Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)
Market Price (9/22/2026): $14.68 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)
Market Price (9/22/2026): $14.68Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 391%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 391% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 154% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -72% Key risksMSDL key risks include [1] a structural vulnerability to falling interest rates, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 391%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 391% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 154% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 17x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -72% |
| Key risksMSDL key risks include [1] a structural vulnerability to falling interest rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results.
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reported net investment income (NII) of $0.45 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, meeting analysts' consensus estimates. However, the company's revenue for the quarter was $59.28 million, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $89.99 million. This divergence in performance, with NII hitting targets but revenue falling short, likely created a balanced market reaction, contributing to the stock's stable price movement.
2. Consistent Dividend Payout.
The company maintained a regular dividend payout, declaring a third-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.45 per share. For a business development company (BDC) like MSDL, a consistent and covered dividend is a critical factor for attracting and retaining income-focused investors, providing a floor for the stock price despite other market dynamics. The dividend was covered at 104% in fiscal Q1 2026.
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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results.
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reported net investment income (NII) of $0.45 per share for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, meeting analysts' consensus estimates. However, the company's revenue for the quarter was $59.28 million, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $89.99 million. This divergence in performance, with NII hitting targets but revenue falling short, likely created a balanced market reaction, contributing to the stock's stable price movement.
2. Consistent Dividend Payout.
The company maintained a regular dividend payout, declaring a third-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.45 per share. For a business development company (BDC) like MSDL, a consistent and covered dividend is a critical factor for attracting and retaining income-focused investors, providing a floor for the stock price despite other market dynamics. The dividend was covered at 104% in fiscal Q1 2026.
3. Neutral Analyst Sentiment and Stable Price Targets.
The consensus analyst rating for MSDL stock remained "Hold" among seven research firms during this period. The average 12-month price target ranged from approximately $15.50 to $15.88, with individual targets falling between $14.00 and $17.00. These price targets are closely aligned with the stock's trading range (e.g., $15.18 as of August 28, 2026, and $15.35 as of August 31, 2026), indicating a lack of strong catalysts for significant upward or downward price deviation.
4. Balanced Macroeconomic Environment for Direct Lending.
While the broader private credit market, including direct lending, has faced increased scrutiny due to global economic uncertainty and rising default rates (Proskauer's Private Credit Default Index recorded 2.51% for fiscal Q2 2026), there were also offsetting positive factors. Morgan Stanley noted that "lender-friendly" terms and wider spreads were creating a stronger foundation for future returns in private credit. This equilibrium of market headwinds and favorable lending conditions likely contributed to MSDL's relative stability during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in MSDL stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.98 | 14.65 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 100 | 72 | -27.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 88.0% | 82.5% | -6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 20.8 | 42.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 86 | 85 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSDL | -2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.5% | 41.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.8% | 41.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.3% change in MSDL stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 110.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.92 | 14.65 | 5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 133 | 72 | -45.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 91.8% | 82.5% | -10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 20.8 | 110.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 87 | 85 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSDL | 5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 45.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.6% | 40.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in MSDL stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.04 | 14.65 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 172 | 72 | -57.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 99.0% | 82.5% | -16.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.2 | 20.8 | 153.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 87 | 85 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSDL | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.2% | 42.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.1% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSDL | ||
| Market (SPY) | 78.3% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 70.5% | 32.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSDL Return | - | - | - | 11% | -11% | -6% | -7% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -10% | 32% | 21% | -7% | -3% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSDL Win Rate | - | - | - | 42% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 80% | 45% | 72% | 72% | 48% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSDL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -21% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -25% | -10% | -11% | -22% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ARCC, OBDC, BXSL, FSK, GBDC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/21/2026 (YTD)
About Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) operates as a business development company (BDC) primarily focused on direct lending to private companies. The company's core business involves originating, underwriting, and managing a diversified portfolio of privately negotiated debt investments. MSDL aims to generate current income for its shareholders by acting as a direct provider of capital to businesses that may be underserved by traditional bank financing or public debt markets.
The main products and services offered by MSDL are various forms of debt financing. This predominantly includes senior secured loans, which are typically collateralized by the assets of the borrowing company and hold a senior position in the capital structure. MSDL provides these loans to support a range of corporate activities, such as growth initiatives, acquisitions, recapitalizations, and general working capital needs.
MSDL's primary customers are middle-market companies, which are generally private, established businesses with significant revenue but are often too small or specialized for large-scale public debt offerings. By serving this market, MSDL provides flexible financing solutions to companies across diverse industries, enabling them to execute strategic plans and foster growth while offering its investors access to private credit opportunities.
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- Direct Loans: Provides customized debt financing solutions directly to privately held, middle-market companies.
- Senior Secured Loans: Primarily invests in first-lien debt, which is secured by the assets of the borrowing company.
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The public company Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) operates as a direct lending fund. Its primary "customers" are other companies to which it provides debt financing. These are typically:
- Private, middle-market companies: These are businesses that are generally too large for venture capital and too small to access traditional public capital markets or large institutional bank loans. They seek capital for purposes such as organic growth, acquisitions, recapitalizations, or leveraged buyouts.
Due to the nature of direct lending and the diversification of its investment portfolio, MSDL does not typically have a few "major customers" in the traditional sense, and its borrowers are generally not publicly traded entities. Therefore, specific names and symbols of individual customer companies are not applicable or publicly disclosed as "major customers." Instead, MSDL generates revenue from interest income across a broad portfolio of these private companies.
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- Morgan Stanley (MS)
- State Street Corporation (STT)
- Deloitte & Touche LLP
- Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP
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Michael Occi, Chief Executive Officer
Michael Occi was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund effective July 25, 2025. He previously served as President from January 1, 2025, and as Chief Administrative Officer from January 2023. Mr. Occi joined Morgan Stanley in 2006 and has been a Managing Director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management since April 2022. His prior roles include leading Financial Institutions Equity Capital Markets and various positions within Equity Capital Markets, Fixed Income Capital Markets, and the Investment Banking Division. He holds a BA in Finance and Accounting from Georgetown University. Mr. Occi is also appointed as President or CEO for several other business development companies that share the same investment adviser.
David Pessah, Chief Financial Officer
David Pessah was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund in December 2023, and also serves as CFO across the broader Morgan Stanley Private Credit BDC complex. He has been a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management since December 2023. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Mr. Pessah held various positions at Goldman Sachs from September 2010 to November 2023, most recently serving as the Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, and Chief Accounting Officer of its private credit BDC complex. He began his career as an auditor at Ernst & Young LLP in September 2007. Mr. Pessah earned a B.S. in Accounting from the University of Delaware and an MBA in Finance from Baruch College.
Ashwin Krishnan, Chief Investment Officer
Ashwin Krishnan was appointed Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund effective July 25, 2025. He is the Head of North America Private Credit and Portfolio Manager of the Opportunistic Credit strategy at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Mr. Krishnan joined Morgan Stanley in 2003 and has over 22 years of experience. He has been a part of the Morgan Stanley Private Credit platform since its inception in 2009 and a member of the investment committee of MS Capital Partners Adviser Inc. since 2019. Previously, he worked in the Communications Investment Banking group at UBS. Mr. Krishnan holds an M.S. in Engineering from Columbia University and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Bangalore University, India.
Orit Mizrachi, Co-President & Chief Operating Officer
Orit Mizrachi was appointed Co-President of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund effective July 25, 2025, and also serves as Chief Operating Officer and Secretary. She is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley.
Jeff Day, Co-President
Jeff Day was appointed Co-President of Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund effective July 25, 2025. He is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley.
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Key Risks to Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)
- Credit Risk and Portfolio Quality: Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) primarily invests in directly originated senior secured term loans of U.S. middle-market companies. These loans are often below investment grade and carry speculative characteristics regarding the borrower's ability to repay interest and principal. Recent reports indicate rising non-accruals, where loans are no longer generating income, and a deterioration in Net Asset Value (NAV), signaling potential issues with the underlying credit quality of the portfolio and increased borrower stress, particularly in an elevated interest rate environment.
