Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $13.48 | Market Cap: $665.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
Market Price (4/11/2026): $13.48Market Cap: $665.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%, FCF Yield is 29% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -32% Key risksNCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%, FCF Yield is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -32% |
| Key risksNCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Share Repurchase Program.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) reported adjusted net investment income per share of $0.44 for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.43 by 2.33%. This positive earnings surprise was accompanied by the Board's authorization of a $50 million share repurchase program, signaling management's confidence in the company's valuation and potentially providing support for the stock price.
2. Resilient Portfolio Health and Attractive Distribution Yield.
The company's investment portfolio demonstrated stability with a low non-accrual rate of only 0.5% of total investments at fair value as of December 31, 2025. Despite a declared reduction in its quarterly distribution from $0.45 to $0.40 per share, NCDL maintained an attractive annualized distribution yield of 10.1% based on its net asset value per share as of the end of 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.2% change in NCDL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.93 | 13.47 | 4.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 86 | 77 | -10.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 92.0% | 85.6% | -6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.1 | 10.1 | 25.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | 4.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 40.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.3% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.1% change in NCDL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.94 | 13.47 | 4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 98 | 77 | -22.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 98.9% | 85.6% | -13.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.7 | 10.1 | 51.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 41.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.2% change in NCDL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.00 | 13.47 | -10.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 111 | 77 | -31.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 104.4% | 85.6% | -18.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 10.1 | 45.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 49 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -10.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 50.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.9% | 40.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCDL Return | - | - | - | 6% | -10% | 4% | -1% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -10% | 32% | 21% | -7% | -12% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCDL Win Rate | - | - | - | 50% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 80% | 45% | 72% | 72% | 48% | 15% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCDL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -10% | -13% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -19% | -2% | -2% | -17% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NCDL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
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Here are a few brief analogies for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL):
A 'private equity firm for debt'
A specialized corporate bank for mid-sized private companies
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```html- Direct Lending: Provides customized debt financing solutions directly to private middle-market companies.
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) operates as a direct lending firm. As such, its "customers" are the companies to which it provides loans and credit facilities. These are typically private companies seeking financing for various purposes.
Due to the private nature of these borrower relationships and the fact that direct lenders often have a diversified portfolio of loans rather than a few major clients, specific names of borrower companies are generally not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it is not possible to list specific major customer companies or their public symbols.
However, we can describe the categories of companies that Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending typically serves as its borrowers:
- Middle-Market Companies: These are privately held businesses, often backed by private equity sponsors, that require flexible financing solutions for growth, acquisitions, recapitalizations, or other strategic initiatives. They typically fall outside the scope of traditional large-bank lending or public debt markets.
- Companies Seeking Customized Financing: Borrowers who need tailored debt structures, faster execution, or more flexible terms than what is available from traditional commercial banks. This can include companies undergoing specific events such as leveraged buyouts or corporate carve-outs.
- Companies Across Diverse Industries: Direct lenders typically maintain a diversified portfolio across various sectors to mitigate risk. While specific industry focus may vary, NCDL likely lends to companies in a broad range of industries, avoiding over-concentration in any single sector.
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- Churchill Asset Management LLC
- U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB)
- Deloitte & Touche LLP
- Ropes & Gray LLP
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Kenneth Kencel Chief Executive Officer, President, Chairman of the Board
Kenneth Kencel has served as Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman of the Board of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. since December 2019, and as President and Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Asset Management since 2015. With over 35 years of experience, he has led various private credit investment businesses. Previously, Mr. Kencel was a Managing Director of The Carlyle Group, where he also served as President and a Director of Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., a publicly traded business development company. He founded and was President and CEO of Churchill Financial Group. His career also includes roles as Head of Leveraged Finance for Royal Bank of Canada and Head of Indosuez Capital, a middle market merchant banking and asset management business. Mr. Kencel was a founder of the high-yield finance business at Chase Securities (now JPMorgan Chase) and started his career in the Mergers & Acquisitions Group at Drexel Burnham Lambert. Churchill Asset Management, which Mr. Kencel founded in 2006 as a private equity-backed credit shop, was sold to Carlyle five years later. In 2015, he led the group's spinout in partnership with TIAA's Nuveen.
