Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (3/16/2026): $449.43 | Market Cap: $505.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (3/16/2026): $449.43Market Cap: $505.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 171%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 324% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 171%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 324% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Micron Technology (MU) stock has gained about 80% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Micron reported exceptional fiscal Q1 2026 results and provided an optimistic Q2 outlook.
On December 17, 2025, Micron announced Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $13.64 billion, marking a 56.65% year-over-year increase and a 21% sequential rise, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.78, a 167.04% increase year-over-year, substantially beating expectations. The company also saw gross margin expand to 56.8%. Furthermore, Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 guidance projected record revenue of approximately $18.7 billion (a 137% year-over-year increase) and non-GAAP EPS of about $8.42 (a 452% year-over-year surge), with gross margins expected around 68%. These strong results and forward-looking statements indicated a robust financial turnaround driven by accelerating demand.
2. Unprecedented demand for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI applications drove significant growth and revenue visibility.
Micron has sold out its entire HBM production capacity for calendar year 2026 through binding price and volume agreements with hyperscale customers. The company's management has projected the HBM total addressable market (TAM) to increase from approximately $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion by 2028, a forecast pulled forward by roughly two years from prior estimates. HBM gross margins are reported to be in the 60% to 70% range. This intense demand for HBM chips, which consume three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory chips, has led to a structural memory shortage expected to persist into 2027. Micron's role as a core HBM supplier for NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 50 Blackwell GPUs further solidified its position in the AI supply chain.
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1. Micron reported exceptional fiscal Q1 2026 results and provided an optimistic Q2 outlook.
On December 17, 2025, Micron announced Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue of $13.64 billion, marking a 56.65% year-over-year increase and a 21% sequential rise, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.78, a 167.04% increase year-over-year, substantially beating expectations. The company also saw gross margin expand to 56.8%. Furthermore, Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 guidance projected record revenue of approximately $18.7 billion (a 137% year-over-year increase) and non-GAAP EPS of about $8.42 (a 452% year-over-year surge), with gross margins expected around 68%. These strong results and forward-looking statements indicated a robust financial turnaround driven by accelerating demand.
2. Unprecedented demand for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI applications drove significant growth and revenue visibility.
Micron has sold out its entire HBM production capacity for calendar year 2026 through binding price and volume agreements with hyperscale customers. The company's management has projected the HBM total addressable market (TAM) to increase from approximately $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion by 2028, a forecast pulled forward by roughly two years from prior estimates. HBM gross margins are reported to be in the 60% to 70% range. This intense demand for HBM chips, which consume three times the semiconductor wafer capacity of standard memory chips, has led to a structural memory shortage expected to persist into 2027. Micron's role as a core HBM supplier for NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 50 Blackwell GPUs further solidified its position in the AI supply chain.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.3% change in MU stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 236.38 | 426.13 | 80.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,378 | 42,312 | 13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 23.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.1 | 40.3 | 29.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,122 | 1,125 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 80.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 48.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.4% | 61.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 258.4% change in MU stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 88.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.89 | 426.13 | 258.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,813 | 42,312 | 25.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 28.1% | 52.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 40.3 | 88.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,118 | 1,125 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 258.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 258.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 66.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 356.6% change in MU stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 110.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.32 | 426.13 | 356.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,094 | 42,312 | 45.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 28.1% | 110.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 40.3 | 50.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,111 | 1,125 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 356.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 356.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 65.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 73.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 647.7% change in MU stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 300.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.99 | 426.13 | 647.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,156 | 42,312 | 55.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 23.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 40.3 | 300.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,090 | 1,125 | -3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 647.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MU | 647.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 57.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 66.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MU Return | 24% | -46% | 72% | -1% | 240% | 47% | 471% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -48% | 112% | 23% | 100% | 12% | 342% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MU Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 63% | 53% | 60% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MU Max Drawdown | -12% | -47% | 0% | -7% | -23% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -54% | -3% | -19% | -25% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. See MU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 742.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,680 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WDC, INTC, NVDA, AMD, QCOM
In The Past
Micron Technology's stock fell -49.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -49.8% loss requires a 99.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Micron Technology (MU)
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Storage Business Unit, and Embedded Business Unit. It provides memory and storage technologies comprises DRAM products, which are dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high-speed data retrieval; NAND products that are non-volatile and re-writeable semiconductor storage devices; and NOR memory products, which are non-volatile re-writable semiconductor memory devices that provide fast read speeds under the Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private labels. The company offers memory products for the cloud server, enterprise, client, graphics, and networking markets, as well as for smartphone and other mobile-device markets; SSDs and component-level solutions for the enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; other discrete storage products in component and wafers; and memory and storage products for the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. It markets its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; and web-based customer direct sales channel, as well as through channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Micron Technology:
- Micron is like Intel for computer memory chips.
- Micron is like Samsung, but solely focused on making memory and storage chips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) Products: Semiconductor devices offering low-latency, high-speed data retrieval for various computing applications.
- NAND Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor storage devices primarily used for data storage.
- NOR Memory Products: Non-volatile, re-writable semiconductor memory devices providing fast read speeds.
- SSDs (Solid State Drives): Storage devices and component-level solutions for enterprise, cloud, client, and consumer markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on the company description, Micron Technology primarily designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products as components and solutions to other businesses for integration into their final products. Therefore, its major customers are other companies rather than individuals.
Major customers for Micron Technology typically include large-scale manufacturers and cloud service providers across the following sectors:
- Smartphone and Mobile Device Manufacturers: Companies that integrate Micron's memory and storage into smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices.
- Example: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- PC, Server, and Enterprise System Manufacturers: Companies that utilize Micron's DRAM, NAND, and SSD solutions for client PCs, enterprise servers, and data center infrastructure.
- Example: Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
- Cloud Service Providers and Hyperscalers: Large technology companies that build and operate massive data centers requiring vast amounts of memory and storage for their cloud computing services.
- Example: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) for its Azure cloud platform.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MU.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 01162026 | MU | Micron Technology | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 02282023 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 56.2% | -6.8% |
| 08312022 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 24.8% | -13.5% |
| 10312018 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.1% | 26.1% | -23.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 186.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| Rev LTM | 43,590 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,950 |
| FCF LTM | 5,694 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,886 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,752 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 32.6 |
| P/E | 31.2 |
| P/CFO | 28.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 90.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 353.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 52.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 85.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 316.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | 11,667 | ||||
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 4,984 | ||||
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 4,631 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 3,792 | ||||
| All Other | 37 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 25 |
| Unallocated | 0 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | 5,710 | 13,693 | 12,280 | 9,184 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 3,637 | 5,235 | 4,209 | 2,759 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | 3,630 | 7,260 | 7,203 | 5,702 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | 2,553 | 4,553 | 3,973 | 3,765 | |
| Total | 25,111 | 15,540 | 30,758 | 27,705 | 21,435 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) | 432 | ||||
| Unallocated | 356 | -1,913 | -579 | -1,384 | -416 |
| Core Data Center Business Unit (CDBU) | 255 | ||||
| Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) | 244 | ||||
| All Other | 18 | 8 | 12 | 20 | -2 |
| Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) | -1 | ||||
| Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) | -585 | 5,844 | 4,295 | 2,010 | |
| Embedded Business Unit (EBU) | 382 | 1,752 | 1,006 | 301 | |
| Mobile Business Unit (MBU) | -1,750 | 2,160 | 2,173 | 1,074 | |
| Storage Business Unit (SBU) | -1,887 | 513 | 173 | 36 | |
| Total | 1,304 | -5,745 | 9,702 | 6,283 | 3,003 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $426.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 479.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $387.87 | $222.89 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.9% | 91.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.9% | 63.9% |
| Downside Capture | 141.18 | 143.76 |
| Upside Capture | 543.08 | 270.68 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.8% | 65.0% |
MU Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.90 | 2.19 | 2.71 | 2.98 | 2.14 | 2.02 |
| Up Beta | 2.19 | 1.69 | 3.23 | 3.03 | 1.89 | 1.85 |
| Down Beta | 0.87 | 1.06 | 1.84 | 2.78 | 2.62 | 2.23 |
| Up Capture | 204% | 534% | 646% | 1025% | 807% | 2746% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 31 | 73 | 144 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 224% | 128% | 116% | 145% | 123% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 30 | 51 | 107 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 349.7% | 63.8% | 2.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 0.95 | 72.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 64.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 27.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 29.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 38.7% | 49.6% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.7% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 67.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 60.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 15.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 25.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 43.4% | 48.4% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 66.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 60.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/17/2025 | 10.2% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| 9/23/2025 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 19.3% |
