Tearsheet

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.42 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.42
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 121%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.5x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -33%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 121%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.5x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -33%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSDL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 1% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors during this period:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and NAV Decline: Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reported its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 6, 2025. The company missed analyst consensus estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and total investment income (revenue). Net investment income per share was $0.50, slightly below the estimated $0.5144, and total investment income of $99.7 million fell short of the estimated $100.8 million. This led to an immediate negative market reaction, with shares trading approximately 1.93% lower in after-market activity following the announcement. Additionally, the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share decreased to $20.41 as of September 30, 2025, down from $20.59 at the end of the previous quarter.

2. Increased Debt-to-Equity Ratio: As of September 30, 2025, MSDL's debt-to-equity ratio rose modestly to 1.17x, compared to 1.15x as of June 30, 2025. While this is a slight increase, a higher leverage ratio can sometimes be viewed with caution by investors, especially in a volatile market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSDL Return------10%-10%
Peers Return23%18%-13%10%1%1%42%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSDL Win Rate----45%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%35%56%48%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSDL Max Drawdown------17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-13%-31%-11%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MSDL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)

Better Bets than Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSDL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameMorgan S.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Price17.40163.1616.02116.902.60-17.40
Mkt Cap1.51.10.90.30.1-0.9
Rev LTM17287410015216-152
Op Inc LTM-179-44-8-44
FCF LTM-15570104-35-9--9
FCF 3Y Avg-19012513816-10-16
CFO LTM-15577104-32-9--9
CFO 3Y Avg-19013213817-9-17

Growth & Margins

MSDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameMorgan S.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Rev Chg LTM-25.2%-1.2%-6.2%2.9%-8.5%--6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg60.1%-2.4%159.6%-2.1%13.5%-13.5%
Rev Chg Q-33.5%-4.8%8.2%-2.0%-37.1%--4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-10.1%-1.2%2.1%-0.6%-16.9%--1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-20.5%-28.8%-49.1%-20.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-18.9%-26.5%-74.1%-18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.1%--0.2%-6.5%--0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-90.0%8.9%104.5%-21.2%-55.2%--21.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-117.1%15.6%142.9%11.7%-56.6%-11.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-90.0%8.0%104.5%-23.1%-55.2%--23.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-117.1%14.7%142.9%11.0%-66.7%-11.0%

Valuation

MSDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameMorgan S.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
Mkt Cap1.51.10.90.30.1-0.9
P/S9.51.58.32.53.4-3.4
P/EBIT-3.6-8.72.8-3.6
P/E9.69.49.38.14.3-9.3
P/CFO-10.516.68.0-11.8-6.1--6.1
Total Yield22.4%15.6%21.5%16.6%23.4%-21.5%
Dividend Yield12.0%5.0%10.7%4.3%0.0%-5.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.7%16.7%2.9%-17.7%-5.8%
D/E1.32.01.40.01.1-1.3
Net D/E1.21.60.9-0.1-0.9-0.9

Returns

MSDLVRTSSLRCDHILGEGBLKSMedian
NameMorgan S.Virtus I.SLR Inve.Diamond .Great ElmBlack Un. 
1M Rtn1.9%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.4%-1.9%
3M Rtn-0.2%-14.1%-0.8%-14.0%-15.9%--14.0%
6M Rtn-5.5%-1.2%0.7%-10.1%20.6%--1.2%
12M Rtn-8.3%-30.3%5.6%-24.3%43.6%--8.3%
3Y Rtn--7.0%43.3%-24.8%31.3%-12.1%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%1.8%4.2%-5.3%4.5%-1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-5.6%-21.2%-6.9%-21.0%-18.7%--18.7%
6M Excs Rtn-20.2%-15.9%-14.1%-24.8%5.9%--15.9%
12M Excs Rtn-23.0%-44.0%-8.0%-37.4%29.3%--23.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--75.8%-22.7%-96.4%-43.4%--59.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity629,960
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-18.0%
Average Daily Volume688,161
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity87,189,801
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023301202410-K 12/31/2023
63020239222023DRS/A 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
123120221242024424B1 12/31/2022
630202211032022DRS 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
1231202112162022DRS/A 12/31/2021