Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $34.53 | Market Cap: $453.0 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $34.53Market Cap: $453.0 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 75% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -54% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. | Key risksMSB key risks include [1] its absolute reliance on a single operator, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 75% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 20x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -54% |
| Key risksMSB key risks include [1] its absolute reliance on a single operator, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting the movements of Mesabi Trust (MSB) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Stable to Rising Iron Ore Prices
The price of iron ore, a primary driver of Mesabi Trust's royalty income, remained unexpectedly steady and saw increases throughout Q3 and Q4 2025. Prices reached US$107 per tonne by October 31, 2025, supported by steel mill restocking and infrastructure stimulus. Furthermore, Fitch Ratings revised its 2025 iron ore price forecast upward, anticipating an average of $100 per tonne, reflecting continued healthy global demand.
2. Solid Performance from Operating Company
Cleveland-Cliffs, the parent company of Northshore Mining which operates the lands from which Mesabi Trust receives royalties, reported increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025. This improvement was attributed to strong demand for automotive-grade steel and beneficial tariffs on foreign steel, indicating a robust operating environment for the underlying assets that generate Mesabi Trust's royalties.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSB Return | 30% | 4% | -23% | 16% | 47% | 54% | 172% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 20% | -6% | 6% | -12% | 61% | 119% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSB Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 39% | 58% | 42% | 44% | 47% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSB Max Drawdown | -57% | -15% | -27% | -4% | -19% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -12% | -27% | -15% | -25% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CLF, RGLD, FNV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 576 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 481.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 550 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD
In The Past
Mesabi Trust's stock fell -56.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/20/2021. A -56.3% loss requires a 128.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Mesabi Trust Earnings Notes | ||
| How Low Can Mesabi Trust Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mesabi Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | 294 |
| FCF LTM | -732 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 26 |
| CFO LTM | 312 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 654 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 68.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 60.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 77.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 75.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -31.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.5 |
| P/S | 17.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.0 |
| P/E | 24.9 |
| P/CFO | 20.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 54.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 50.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/10/2025 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 14.4% |
| 7/11/2025 | -1.0% | 3.7% | 21.6% |
| 4/15/2025 | 2.3% | 7.3% | -0.4% |
| 1/14/2025 | 1.0% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| 10/17/2024 | -1.4% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 7/12/2024 | 0.9% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| 4/16/2024 | -0.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.0% | -0.7% | -11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -3.3% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 4.5% | 15.2% | 21.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -11.3% | -28.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12122025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9152025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6122025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4242025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12132024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6132024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4242024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12142023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9132023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6132023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 4242023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12132022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9132022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6132022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4272022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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