| 6/25/2025 | -1.0% | -4.3% | -12.5% |
| 3/20/2025 | -8.0% | -11.5% | -35.1% |
| 12/18/2024 | -16.2% | -13.6% | 5.3% |
| 9/25/2024 | 14.7% | 4.3% | 11.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -7.1% | -3.9% | -23.1% |
| 3/20/2024 | 14.1% | 23.9% | 11.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -6.1% | -10.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 27.1% | 61.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.6% | -35.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2025 | 12/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/30/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arnzen, April S | EVP and Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 277.09 | 15,000 | 4,156,350 | 45,891,092 | Form |
| 2 | Gomo, Steven J | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 263.63 | 5,000 | 1,318,150 | 5,045,615 | Form | |
| 3 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 241.34 | 8,757 | 2,113,441 | 96,614,699 | Form |
| 4 | Mehrotra, Sanjay | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 233.39 | 3,743 | 873,567 | 92,556,142 | Form |
| 5 | Murphy, Mark J | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 225.31 | 126,000 | 28,389,111 | 49,499,119 | Form |
MU Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis benefits from a powerful, AI-driven cycle that justifies a bullish probability weighting (60/40), which converts the raw negative asymmetry into a positive probability-adjusted skew of 1.29x. However, the raw risk/reward is not compelling on its own, and the 'CONTESTED' competitive moat against aggressive rivals caps conviction. The resulting outlook is balanced, falling short of a high-conviction buy but above an outright sell, placing the stock at Market Weight.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityMicron operates in the memory market, which is characterized by well-documented boom-and-bust cycles driven by supply/demand imbalances. The raw data explicitly identifies the revenue archetype as 'The Commodity Extractor (Price-Taker)' and the primary risk as a 'Commodity Price Crash', making this the only appropriate classification.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Micron is capitalizing on a structural, AI-driven demand surge for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is creating a severe supply-demand imbalance across the memory industry. This allows for a significant positive mix shift towards higher-margin HBM products and grants the company substantial pricing power, leading to rapid revenue acceleration and margin expansion.
Mechanism:
Selling a higher proportion of premium HBM units at elevated prices due to an industry-wide supply shortage, directly boosting average selling prices (ASPs), gross margins, and earnings power.
Supporting Evidence:
- The High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) TAM is projected to grow at a ~40% CAGR, reaching $100 billion by 2028.
- Micron's entire 2026 HBM supply is sold out under contract with set pricing, providing high revenue visibility.
- Company guidance for Q2 2026 includes a gross margin forecast of ~68%, representing significant expansion.
- DRAM prices rose approximately 20% in the last reported quarter alone, indicating a strong pricing environment.
PRIMARY RISK
Aggressive HBM capacity expansion and technological advancements by primary competitors, Samsung and SK Hynix, pose a significant threat to Micron's market share and pricing power. There is a tangible risk of being designed out of next-generation AI accelerator platforms, which would cap Micron's participation in the most profitable segment of the memory market.
Mechanism:
Competitors flood the market with next-generation HBM, causing prices to fall and compressing margins. Key customers like Nvidia lock in long-term supply agreements with rivals for future platforms, leaving Micron with lower-value, commoditized volume.
Supporting Evidence:
- Samsung announced plans for a 50% increase in HBM capacity by the end of 2026.
- Reports indicate SK Hynix has already secured over two-thirds of HBM supply orders for Nvidia's next-generation 'Vera Rubin' AI platform.
- Micron's historical deficit is a 'Unit Cost Advantage' relative to the larger scale of Samsung and the focused HBM leadership of SK Hynix.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| HBM Market Share | Maintain > 20% | Validates that product performance is competitive enough to capture value in the highest-margin growth segment. A decline would signal a loss of technological parity. |
| Gross Margin % (Non-GAAP) | Sustain above 60% | This is a primary leading indicator of industry pricing power. A sustained decline below this level would be the first signal that the upcycle is peaking and supply is catching up to demand. |
| Competitor HBM CapEx Announcements | Watch for >25% upward revisions in announced HBM wafer starts from Samsung/SK Hynix | This is a leading indicator of future oversupply. A significant acceleration in competitor spending would directly threaten the thesis of a prolonged supply-demand imbalance. |
Core Investment Debate
AI Super-Cycle vs. Architectural Lock-Out
BULL VIEW
An unprecedented, AI-driven supply shortage grants Micron extreme pricing power and visibility, leading to record revenue and margins through 2026.
CORE TENSION
Can Micron's sold-out HBM capacity and pricing power overcome the risk of being technologically leapfrogged by competitors in next-generation AI platforms?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
Company's Q2 FY26 guidance for revenue to accelerate to +132% YoY with non-GAAP Gross Margins expanding to ~68%.
