Northann (NCL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.3806 | Market Cap: $4.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Household Appliances
Northann (NCL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.3806Market Cap: $4.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Household Appliances
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 665% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 665% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NCL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Northann (NCL) experienced a significant stock price decline of 64.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Delayed Q2 2025 10-Q Filing.
Northann Corp. announced a delay in filing its Form 10-Q for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, on August 14, 2025, citing the need for additional time to compile and verify data. This delay raised concerns about the company's financial reporting and operational stability.
2. Approval of a Reverse Stock Split.
On September 25, 2025, Northann Corp. announced its Board of Directors approved a one-for-eight reverse stock split, effective October 7, 2025. This action was explicitly taken to increase the per-share price to maintain the company's listing on the NYSE American, often signaling underlying financial distress and leading to negative investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCL Return | - | - | - | - | -82% | -81% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 3% | -13% | -6% | 2% | -19% | -18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCL Win Rate | - | - | - | 0% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 22% | 15% | 27% | 32% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -89% | -94% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -5% | -18% | -13% | -24% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SN, IRBT, ALH, XWIN, WHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NCL has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Northann Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Northann
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 547 |
| Op Inc LTM | -4 |
| FCF LTM | -1 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2 |
| CFO LTM | -1 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -27.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -19.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 4.1 |
| P/E | -1.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | -32.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -40.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -63.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -135.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8192025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 7182025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 7012025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5202024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8242023 | S-1/A 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7142023 | S-1 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102023 | DRS/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |