Strategy (MSTR)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $188.54 | Market Cap: $63.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Strategy (MSTR)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $188.54Market Cap: $63.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Asset Custody. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.2% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 128x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 139x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4515% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% Key risksMSTR key risks include [1] an extreme dependency on Bitcoin's price volatility, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Blockchain Enterprise Solutions, and Digital Asset Custody. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 128x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 139x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4515% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
| Key risksMSTR key risks include [1] an extreme dependency on Bitcoin's price volatility, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy. MicroStrategy significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings, increasing them by 22% since January 2026 to a total of 818,334 BTC by the end of Q1 2026, solidifying its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally. This ongoing strategy, which included substantial purchases such as over 41,000 BTC in January and an additional 4,871 BTC for $330 million in early April 2026, reinforced investor confidence in MSTR as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin exposure.
2. Bitcoin Market Rebound. Following a correction from its peak above $126,000 in October 2025 to the mid-$60,000s by February 2026, Bitcoin experienced a notable recovery. The cryptocurrency surged over 31% from its yearly low by May 1, 2026, breaking out of a multi-month downtrend and reaching approximately $80,077 by May 5, 2026. This upward momentum in Bitcoin's price directly contributed to the positive trend in MicroStrategy's stock.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.3% change in MSTR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.71 | 187.59 | 25.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 475 | 490 | 3.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 89.6 | 127.7 | 42.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 284 | 334 | -14.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR | 25.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 64.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.1% | 63.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.4% change in MSTR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 269.51 | 187.59 | -30.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 462 | 490 | 6.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 160.5 | 127.7 | -20.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 275 | 334 | -17.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR | -30.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.1% | 52.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.6% change in MSTR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 380.11 | 187.59 | -50.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 463 | 490 | 5.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 182.2 | 127.7 | -29.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 222 | 334 | -33.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -50.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR | -50.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 47.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.1% | 49.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 471.3% change in MSTR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 1605.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.84 | 187.59 | 471.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 499 | 490 | -1.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 7.5 | 127.7 | 1605.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 334 | -65.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 471.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSTR | 471.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.6% | 40.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSTR Return | 40% | -74% | 346% | 359% | -48% | 18% | 363% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -22% | 54% | 35% | 24% | -7% | 155% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSTR Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 58% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 62% | 65% | 52% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSTR Max Drawdown | 0% | -75% | 0% | -29% | -48% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -33% | -4% | -6% | -20% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, CRM, ORCL, GOOGL, IBM. See MSTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 266.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 539 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Strategy's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MSTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 266.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 539 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1759 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1172 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Strategy's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Strategy (MSTR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Imagine Tableau or Microsoft Power BI, but an entire enterprise-grade platform built for the complex data analysis and insight needs of very large organizations.
It's like a specialized Oracle or SAP, but 100% focused on turning a large organization's vast data into actionable business intelligence and custom analytic applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- MicroStrategy Enterprise Platform: A comprehensive enterprise analytics platform delivering insights across devices through hyperintelligence, visualization, reporting, mobility, and custom applications.
- MicroStrategy Support: Services providing troubleshooting, technical product support, and assistance to achieve system availability and uptime goals.
- MicroStrategy Consulting: Services offering architecture and implementation expertise to help customers quickly realize results and maximize data-derived ROI.
- MicroStrategy Education: Learning options, both free and paid, designed to help users understand and utilize the MicroStrategy platform effectively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) sells its enterprise analytics software and services primarily to other companies (B2B model) and public sector organizations, rather than to individuals.
As per its public disclosures and the provided background, MicroStrategy serves a diverse customer base across various industries. The company does not publicly disclose specific names of its "major customers" or individual client companies. This indicates that its revenue is not heavily concentrated on a few named clients, and it maintains a broad portfolio of customers.
Instead, MicroStrategy describes the categories of organizations it serves. These include companies from a wide range of industries, such as:
- Retail
- Consulting
- Technology
- Manufacturing
- Finance
- Banking
- Insurance
- Healthcare
- Education
- Telecommunications
- Public sector (government agencies)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Michael J. Saylor Executive Chairman
Michael J. Saylor co-founded MicroStrategy in 1989 and served as its CEO until August 2022, when he transitioned to Executive Chairman. He graduated from MIT with dual degrees in aeronautics and astronautics and science, technology and society. Saylor is credited as the inventor of relational analytics and led MicroStrategy into web analytics, distributed analytics, mobile analytics, cloud computing, mobile identity, and IoT. He also founded Alarm.com (NASDAQ: ALRM) and Angel.com, which was sold to Genesys Telecommunications Laboratories for $110 million in 2013. He currently chairs MicroStrategy's Investments Committee, overseeing the company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
Phong Le President & Chief Executive Officer
Phong Le was appointed President & Chief Executive Officer of MicroStrategy in August 2022. Prior to this role, he held various senior executive positions within MicroStrategy since joining in August 2015, including President, President & Chief Financial Officer, and Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer & Chief Financial Officer. Before MicroStrategy, Le served as the Chief Financial Officer of XO Communications, a privately-held telecommunications company, from August 2014 to August 2015. He also held senior positions at NII Holdings, a Nasdaq-listed telecommunications company, from 2010 to 2014, including Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Vice President of Strategy and Business Operations. Earlier in his career, he worked in the consulting practice at Deloitte from 1998 to 2010. He holds a B.S. in Biomedical Engineering from Johns Hopkins University and an MBA from MIT Sloan.
Andrew Kang Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Kang joined MicroStrategy as Chief Financial Officer in 2022. Before MicroStrategy, he served as Chief Financial Officer at GreenSky from 2020 to 2022. His professional background includes roles at Santander US as Corporate Treasurer from 2018 to 2020, and as Executive Vice President at Santander Consumer USA Inc. from 2015 to 2020. He also held positions at Exeter Finance Corp, HSBC, and Capital One. Additionally, Andrew Kang is a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, recognized as the co-founder and partner of Mechanism Capital, a crypto venture capital firm established in 2020, and has been active in DeFi since 2018.
Ponna Arumugam Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Information Officer
Ponna Arumugam oversees MicroStrategy's information technology strategy and customer operations. Her expertise spans IT management, technology innovation, and customer service optimization. Prior to her role at MicroStrategy, she served as Chief Technology Officer at HCL Technologies and Chief Information Officer at CEB.
Wei-Ming Shao Senior Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary
Wei-Ming Shao serves as Senior Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary for MicroStrategy Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to MicroStrategy (MSTR)
-
Bitcoin Price Volatility and Financial Leverage
MicroStrategy's financial health and stock performance are predominantly tied to the volatile price of Bitcoin, which the company holds in substantial amounts as its primary treasury reserve asset. The company has amassed its Bitcoin through significant issuances of both debt and equity. A sharp or prolonged decline in Bitcoin's price could materially impact the company's financial results, liquidity, and its ability to service its substantial debt obligations (exceeding $8.2 billion as of March 2026). Such a scenario might force MicroStrategy to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings under unfavorable conditions, potentially accelerating a market sell-off and making future capital raises more expensive or even impossible. -
Shareholder Dilution and Debt Burden
To continue its strategy of acquiring Bitcoin, MicroStrategy frequently issues new common stock and convertible bonds. While this enables the company to raise capital, it results in the dilution of existing shareholders' ownership. The substantial debt burden accumulated through these financing activities requires continuous access to capital markets, and the cost and availability of such financing are highly sensitive to the market value of Bitcoin. -
Risk of Exclusion from Major Stock Indices
MicroStrategy faces the risk of being removed from major stock indices, such as the MSCI or Nasdaq 100, if its proportion of digital assets becomes excessively high relative to its core enterprise analytics software business. If such an exclusion occurs, passive investment funds tracking these indices would be mandated to sell their holdings of MSTR shares, which could exert significant downward pressure on the stock price and amplify its volatility. This event would also likely complicate future efforts to raise capital.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing adoption of comprehensive, integrated business intelligence and data analytics services offered directly by major hyperscale cloud providers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform). These platforms provide end-to-end data solutions, from ingestion and warehousing to processing, analytics, and visualization, often deeply integrated with other cloud infrastructure and services. This trend encourages enterprises to consolidate their entire data and analytics stack within a single cloud ecosystem, potentially reducing the need for standalone, specialized enterprise analytics platforms like MicroStrategy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlThe addressable markets for MicroStrategy's main products and services, which primarily encompass enterprise analytics software and services, are substantial and continue to grow globally and in the U.S.