BEAR VIEW
Competitors (SK Hynix, Samsung) are securing dominant positions in next-gen HBM, risking Micron's exclusion from key AI platforms like Nvidia's 'Rubin'.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
March 16-19, 2026 | Nvidia GTC Conference Watch: Micron's inclusion as a named HBM4 partner for the next-gen 'Rubin' platform in the keynote. |
Late March 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings & Q3 Guidance Watch: Guidance on non-HBM DRAM/NAND pricing. A deceleration in the rate of price increases signals a cyclical peak. |
Ongoing | Macro: 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement Watch: 10-Year Treasury Yield breaking above 4.5%. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
9/23/2025 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported record fiscal 2025 revenue of $37.4 billion. Despite the strong results, the stock pulled back slightly, suggesting a 'sell the news' reaction. | Fell notably by -2.8% $166.23 -> $161.54 |
12/19/2025 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings and Guidance Details: Micron reported record Q1 revenue and provided a blockbuster Q2 forecast for $18.7B revenue and ~68% gross margin, significantly exceeding all prior expectations. | Rose significantly by 4.0% $265.81 -> $276.47 |
1/6/2026 | Micron Finalizes CHIPS Act Funding Details: The company announced the formal finalization of up to $6.4 billion in U.S. CHIPS Act grants to support its domestic manufacturing expansion. | Stock Surged +10.0% $312.15 -> $343.43 |
1/22/2026 | Competitor SK Hynix Reports Blockbuster Earnings Details: Key competitor SK Hynix reported record results and confirmed extreme tightness in the HBM market, lifting sentiment for the entire memory sector. | Rose significantly by 2.2% $389.11 -> $397.58 |
1/28/2026 | Stock Hits New 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a new high, propelled by a wave of analyst upgrades and broad positive sentiment regarding the AI memory cycle's strength and durability. | Stock Surged +6.1% $410.24 -> $435.28 |
2/2/2026 | Industry Analyst Sharply Upgrades Price Forecasts Details: TrendForce dramatically raised its Q1 2026 price forecasts for DRAM to a 90-95% QoQ increase, citing severe shortages and validating the super-cycle thesis. | Stock Surged +5.5% $414.88 -> $437.80 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
NORMAL
Diversification Alternatives
How Is The Market Pricing MU?
Micron is re-rating from a cyclical memory chip provider to a core enabler of the AI infrastructure buildout, with its valuation now driven by long-term demand for high-value products like HBM rather than just commodity memory cycles, trading at a Trailing P/E of 40.70.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI-driven memory supercycle: Is the news confirming sustained, high-margin demand from AI data centers, or does it signal a return to cyclical, commodity-driven dynamics?
What will confirm the thesis
Sustained >20% quarterly price increases in DRAM and NAND; announcements of long-term agreements for HBM with hyperscalers (e.g., Nvidia, Google, Amazon); competitor commentary (Samsung, SK Hynix) confirming disciplined supply and capex; upward revisions to AI server growth forecasts.
What will damage the thesis
Aggressive, unannounced capacity expansion from Chinese competitors (e.g., YMTC targeting >15% NAND share); a slowdown in AI accelerator demand from key customers; significant inventory builds at hyperscalers signaling demand saturation; a breakdown in industry supply discipline leading to a price war.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in PC or smartphone unit sales — the primary driver is now high-value data center demand; short-term commodity spot price swings — long-term contract pricing is more indicative of the thesis; minor market share shifts of 1-2% between the top 3 players — the overall market pricing power is more important.
Repricing Catalyst
The structural shift in demand caused by generative AI, which requires massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-density DRAM/NAND. This has created a supply-constrained environment, giving Micron significant pricing power. The company's entire 2026 HBM supply is reportedly committed under long-term agreements, transforming a significant portion of its revenue from cyclical to recurring, driving record gross margins (guided to 68% for Q2 FY26) and profitability (guided to $8.42 EPS for Q2 FY26).
What MU Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q1 FY2026 Earnings Press Release, Dec 17, 2025
Cloud & AI Memory (DRAM)
$21.2B TTM (39% of Total) · 66% MarginWhat It Is
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), DDR5/DDR4 high-capacity DIMMs, LPDDR5, and GDDR6 memory products for AI accelerators and hyperscale servers.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscale cloud providers (e.g. Google, Amazon, Microsoft) and AI hardware leaders (e.g. Nvidia) pay for essential high-performance memory needed to run AI training and inference workloads. Qualification for these platforms creates high switching costs and a 2-3 year design cycle lock-in.
