Tearsheet

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)


Market Price (4/11/2026): $13.48 | Market Cap: $665.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)


Market Price (4/11/2026): $13.48
Market Cap: $665.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%, FCF Yield is 29%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -32%

Key risks
NCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%, FCF Yield is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 253%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -32%
8 Key risks
NCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat and Share Repurchase Program.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) reported adjusted net investment income per share of $0.44 for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.43 by 2.33%. This positive earnings surprise was accompanied by the Board's authorization of a $50 million share repurchase program, signaling management's confidence in the company's valuation and potentially providing support for the stock price.

2. Resilient Portfolio Health and Attractive Distribution Yield.

The company's investment portfolio demonstrated stability with a low non-accrual rate of only 0.5% of total investments at fair value as of December 31, 2025. Despite a declared reduction in its quarterly distribution from $0.45 to $0.40 per share, NCDL maintained an attractive annualized distribution yield of 10.1% based on its net asset value per share as of the end of 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.2% change in NCDL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254102026Change
Stock Price ($)12.9313.474.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8677-10.9%
Net Income Margin (%)92.0%85.6%-6.9%
P/E Multiple8.110.125.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)49490.1%
Cumulative Contribution4.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NCDL4.2% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%40.6%
Sector (XLF)-7.3%46.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.1% change in NCDL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)93020254102026Change
Stock Price ($)12.9413.474.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9877-22.0%
Net Income Margin (%)98.9%85.6%-13.4%
P/E Multiple6.710.151.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)50491.6%
Cumulative Contribution4.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NCDL4.1% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%37.5%
Sector (XLF)-5.4%41.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.2% change in NCDL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120254102026Change
Stock Price ($)15.0013.47-10.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11177-31.2%
Net Income Margin (%)104.4%85.6%-18.0%
P/E Multiple7.010.145.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)54499.8%
Cumulative Contribution-10.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NCDL-10.2% 
Market (SPY)16.3%48.4%
Sector (XLF)3.0%50.4%

Fundamental Drivers

null
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Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NCDL  
Market (SPY)63.3%37.6%
Sector (XLF)64.9%40.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NCDL Return---6%-10%4%-1%
Peers Return28%-10%32%21%-7%-12%49%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-0%82%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCDL Win Rate---50%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate80%45%72%72%48%15% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCDL Max Drawdown----10%-13%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-1%-19%-2%-2%-17%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NCDL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4,470 days1,480 days

Compare to ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC

In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few brief analogies for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL):

  • A 'private equity firm for debt'

  • A specialized corporate bank for mid-sized private companies

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Direct Lending: Provides customized debt financing solutions directly to private middle-market companies.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) operates as a direct lending firm. As such, its "customers" are the companies to which it provides loans and credit facilities. These are typically private companies seeking financing for various purposes.

Due to the private nature of these borrower relationships and the fact that direct lenders often have a diversified portfolio of loans rather than a few major clients, specific names of borrower companies are generally not publicly disclosed. Therefore, it is not possible to list specific major customer companies or their public symbols.

However, we can describe the categories of companies that Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending typically serves as its borrowers:

  1. Middle-Market Companies: These are privately held businesses, often backed by private equity sponsors, that require flexible financing solutions for growth, acquisitions, recapitalizations, or other strategic initiatives. They typically fall outside the scope of traditional large-bank lending or public debt markets.
  2. Companies Seeking Customized Financing: Borrowers who need tailored debt structures, faster execution, or more flexible terms than what is available from traditional commercial banks. This can include companies undergoing specific events such as leveraged buyouts or corporate carve-outs.
  3. Companies Across Diverse Industries: Direct lenders typically maintain a diversified portfolio across various sectors to mitigate risk. While specific industry focus may vary, NCDL likely lends to companies in a broad range of industries, avoiding over-concentration in any single sector.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Churchill Asset Management LLC
  • U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB)
  • Deloitte & Touche LLP
  • Ropes & Gray LLP

AI Analysis | Feedback

Kenneth Kencel Chief Executive Officer, President, Chairman of the Board

Kenneth Kencel has served as Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman of the Board of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. since December 2019, and as President and Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Asset Management since 2015. With over 35 years of experience, he has led various private credit investment businesses. Previously, Mr. Kencel was a Managing Director of The Carlyle Group, where he also served as President and a Director of Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., a publicly traded business development company. He founded and was President and CEO of Churchill Financial Group. His career also includes roles as Head of Leveraged Finance for Royal Bank of Canada and Head of Indosuez Capital, a middle market merchant banking and asset management business. Mr. Kencel was a founder of the high-yield finance business at Chase Securities (now JPMorgan Chase) and started his career in the Mergers & Acquisitions Group at Drexel Burnham Lambert. Churchill Asset Management, which Mr. Kencel founded in 2006 as a private equity-backed credit shop, was sold to Carlyle five years later. In 2015, he led the group's spinout in partnership with TIAA's Nuveen.

