Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $461.06 | Market Cap: $519.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $461.06Market Cap: $519.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 149%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 557% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 103% Key risksMU key risks include [1] intense competition from emerging state-owned entities and [2] targeted geopolitical actions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 149%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 557% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 103% |
| Key risksMU key risks include [1] intense competition from emerging state-owned entities and [2] targeted geopolitical actions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Financial Performance and Optimistic Outlook.
Micron Technology demonstrated robust financial performance, consistently surpassing analyst expectations in its fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings reports. In Q1 FY2026, reported December 17, 2025, Micron achieved a record revenue of $13.6 billion, exceeding the consensus by $600 million, alongside non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.78. This momentum continued into Q2 FY2026, reported March 18, 2026, with revenue reaching a record $23.9 billion, a 196.29% year-over-year increase, and diluted EPS of $12.07, significantly beating estimates of $9.33. Furthermore, the company issued optimistic guidance for Q3 FY2026, projecting record revenue of approximately $33.5 billion and EPS around $19.15.
2. Surging Demand for AI-Driven Memory Solutions.
The accelerating demand for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and other memory solutions crucial for AI data centers has been a primary catalyst. Micron's High-Bandwidth Memory supply for 2026 is fully committed, with order books extending into 2027, indicating strong long-term demand. This AI-led demand is a key component of a broader memory "super-cycle," driving premium pricing and significant revenue growth for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 63.2% change in MU stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 285.29 | 465.66 | 63.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 42,312 | 58,119 | 37.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.1% | 41.5% | 47.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.0 | 21.7 | -19.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,125 | 1,126 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 63.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 63.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.8% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 178.7% change in MU stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 125.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 167.08 | 465.66 | 178.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,813 | 58,119 | 71.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 41.5% | 125.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.0 | 21.7 | -27.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,118 | 1,126 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 178.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 178.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 55.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 68.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 437.2% change in MU stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 178.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.68 | 465.66 | 437.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,323 | 58,119 | 85.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 41.5% | 178.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 21.7 | 5.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,115 | 1,126 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 437.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 437.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 64.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.9% | 72.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 683.3% change in MU stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 493.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.45 | 465.66 | 683.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,063 | 58,119 | 152.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.0% | 41.5% | 493.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.3 | 21.7 | -46.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,091 | 1,126 | -3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 683.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 683.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 58.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 99.8% | 66.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MU Return | 24% | -46% | 72% | -1% | 240% | 47% | 474% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -48% | 112% | 23% | 100% | 32% | 420% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MU Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 63% | 53% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MU Max Drawdown | -12% | -47% | 0% | -7% | -23% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -54% | -3% | -19% | -25% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. See MU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 742.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,680 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM
In The Past
Micron Technology's stock fell -49.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -49.8% loss requires a 99.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Micron Technology (MU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Micron Technology:
- Micron is like Intel for computer memory chips.
- Micron is like Samsung, but solely focused on making memory and storage chips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) Products: Semiconductor devices offering low-latency, high-speed data retrieval for various computing applications.
- NAND Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor storage devices primarily used for data storage.
- NOR Memory Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor memory devices providing fast read speeds.
- SSDs (Solid State Drives): Storage devices and component-level solutions for enterprise, cloud, client, and consumer markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the company description, Micron Technology primarily designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products as components and solutions to other businesses for integration into their final products. Therefore, its major customers are other companies rather than individuals.
Major customers for Micron Technology typically include large-scale manufacturers and cloud service providers across the following sectors:
- Smartphone and Mobile Device Manufacturers: Companies that integrate Micron's memory and storage into smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices.
- Example: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- PC, Server, and Enterprise System Manufacturers: Companies that utilize Micron's DRAM, NAND, and SSD solutions for client PCs, enterprise servers, and data center infrastructure.
- Example: Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
- Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers: Large technology companies that build and operate massive data centers requiring vast amounts of memory and storage for their cloud computing services.
- Example: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for its Azure cloud platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- ASML (ASML)
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- Lam Research (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO
Sanjay Mehrotra is the Chairman, President, and CEO of Micron Technology. He co-founded SanDisk Corporation in 1988 and served as its president and CEO from 2011 until its acquisition by Western Digital in 2016 for $19 billion. Mehrotra has over 40 years of experience in the semiconductor memory industry, including engineering and leadership positions at Integrated Device Technology, SEEQ Technology, and Intel Corp. He holds more than 70 patents.