- Interest Rate Risk and Dividend Sustainability: With approximately 99.6% of its loans being floating-rate, MSDL's investment income is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. While higher rates can be beneficial, a sustained period of declining interest rates can significantly compress the fund's spreads and reduce its net investment income. This risk has been underscored by recent declines in yields on investments and a reported dividend cut, raising concerns about the fund's ability to cover and sustain its dividend payouts in a lower rate environment.
- Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty: MSDL's financial performance is highly susceptible to broader market volatility and economic uncertainty. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and public health crises can lead to significant market disruptions, affecting the valuation of its investments and the capacity of its portfolio companies to meet their financial obligations. Such unpredictable conditions can impact MSDL's operational framework and overall investment outcomes.
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- U.S. Direct Lending Market: The U.S. direct lending market was approximately $1 trillion in size as of October 2025, a significant increase from around $400 billion in 2019. Total direct lending volume in the U.S. reached $369 billion across 3,533 deals in 2025. The North American direct lending market is estimated to be about $1.5 trillion and is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion by the end of the decade. The U.S. private credit market, more broadly, expanded from $500 billion to $1.3 trillion over the last five years and is anticipated to continue growing in 2026. The U.S. middle-market direct lending sector, which MSDL primarily targets, was estimated at $1.0 trillion as of March 31, 2022.
- European Private Credit Market: The private credit industry in Europe controlled over €1.7 trillion (approximately $1.85 trillion as of current exchange rates) in assets as of January 2026. European private credit assets were roughly $500 billion as of September 2025. Between 2013 and 2023, the AUM in European private credit grew from $93 billion to $505 billion. The European direct lending market is estimated to be between $500 billion and $1 trillion.
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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Ramp-up of Joint Venture: The successful launch and continued scaling of MSDL's joint venture is anticipated to be accretive to its net investment income. The joint venture is already close to 50% ramped, indicating a clear path for further contribution to revenue.
- Rebound in Private Equity Sponsor and M&A Activity: A notable rebound in private equity sponsor activity during the second half of 2025 is creating a structural tailwind for direct lenders such as MSDL. This increasing M&A activity is expected to generate more opportunities for the company's direct lending services.
- Robust Origination and Capital Deployment: MSDL's consistent capability to originate and commit to new, high-quality investments, including new leveraged buyout (LBO) transactions, is a significant driver. The fund committed $146 million to new investments in the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating its ability to expand its loan portfolio.
- Stable Spread Environment and Slowing Yield Compression: While recent interest rate fluctuations have impacted investment income, management expects a "largely stable spread backdrop" and "slowing yield compression" to contribute positively to near-term net investment income. This stability in lending spreads is crucial for maintaining and growing revenue from its predominantly floating-rate loan portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- In January 2024, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund authorized a share repurchase program to acquire up to $100.0 million of its common stock at prices below net asset value.
- The Board authorized an amended and restated share repurchase program on February 27, 2025, with a maximum size of $100.0 million, exclusive of prior repurchases.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company repurchased 491,332 shares at an average price of $20.38 per share. During the fourth quarter of 2025, MSDL repurchased 534,908 shares at an average price of $17.03 per share.
- On February 26, 2026, a new share repurchase program was authorized for up to $100 million over a 24-month period, replacing the 2025 program.
Share Issuance
- Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund priced its initial public offering (IPO) on January 24, 2024, issuing 5,000,000 shares of common stock at $20.67 per share, which generated approximately $97 million in net proceeds.
- On March 28, 2025, the company established an at-the-market (ATM) offering, allowing it to sell shares of common stock with an aggregate offering price of up to $300.0 million.
Outbound Investments
- MSDL's core investment strategy involves making directly originated senior secured term loans to U.S. middle-market companies, with a portfolio value of approximately $3.8 billion across 210 companies as of December 31, 2025.
- In February 2026, the company launched Capstone Lending LLC, a joint venture, committing up to $200 million, with about 47% of this commitment called.
- During the first quarter of 2025, new investment commitments totaled $233.4 million, with $205.6 million in fundings.
Capital Expenditures
- As a direct lending fund, MSDL's operations are not capital expenditure intensive, with its last 12-month capital expenditure reported as $0.0.
- Reported capital expenditures for Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund are negligible or not reported across various periods.
Peer Outperformance in Asset Management & Custody Banks
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 23.3% | 69.0% | 130.6% | SPNT 170% · RGA 149% · RNR 140% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -0.3% | 111.7% | 118.7% | IBKR 535% · SNEX 254% · GS 181% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 29.5% | 134.2% | 114.6% | CM 162% · JPM 156% · RY 149% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 7.1% | 55.5% | 103.2% | JXN 534% · UNM 361% · FG 204% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 4.1% | 48.9% | 84.6% | JONE 362% · VOYA 86% · BRK-B 83% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 7.9% | 66.0% | 66.2% | ASIC 2706900% · HRTG 404% · UVE 317% |
| Regional Banks | 265 | 24.0% | 91.9% | 64.7% | ESQ 367% · GCBC 309% · NBN 309% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 8.4% | 69.4% | 61.1% | GNW 194% · L 107% · SLF 102% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 31.2% | VIRT 185% · CBOE 134% · CME 80% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -6.0% | 23.2% | 30.6% | FRHC 177% · EQH 116% · TMS -55% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | -0.1% | 90.1% | 25.6% | ENVA 427% · EZPW 312% · FCFS 164% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -16.5% | -8.1% | 17.5% | LIFE 217% · ARX 88% · CRD-A 65% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 15 | -46.0% | 25.3% | 12.1% | FNMA 446% · FMCC 415% · ACT 182% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks ← | 85 | -11.3% | 16.4% | 11.7% | WT 351% · VCTR 281% · SII 278% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 11.2% | 42.6% | -5.7% | EFC 26% · CACC -6% · HASI -17% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -12.6% | 7.5% | -20.2% | NREF 55% · RITM 42% · DX 33% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 21 | -33.8% | 16.4% | -36.8% | OPY 204% · LPLA 131% · GOLD 82% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 16 | -0.2% | -6.9% | -45.5% | V 72% · MA 70% · CPAY 55% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 272 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 601 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 138 |
| CFO LTM | 601 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 138 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -49.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -45.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -14.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 390.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 64.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 390.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 64.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $14.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/24/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.18 | $14.90 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -3.5% | -1.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.2% | 21.5% |
| Downside Capture | 71.01 | 89.99 |
| Upside Capture | 61.57 | 66.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.6% | 43.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.57 | 0.70 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.74 | -0.00 |
| Down Beta | -0.45 | 1.66 | 0.78 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.01 |
| Up Capture | 75% | 67% | 75% | 78% | 53% | 14% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 35 | 65 | 118 | 308 |
| Down Capture | -4% | 81% | 72% | 84% | 90% | 76% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 28 | 58 | 128 | 333 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSDL | -6.2% | 21.5% | -0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.9% | 14.6% | 0.10 | 40.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.2% | 13.0% | 1.01 | 43.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 29.3% | 0.59 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.0% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 13.6% | 0.15 | 31.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.0% | 44.4% | -0.71 | 27.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSDL | -1.3% | 22.8% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.9% | 18.4% | 0.40 | 32.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.6% | 0.42 | 16.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSDL | -0.7% | 22.8% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 32.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 16.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -0.1% | 0.8% | -1.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.2% | -1.9% | -2.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | -4.3% | -4.4% | -9.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.0% | 0.6% | 6.