Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (9/9/2026): $23.47 | Market Cap: $307.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Market Price (9/9/2026): $23.47Market Cap: $307.9 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 5.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 76% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -52% Key risksMSB key risks include [1] its absolute reliance on a single operator, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 5.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 76% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 90% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Industrial Commodities, and Sustainable Infrastructure Materials. Themes include Iron Ore Supply, and Steel Production Inputs. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -52% |
| Key risksMSB key risks include [1] its absolute reliance on a single operator, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/1/2026
Mesabi Trust (MSB) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Substantial Decrease in Royalty Payments and Elimination of Bonus Royalties.
Mesabi Trust experienced a significant reduction in its royalty income, notably receiving zero bonus royalty for fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar quarter ended March 31, 2026) due to deemed shipments falling below the $71.70 per ton bonus royalty threshold. This directly led to a reduced distribution of $0.05 per unit declared on July 14, 2026, a substantial drop from $0.24 in the preceding fiscal quarter (payable May 20, 2026) and $0.56 in the prior year's comparable period. The Trust's total royalty payments for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026) were $1.81 million.
2. Negative Outlook and Pressure on Global Iron Ore Prices.
The Trust's income is inherently linked to iron ore prices, which faced downward pressure during the specified period. Analysts forecast a continued decline in global iron ore prices, with projections of a 3% decrease in 2026 and a further 2% in 2027, reaching approximately $97 and $95 per tonne, respectively. This trend is driven by weak demand growth, particularly from China due to limited steel production expansion and high port inventories, coupled with increasing global mine supply. While iron ore prices rose to $99.33 USD/T on September 1, 2026, they were still 3.12% lower than a year ago.
Show more
Mesabi Trust (MSB) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Substantial Decrease in Royalty Payments and Elimination of Bonus Royalties.
Mesabi Trust experienced a significant reduction in its royalty income, notably receiving zero bonus royalty for fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar quarter ended March 31, 2026) due to deemed shipments falling below the $71.70 per ton bonus royalty threshold. This directly led to a reduced distribution of $0.05 per unit declared on July 14, 2026, a substantial drop from $0.24 in the preceding fiscal quarter (payable May 20, 2026) and $0.56 in the prior year's comparable period. The Trust's total royalty payments for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026) were $1.81 million.
2. Negative Outlook and Pressure on Global Iron Ore Prices.
The Trust's income is inherently linked to iron ore prices, which faced downward pressure during the specified period. Analysts forecast a continued decline in global iron ore prices, with projections of a 3% decrease in 2026 and a further 2% in 2027, reaching approximately $97 and $95 per tonne, respectively. This trend is driven by weak demand growth, particularly from China due to limited steel production expansion and high port inventories, coupled with increasing global mine supply. While iron ore prices rose to $99.33 USD/T on September 1, 2026, they were still 3.12% lower than a year ago.
Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026
Mesabi Trust (MSB) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Substantial Decrease in Royalty Payments and Elimination of Bonus Royalties.
Mesabi Trust experienced a significant reduction in its royalty income, notably receiving zero bonus royalty for fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar quarter ended March 31, 2026) due to deemed shipments falling below the $71.70 per ton bonus royalty threshold. This directly led to a reduced distribution of $0.05 per unit declared on July 14, 2026, a substantial drop from $0.24 in the preceding fiscal quarter (payable May 20, 2026) and $0.56 in the prior year's comparable period. The Trust's total royalty payments for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026) were $1.81 million.
2. Negative Outlook and Pressure on Global Iron Ore Prices.
The Trust's income is inherently linked to iron ore prices, which faced downward pressure during the specified period. Analysts forecast a continued decline in global iron ore prices, with projections of a 3% decrease in 2026 and a further 2% in 2027, reaching approximately $97 and $95 per tonne, respectively. This trend is driven by weak demand growth, particularly from China due to limited steel production expansion and high port inventories, coupled with increasing global mine supply. While iron ore prices rose to $99.33 USD/T on September 1, 2026, they were still 3.12% lower than a year ago.
3. Ongoing Arbitration Proceedings with Operator.
Mesabi Trust is engaged in ongoing arbitration with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Northshore Mining Company, concerning alleged underpayment of royalties on intercompany shipments from 2023 onward and issues related to the idling of Northshore's operations from May 2022 to April 2023. These legal disputes introduce uncertainty regarding future royalty calculations and potential financial liabilities, contributing to investor caution.
Show less
Mesabi Trust (MSB) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Substantial Decrease in Royalty Payments and Elimination of Bonus Royalties.
Mesabi Trust experienced a significant reduction in its royalty income, notably receiving zero bonus royalty for fiscal Q1 2026 (calendar quarter ended March 31, 2026) due to deemed shipments falling below the $71.70 per ton bonus royalty threshold. This directly led to a reduced distribution of $0.05 per unit declared on July 14, 2026, a substantial drop from $0.24 in the preceding fiscal quarter (payable May 20, 2026) and $0.56 in the prior year's comparable period. The Trust's total royalty payments for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026) were $1.81 million.
2. Negative Outlook and Pressure on Global Iron Ore Prices.
The Trust's income is inherently linked to iron ore prices, which faced downward pressure during the specified period. Analysts forecast a continued decline in global iron ore prices, with projections of a 3% decrease in 2026 and a further 2% in 2027, reaching approximately $97 and $95 per tonne, respectively. This trend is driven by weak demand growth, particularly from China due to limited steel production expansion and high port inventories, coupled with increasing global mine supply. While iron ore prices rose to $99.33 USD/T on September 1, 2026, they were still 3.12% lower than a year ago.
3. Ongoing Arbitration Proceedings with Operator.
Mesabi Trust is engaged in ongoing arbitration with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and Northshore Mining Company, concerning alleged underpayment of royalties on intercompany shipments from 2023 onward and issues related to the idling of Northshore's operations from May 2022 to April 2023. These legal disputes introduce uncertainty regarding future royalty calculations and potential financial liabilities, contributing to investor caution.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.8% change in MSB stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.32 | 23.49 | -10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17 | 14 | -13.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 83.7% | 79.2% | -5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.9 | 27.2 | 9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSB | -10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.3% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 1.5% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.8% change in MSB stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.03 | 23.49 | -21.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19 | 14 | -24.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 90.6% | 79.2% | -12.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.9 | 27.2 | 18.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSB | -21.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 13.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | -2.3% | 29.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.7% change in MSB stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.02 | 23.49 | -21.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24 | 14 | -39.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 392.6% | 79.2% | -79.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.2 | 27.2 | 545.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSB | -21.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.8% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.2% | 29.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 77.5% change in MSB stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.24 | 23.49 | 77.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | -5 | 14 | -386.7% |
| P/S Multiple | -34.8 | 21.6 | -161.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MSB | 77.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.3% | 24.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSB Return | 4% | -23% | 16% | 47% | 72% | -37% | 48% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -6% | 6% | -12% | 63% | 14% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSB Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 22% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 44% | 47% | 69% | 59% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSB Max Drawdown | -41% | -46% | -38% | -21% | -29% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -46% | -34% | -31% | -29% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CLF, RGLD, FNV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 477 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Mesabi Trust's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MSB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 477 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 300.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -82.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 469.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 379 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 346 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Mesabi Trust's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mesabi Trust (MSB)
Mesabi Trust (MSB) operates as a royalty trust, meaning it doesn't directly engage in the day-to-day operations of mining. Instead, it holds a passive beneficial interest that entitles its unitholders to receive income distributions derived from iron ore mining activities in the United States. This structure allows investors to participate in the economics of iron ore production without the operational risks associated with direct mining.
The company's main "product" from an investor perspective is the regular distribution of royalty payments, which are fundamentally tied to the volume and price of iron ore extracted and sold by the operating company from the Mesabi Range in Minnesota. This iron ore serves as a critical raw material for the steel industry, primarily within the United States. Therefore, while Mesabi Trust's direct beneficiaries are its unitholders, its financial performance is ultimately driven by the demand for iron ore from domestic steel manufacturers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Mesabi Trust (MSB):
- The Dolby Laboratories of iron ore mineral rights. (Like Dolby licenses its audio technology, Mesabi Trust collects royalties from the use of its iron ore mineral rights.)