Mark Murphy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Murphy is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Micron Technology, joining the company in 2022. He is responsible for leading Micron's finance organization and all financial functions, including accounting, tax, treasury, internal audit, and investor relations. Prior to Micron, Murphy served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Qorvo, a semiconductor company. He also held senior leadership positions at Delphi Automotive, MEMC Electronic Materials, and Praxair. Murphy has over 25 years of experience across finance and general management roles in global companies.
Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer
Sumit Sadana is the Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer at Micron Technology, a role he assumed in 2017. He is responsible for the company's business units, driving revenue and profitability, and corporate strategy and business development. Sadana previously served as Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer, and General Manager of Enterprise Solutions at SanDisk. His career also includes executive roles at IBM and Freescale Semiconductor. Sadana has completed approximately $40 billion in mergers and acquisitions throughout his career.
Manish Bhatia, Executive Vice President, Global Operations
Manish Bhatia is the Executive Vice President, Global Operations at Micron Technology, a position he has held since October 2017. He is responsible for the company's end-to-end operations, including manufacturing, packaging, quality, and supply chain. Before joining Micron, Bhatia held several executive roles at Western Digital Corporation and SanDisk Corporation, including Executive Vice President of Worldwide Operations at SanDisk. He joined SanDisk in 2006 through the acquisition of Matrix Semiconductor. His earlier career included positions at McKinsey & Company and Saint Gobain Corporation.
Scott J. DeBoer, Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Products Officer
Scott J. DeBoer is the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Products Officer at Micron Technology. He oversees the company's research and development, as well as product development and technology roadmap. DeBoer has held various leadership positions in technology and engineering throughout his career at Micron. His extensive experience includes driving innovation in memory and storage solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Micron Technology's business include:
- Cyclicality and Potential Oversupply in the Memory Market: The memory and storage industry is inherently cyclical, characterized by fluctuating demand, pricing, and profitability. While currently experiencing strong demand, particularly for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) driven by AI, there is a significant risk of future oversupply. Micron and its competitors are undertaking substantial capital expenditures to expand production capacity, which could lead to an imbalance where supply outstrips demand, resulting in declines in average selling prices and compressed profit margins, potentially by late 2026 or 2027.
- Intense Competition in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): Micron faces fierce competition, especially in the high-growth HBM segment critical for AI applications. Key rivals like SK Hynix and Samsung are aggressively increasing their HBM production capacity and developing next-generation technologies. Reports suggest Micron may be trailing in the HBM4 market, potentially impacting its market share, pricing power, and future profitability in this crucial, high-margin area.
- Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Dependency: A substantial portion of Micron's manufacturing and operational footprint is located in Taiwan. This concentration exposes the company to significant geopolitical risks. Any regional conflict or increased tensions could lead to catastrophic disruptions in Micron's supply chain and manufacturing capabilities, severely impacting its global operations and financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Micron Technology's main products, DRAM, NAND, and NOR memory, operate within substantial addressable markets globally.
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The global Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) market was valued at approximately USD 121.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 223.7 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.20% during the forecast period. Another estimate placed the global DRAM market size at USD 135.4 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 359.0 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2025-2033.
-
The global NAND flash memory market was valued at USD 65.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a 5.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2034. Other reports indicate the NAND flash memory market is estimated to be valued at USD 77.81 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 117.00 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.0% from 2026 to 2033. Furthermore, the NAND Flash Memory market was valued at USD 108.25 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 225.68 billion by 2034, advancing at a CAGR of 8.64%.
-
The global NOR Flash Market is projected to expand from USD 3.04 billion in 2025 to USD 4.27 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 5.74% between 2026 and 2031. Another analysis forecasts the global NOR Flash Market to reach a valuation of USD 5.27 billion in 2025 and to reach USD 10.73 billion by 2034, recording a CAGR of 8.2% from 2025 to 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Micron Technology (MU) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Explosive Demand for AI-Driven High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and Data Center Products: The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) is creating unprecedented demand for high-performance memory. Micron has reported record revenues in data center DRAM and HBM, with HBM shipments ahead of plan. The company has sold out its entire HBM output for calendar year 2025 and has secured agreements for its calendar 2026 HBM supply, including the advanced HBM4. The HBM market is projected to expand significantly, with estimates indicating growth from approximately $35 billion in 2025 to nearly $100 billion by 2028.
- Overall DRAM and NAND Market Recovery and Improved Pricing: Following a period of oversupply, the broader memory market for both DRAM and NAND products is experiencing a robust recovery. Tight supply conditions across the industry are leading to increased pricing power for memory manufacturers like Micron. The company expects these tight market conditions to persist beyond calendar 2026. This environment is contributing to significantly improved gross margins and overall revenue expansion.
- Technological Leadership and New Product Ramps: Micron's continuous investment in advanced technology nodes, such as the 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND, is a crucial driver. The 1-gamma DRAM node offers higher bit density and improved power efficiency, while the ramp of HBM4 is expected to command higher average selling prices (ASPs). These technological advancements enhance Micron's competitive edge and enable the delivery of higher-value, higher-margin products.
- Recovery in Traditional End Markets: Beyond the dominant AI segment, Micron is also observing improvements in demand across other key end markets. This includes the recovery of inventories in client (PC) and smartphone markets, as well as strengthening demand in broad distribution, industrial, and parts of the automotive sectors. This broader market stabilization and growth will contribute to overall revenue diversification and stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Micron's annual share buybacks amounted to $425 million in 2023 and $300 million in 2024.
- The company conducted $300 million in share repurchases during the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended November 27, 2025.
- Micron completed $300 million in share repurchases under the CHIPS definitive agreement.
Capital Expenditures
- Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures during fiscal 2025.
- The company anticipates fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $20 billion, an increase from fiscal 2025, primarily focused on 1γ DRAM and HBM-related investments, DRAM front-end equipment, and fab construction.
- For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, capital expenditures were $4.5 billion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MU.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 01162026 | MU | Micron Technology | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.8% | -6.8% | -11.3% |
| 02282023 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 56.2% | -6.8% |
| 08312022 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 24.8% | -13.5% |
| 10312018 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.1% | 26.1% | -23.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 225.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 362.2 |
| Rev LTM | 48,860 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,950 |
| FCF LTM | 8,508 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,973 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 362.2 |
| P/S | 10.3 |
| P/EBIT | 32.5 |
| P/E | 29.7 |
| P/CFO | 39.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 192.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 406.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 28.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 172.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 331.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | 11,667 | ||||
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 4,984 | ||||
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 4,631 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 3,792 | ||||
| All Other | 37 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 25 |
| Unallocated | 0 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | 5,710 | 13,693 | 12,280 | 9,184 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 3,637 | 5,235 | 4,209 | 2,759 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | 3,630 | 7,260 | 7,203 | 5,702 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | 2,553 | 4,553 | 3,973 | 3,765 | |
| Total | 25,111 | 15,540 | 30,758 | 27,705 | 21,435 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 432 | ||||
| Unallocated | 356 | -1,913 | -579 | -1,384 | -416 |
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 255 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 244 | ||||
| All Other | 18 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -2 |
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | -1 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | -585 | 5,844 | 4,295 | 2,010 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 382 | 1,752 | 1,006 | 301 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | -1,750 | 2,160 | 2,173 | 1,074 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | -1,887 | 513 | 173 | 36 | |
| Total | 1,304 | -5,745 | 9,702 | 6,283 | 3,003 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $465.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 524.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $403.67 | $253.07 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 15.4% | 84.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.5% | 58.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| Upside Capture | 264.18 | 305.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.3% | 50.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.64 | 2.32 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 2.09 |
| Up Beta | -0.41 | 1.48 | 1.15 | 2.71 | 1.85 | 1.89 |
| Down Beta | 4.23 | 2.98 | 2.55 | 2.95 | 2.74 | 2.34 |
| Up Capture | 243% | 227% | 479% | 874% | 822% | 2877% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 32 | 68 | 144 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 222% | 214% | 168% | 171% | 130% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 31 | 58 | 108 | 352 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 571.4% | 58.8% | 3.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 53.2% | 21.1% | 1.92 | 64.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.2% | 12.9% | 1.49 | 51.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.4% | 27.6% | 1.55 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.8% | 16.2% | 1.47 | 10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 18.7% | 13.8% | 1.00 | 11.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -6.8% | 42.9% | -0.05 | 25.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 38.5% | 50.2% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.3% | 24.7% | 0.63 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 60.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.8% | 56.5% | 0.32 | 25.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 46.6% | 48.7% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.3% | 24.3% | 0.84 | 66.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 60.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 20.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/18/2026 | -3.8% | -17.2% | |