Global Market Sizes:
- The Global Data and Analytics Software Market was valued at USD 141 billion in 2023. This market is projected to reach USD 345.32 billion by 2030, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2024 to 2030.
- The Global Business Intelligence (BI) Market is projected to reach $72.1 billion globally in the next 12 months. Other estimates place the global business intelligence market size at USD 34.82 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 72.21 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 8.40%. Another report indicates a valuation of USD 40.13 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 81.45 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2026 to 2033.
- The Global Data Analytics Market was estimated at USD 69.54 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 302.01 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 28.7% from 2025 to 2030.
- The Global Enterprise Business Analytics Software Market generated USD 159.9 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 364.9 billion by 2034, recording a CAGR of 10.90%. Separately, the Enterprise Analytics Software Market is projected to grow from US$226.404 billion in 2025 to US$416.205 billion by the end of 2030, at a CAGR of 12.95%.
U.S. Market Sizes:
- Within the Business Intelligence (BI) market, the U.S. is expected to account for $27.3 billion in spending in the next 12 months. It also represents $13.79 billion of the BI market in 2024, nearly half of the global total. The U.S. business intelligence market is predicted to reach an estimated value of USD 12,821.9 million by 2032.
- The U.S. Data and Analytics Software Market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% from 2024 to 2030.
- The U.S. Enterprise Business Analytics Software Market revenue reached USD 58.9 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:
- Growth in Subscription Services for Enterprise Analytics Software: MicroStrategy's traditional enterprise analytics software business is focusing on increasing its recurring revenue streams. The company reported a significant 61.6% year-over-year increase in subscription services revenues in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong trend in this area. This emphasis on subscription-based offerings is aimed at providing stable and long-term growth prospects for its software segment.
- Innovation and Expansion of AI-powered Enterprise Analytics Software: The company is actively enhancing its software platform by integrating advanced AI-driven analytics capabilities. This strategy, part of its "Intelligence Everywhere" vision, aims to strengthen its position in the enterprise software market. By offering more sophisticated and valuable solutions, MicroStrategy anticipates driving increased adoption, leading to higher revenue from product licenses and subscription services.
- Expansion and Monetization of its Digital Credit Ecosystem and Bitcoin-backed Financial Products: MicroStrategy is developing and scaling its "Digital Credit" platform, which includes instruments like the Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC). These offerings are designed to provide investors with varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin and to extract more value from digital currencies. While these instruments also serve as capital-raising mechanisms for Bitcoin acquisitions, their expansion is anticipated to generate new revenue streams through associated fees, services, or other financial product offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- MicroStrategy has not made any share repurchases over the last 3-5 years. The share buybacks for MSTR stock were $0.00.
Share Issuance
- MicroStrategy has actively issued new shares through at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings to raise capital primarily for Bitcoin acquisitions.
- In 2025 alone, the company raised $25.3 billion in capital, making it the largest equity issuer among U.S. public companies for a second consecutive year, using these funds to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
- The company has also issued various convertible notes and perpetual preferred stocks, such as STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRC, to fund Bitcoin purchases. As of January 25, 2026, approximately $8.17 billion was available for future common stock issuance under its ATM program.
Inbound Investments
- The company's primary inbound investments are the substantial capital raises through equity and debt offerings, specifically to fund its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
- In February 2025, MicroStrategy raised $584 million through an offering of STRK (preferred equity) to acquire more Bitcoin.
- In November 2024, MicroStrategy completed a $3 billion offering of 0% convertible senior notes, with plans to use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.
Outbound Investments
- MicroStrategy's most significant outbound investment is its strategic and continuous accumulation of Bitcoin.
- As of March 9, 2026, MicroStrategy held over 738,731 BTC, acquired for approximately $56 billion.
- The company's stated capital allocation strategy is to opportunistically issue debt and equity to purchase Bitcoin and hold it for the long term.
