Tearsheet

Millrose Properties (MRP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $29.74 | Market Cap: $4.9 Bil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Single-Family Residential REITs

Millrose Properties (MRP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $29.74
Market Cap: $4.9 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Single-Family Residential REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 63%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -225%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -434%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74%
Key risks
MRP key risks include [1] an extreme customer concentration with homebuilder Lennar under unfavorable agreement terms, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Data Center REITs, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 63%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -74%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Data Center REITs, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -225%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -434%
6 Key risks
MRP key risks include [1] an extreme customer concentration with homebuilder Lennar under unfavorable agreement terms, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MRP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to today (December 18, 2025) is in the future. As such, there is no historical data available to explain a -13.8% stock movement for Millrose Properties (MRP) during this specific future period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MRP Return
Peers Return17%45%-26%59%-6%-5%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MRP Win Rate60% 
Peers Win Rate62%70%35%58%52%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MRP Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-5%-41%-3%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FOR, INVH, AMH, DHI, LEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MRP has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days

Compare to


In The Past

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Millrose Properties (MRP)

Better Bets than Millrose Properties (MRP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MRP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Millrose Properties

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MRPFORINVHAMHDHILENMedian
NameMillrose.Forestar Invitati.American.D.R. Hor.Lennar  
Mkt Price29.7826.6227.3632.02152.00112.2330.90
Mkt Cap4.91.416.811.945.028.714.3
Rev LTM4111,6622,6751,83234,25034,7662,254
Op Inc LTM2602097474554,4243,470601
FCF LTM-1,783-1998986863,284-713244
FCF 3Y Avg-18926493,1542,783892
CFO LTM-924-1981,1298213,421-568312
CFO 3Y Avg-31,1147793,3052,9181,114

Growth & Margins

MRPFORINVHAMHDHILENMedian
NameMillrose.Forestar Invitati.American.D.R. Hor.Lennar  
Rev Chg LTM-10.1%5.3%7.7%-6.9%-4.7%5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.3%8.1%8.2%0.9%3.0%3.3%
Rev Chg Q-21.6%4.3%7.5%-3.2%-6.4%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM77.4%7.7%1.1%1.9%-0.9%-1.7%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM63.2%12.6%27.9%24.8%12.9%10.0%18.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.3%28.5%23.6%15.4%13.6%15.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM44.6%-0.5%-0.2%0.3%-1.2%-1.5%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-224.8%-11.9%42.2%44.8%10.0%-1.6%4.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.0%44.3%45.6%9.4%8.4%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-433.8%-12.0%33.6%37.5%9.6%-2.1%3.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%35.5%37.9%8.9%8.0%8.9%

Valuation

MRPFORINVHAMHDHILENMedian
NameMillrose.Forestar Invitati.American.D.R. Hor.Lennar  
Mkt Cap4.91.416.811.945.028.714.3
P/S13.60.86.76.71.30.94.0
P/EBIT21.26.519.917.710.29.313.9
P/E29.18.133.027.312.512.019.9
P/CFO-6.0-6.915.915.013.1-56.73.6
Total Yield5.5%12.4%6.9%7.2%9.1%10.0%8.1%
Dividend Yield2.1%0.0%3.9%3.5%1.1%1.6%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%4.6%5.0%7.1%7.3%5.0%
D/E0.40.60.50.40.10.20.4
Net D/E0.30.30.50.40.10.10.3

Returns

MRPFORINVHAMHDHILENMedian
NameMillrose.Forestar Invitati.American.D.R. Hor.Lennar  
1M Rtn0.9%14.1%-2.4%1.3%10.3%-1.6%1.1%
3M Rtn-10.9%-0.6%-6.8%-2.8%-10.3%-15.2%-8.5%
6M Rtn10.6%37.4%-17.4%-10.7%26.0%9.5%10.0%
12M Rtn--1.4%-12.4%-10.1%4.8%-24.6%-10.1%
3Y Rtn-72.1%-0.5%13.5%75.1%27.1%27.1%
1M Excs Rtn0.2%13.3%-3.2%0.6%9.6%-2.4%0.4%
3M Excs Rtn-13.4%-3.0%-8.7%-4.5%-11.5%-16.5%-10.1%
6M Excs Rtn-1.8%25.0%-29.8%-23.1%13.7%-2.9%-2.4%
12M Excs Rtn--15.5%-25.3%-22.3%-8.5%-37.1%-22.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.7%-71.4%-59.9%13.1%-36.8%-36.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,859,852
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202573.8%
Average Daily Volume4,823,108
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.25
Basic Shares Quantity166,003,497
Short % of Basic Shares6.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/9/2025-0.9%-1.9%-4.5%
7/31/2025-1.8%3.6%16.2%
5/14/20254.4%7.4%2.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive122
# Negative211
Median Positive4.4%5.5%9.4%
Median Negative-1.4%-1.9%-4.5%
Max Positive4.4%7.4%16.2%
Max Negative-1.8%-1.9%-4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
630202410282024DRS/A 6/30/2024
123120231172025424B1 12/31/2023