| 12/17/2025 | 10.2% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| 9/23/2025 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 19.3% |
| 6/25/2025 | -1.0% | -4.3% | -12.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -8.0% | -11.5% | -35.1% |
| 12/18/2024 | -16.2% | -13.6% | 5.3% |
| 9/25/2024 | 14.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.1% | -3.9% | -23.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -6.7% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -17.2% | -35.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/01/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 3/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 32.75 Bil | 33.50 Bil | 34.25 Bil | 79.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 18.70 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross margin | 81.0% | 20.9% | 14.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 67.0% for Q2 2026 | ||
| Q3 2026 Operating expenses | 1.60 Bil | 2.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.56 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 18.5 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 130.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.19 for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 12/17/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 18.30 Bil | 18.70 Bil | 19.10 Bil | 49.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 12.50 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Margin | 66.0% | 67.0% | 68.0% | 32.7% | 16.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 50.5% for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Operating Expenses | 1.54 Bil | 1.56 Bil | 1.58 Bil | 4.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.49 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted Earnings Per Share | 7.99 | 8.19 | 8.39 | 130.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.56 for Q1 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arnzen, April S | EVP and Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 277.09 | 15,000 | 4,156,350 | 45,891,092 | Form |
| 2 | Gomo, Steven J | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 263.63 | 5,000 | 1,318,150 | 5,045,615 | Form | |
| 3 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 241.34 | 8,757 | 2,113,441 | 96,614,699 | Form |
| 4 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 233.39 | 3,743 | 873,567 | 92,556,142 | Form |
| 5 | Murphy, Mark J | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 225.31 | 126,000 | 28,389,111 | 49,499,119 | Form |
MU Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Micron scores an 8 due to a highly favorable risk/reward profile driven by an incredibly strong cyclical upswing. The secular tailwind from AI is powerful enough to warrant a high conviction score, even with a contested moat. The primary reason for not scoring higher is the inherent cyclicality of the business; the investment is a bet on the timing and duration of the cycle, not on a permanent, unbreachable competitive advantage.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: Cyclical OpportunityMicron's business is defined by the supply and demand dynamics of the memory industry. The entire investment thesis, as detailed in the provided data, revolves around the timing and magnitude of the current AI-driven 'supercycle', which is a classic feature of a Secular Cyclical stock.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is that an unprecedented, AI-driven demand surge for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is consuming a disproportionate amount of industry capacity. This creates a severe, industry-wide supply shortage for all memory types, granting Micron extreme pricing power and driving gross margins to historically unseen levels, leading to a fundamental re-rating of its earnings power.
- Micron's entire HBM supply is sold out for calendar 2026, providing high near-term revenue visibility.
- DRAM ASPs rose ~65% and NAND ASPs rose ~75% sequentially in Q2 FY2026, demonstrating extreme pricing power.
- Company-level non-GAAP gross margin reached 75% in Q2 FY2026 and is guided to accelerate to ~81% in Q3.
- Forward guidance for Q3 FY2026 revenue is $33.5B, signaling continued, powerful momentum in the cycle.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a classic cyclical bust. Competitors (Samsung, SK Hynix) and Micron itself are engaging in a massive capital expenditure race (Micron >$25B in FY26). This synchronized capacity expansion could lead to an oversupply situation when new fabs come online in 2027-2028, causing a collapse in ASPs and a sharp contraction in margins from their peak.
- The market reacted negatively to Micron's increased FY2026 capex guidance of over $25 billion, fearing a future supply glut.
- Samsung has committed to over $73B in capex and R&D for 2026, indicating an aggressive capacity race.
- Historically, the memory industry has been defined by boom-and-bust cycles driven by this exact dynamic.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin % | >80% | This is the single best indicator of pricing power and the health of the supercycle. Sustaining margins at these levels is critical to the bull thesis. |
| HBM Market Share | Trending towards >25% | Measures competitive execution in the most important growth segment. Continued share gains against SK Hynix and Samsung would validate Micron's technology and execution. |
| Forward Revenue Guidance | Sequential Growth >10% | The rate of change in guidance is the primary leading indicator for cycle momentum. Any deceleration would signal the peak is near. |
AI Supercycle Sustainability vs. Cyclical Capex Bust
BULL VIEW
Unprecedented AI demand for HBM creates a structural supply shortage, giving Micron sustained pricing power and fundamentally re-rating its earnings power higher for longer.
CORE TENSION
Is the current AI-driven demand a structural shift creating a durable high-margin business, or a temporary supercycle that will trigger a classic, capex-fueled bust post-2026?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q3 FY2026 guidance for $33.5B revenue and ~81% gross margin signals the cycle's peak is still ahead, giving the Bull Stance the current edge.