Per-unit sales to hyperscalers and OEMs, with increasing use of long-term agreements for HBM capacity.
Competition
SK Hynix
SK Hynix currently leads the HBM market, particularly with a strong relationship with Nvidia and a faster ramp of HBM3E. [DATED: Feb 2026]
Technology leadership at scale. Micron is ramping its 1-gamma DRAM node and HBM products, competing in an oligopoly where only three players (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) can service the high end of the market.
Mobile & PC Memory (DRAM & NAND)
$17.0B TTM (31% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
LPDDR5/LPDDR4 DRAM, managed NAND, and client SSDs (Solid State Drives) for smartphones, PCs, and laptops.
Who Pays & How
Major smartphone and PC OEMs (e.g., Apple, Dell, HP) pay for qualified memory and storage components essential for their devices. Long qualification cycles and deep supply chain integration create stickiness for the lifespan of a product model.
Per-unit sales to OEMs.
Competition
Samsung Electronics
Samsung is the largest memory manufacturer with the largest scale and R&D budget, allowing it to compete aggressively on price and technology across all product segments.
Micron's US-based manufacturing and R&D provide a geopolitical advantage, and its technology is at parity with competitors on leading-edge nodes (1-gamma).
Core Enterprise & Data Center Storage (NAND)
$9.6B TTM (17% of Total) · 51% MarginWhat It Is
Enterprise-grade SSDs (e.g., PCIe Gen6), QLC/TLC NAND components for storage arrays.
Who Pays & How
Enterprise OEM server makers (e.g., Dell, HPE) and cloud providers pay for high-performance, reliable solid-state storage for their systems. Extensive validation and qualification processes create significant switching costs.
Per-unit sales of SSDs and NAND components.
Competition
Samsung Electronics - NAND Flash
Samsung holds the #1 market share position in NAND flash, benefiting from superior scale and vertical integration.
Micron's 232-layer 3D NAND technology is competitive, and its focus on high-value QLC NAND for AI data platforms provides a differentiated offering.
Automotive & Embedded
$6.9B TTM (13% of Total) · 45% MarginWhat It Is
Automotive-grade LPDRAM, NAND, and NOR memory for in-vehicle infotainment (IVI), advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and industrial IoT devices.
Who Pays & How
Automotive OEMs, Tier-1 suppliers, and industrial equipment manufacturers pay for highly reliable, long-lifecycle memory and storage qualified for harsh operating environments. Design cycles are very long (5-7 years), creating extremely high switching costs.
Per-unit sales to OEMs and component distributors.
Competition
Samsung Electronics - Automotive Memory
Samsung's scale allows it to offer a broad portfolio of automotive-qualified memory products.
Micron has a strong, long-standing position in the automotive market, with deep customer relationships and a reputation for quality and long-lifecycle product support.
MU Evolution: Price Return by Era
1978–2012 · The Commodity Cycle Survivor
Navigating Boom and Bust Volatile with multiple deep drawdowns
Founded in 1978, Micron endured decades of intense competition and volatile boom-and-bust cycles in the DRAM market. The company grew through a combination of manufacturing prowess and strategic acquisitions of competitors' assets, such as Texas Instruments' memory business, establishing itself as the sole US-based DRAM manufacturer.
2013–2022 · Consolidation and Scale
Becoming a Global Top 3 Player +228% (Jan 2013 - Dec 2013)
The transformative acquisition of Elpida Memory in 2013 for $2 billion solidified Micron's position as one of the three dominant global players in the consolidated memory industry, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. This era focused on achieving scale and technology parity, expanding into NAND flash, and supplying key growth markets like mobile and early cloud data centers, though still subject to significant industry cyclicality.
2023–Present · The AI Supercycle
Enabler of Artificial Intelligence +360% (Feb 2025 - Feb 2026)
Beginning with the generative AI explosion in 2023, the demand for high-performance memory (HBM) and storage for AI servers structurally altered the market. This created a supply-constrained supercycle, catapulting Micron from a cyclical commodity producer to a critical enabler of a secular technology shift, resulting in record revenue and profitability. The company is now investing over $100 billion in US-based manufacturing to meet this long-term demand.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway. NOTE: Volume character and price structure are diverging. The structural trend is not confirmed by institutional flow. This divergence typically resolves in the direction of volume, not price.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · -
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2
Momentum
Decelerating
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3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
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4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Neutral / Mixed
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5
Volatility
Normal
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6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Flat
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
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8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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External Quote Links
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