Shai Vichness Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Shai Vichness serves as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and as a Senior Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of Churchill Asset Management. Prior to this, he was Managing Director and Head of Senior Leveraged Lending for Nuveen, where he was responsible for initiating Nuveen's investment program in middle market senior loans and was directly involved in the launch of Churchill as an affiliate in 2015.

Jason Strife Senior Managing Director, Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital

Jason Strife is Senior Managing Director and Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital at Churchill Asset Management and an NCDL Investment Committee Member. He is responsible for sourcing, executing, portfolio construction, and monitoring Churchill's middle market private equity and junior capital investment efforts, including fund commitments, equity co-investments, and junior debt investments. Before joining Nuveen, Mr. Strife was a Principal at Bison Capital, a private equity firm focused on structured junior capital investments in lower middle market companies.

Mat Linett Senior Managing Director, Head of Senior Lending

Mat Linett serves as Senior Managing Director, Head of Senior Lending, and an NCDL Investment Committee Member. He oversees origination, capital markets, underwriting, and portfolio management for Churchill's Senior Loan Investment Team. His experience includes investing at all levels of the capital structure, such as senior secured loans, public and private mezzanine debt, and private equity co-investments, along with significant distressed debt experience.

John McCally Vice President and Secretary, General Counsel

John McCally is the Vice President and Secretary of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and serves as General Counsel for Churchill Asset Management, which he established with the Churchill Financial Founders in 2015. He has been part of the TIAA and Nuveen legal departments since 2010, including serving as the head of legal for Nuveen Leveraged Finance. Mr. McCally also provides legal support for various investment and asset management teams within the Nuveen and TIAA businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)

  1. Declining Net Asset Value (NAV) and Challenges in Portfolio Growth: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) has experienced a continuous decline in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share, which has been a persistent downtrend for over a year. This is significantly driven by management's struggle to allocate capital efficiently towards new investments, resulting in negative net funded investment activity where sales and repayments outweigh new funding. This limits portfolio growth, consequently eroding the NAV and reflecting underlying challenges in the high-interest rate environment where fewer borrowers seek debt financing.
  2. Credit Risk and Borrower Defaults: As a business development company (BDC) specializing in providing senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies, NCDL is inherently exposed to credit risk. These middle-market companies are often highly leveraged, and their ability to repay loans is crucial to NCDL's performance. Although NCDL has maintained a relatively low non-accrual rate (0.5% of fair portfolio value as of December 31, 2025), a prolonged high-interest rate environment or economic downturn could strain borrowers, leading to an increase in defaults and negatively impacting NCDL's income and portfolio quality.
  3. High Debt Levels and Dividend Sustainability Concerns: NCDL's financial strength has been rated as poor due to increasing debt levels, with its total debt rising to $1.11 billion and the debt-to-equity ratio increasing to 1.27x. This elevated leverage increases the company's financial risk. Furthermore, NCDL recently cut its dividend by 20% to reflect lower earnings potential, and there are ongoing concerns about the sustainability of future distributions if net investment income does not sufficiently cover dividend payouts, which directly impacts investor appeal for this income-oriented investment vehicle.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence of advanced fintech platforms leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to more efficiently originate, underwrite, and service private credit to middle-market companies. These technology-driven solutions could offer lower operational costs, faster execution, and potentially more precise risk assessment, thereby challenging the traditional, relationship-based direct lending model of companies like NCDL by attracting both borrowers seeking efficiency and capital providers seeking superior returns or lower fees.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) primarily focuses on providing direct lending solutions to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies. The addressable market for these services is substantial within the private credit landscape: * **U.S. Direct Lending Market:** The U.S. direct lending market stands at approximately $1 trillion. This market has shown significant growth, increasing from around $400 billion in 2019. * **U.S. Private Credit Market:** The broader U.S. private credit market, which encompasses direct lending, is estimated to be roughly $1.3 trillion and is expected to expand further in 2026. Some estimates place the U.S. private credit market between $1.5 trillion and $2.1 trillion, representing approximately three-quarters of the global market. Moody's predicts the U.S. private credit market will double to more than $3 trillion in assets under management by 2028. * **Global Private Credit Market:** The global private credit market reached approximately US$3.5 trillion in assets under management by the end of 2024. Other research indicates it is over $3 trillion, with projections to exceed $5 trillion by 2029.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:

