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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 30%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 79%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 30%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 79%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Mesabi Trust (MSB) experienced a dynamic period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with several factors influencing its stock performance. The trust's value is significantly tied to the iron ore and steel industries due to its royalty-based income from Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.. Here are the key points highlighting why Mesabi Trust's stock moved during this period: 1. Volatility in Iron Ore Prices: Iron ore prices experienced fluctuations but showed a notable upward trend during parts of the period. After declining significantly from a July 2021 peak, prices rebounded to around $102-$102.05 per ton by August 22, 2025, showing slight gains over the preceding month and year. By December 3, 2025, iron ore had risen to $107.77 USD/T, up 3.11% over the past month. This upward momentum, particularly a nearly 5% growth in August 2025 with futures in Singapore hovering near $104 per ton, marked the first consecutive monthly price advance of 2025, driven by strategic output reductions in major steel production hubs and improving market sentiment despite macroeconomic uncertainties in China. However, some analysts also predicted a potential decline below $US100 next year due to increased supply and potential slowdown in Chinese demand.

2. Increased Mesabi Trust Distributions: Mesabi Trust declared a distribution of $0.56 per Unit of Beneficial Interest payable on May 20, 2025, a significant increase from $0.29 per Unit for the same period the previous year. This higher distribution reflected increased royalty payments of $8,986,464 received from Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. on January 30, 2025, compared to $6,432,434 in January 2024. Subsequently, a dividend of $0.34 was paid on November 20, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of October 30, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSB Return30%4%-23%16%47%43%153%
Peers Return3%52%26%37%3%35%278%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSB Win Rate58%50%33%50%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%58%52%60%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSB Max Drawdown-57%-15%-27%-4%-19%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-12%-17%-8%-15%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-56.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven128.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven211 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven576 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-82.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven481.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven550 days1480 days

Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD


In The Past

Mesabi Trust's stock fell -56.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/20/2021. A -56.3% loss requires a 128.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mesabi Trust (MSB)

Better Bets than Mesabi Trust (MSB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mesabi Trust

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSBHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameMesabi T.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Mkt Price32.4982.9259.4319.59164.71171.5071.17
Mkt Cap0.44.40.60.138.025.22.5
Rev LTM231,22452046530,80617,635872
Op Inc LTM18748112,1431,51933
FCF LTM94-1594811-38531130
FCF 3Y Avg384922253,1151,01844
CFO LTM9420767173,1301,524151
CFO 3Y Avg3847244345,8422,562258

Growth & Margins

MSBHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameMesabi T.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Rev Chg LTM0.2%-23.1%7.6%-5.8%-5.8%-1.5%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.9%-11.8%4.8%8.6%-10.4%-8.0%-1.6%
Rev Chg Q-13.4%0.3%16.0%17.7%4.7%11.2%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.5%0.1%4.2%4.5%1.2%2.8%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM79.0%0.6%9.3%2.4%7.0%8.6%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg79.2%19.3%9.0%2.9%13.9%13.7%13.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%-1.5%0.3%1.8%-0.0%0.5%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM409.8%16.9%13.0%3.7%10.2%8.6%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg172.4%30.4%9.0%6.6%17.0%13.8%15.4%
FCF/Rev LTM409.8%-13.0%9.3%2.5%-1.2%1.8%2.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg172.4%1.9%4.4%4.9%8.7%5.4%5.1%

Valuation

MSBHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameMesabi T.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Mkt Cap0.44.40.60.138.025.22.5
P/S13.72.71.00.21.01.21.1
P/EBIT17.3116.910.68.213.713.813.8
P/E3.495.214.013.523.118.216.1
P/CFO3.316.17.66.79.513.48.6
Total Yield29.5%1.6%7.2%7.7%6.1%6.9%7.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%0.2%1.7%1.4%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.9%2.1%4.9%26.5%7.7%5.6%6.6%
D/E0.00.10.30.30.20.20.2
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.30.30.10.10.1

Returns

MSBHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameMesabi T.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
1M Rtn-5.7%19.3%-7.0%-12.4%11.2%10.0%2.1%
3M Rtn7.3%49.0%15.6%-7.2%13.9%32.8%14.8%
6M Rtn22.9%75.5%49.2%17.0%36.3%28.0%32.1%
12M Rtn50.0%19.5%5.8%24.5%8.2%21.6%20.5%
3Y Rtn134.1%123.3%60.7%124.4%11.6%63.7%93.5%
1M Excs Rtn-5.7%19.4%-6.9%-12.4%11.2%10.0%2.2%
3M Excs Rtn-1.0%45.2%8.5%-12.5%8.8%26.2%8.6%
6M Excs Rtn8.2%60.8%34.5%2.3%21.6%13.3%17.4%
12M Excs Rtn33.3%5.0%-7.5%16.3%-5.2%6.4%5.7%
3Y Excs Rtn45.4%80.6%-10.6%47.3%-56.1%1.5%23.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity100,893
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.1%
Average Daily Volume28,587
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.53
Basic Shares Quantity13,120,010
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025915202510-Q 7/31/2025
4302025612202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025424202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241213202410-Q 10/31/2024
7312024905202410-Q 7/31/2024
4302024613202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024424202410-K 1/31/2024
103120231214202310-Q 10/31/2023
7312023913202310-Q 7/31/2023
4302023613202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023424202310-K 1/31/2023
103120221213202210-Q 10/31/2022
7312022913202210-Q 7/31/2022
4302022613202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022427202210-K 1/31/2022
103120211215202110-Q 10/31/2021