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.5% | -2.7% | -0.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.2% | -3.5% | -0.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.1% | -0.0% | 3.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.5% | -1.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.2% | 3.7% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -4.4% | -9.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -0.1% | 0.8% | -1.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.2% | -1.9% | -2.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | -4.3% | -4.4% | -9.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.0% | 0.6% | 6.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.5% | -2.7% | -0.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.2% | -3.5% | -0.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.1% | -0.0% | 3.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| 5/9/2024 | -4.5% | -2.2% | -3.0% |
| 3/1/2024 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 12.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.5% | -1.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.2% | 3.7% | 12.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -4.4% | -9.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 01/24/2024 | 424B1 |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/22/2023 | DRS/A |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/16/2022 | DRS/A |
| 06/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | DRS |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 01/24/2024 | 424B1 |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/22/2023 | DRS/A |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/16/2022 | DRS/A |
| 06/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | DRS |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.45 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.45 for Q2 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.45 | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 0.45 for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.45 | -10.0% | Lower New | Actual: 0.5 for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Dividends | Reported | 0.5 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Actual: 0.5 for Q3 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Day, Jeff M | Co-President | See Footnote. | Buy | 3052026 | 14.89 | 5,000 | 74,475 | 339,874 | Form |
| 2 | Mizrachi, Orit | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.49 | 1,000 | 14,490 | 85,013 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, David N | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.69 | 5,000 | 73,450 | 220,350 | Form | |
| 4 | Miller, David N | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.68 | 5,000 | 73,400 | 146,800 | Form | |
| 5 | Occi, Michael JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.87 | 7,000 | 104,098 | 423,829 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Day, Jeff M | Co-President | See Footnote. | Buy | 3052026 | 14.89 | 5,000 | 74,475 | 339,874 | Form |
| 2 | Mizrachi, Orit | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.49 | 1,000 | 14,490 | 85,013 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, David N | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.69 | 5,000 | 73,450 | 220,350 | Form | |
| 4 | Miller, David N | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.68 | 5,000 | 73,400 | 146,800 | Form | |
| 5 | Occi, Michael JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 14.87 | 7,000 | 104,098 | 423,829 | Form |
| 6 | Krishnan, Ashwin | Chief Investment Officer | Direct | Buy | 12162025 | 16.72 | 3,000 | 50,160 | 50,160 | Form |
| 7 | Frank, Bruce D | Individual Retirement Account | Buy | 11122025 | 16.41 | 600 | 9,843 | 71,969 | Form | |
| 8 | Binstock, Joan | See Footnote. | Buy | 10082025 | 16.64 | 9,030 | 150,229 | 832,534 | Form | |
| 9 | Shannon, Kevin | Direct | Buy | 8182025 | 17.70 | 5,000 | 88,500 | 514,698 | Form | |
| 10 | Pessah, David | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 17.72 | 3,400 | 60,254 | 95,698 | Form |
| 11 | Metz, Adam S | See Footnote. | Buy | 8142025 | 17.67 | 28,248 | 499,122 | 499,122 | Form | |
| 12 | Miller, David N | See Footnote. | Buy | 8142025 | 17.69 | 10,000 | 176,900 | 303,706 | Form | |
| 13 | Day, Jeff M | Co-President | See Footnote. | Buy | 8132025 | 17.70 | 5,650 | 100,005 | 315,379 | Form |
| 14 | Occi, Michael JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 8132025 | 17.78 | 14,000 | 248,851 | 382,165 | Form |
| 15 | Binstock, Joan | See Footnote. | Buy | 8132025 | 17.68 | 5,659 | 100,079 | 694,154 | Form | |
| 16 | Shannon, Kevin | Held by the Kevin F Shannon Irrevocable Trust | Buy | 6102025 | 19.43 | 5,700 | 110,722 | 110,722 | Form | |
| 17 | Shannon, Kevin | Held by Joanne F Shannon Qualified Personal Residence Trust | Buy | 6102025 | 19.44 | 2,300 | 44,711 | 44,711 | Form | |
| 18 | Shannon, Kevin | Held by Kevin Shannon Directed IRA | Buy | 6102025 | 19.43 | 2,000 | 38,860 | 38,860 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 22, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
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| The Banker |
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