Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $13.05 | Market Cap: $644.7 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $13.05Market Cap: $644.7 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 164% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | Key risksNCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 164% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Key risksNCDL key risks include [1] significant credit exposure from its heavy portfolio concentration in volatile middle-market companies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Declining Net Investment Income (NII) and Undercovered Dividend. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) experienced its sixth consecutive quarter of declining Net Investment Income (NII) per share in Q3 2025, reaching $0.43. This NII figure resulted in the company's base dividend being 95% covered, which is below the sector average of 100%, suggesting that NCDL may need to draw from its balance sheet to sustain its current dividend distributions. Analysts also anticipate a continued decrease in NII for NCDL in 2025, 2026, and 2027.
2. Weakening Broadly Syndicated Loan Market Conditions. The broader leveraged credit market, which can influence direct lending, saw a significant weakening in Q4 2025. Secondary loan prices softened, and lenders imposed stricter terms. Overall syndicated loan activity decreased substantially, with new-issue volume hitting a two-year low, indicating a less favorable environment for lending activities.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.4% change in NCDL stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.97 | 13.07 | -6.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 98 | 86 | -12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 98.9% | 92.0% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 8.2 | 13.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -6.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.2% | 34.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.7% change in NCDL stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.33 | 13.07 | -14.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 99 | 86 | -13.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 102.4% | 92.0% | -10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.9 | 8.2 | 3.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 49 | 5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -14.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.6% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.1% change in NCDL stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.21 | 13.07 | -14.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 114 | 86 | -24.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 101.3% | 92.0% | -9.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 8.2 | 13.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 49 | 10.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -14.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.1% | 49.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCDL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.1% | 40.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCDL Return | - | - | - | 6% | -10% | 0% | -4% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -10% | 32% | 21% | -7% | -6% | 61% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCDL Win Rate | - | - | - | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 80% | 45% | 72% | 72% | 48% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCDL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -10% | -13% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -19% | -2% | -2% | -17% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NCDL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ARCC, OBDC, FSK, BXSL, GBDC
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL):- It's like **JPMorgan Chase** or **Bank of America**, but specifically lending to private businesses.
- It's like a **Vanguard bond fund**, but it invests in loans to private companies instead of public bonds.
- It's like **Blackstone** or **KKR**, but focused on providing debt (loans) to private companies instead of equity.
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- Senior Secured Direct Loans: NCDL provides debt financing directly to U.S. middle-market companies, typically secured by the borrower's assets.
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) operates as a Business Development Company (BDC), which means it primarily provides financing to other companies, rather than individuals.
Specifically, NCDL invests primarily in senior secured loans, junior secured loans, and to a lesser extent, unsecured loans and equity of private middle-market companies. These companies are its "customers" (borrowers).
Due to the private and confidential nature of direct lending, NCDL does not publicly disclose the names of its specific borrower companies. In the direct lending market, loans are typically made to privately held businesses, often backed by private equity sponsors. Therefore, it is not possible to list specific customer companies or their symbols as they are generally not public entities, and their identities are typically kept confidential as part of the lending agreements.
Instead of a few "major customers," NCDL's portfolio is diversified across numerous middle-market companies operating in various industries.
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- Churchill Asset Management LLC
- State Street Corporation (STT)
- Computershare Limited (CPU.AX)
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Kenneth Kencel, Chief Executive Officer, President, Chairman of the Board
Kenneth Kencel has served as Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman of the Board of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) since December 2019. He has also been the President and Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Asset Management (Churchill) since 2015. Kencel has over 35 years of experience in leading private credit investment businesses. He previously served as a Managing Director of The Carlyle Group and was President and a Director of TCG BDC, Inc. (Carlyle's publicly traded business development company). Prior to Carlyle, he founded and was President and CEO of Churchill Financial Group. He also served as Head of Leveraged Finance for Royal Bank of Canada and as Head of Indosuez Capital. Kencel helped found the high-yield finance business at Chase Securities (now JP Morgan Chase) and began his career at Drexel Burnham Lambert in Mergers & Acquisitions.
Shai Vichness, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Shai Vichness serves as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. He also holds the position of Senior Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of Churchill Asset Management. Previously, as Managing Director and Head of Senior Leveraged Lending for Nuveen, Vichness was responsible for initiating Nuveen's investment program in middle market senior loans and was directly involved in the launch of Churchill as an affiliate in 2015.