  • Increased M&A and Leveraged Buyout Activity: The company anticipates a continuous improvement and increasing deal flow stemming from a resurgence of merger and acquisition (M&A) and leveraged buyout (LBO) activity observed in the latter half of 2025. This momentum is expected to create more financing opportunities in the middle market through 2026 and beyond.
  • Middle-Market Companies' Strategic Investments: Corporate management teams are increasingly prioritizing long-term strategic initiatives and investing in their businesses for sustained growth. This focus is expected to fuel demand for NCDL's direct lending solutions to fund these expansion and development efforts.
  • Differentiated Deal Sourcing and Underwriting: NCDL benefits significantly from leveraging Churchill Asset Management's extensive credit platform and established relationships with private equity sponsors. This competitive advantage provides access to institutional-quality deal flow and rigorous underwriting, enabling the company to consistently identify and invest in attractive opportunities within the core middle market and enhance portfolio diversification.
  • Strategic Capital Deployment and Favorable Market Conditions: NCDL intends to maintain a leveraged position at the upper end of its target range (1x to 1.25x debt-to-equity), optimizing its investment capacity. Additionally, anticipated future reductions in interest rates, while potentially impacting portfolio yields, are expected to stimulate increasing deal flow and financing opportunities, contributing to growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In February 2026, the board authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program.
  • Through May 2, 2025, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) repurchased 5.0 million shares for approximately $84.5 million under a $99.3 million share repurchase plan.

Share Issuance

  • NCDL completed its initial public offering (IPO) on January 24, 2024, offering 5,500,000 shares of common stock at $18.05 per share.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, the company issued $300 million of unsecured notes to optimize its balance sheet and capital structure.
  • A $200 million at-the-market (ATM) equity program was established in March 2025, although no shares had been sold through this program as of December 31, 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • As of December 31, 2025, NCDL's investment portfolio had a fair value of $2.0 billion, diversified across 227 portfolio companies.
  • The portfolio is primarily focused on senior secured loans, with approximately 89.5% invested in first-lien debt as of December 31, 2025.
  • For the year ended December 31, 2025, the company funded $350.7 million of portfolio investments.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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MKTX_3202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03202026MKTXMarketAxessDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
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-2.7%-2.7%-8.5%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCDLARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameNuveen C.Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Mkt Price13.4718.0910.8710.1323.1312.7113.09
Mkt Cap0.712.95.52.85.43.44.4
Rev LTM771,452710102608362485
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM194-1,7171,742592-459473334
FCF 3Y Avg-158-1,1111,0121,292-84219519
CFO LTM194-1,7171,742592-459473334
CFO 3Y Avg-158-1,1111,0121,292-84219519

Growth & Margins

NCDLARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameNuveen C.Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Rev Chg LTM-31.2%-13.4%6.6%-84.4%-16.9%19.1%-15.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-35.2%14.2%180.6%20.4%56.2%35.2%
Rev Chg Q-32.3%-14.4%-19.4%-141.3%-23.4%-38.4%-27.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-10.9%-3.7%-4.4%-71.8%-6.0%-11.2%-8.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM253.4%-118.3%245.4%580.4%-75.5%130.6%188.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-147.6%-71.0%135.0%350.2%-115.6%53.8%-8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM253.4%-118.3%245.4%580.4%-75.5%130.6%188.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-147.6%-71.0%135.0%350.2%-115.6%53.8%-8.6%

Valuation

NCDLARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameNuveen C.Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
Mkt Cap0.712.95.52.85.43.44.4
P/S8.78.97.827.88.89.38.8
P/EBIT-------
P/E10.19.98.8257.99.510.110.0
P/CFO3.4-7.53.24.8-11.77.13.3
Total Yield25.2%19.8%25.0%28.0%23.2%20.1%24.1%
Dividend Yield15.4%9.8%13.6%27.6%12.7%10.3%13.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--7.4%16.7%23.4%-11.4%6.8%6.8%
D/E1.71.21.72.71.51.51.6
Net D/E1.61.21.62.61.51.41.5