Shai Vichness Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Shai Vichness serves as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and as a Senior Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of Churchill Asset Management. Prior to this, he was Managing Director and Head of Senior Leveraged Lending for Nuveen, where he was responsible for initiating Nuveen's investment program in middle market senior loans and was directly involved in the launch of Churchill as an affiliate in 2015.
Jason Strife Senior Managing Director, Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital
Jason Strife is Senior Managing Director and Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital at Churchill Asset Management and an NCDL Investment Committee Member. He is responsible for sourcing, executing, portfolio construction, and monitoring Churchill's middle market private equity and junior capital investment efforts, including fund commitments, equity co-investments, and junior debt investments. Before joining Nuveen, Mr. Strife was a Principal at Bison Capital, a private equity firm focused on structured junior capital investments in lower middle market companies.
Mat Linett Senior Managing Director, Head of Senior Lending
Mat Linett serves as Senior Managing Director, Head of Senior Lending, and an NCDL Investment Committee Member. He oversees origination, capital markets, underwriting, and portfolio management for Churchill's Senior Loan Investment Team. His experience includes investing at all levels of the capital structure, such as senior secured loans, public and private mezzanine debt, and private equity co-investments, along with significant distressed debt experience.
John McCally Vice President and Secretary, General Counsel
John McCally is the Vice President and Secretary of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and serves as General Counsel for Churchill Asset Management, which he established with the Churchill Financial Founders in 2015. He has been part of the TIAA and Nuveen legal departments since 2010, including serving as the head of legal for Nuveen Leveraged Finance. Mr. McCally also provides legal support for various investment and asset management teams within the Nuveen and TIAA businesses.
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Key Risks for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
- Declining Net Asset Value (NAV) and Challenges in Portfolio Growth: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) has experienced a continuous decline in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, which has been a persistent downtrend for over a year. This is significantly driven by management's struggle to allocate capital efficiently towards new investments, resulting in negative net funded investment activity where sales and repayments outweigh new funding. This limits portfolio growth, consequently eroding the NAV and reflecting underlying challenges in the high-interest rate environment where fewer borrowers seek debt financing.
- Credit Risk and Borrower Defaults: As a business development company (BDC) specializing in providing senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies, NCDL is inherently exposed to credit risk. These middle-market companies are often highly leveraged, and their ability to repay loans is crucial to NCDL's performance. Although NCDL has maintained a relatively low non-accrual rate (0.5% of fair portfolio value as of December 31, 2025), a prolonged high-interest rate environment or economic downturn could strain borrowers, leading to an increase in defaults and negatively impacting NCDL's income and portfolio quality.
- High Debt Levels and Dividend Sustainability Concerns: NCDL's financial strength has been rated as poor due to increasing debt levels, with its total debt rising to $1.11 billion and the debt-to-equity ratio increasing to 1.27x. This elevated leverage increases the company's financial risk. Furthermore, NCDL recently cut its dividend by 20% to reflect lower earnings potential, and there are ongoing concerns about the sustainability of future distributions if net investment income does not sufficiently cover dividend payouts, which directly impacts investor appeal for this income-oriented investment vehicle.
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The emergence of advanced fintech platforms leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to more efficiently originate, underwrite, and service private credit to middle-market companies. These technology-driven solutions could offer lower operational costs, faster execution, and potentially more precise risk assessment, thereby challenging the traditional, relationship-based direct lending model of companies like NCDL by attracting both borrowers seeking efficiency and capital providers seeking superior returns or lower fees.
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) primarily focuses on providing direct lending solutions to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies. The addressable market for these services is substantial within the private credit landscape: * **U.S. Direct Lending Market:** The U.S. direct lending market stands at approximately $1 trillion. This market has shown significant growth, increasing from around $400 billion in 2019. * **U.S. Private Credit Market:** The broader U.S. private credit market, which encompasses direct lending, is estimated to be roughly $1.3 trillion and is expected to expand further in 2026. Some estimates place the U.S. private credit market between $1.5 trillion and $2.1 trillion, representing approximately three-quarters of the global market. Moody's predicts the U.S. private credit market will double to more than $3 trillion in assets under management by 2028. * **Global Private Credit Market:** The global private credit market reached approximately US$3.5 trillion in assets under management by the end of 2024. Other research indicates it is over $3 trillion, with projections to exceed $5 trillion by 2029.AI Analysis | Feedback
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Increased M&A and Leveraged Buyout Activity: The company anticipates a continuous improvement and increasing deal flow stemming from a resurgence of merger and acquisition (M&A) and leveraged buyout (LBO) activity observed in the latter half of 2025. This momentum is expected to create more financing opportunities in the middle market through 2026 and beyond.