Jason Strife, Senior Managing Director, Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital
Jason Strife serves as Senior Managing Director and Head of Private Equity & Junior Capital at Churchill Asset Management. In this role, he is responsible for sourcing, executing, portfolio construction, and monitoring Churchill's middle market private equity and junior capital investment efforts, including fund commitments, equity co-investments, and junior debt investments. Prior to joining Nuveen, Strife was a Principal at Bison Capital, a Los Angeles-based private equity firm focused on structured junior capital investments in lower middle-market companies. He also serves as an NCDL Investment Committee Member.
Randy Schwimmer, Senior Managing Director, Head of Origination & Capital Markets
Randy Schwimmer is a Senior Managing Director and Head of Origination & Capital Markets at Churchill Asset Management. He leads the firm’s origination team, which sources and screens new investment opportunities. He also oversees Churchill's capital markets activities and co-heads its and NCDL’s Investment Committee. Prior to Churchill, he founded and was CEO of The Debt Exchange, a loan sale advisory firm, which he sold to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in 2010. He also previously worked at BT Alex. Brown in debt private placements.
John McCally, Vice President and Secretary
John McCally serves as Vice President and Secretary of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. His role involves administrative and secretarial duties for the company.
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) faces several key risks inherent to its business model and investment strategy.
- High Exposure to Middle-Market Companies and Credit Risk: A significant portion of NCDL's portfolio, approximately 79%, is allocated to senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies. These companies are generally more susceptible to financial volatility than larger corporations, which increases the credit risk for NCDL. During economic downturns, these middle-market borrowers may face difficulties with cash flow, potentially leading to increased defaults and a negative impact on NCDL's financial performance.
- Dependence on Leveraged Financing and Sensitivity to Interest Rate Changes: NCDL employs substantial leverage in its financing structure, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.5:1. This reliance on borrowed capital makes the company particularly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates. Rising interest rates can increase NCDL's borrowing costs, which could lead to tighter profit margins and affect its overall profitability. While most of NCDL's investments are in floating-rate loans, offering some protection in a rising rate environment, a sustained period of declining interest rates could also negatively impact the yields on its debt investments.
- Potential Conflicts of Interest: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending has related-party transactions, which introduce the potential for conflicts of interest. The company's success relies on the senior management of Churchill, and there may be conflicts arising from the obligations these investment professionals have to other clients. The recommendations provided to NCDL by Churchill may also differ from those given to other clients. Related-party transactions account for approximately 15% of NCDL's total revenue, posing a risk of misalignment between management and shareholder interests.
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The most significant clear emerging threat for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) is the **intensifying competition within the broader private credit and direct lending market**. Fueled by a massive influx of institutional capital seeking higher yields and diversification, an increasing number of private credit funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs) are competing for a finite pool of middle-market borrowers. This heightened competition is leading to several pressures:
- **Yield Compression:** More lenders chasing the same deals drives down interest rates and fees, directly impacting NCDL's potential interest income and overall profitability.
- **Erosion of Underwriting Standards:** To win deals in a crowded market, lenders may accept looser covenants and less protective terms, potentially increasing the risk profile across portfolios without necessarily commensurate returns.
- **Increased Difficulty in Sourcing Attractive Assets:** The supply of high-quality, suitable borrowers may not be keeping pace with the abundant supply of lending capital, forcing participants to either take on more risk or accept lower returns on investment.
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) primarily focuses on investing in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle-market companies. This falls within the broader private credit and direct lending markets.
The global private credit market reached approximately US$3 trillion in assets under management (AUM) in 2025. Direct lending, which is NCDL's main product area, constitutes roughly 50% of this global private credit AUM, translating to approximately US$1.5 trillion in 2025.
Focusing on the United States, which is NCDL's primary region of operation, the U.S. private credit market was approximately US$1.25 trillion in 2024. More broadly, the private credit market in the United States is estimated to be between US$1.5 trillion and US$2.1 trillion, representing approximately three-quarters of the global market. Specifically for direct lending, U.S.-based funds deployed roughly US$500 billion in new loans in 2025.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)
Over the next 2-3 years, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key factors:
- Increased Transaction Activity and Deployment of New Investments: NCDL anticipates benefiting from increased transaction activity, particularly as a potential rate reduction cycle in 2025 is expected to spur higher merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. This will provide more opportunities for the company to deploy new investments. In 2024, NCDL's investment team deployed over $950 million in new investments, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 40%. The company aims to redeploy capital from repayments and maintain its leverage within its target range of 1 to 1.25 times debt to equity to capitalize on attractive investment opportunities.