- A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) for iron ore deposits. (Similar to how a REIT owns income-generating properties and distributes rent, Mesabi Trust owns iron ore deposits and distributes royalties.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Products of Mesabi Trust (MSB)
- Iron Ore Royalties: Mesabi Trust's primary source of income is royalties derived from the extraction and sale of iron ore from mineral leases in the United States.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust (MSB), as a royalty trust, generates its revenue from royalties paid by the entity that operates the iron ore mines on its properties. Therefore, its primary "customer" is the mining company responsible for these operations and royalty payments.
The major customer for Mesabi Trust is:
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF)
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates the iron ore mines through its subsidiary, Northshore Mining Company, which is responsible for making royalty payments to Mesabi Trust based on the iron ore extracted.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust is a royalty trust and operates differently from a traditional public company, without a conventional management team including a CEO or CFO in the typical sense. Its activities are limited to collecting income, paying expenses, and distributing net income to unitholders, and it explicitly states it has no employees or executive officers. Administrative functions are performed by a Corporate Trustee, which has been identified as Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas. The Trust is overseen by individual Trustees.
Here are the individuals serving as Trustees for Mesabi Trust:
James A. Ehrenberg
Trustee
Mr. Ehrenberg serves as a Trustee for Mesabi Trust.
Michael P. Mlinar
Trustee
Mr. Mlinar serves as a Trustee for Mesabi Trust.
Robert C. Berglund
Trustee
Mr. Berglund serves as a Trustee for Mesabi Trust.
Robin M. Radke
Trustee
Ms. Radke serves as a Trustee for Mesabi Trust.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Mesabi Trust's business:
* Dependence on Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and the Peter Mitchell Mine: Mesabi Trust operates as a passive royalty trust, meaning its income is derived solely from royalties paid by Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (through its subsidiary, Northshore Mining Company) for iron ore extracted from the Peter Mitchell Mine in Minnesota. This creates a significant dependency on Cliffs' operational decisions, including if, when, and how much ore to extract, as well as the potential for idling the mine or blending ore from non-trust lands, which can directly reduce royalties paid to Mesabi Trust. The trust has no control over these mining and production decisions.
* Volatility of Iron Ore Prices and Demand: The royalty income of Mesabi Trust is highly susceptible to the volatile iron ore market and broader macroeconomic cycles, particularly the demand for steel driven by manufacturing in the United States and China. Fluctuations in iron ore prices directly impact royalty payments and, consequently, the distributions to unitholders. Weak demand can lead to production halts by Cleveland-Cliffs and subsequently reduced or suspended distributions from the Trust.
* Regulatory and Legal Risks: Mesabi Trust faces risks associated with regulatory decisions, such as the ongoing efforts to expand Northshore Mining's Mile Post 7 tailings basin. If this expansion is not approved or is prohibited, it could lead to operational shutdowns at the mine. Additionally, the Trust has experienced legal disputes and arbitration cases in the past regarding royalty calculations and alleged underpayments by Cleveland-Cliffs, indicating a recurring risk of litigation over royalty agreements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global transition towards "green steel" production methods, which aim to decarbonize steelmaking using technologies like hydrogen-based direct reduction, could significantly reduce the long-term demand for conventionally produced iron ore used in traditional blast furnaces, thereby impacting the underlying operations that generate Mesabi Trust's royalties. This represents a fundamental shift in the steel industry, the primary consumer of iron ore.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust (MSB) is a royalty trust that derives its income from an iron mine in the United States, specifically the Peter Mitchell Mine in Minnesota. The primary product underlying their royalty payments is iron ore, mainly in the form of iron ore pellets, which are mined and shipped by Northshore Mining Company, a subsidiary of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
The addressable market for Mesabi Trust's main product, iron ore, is the U.S. iron ore market. The market size for iron ore in the United States has several projections and estimates:
- The U.S. iron ore market generated an estimated revenue of USD 4,205.9 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 5,024.7 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2025 to 2030.
- Another estimate for the Iron Ore Mining market size in the U.S. was approximately $5.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to be $5.3 billion in 2025.
- The United States produced iron ore with an estimated value of $7.5 billion in 2023.
- Looking further ahead, the iron ore market size in the U.S. is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 18.36 billion by 2032. Another projection indicates the U.S. iron ore market could reach an estimated value of US$ 149.2 billion by 2032.
