Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Wireless Services, Drone Technology, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.72, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -69 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1243%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 404x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -45%
3   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 275%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -842%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -853%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
6   Key risks
NN key risks include [1] dependence on a single, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Wireless Services, Drone Technology, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.72, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -69 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1243%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 404x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -45%
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 275%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -842%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -853%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
8 Key risks
NN key risks include [1] dependence on a single, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the stock movement for NextNav (NN) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Q2 2024 Earnings Miss: NextNav Inc. reported a larger-than-expected loss of $0.21 per share for the second quarter of 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.15. The company also failed to meet revenue estimates for the quarter.

2. Q3 2025 Revenue Shortfall: Although NextNav reported a narrower loss per share in Q3 2025 than analysts anticipated, its revenue for the quarter came in at $887,000, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.67 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NN Return-13%-67%52%250%9%
Peers Return17%20%-15%4%0%58%97%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NN Win Rate100%67%33%67%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%67%42%53%47%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NN Max Drawdown-35%-77%-41%-18%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-30%-24%-27%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IRDM, TRMB, GRMN, VSAT, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven643.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven592 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-1.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven9 days148 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, CVLT, S, AGPU


In The Past

NextNav's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 643.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NextNav (NN)

Better Bets than NextNav (NN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
15.3%15.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.4%8.4%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NextNav

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NNIRDMTRMBGRMNVSATLHXMedian
NameNextNav Iridium .Trimble Garmin Viasat L3Harris. 
Mkt Price16.7917.0480.88201.6233.81287.4557.34
Mkt Cap2.21.819.338.84.653.811.9
Rev LTM68723,6016,9434,58321,3734,092
Op Inc LTM-692335741,778-502,366403
FCF LTM-473053151,3321472,164310
FCF 3Y Avg-422794531,222-4381,828366
CFO LTM-473963411,5631,0592,507727
CFO 3Y Avg-403584871,4197592,208623

Growth & Margins

NNIRDMTRMBGRMNVSATLHXMedian
NameNextNav Iridium .Trimble Garmin Viasat L3Harris. 
Rev Chg LTM11.6%7.3%-0.9%16.6%1.2%2.9%5.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg21.7%8.6%-1.3%12.2%24.0%8.4%10.4%
Rev Chg Q-44.8%6.7%2.9%11.7%1.7%2.4%2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-11.5%1.7%0.7%2.7%0.4%0.6%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-1,243.4%26.7%15.9%25.6%-1.1%11.1%13.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1,412.9%19.2%13.5%23.2%-10.0%10.4%11.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-239.1%1.3%1.2%-0.4%1.3%0.2%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-841.6%45.5%9.5%22.5%23.1%11.7%17.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-880.1%43.3%13.3%23.9%17.9%11.0%15.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-853.0%35.0%8.8%19.2%3.2%10.1%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-937.3%33.7%12.4%20.5%-12.1%9.2%10.8%

Valuation

NNIRDMTRMBGRMNVSATLHXMedian
NameNextNav Iridium .Trimble Garmin Viasat L3Harris. 
Mkt Cap2.21.819.338.84.653.811.9
P/S404.22.15.45.61.02.53.9
P/EBIT-31.67.839.221.8-46.621.314.5
P/E-14.614.453.924.7-8.731.719.5
P/CFO-48.04.656.524.84.321.413.0
Total Yield-6.9%10.4%1.9%5.7%-11.4%4.8%3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.5%0.0%1.6%0.0%1.7%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.6%9.6%3.0%4.0%-24.1%4.2%3.5%
D/E0.11.00.10.01.50.20.2
Net D/E0.01.00.1-0.11.30.20.1

Returns

NNIRDMTRMBGRMNVSATLHXMedian
NameNextNav Iridium .Trimble Garmin Viasat L3Harris. 
1M Rtn40.4%7.0%5.0%5.3%11.4%3.5%6.2%
3M Rtn-1.6%-5.0%-2.3%-13.9%14.2%1.7%-2.0%
6M Rtn15.9%-39.1%12.6%1.6%162.3%16.1%14.3%
12M Rtn7.6%-40.1%12.9%-2.0%284.6%37.2%10.3%
3Y Rtn499.6%-63.9%66.0%135.3%10.0%49.6%57.8%
1M Excs Rtn31.3%3.1%3.9%3.9%-6.1%-2.1%3.5%
3M Excs Rtn-4.4%-7.4%-3.6%-16.4%11.2%-0.6%-4.0%
6M Excs Rtn1.3%-54.1%-2.2%-12.7%150.1%2.0%-0.4%
12M Excs Rtn-17.3%-53.4%-2.0%-15.8%257.0%21.2%-8.9%
3Y Excs Rtn398.1%-136.1%-22.8%52.5%-62.1%-30.6%-26.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment4   
Commercial 30 
Equipment sales 000
Government contracts 000
Other  00
Total4411


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment-72   
Total-72   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,263,515
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.6%
Average Daily Volume1,172,588
Days-to-Cover Short Interest14.72
Basic Shares Quantity133,335,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-6.1%-0.2%27.8%
8/6/2025-10.4%-5.0%2.7%
3/12/20259.1%14.9%16.1%
11/13/20244.4%13.2%23.8%
8/7/20242.0%3.3%-4.1%
3/13/2024-24.4%-14.0%32.2%
11/8/2023-0.6%-1.0%-19.7%
8/9/202312.8%26.0%29.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive678
# Negative765
Median Positive7.0%13.2%21.3%
Median Negative-6.1%-4.6%-14.3%
Max Positive14.7%26.0%32.2%
Max Negative-24.4%-14.0%-19.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023313202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022330202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0SAMBERG JOSEPH D11242025Buy11.8658,457693,300115,582,816Form
1Insley Susan BrasseChief Operating Officer11192025Sell12.7812,189155,7751,677,388Form
2SAMBERG JOSEPH D11172025Sell12.35540,0006,669,000119,301,000Form