- Continued Growth of Private Credit Markets: The sustained expansion of the private credit markets is a significant factor supporting NCDL's platform strength and earnings power. The company's predominantly floating rate portfolio is considered advantageous in a declining interest rate environment, which can contribute to long-term growth in the private credit market.
- Strong Position and Differentiated Sourcing in the Core Middle Market: NCDL is strategically positioned as a leader in the core middle market. The company leverages its differentiated investment approach, unique sourcing model, and deep network of relationships with private equity sponsors across the broader Churchill platform. This enables NCDL to access a wide array of attractive investment opportunities and provide a full suite of scaled solutions across the capital structure, solidifying its role as a preferred capital partner.
- Optimization of Capital Structure and Balance Sheet: NCDL has taken steps to optimize its capital structure and balance sheet, including the issuance of $300 million in unsecured notes in January 2025. This strategic financial management provides additional capital and flexibility to support continued investment growth. The company also focuses on maintaining optimal leverage to maximize its investment capacity.
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Share Repurchases
- Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) completed a nearly $100 million share repurchase program in July 2025.
- Approximately 5.9 million shares were repurchased at a meaningful discount to Net Asset Value (NAV) during this program.
- A 10b5-1 Plan for share repurchases became effective on March 29, 2024, commenced on April 1, 2024, and was amended on March 28, 2025.
Share Issuance
- NCDL conducted private offerings of its shares from March 2020 to April 2023.
- The company completed its initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange in January 2024.
- As of February 27, 2024, the registrant had 54,815,740 shares of common stock outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- As of September 30, 2025, NCDL's investment portfolio was valued at $1.97 billion across 213 portfolio companies.
- The portfolio primarily focuses on investing in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies.
- As of September 30, 2025, the investment portfolio's fair value composition was approximately 84.6% first lien loans, 12.1% second lien loans, and 3.3% equity investments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 527 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27 |
| CFO LTM | 32 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -27 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -10.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 78.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 78.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/CFO | -1.2 |
| Total Yield | 23.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 12.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.07 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/25/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.71 | $14.31 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.7% | -8.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| Downside Capture | 56.38 | 56.30 |
| Upside Capture | 14.79 | 31.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.4% | 48.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.02 |
| Up Beta | 1.76 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.91 | 0.51 | 0.04 |
| Down Beta | 0.66 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 0.51 | 0.66 | -0.12 |
| Up Capture | 61% | -36% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 28 | 56 | 125 | 258 |
| Down Capture | 54% | 14% | 54% | 69% | 63% | 45% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 31 | 67 | 122 | 236 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -14.1% | 20.9% | -0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.1% | 19.1% | 0.13 | 49.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 19.2% | 0.63 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 77.2% | 24.5% | 2.30 | -4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 16.5% | 0.40 | 21.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 16.5% | -0.00 | 48.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.4% | 40.3% | -0.56 | 18.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -1.3% | 18.9% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.9% | 18.7% | 0.66 | 40.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.0% | 0.68 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.5% | 16.8% | 1.04 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.0% | 18.9% | 0.51 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 40.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 20.9% | 57.5% | 0.56 | 11.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL | -0.7% | 18.9% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.1% | 22.2% | 0.58 | 40.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.6% | 15.5% | 0.84 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 12.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.8% | 0.24 | 40.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 69.9% | 66.5% | 1.09 | 11.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.6% | -2.1% | 1.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.2% | -0.7% | 3.7% |
| 2/27/2025 | -1.9% | -3.0% | -1.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -0.6% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| Max Positive | 1.7% | 1.9% | 6.7% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -3.0% | -1.7% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda, Kenneth M | held in Joint Trust | Buy | 11212025 | 14.10 | 2,000 | 28,200 | 380,700 | Form | |
| 2 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 11172025 | 14.20 | 5,000 | 71,000 | 284,000 | Form |
| 3 | Kencel, Kenneth J | CEO & President | Trust | Buy | 11072025 | 14.22 | 20,000 | 284,400 | 684,224 | Form |
| 4 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 9162025 | 14.85 | 5,000 | 74,250 | 222,750 | Form |
| 5 | Vichness, Shaul | Chief Financial Off./Treasurer | Trust | Buy | 6162025 | 16.30 | 5,000 | 81,500 | 163,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.