Capital Expenditures
- MicroStrategy's capital expenditures decreased in 2021 to $2.706 million and in 2022 to $2.486 million.
- Capital expenditures increased in 2023 to $2.938 million, in 2024 to $13.478 million, and peaked in 2025 at $45.212 million.
- For the latest twelve months, MicroStrategy's capital expenditures amounted to $45.212 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MSTR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 06302025 | MSTR | Strategy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -61.6% | -59.1% | -73.5% |
| 05312022 | MSTR | Strategy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -31.2% | 14.0% | -48.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 212.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 389.4 |
| Rev LTM | 66,494 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,812 |
| FCF LTM | 13,330 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,190 |
| CFO LTM | 19,255 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,410 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 389.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.9 |
| P/EBIT | 22.2 |
| P/E | 23.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 108.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 30.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Business | 463 | 496 | |||
| Corporate & Other | 0 | ||||
| Other services | 85 | 85 | 76 | ||
| Product licenses | 86 | 102 | 87 | ||
| Product support | 267 | 281 | 284 | ||
| Subscription services | 61 | 43 | 33 | ||
| Total | 463 | 496 | 499 | 511 | 481 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Business | 175 | 9 | |||
| Corporate & Other | -1,342 | 420 | |||
| Total | -1,167 | 429 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate & Other | 25,100 | 4,292 | |||
| Software Business | 743 | 470 | |||
| Total | 25,844 | 4,763 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $187.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 55.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/11/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -58.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $147.41 | $223.46 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 27.3% | -16.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.1% | 69.2% |
| Downside Capture | 1.51 | 1.95 |
| Upside Capture | 395.29 | 173.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 60.5% | 45.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.46 | 2.80 | 3.88 | 3.17 | 2.59 | 2.40 |
| Up Beta | 1.75 | 1.30 | 3.44 | 3.31 | 1.86 | 2.41 |
| Down Beta | 9.36 | 2.28 | 2.58 | 3.65 | 2.99 | 1.97 |
| Up Capture | 323% | 508% | 641% | 280% | 268% | 9577% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 28 | 55 | 112 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 420% | 273% | 323% | 241% | 201% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 36 | 70 | 139 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | -51.5% | 69.2% | -0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 63.9% | 20.8% | 2.27 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 47.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | 4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 20.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 78.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | 24.6% | 90.8% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.2% | 24.8% | 0.76 | 49.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 49.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 72.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | 26.7% | 73.4% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 41.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 46.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -0.0% | ||
| 2/5/2026 | 26.1% | 15.0% | 29.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | 5.9% | -6.8% | -28.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.8% | 0.0% | -16.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.3% | 8.6% | -2.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.3% | -2.9% | -14.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.1% | 4.2% | 56.7% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.2% | -10.0% | -12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| # Negative | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 14.1% | 32.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -6.8% | -15.7% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 37.8% | 161.0% |
| Max Negative | -17.6% | -14.8% | -28.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patten, Jarrod M | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 183.25 | 2,000 | 366,500 | 5,131,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Patten, Jarrod M | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 173.84 | 2,250 | 391,145 | 4,867,582 | Form | |
| 3 | Patten, Jarrod M | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 163.17 | 1,750 | 285,555 | 4,568,880 | Form | |
| 4 | Patten, Jarrod M | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 178.16 | 2,000 | 356,312 | 4,988,375 | Form | |
| 5 | Patten, Jarrod M | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 172.00 | 500 | 86,000 | 4,816,000 | Form |
MSTR Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock fails on first principles. A business's moat must be durable. MSTR's primary moat—being the only easy way to get Bitcoin exposure in a brokerage account—has been structurally broken by the arrival of spot ETFs. The stock is now a leveraged, high-fee, and complex alternative to a simpler, cheaper product. Its 'ERODING' competitive trajectory and speculative valuation make it fundamentally un-investable, despite the potential for price appreciation from the underlying asset.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type D: 'Binary Innovator'MicroStrategy's stock price is almost entirely decoupled from its legacy software business and is instead a direct, leveraged play on the price of Bitcoin. Its success or failure is contingent on a single, highly volatile external catalyst (Bitcoin appreciation), fitting the 'Binary Innovator' archetype where the innovation is a financial strategy rather than a product.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that MSTR functions as a leveraged Bitcoin acquisition vehicle. By issuing stock at a premium to the net asset value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings, the company can acquire more Bitcoin per dollar of equity issued than a direct investor could, creating accretive value for existing shareholders. This strategy offers investors leveraged exposure to Bitcoin's potential upside.