All market sizes provided are for the United States region.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust (MSB), as a royalty trust, derives its revenue primarily from the production volume and sale price of iron ore pellets from the Peter Mitchell Mine, operated by Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.'s (CCI) subsidiary, Northshore Mining Company. Over the next 2-3 years, the key drivers of future revenue growth for Mesabi Trust are expected to include:
- Favorable Iron Ore Price Forecasts: Recent upward revisions in iron ore price forecasts by agencies such as Fitch Ratings are expected to directly impact Mesabi Trust's royalty income. For example, Fitch has raised its 2026 iron ore price forecast to $95/metric ton (mt) from $90/mt, its 2027 forecast to $85/mt from $75/mt, and its 2028 forecast to $80/mt from $70/mt. This positive outlook on commodity prices is a significant driver for increased royalty payments.
- Increased Iron Ore Pellet Production by Northshore Mining: While Mesabi Trust's revenue is tied to the output of Northshore Mining, Cleveland-Cliffs' overall steel shipment outlook for 2026 is projected to be between 16.5 and 17.0 million net tons, an increase from 16.2 million net tons in 2025. A "volume recovery" in the mining operations, as suggested by some analyses, coupled with sustained operational efficiency by Cleveland-Cliffs, could lead to higher volumes of iron ore pellets being produced and shipped, thereby increasing royalty payments to the Trust.
- Resolution of Royalty Calculation Disputes: A new arbitration case is anticipated to address disputed royalty calculations, which have reportedly led to suppressed royalty income for Mesabi Trust in the past. A favorable resolution in this or similar ongoing disputes could significantly restore and potentially double Mesabi Trust's distributions, providing a substantial boost to its revenue.
- Sustained or Increased Demand for Steel: The demand for iron ore, from which Mesabi Trust derives its royalties, is intrinsically linked to the demand for steel. A robust industrial economy and strong demand from key sectors, particularly the North American automotive sector, directly influence the demand for iron ore and, consequently, Mesabi Trust's revenues.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mesabi Trust (MSB) operates as a royalty trust, primarily collecting and distributing income from iron ore mining royalties. Its operational structure dictates that it does not engage in many typical capital allocation activities of an operating company.
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
No information available. Existing data indicates "Buyback Yield" as "n/a", suggesting no share repurchases have been made or authorized.Share Issuance
No information available. The trust has approximately 13.12 million shares outstanding, with no recent indications of share issuance for capital raising.Inbound Investments
No information available regarding large investments made in the company by third-parties such as strategic partners or private equity firms. The company's revenue primarily derives from royalty income.Outbound Investments
No information available. As a royalty trust, Mesabi Trust does not make strategic investments in other companies.Capital Expenditures
Mesabi Trust reports no capital expenditures (CapEx). As a pure royalty trust, it has no employees, no debt, and does not incur capital expenditures.Peer Outperformance in Steel
MSB has trailed 83% of its 12 Steel peers over 5Y. Steel ranks 4th of 15 industries in Materials by median 5Y return.
Share of Steel constituents that MSB has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
13%
of 15 industry peers · -22.6% return
3Y
62%
of 13 industry peers · 66.7% return
5Y
17%
of 12 industry peers · 19.6% return
No Steel peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten MSB by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Materials sector, ranked by 5Y. Steel is MSB's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 106.4% | 103.0% | 327.2% | COPR 1093% · HBM 397% · TGB 376% |
| Silver | 6 | 135.6% | 367.9% | 173.1% | AYA 268% · HL 242% · SVM 207% |
| Gold | 34 | 34.3% | 206.6% | 152.4% | IAG 798% · CNL 604% · OGC 491% |
| Steel ← | 13 | 27.7% | 58.3% | 145.3% | AMR 360% · HCC 354% · NWPX 318% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 120.7% | 153.3% | 65.9% | CENX 285% · KALU 66% · AA 15% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -18.7% | 21.8% | 48.4% | USLM 333% · CRH 89% · VMC 53% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 24 | -5.7% | -7.2% | 37.5% | ATLX 232043% · USAR 59162% · TII 796% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | -8.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | KRT 168% · MYE 73% · GEF 52% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 6.9% | 13.0% | -6.1% | PKG 77% · CCK 12% · SON -5% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 8.5% | 1.8% | -11.8% | ODC 460% · NEU 181% · ESI 78% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 23.0% | -13.4% | -22.4% | HWKN 278% · LXU 81% · MEOH 67% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 42.2% | 191.8% | -25.2% | ASM 644% · PPTA 385% · MTA 40% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -0.7% | -26.0% | -28.3% | CBT 72% · ASH -14% · CC -42% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -2.4% | -0.2% | -30.2% | CF 229% · CTVA 108% · NTR 53% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -18.5% | -52.2% | -96.0% | CLW -40% · ITP -96% · MERC -96% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Mesabi Trust Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Mesabi Trust Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 142.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 493 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 93 |
