Tearsheet

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.86 | Market Cap: $734.1 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.86
Market Cap: $734.1 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 23%, FCF Yield is 26%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 155%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 23%, FCF Yield is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 206%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 155%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NCDL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -3.9% stock movement for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending reported a slight decrease in Net Investment Income (NII) per share to $0.43 in the third quarter of 2025, down from $0.46 in the previous quarter. Additionally, the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share declined from $17.92 to $17.85 during this period.

2. The company's reported Net Investment Income of $0.43 per share for Q3 2025 was slightly below its declared regular distribution of $0.45 per share, raising potential concerns among investors about dividend coverage.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NCDL Return------4%-4%
Peers Return18%14%-11%8%1%1%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NCDL Win Rate----55%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%40%28%45%38%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NCDL Max Drawdown------13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-10%-25%-9%-9%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

NCDL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)

Better Bets than Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending (NCDL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NCDL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NCDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGFGNXMedian
NameNuveen C.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmFG Nexus  
Mkt Price14.87163.1616.02116.902.603.1715.45
Mkt Cap0.71.10.90.30.1-0.7
Rev LTM86874100152161293
Op Inc LTM-179-44-8-44
FCF LTM17870104-35-9-433
FCF 3Y Avg-19612513816-10-65
CFO LTM17877104-32-9-437
CFO 3Y Avg-19613213817-9-66

Growth & Margins

NCDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGFGNXMedian
NameNuveen C.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmFG Nexus  
Rev Chg LTM-24.6%-1.2%-6.2%2.9%-8.5%-41.5%-7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--2.4%159.6%-2.1%13.5%80.0%13.5%
Rev Chg Q-36.1%-4.8%8.2%-2.0%-37.1%73.2%-3.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-12.4%-1.2%2.1%-0.6%-16.9%47.7%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-20.5%-28.8%-49.1%-20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.9%-26.5%-74.1%-18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.1%--0.2%-6.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM206.5%8.9%104.5%-21.2%-55.2%-33.1%-6.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-225.2%15.6%142.9%11.7%-56.6%-34.5%-11.4%
FCF/Rev LTM206.5%8.0%104.5%-23.1%-55.2%-33.5%-7.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-225.2%14.7%142.9%11.0%-66.7%-35.0%-12.0%

Valuation

NCDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGFGNXMedian
NameNuveen C.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmFG Nexus  
Mkt Cap0.71.10.90.30.1-0.7
P/S7.91.58.32.53.4-3.4
P/EBIT-3.6-8.72.8-3.6
P/E8.69.49.38.14.3-8.6
P/CFO3.816.68.0-11.8-6.1-3.8
Total Yield27.4%15.6%21.5%16.6%23.4%-21.5%
Dividend Yield15.8%5.0%10.7%4.3%0.0%-5.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.7%16.7%2.9%-17.7%-5.8%
D/E1.62.01.40.01.1-1.4
Net D/E1.61.60.9-0.1-0.9-0.9

Returns

NCDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGFGNXMedian
NameNuveen C.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmFG Nexus  
1M Rtn2.0%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.4%-12.2%1.9%
3M Rtn-3.0%-14.1%-0.8%-14.0%-15.9%-72.2%-14.1%
6M Rtn-1.5%-1.2%0.7%-10.1%20.6%--1.2%
12M Rtn-3.0%-30.3%5.6%-24.3%43.6%--3.0%
3Y Rtn--7.0%43.3%-24.8%31.3%-12.1%
1M Excs Rtn2.0%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.5%-12.2%1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.4%-21.2%-6.9%-21.0%-18.7%-74.5%-19.8%
6M Excs Rtn-16.2%-15.9%-14.1%-24.8%5.9%--15.9%
12M Excs Rtn-16.7%-44.0%-8.0%-37.4%29.3%--16.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--75.8%-22.7%-96.4%-43.4%--59.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity547,770
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202532.6%
Average Daily Volume276,288
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.98
Basic Shares Quantity49,403,696
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
123120221262024424B1 12/31/2022