BEAR VIEW
A massive, industry-wide capex race ($25B+ for MU, $73B for Samsung) will create a supply glut post-2026, causing a severe collapse in ASPs and margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late June 2026 | FY26 Q3 Earnings Call Watch: Non-GAAP Gross Margin guidance for Q4. Must remain above the ~81% baseline established in Q3 to prove cycle longevity and pricing power. |
July 2026 | Hyperscaler Earnings Calls (AWS, Azure, GCP) Watch: Forward Capex Guidance. Watch for any mention of a 'digestion' or 'optimization' phase, signaling a slowdown in AI infrastructure build-out. |
Late September 2026 | FY26 Q4 Earnings Call Watch: Initial FY2027 Capex outlook. Will spending accelerate beyond the ~$25B FY26 baseline, signaling a continued capacity race with competitors? |
Next 3-6 Months | US-China 'MATCH Act' Legislation Vote Watch: Headline: Bill passes a vote in the House or Senate. This would escalate the US-China tech war significantly. |
Next 6 Months | Chinese Competitor Production Updates (YMTC/CXMT) Watch: Headline: YMTC or CXMT announce the start of mass production at new mega-fabs, signaling new supply entering the market. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-10-24 | CHIPS Act Funding Finalized Details: Micron finalized its agreement for $6.1B in U.S. CHIPS Act grants to support factory construction in Idaho and New York. The stock reaction was flat as this was previously announced. | +0.49% $218.83 -> $219.91 |
2025-11-20 | Investor Day Details: Company hosted an investor day outlining long-term strategy, focusing on HBM leadership and U.S. expansion plans. Stock rose significantly by 3% on the positive outlook. | +2.98% $201.20 -> $207.19 |
2025-12-17 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Stock surged over 10% after reporting record Q1 revenue of $13.6B (+57% YoY) and guiding Q2 significantly above estimates, confirming accelerating cycle momentum. | +10.21% $225.33 -> $248.34 |
2026-02-26 | HBM4 Production Announcement Details: Micron announced high-volume production of HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. The stock reaction was muted (-0.8%) as this was largely expected to maintain competitiveness. | -0.77% $415.38 -> $412.19 |
2026-03-18 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance Details: Despite revenue nearly tripling (+196% YoY) and reporting a 75% gross margin, stock fell notably by -3.8% as FY26 capex guidance was raised to over $25 billion. | -3.78% $461.53 -> $444.08 |
2026-04-14 | Analyst Upgrades and Sector Momentum Details: Stock surged 9.2% as analysts raised price targets, citing reports that HBM capacity is now sold out through 2027, a year longer than previously expected. | +9.17% $426.56 -> $465.66 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is trading with explosive volatility (71%), nearly 6x the S&P 500, with near-term fear spiking. Although fundamentals are bullish, the 'Explosive' regime caps position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ASML
SECTORUnlike MU's cyclical commodity model, ASML has a near-monopoly on EUV lithography equipment, a critical bottleneck for all advanced chip production, giving it immense, durable pricing power.
LRCX
SECTORLam Research has a less cyclical business model than Micron, with significant recurring revenue from services. It possesses a strong moat in etch and deposition equipment.
Micron is re-rating from a cyclical commodity memory producer to a strategic enabler of the AI era, driven by extreme demand for its high-margin High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and a structurally undersupplied market for both DRAM and NAND.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI-driven memory supercycle; focus on sustainability of pricing power and HBM execution.
Multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) being signed; HBM4/HBM4E design wins with NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform; sustained high-70s/80s gross margins; capex discipline relative to demand.
Any signs of a memory pricing downturn before 2027; loss of HBM market share to SK Hynix or Samsung; a significant slowdown in AI server demand; aggressive, unannounced capacity additions by competitors.
Quarterly fluctuations in PC and smartphone shipments — the market is currently supply-constrained by data center demand; minor shifts in legacy DRAM spot prices; insider sales under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans.
Repricing Catalyst
The unprecedented demand for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI accelerators, which has led to a severe, industry-wide supply shortage for all memory types. Micron's supply is sold out for calendar 2026, driving DRAM ASPs up ~65% and NAND ASPs up ~75% sequentially in Q2. This has propelled gross margins to a record 75% and is expected to push them to ~81% in Q3 FY2026, a level never before seen in the company's history.
DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory)
$18.8B TTM (79% of Total) · 75% MarginWhat It Is
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) for AI accelerators, LPDDR5X for mobile devices, DDR5 for servers and PCs, and graphics memory (GDDR7).
Who Pays & How
AI accelerator makers (e.g., NVIDIA for its Vera Rubin platform) and data center operators pay for HBM due to its critical role in AI processing performance; it's a non-substitutable component. PC and smartphone OEMs must qualify Micron's memory for their devices, creating a 1-2 year design-in lock.
Competition
NAND (Flash Memory)
$5.0B TTM (21% of Total) · 75% MarginWhat It Is
Solid-State Drives (SSDs) for client, enterprise, and data center; managed NAND for mobile and automotive applications.
Who Pays & How
Data center operators pay for high-performance enterprise SSDs to accelerate storage-intensive workloads. PC and mobile OEMs pay for client SSDs and managed NAND as core components.
Competition
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