- As of late April 2026, MicroStrategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 818,334 BTC.
- The company has successfully raised billions in capital through debt and equity offerings to fund its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
- Historically, the stock has traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin NAV, reaching as high as 4x, enabling its acquisition model.
PRIMARY RISK
The approval and rapid growth of low-cost spot Bitcoin ETFs provide investors with a simpler, more direct, and regulated way to gain Bitcoin exposure. This direct competition structurally threatens MSTR's premium to NAV, which is the core mechanism of its value creation strategy. If the premium collapses, the stock will underperform Bitcoin, and its acquisition model breaks.
- The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, creating direct, lower-cost competitors.
- MSTR's premium to NAV has already compressed significantly, from historical highs to as low as 1.16x-1.23x as of March-April 2026.
- During past Bitcoin corrections, MSTR's stock has fallen much more severely than the underlying asset, demonstrating the amplified risk from leverage and premium compression (e.g., a 25% BTC drop led to a 53% MSTR drop in 2025).
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Premium to Bitcoin NAV | Sustained level below 1.1x | The entire accretive acquisition model relies on issuing stock at a meaningful premium. If this premium evaporates, the core 'Alpha Driver' thesis is broken. |
| Bitcoin Price vs. Average Cost Basis | Bitcoin price approaching $75,537 | This is the company's average cost basis. A drop below this level means the entire treasury position is at an unrealized loss, creating significant headline and balance sheet risk. |
| Debt Maturities and Refinancing Capability | Any difficulty or unfavorable terms in refinancing the ~$8.2B debt load | The company's ability to manage its large debt burden is contingent on a high Bitcoin and stock price. A market downturn could create a refinancing crisis. |
The Premium-to-NAV Arbitrage: Sustainable Model or Broken Relic?
BULL VIEW
MSTR offers leveraged Bitcoin exposure. Issuing stock at a premium allows accretive Bitcoin-per-share acquisition, a value-add ETFs cannot replicate.
CORE TENSION
Can MSTR's model of issuing stock at a premium to its Bitcoin NAV survive direct competition from low-cost, physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock's premium to NAV has already compressed from historical highs to a 1.16x-1.23x range, indicating the Bear thesis is actively playing out.
BEAR VIEW
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer simpler, cheaper, direct exposure. This competition will structurally erode MSTR's premium, breaking its core value creation model.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
May 5, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Outlook Watch: Premium to NAV. Watch for any change below the 1.16x floor seen in March 2026. Also, management commentary on debt refinancing strategy. |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Impact of Bitcoin volatility on reported GAAP Net Income. Another multi-billion dollar reported loss could trigger negative headlines and retail selling pressure. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | Bitcoin Price Action Watch: Bitcoin price breaking key technical support, particularly the $60,000 level. MSTR's average cost basis is ~$75,537, a key psychological level. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | Regulatory Development Watch: Any new SEC/Treasury rulemaking or proposed legislation specifically targeting corporate treasury strategies for digital assets. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 14, 2025 | Convertible Note Offering Details: Announced a new debt offering to fund further Bitcoin purchases. The stock drop reflects concerns about balance sheet leverage and dilution. | Fell notably by 4.2% $208.54 -> $199.75 |
Nov 28, 2025 | Bitcoin Acquisition Announcement Details: Company announced the purchase of additional Bitcoin, funded by recent capital raises. The muted reaction suggests such purchases are now expected by the market. | Modest 0.9% gain $175.64 -> $177.18 |
Dec 15, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported earnings miss driven by Bitcoin price volatility, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of financials under the new corporate strategy. | Crashed 8.1% $176.45 -> $162.08 |
Jan 15, 2026 | MSCI Index Exclusion Review Details: MSCI deferred a decision on whether to exclude MSTR from its indexes. The negative reaction indicates investor concern remains despite the delay. | Fell notably by 4.7% $179.33 -> $170.91 |
Mar 1, 2026 | Litigation Settlement Details: Announced a settlement in a securities class-action lawsuit. The positive stock reaction suggests the market saw the resolution as removing an overhang. | Surged +6.3% $129.50 -> $137.65 |
Mar 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Company reported a massive $12.4B net loss, driven by a 1,640% increase in operating loss due to fair-value accounting changes for its Bitcoin holdings. | Fell notably by 4.5% $146.44 -> $139.81 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.9x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, Broken Moat, and Low Visibility create a 'knife catch' scenario, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)
INDUSTRYSuperior, lower-cost vehicle for Bitcoin exposure. Eliminates MSTR's corporate risk, leverage risk, and the primary risk of premium-to-NAV collapse. Managed by BlackRock.