| CFO LTM | 529 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 505 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 38.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 34.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 69.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 45.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 69.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 64.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 72.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 75.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.49 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -41.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.71 | $29.27 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.9% | -19.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.6% | 46.1% |
| Downside Capture | -6.77 | 115.41 |
| Upside Capture | -12.28 | 62.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -4.6% | 24.4% |
MSB Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.57 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.94 | 0.72 |
| Up Beta | 0.87 | 0.66 | -0.08 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| Down Beta | 3.30 | 0.21 | 1.05 | 0.66 | 1.55 | 0.86 |
| Up Capture | 87% | -22% | -3% | 21% | 63% | 63% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 66 | 128 | 386 |
| Down Capture | -143% | 19% | 36% | 90% | 114% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 29 | 60 | 121 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSB | -22.6% | 46.0% | -0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.61 | 29.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.4% | 12.8% | 1.11 | 24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 29.2% | 0.65 | 13.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.0% | 20.4% | 1.72 | -5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.8% | 13.6% | 0.30 | 12.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.9% | -0.63 | 27.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSB | 3.5% | 49.2% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.9% | 19.1% | 0.20 | 25.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.5% | 0.42 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 14.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.1% | 52.6% | 0.39 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MSB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSB | 19.9% | 48.3% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.0% | 20.7% | 0.43 | 38.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 34.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.3% | 0.61 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 22.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 10.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/14/2026 | -1.5% | -12.7% | -8.3% |
| 5/4/2026 | 1.7% | 5.6% | -7.5% |
| 1/16/2026 | -12.9% | -16.7% | -18.2% |
| 10/10/2025 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 14.4% |
| 7/11/2025 | -1.0% | 3.7% | 21.6% |
| 5/2/2025 | -0.7% | -10.7% | -4.0% |
| 1/14/2025 | 1.0% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| 10/17/2024 | -1.4% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 4.5% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -2.7% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.5% | 15.2% | 21.7% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -16.7% | -28.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/14/2026 | -1.5% | -12.7% | -8.3% |
| 5/4/2026 | 1.7% | 5.6% | -7.5% |
| 1/16/2026 | -12.9% | -16.7% | -18.2% |
| 10/10/2025 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 14.4% |
| 7/11/2025 | -1.0% | 3.7% | 21.6% |
| 5/2/2025 | -0.7% | -10.7% | -4.0% |
| 1/14/2025 | 1.0% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| 10/17/2024 | -1.4% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 7/12/2024 | 0.9% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.1% | -1.0% | 9.9% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.0% | -0.7% | -11.9% |
| 10/13/2023 | -0.7% | -2.7% | -11.1% |
| 7/14/2023 | -3.4% | -3.4% | 1.6% |
| 4/14/2023 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -25.7% |
| 1/12/2023 | -4.5% | -1.5% | 9.8% |
| 10/14/2022 | -8.9% | -3.5% | 2.2% |
| 7/15/2022 | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.3% | -2.4% | 21.7% |
| 1/11/2022 | 3.5% | 7.8% | 1.3% |
| 10/8/2021 | 4.5% | 4.5% | -28.0% |
| 7/12/2021 | -1.9% | -11.3% | -7.5% |
| 5/3/2021 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% |
| 1/11/2021 | -0.1% | -1.1% | -0.0% |
| 10/9/2020 | 0.4% | 4.5% | -2.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 4.5% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -2.7% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.5% | 15.2% | 21.7% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -16.7% | -28.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 04/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/10/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 9, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Steel Resources |
| SteelOrbis |
| World Steel Association |
| Kallanish Commodities |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/8/2026