Returns

NCDLARCCOBDCFSKBXSLGBDCMedian
NameNuveen C.Ares Cap.Blue Owl.FS KKR C.Blacksto.Golub Ca. 
1M Rtn4.4%-2.2%0.7%-3.1%-0.4%5.2%0.2%
3M Rtn2.7%-10.0%-10.4%-27.1%-9.0%-4.6%-9.5%
6M Rtn7.9%0.6%-4.5%-21.5%-1.7%0.8%-0.5%
12M Rtn4.0%0.1%-6.3%-35.8%-5.0%3.8%-2.4%
3Y Rtn-0.4%31.7%22.1%-13.0%28.5%35.5%25.3%
1M Excs Rtn3.8%-2.8%0.1%-3.7%-1.0%4.6%-0.4%
3M Excs Rtn4.3%-9.1%-9.3%-25.9%-7.8%-3.9%-8.4%
6M Excs Rtn4.2%-4.2%-7.7%-24.0%-6.1%-2.2%-5.1%
12M Excs Rtn-33.0%-31.7%-38.6%-70.0%-40.2%-28.1%-35.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-66.6%-33.9%-42.5%-79.0%-34.6%-32.7%-38.5%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment218155544310
Total218155544310


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$13.47 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.7 
First Trading Date01/25/2024 
Distance from 52W High-13.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$13.05$13.64
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA3.2%-1.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility24.1%20.7%
Downside Capture0.250.27
Upside Capture93.6841.89
Correlation (SPY)38.2%40.2%
NCDL Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.770.780.770.660.58-0.16
Up Beta0.060.660.990.910.52-0.08
Down Beta0.830.770.720.630.72-0.07
Up Capture182%111%94%61%31%6%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days11203062123277
Down Capture29%63%64%63%75%53%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days11223362127258

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NCDL
NCDL3.8%21.4%0.09-
Sector ETF (XLF)16.9%17.3%0.7446.6%
Equity (SPY)31.2%17.3%1.4744.5%
Gold (GLD)60.1%27.8%1.69-10.5%
Commodities (DBC)29.8%16.6%1.5811.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)21.3%15.2%1.0740.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-5.7%43.7%-0.0122.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NCDL
NCDL-0.1%19.5%-0.13-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.7%18.7%0.4040.8%
Equity (SPY)11.1%17.0%0.5037.6%
Gold (GLD)22.1%17.8%1.02-4.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.8%18.8%0.5212.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.7%18.8%0.1038.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.0%56.5%0.2914.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NCDL
NCDL-0.0%19.5%-0.13-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.7%22.2%0.5340.8%
Equity (SPY)13.8%17.9%0.6637.6%
Gold (GLD)14.2%15.9%0.74-4.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4112.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2238.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.9%1.0714.0%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 315202621.4%
Average Daily Volume0.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity49.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/26/2026-1.1%-1.3%-5.9%
11/4/2025-1.6%-2.1%1.6%
8/6/20250.8%1.9%0.4%
5/8/2025-4.2%-0.7%3.7%
2/27/2025-1.9%-3.0%-1.7%
11/7/2024-0.6%-0.1%0.8%
5/9/20240.5%0.5%3.2%
2/27/20241.7%0.3%6.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive336
# Negative552
Median Positive0.8%0.5%2.4%
Median Negative-1.6%-1.3%-3.8%
Max Positive1.7%1.9%6.7%
Max Negative-4.2%-3.0%-5.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202301/26/2024424B1

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Dividends 0.4 -11.1%-5.0%Lower NewActual: 0.45 for Q4 2025
2026 Share Repurchases 50.00 Mil    

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Dividends 0.45 0 Same NewActual: 0.45 for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Miranda, Kenneth M held in Joint TrustBuy1121202514.102,00028,200380,700Form
2Vichness, ShaulChief Financial Off./TreasurerTrustBuy1117202514.205,00071,000284,000Form
3Kencel, Kenneth JCEO & PresidentTrustBuy1107202514.2220,000284,400684,224Form
4Vichness, ShaulChief Financial Off./TreasurerTrustBuy916202514.855,00074,250222,750Form
5Vichness, ShaulChief Financial Off./TreasurerTrustBuy616202516.305,00081,500163,000Form