- Middle-Market Companies' Strategic Investments: Corporate management teams are increasingly prioritizing long-term strategic initiatives and investing in their businesses for sustained growth. This focus is expected to fuel demand for NCDL's direct lending solutions to fund these expansion and development efforts.
- Differentiated Deal Sourcing and Underwriting: NCDL benefits significantly from leveraging Churchill Asset Management's extensive credit platform and established relationships with private equity sponsors. This competitive advantage provides access to institutional-quality deal flow and rigorous underwriting, enabling the company to consistently identify and invest in attractive opportunities within the core middle market and enhance portfolio diversification.
- Strategic Capital Deployment and Favorable Market Conditions: NCDL intends to maintain a leveraged position at the upper end of its target range (1x to 1.25x debt-to-equity), optimizing its investment capacity. Additionally, anticipated future reductions in interest rates, while potentially impacting portfolio yields, are expected to stimulate increasing deal flow and financing opportunities, contributing to growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, the board authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program.
- Through May 2, 2025, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) repurchased 5.0 million shares for approximately $84.5 million under a $99.3 million share repurchase plan.
Share Issuance
- NCDL completed its initial public offering (IPO) on January 24, 2024, offering 5,500,000 shares of common stock at $18.05 per share.
- In the first quarter of 2025, the company issued $300 million of unsecured notes to optimize its balance sheet and capital structure.
- A $200 million at-the-market (ATM) equity program was established in March 2025, although no shares had been sold through this program as of December 31, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- As of December 31, 2025, NCDL's investment portfolio had a fair value of $2.0 billion, diversified across 227 portfolio companies.
- The portfolio is primarily focused on senior secured loans, with approximately 89.5% invested in first-lien debt as of December 31, 2025.
- For the year ended December 31, 2025, the company funded $350.7 million of portfolio investments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 485 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 334 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 19 |
| CFO LTM | 334 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 19 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -15.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 35.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -27.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -8.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 188.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 188.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.3 |
| Total Yield | 24.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 13.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 25.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.47 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/25/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.05 | $13.64 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 3.2% | -1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Upside Capture | 93.68 | 41.89 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.2% | 40.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.58 | -0.16 |
| Up Beta | 0.06 | 0.66 | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.52 | -0.08 |
| Down Beta | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.72 | -0.07 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 111% | 94% | 61% | 31% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 62 | 123 | 277 |
| Down Capture | 29% | 63% | 64% | 63% | 75% | 53% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 33 | 62 | 127 | 258 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | 3.8% | 21.4% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.74 | 46.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 44.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -5.7% | 43.7% | -0.01 | 22.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -0.1% | 19.5% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | -4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 14.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -0.0% | 19.5% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.1% | -1.3% | -5.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.6% | -2.1% | 1.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.2% | -0.7% | 3.7% |
| 2/27/2025 | -1.9% | -3.0% | -1.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -0.6% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| # Negative | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -1.3% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 1.7% | 1.9% | 6.7% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -3.0% | -5.9% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | 0.4 | -11.1% | -5.0% | Lower New | Actual: 0.45 for Q4 2025 | ||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Dividends | 0.45 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.45 for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda, Kenneth M | held in Joint Trust | Buy | 11212025 | 14.10 | 2,000 | 28,200 | 380,700 | Form | |
| 2 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 11172025 | 14.20 | 5,000 | 71,000 | 284,000 | Form |
| 3 | Kencel, Kenneth J | CEO & President | Trust | Buy | 11072025 | 14.22 | 20,000 | 284,400 | 684,224 | Form |
| 4 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 9162025 | 14.85 | 5,000 | 74,250 | 222,750 | Form |
| 5 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 6162025 | 16.30 | 5,000 | 81,500 | 163,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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