Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.54 | Market Cap: $426.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.54Market Cap: $426.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 79% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 30%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 30% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 79% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 410% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust (MSB) experienced a dynamic period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with several factors influencing its stock performance. The trust's value is significantly tied to the iron ore and steel industries due to its royalty-based income from Cleveland-Cliffs Inc..
Here are the key points highlighting why Mesabi Trust's stock moved during this period:
1. Volatility in Iron Ore Prices: Iron ore prices experienced fluctuations but showed a notable upward trend during parts of the period. After declining significantly from a July 2021 peak, prices rebounded to around $102-$102.05 per ton by August 22, 2025, showing slight gains over the preceding month and year. By December 3, 2025, iron ore had risen to $107.77 USD/T, up 3.11% over the past month. This upward momentum, particularly a nearly 5% growth in August 2025 with futures in Singapore hovering near $104 per ton, marked the first consecutive monthly price advance of 2025, driven by strategic output reductions in major steel production hubs and improving market sentiment despite macroeconomic uncertainties in China. However, some analysts also predicted a potential decline below $US100 next year due to increased supply and potential slowdown in Chinese demand.
2. Increased Mesabi Trust Distributions: Mesabi Trust declared a distribution of $0.56 per Unit of Beneficial Interest payable on May 20, 2025, a significant increase from $0.29 per Unit for the same period the previous year. This higher distribution reflected increased royalty payments of $8,986,464 received from Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. on January 30, 2025, compared to $6,432,434 in January 2024. Subsequently, a dividend of $0.34 was paid on November 20, 2025, with an ex-dividend date of October 30, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSB Return | 30% | 4% | -23% | 16% | 47% | 43% | 153% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 52% | 26% | 37% | 3% | 35% | 278% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSB Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 52% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSB Max Drawdown | -57% | -15% | -27% | -4% | -19% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -12% | -17% | -8% | -15% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 576 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 481.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 550 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD
In The Past
Mesabi Trust's stock fell -56.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/20/2021. A -56.3% loss requires a 128.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Mesabi Trust Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mesabi Trust
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 872 |
| Op Inc LTM | 33 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 44 |
| CFO LTM | 151 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 258 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 16.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9152025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6122025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4242025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12132024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6132024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4242024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12142023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9132023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6132023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 4242023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12132022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9132022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6132022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 4272022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12152021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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