0.8%3.8%-3.8%2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-31.2%-9.1%-16.9%--15.7%-16.3%
6M Excs Rtn-40.5%-11.8%-31.7%--34.9%-33.3%
12M Excs Rtn-39.4%-14.1%-45.3%--33.5%-36.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-98.6%-35.4%-55.2%--58.6%-56.9%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity441,952
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-10.0%
Average Daily Volume212,608
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.08

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
123120249032025S-1 12/31/2024