FBTC (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund)
INDUSTRYSimilar to IBIT, it offers a more direct and efficient way to invest in Bitcoin than MSTR. It avoids MSTR's operational business decline and balance sheet complexity.
Qualcomm is re-rating from a volatile, mobile-centric chipmaker to a more stable, diversified Automotive and IoT leader, a transition necessary to offset the structural decline of its high-margin modem business with Apple.
Filter all news through the lens of the Automotive/IoT diversification narrative versus the Apple modem revenue decline.
Automotive or IoT revenue growth >+20% YoY; new Snapdragon Digital Chassis design wins with named automakers; data center custom silicon shipments to hyperscalers commencing; any delay or performance issue with Apple's in-house modem.
Automotive revenue growth decelerating below +20% YoY; loss of market share to MediaTek in the premium Android tier; Apple completely exiting Qualcomm modems ahead of the 2027 schedule; major regulatory challenges to the QTL licensing model.
Quarterly handset market fluctuations, particularly in China already embedded in guidance and management commentary.; Short-term channel inventory adjustments mean-reverting within 1-2 quarters.; Single-model benchmark wins/losses vs MediaTek not a market-share-shift signal until a trend emerges.
Repricing Catalyst
The Automotive segment's acceleration to a >$6 billion annualized run-rate by the end of FY2026, driven by the Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform, is the primary catalyst to offset the impending loss of Apple's modem revenue.
Snapdragon Chips for Handsets
$24.1B TTM (57% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 SoCs for premium Android smartphones; Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF Systems for customers including Apple.
Who Pays & How
Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi are all >10% revenue customers (FY2025 10-K). Samsung pays for Snapdragon chips in a majority of its flagship Galaxy devices because of performance leadership and deep system integration, creating high switching costs within a product cycle. Apple pays for 5G modems due to Qualcomm's technology lead, though this is declining as Apple transitions to in-house modems.
Competition
Patent & Technology Licensing (QTL)
$5.5B TTM (13% of Total) · 72% MarginWhat It Is
Licenses to a portfolio of ~335,000 patents covering foundational wireless technologies including CDMA, 4G LTE, and 5G.
Who Pays & How
Virtually every handset manufacturer globally, including Apple and Samsung, pays royalties because it is impossible to build a modern smartphone without using Qualcomm's foundational connectivity patents.
Competition
Automotive & ADAS Processors
$5.3B TTM (13% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Snapdragon Digital Chassis platform, including Snapdragon Ride for ADAS/autonomous driving, Snapdragon Cockpit for infotainment, and Snapdragon Auto Connectivity for 5G/Wi-Fi.
Who Pays & How
Global automakers pay for an integrated hardware and software platform to power in-vehicle infotainment and driver-assistance features. The high cost ($50M+) and long lead time (2-3 years) to switch to a competitor creates significant lock-in once designed into a vehicle platform.
Competition
Internet of Things (IoT) Chips
$6.9B TTM (17% of Total) · 27% MarginWhat It Is
Snapdragon and Qualcomm-branded processors for consumer electronics (e.g., PCs, XR headsets), industrial applications (e.g., robotics, edge AI), and networking.
Who Pays & How
OEMs in consumer, commercial, and industrial markets pay for specialized, power-efficient processors to add connectivity and intelligence to their devices.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.