McGraw Hill (MH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.63 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
McGraw Hill (MH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.63Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksMH key risks include [1] disruption to its digital strategy from evolving educational technology and artificial intelligence and [2] dependence on educational institution budgets and enrollment trends. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksMH key risks include [1] disruption to its digital strategy from evolving educational technology and artificial intelligence and [2] dependence on educational institution budgets and enrollment trends. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why McGraw Hill (symbol: MH) stock moved by 14.8% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Post-Initial Public Offering (IPO) Volatility: As a company that went public in July 2025, McGraw Hill's stock experienced significant volatility as the market worked to establish its valuation. This often leads to considerable price swings, with the stock reaching an all-time low of $10.70 on November 5, 2025, and an all-time high of $18.00 on November 25, 2025, reflecting periods of both substantial gains and declines.
2. Strong Earnings Performance: The company reported robust earnings in the quarter leading up to August 21, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 against an estimation of $0.39, representing a 261.49% surprise. This strong performance likely generated positive investor sentiment that influenced the stock price at the beginning of the specified period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MH Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -19% | 24% | -27% | -11% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MH Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 52% | 48% | 60% | 44% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MH Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -38% | -26% | -52% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LRN, COUR, SCHL, CHGG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MH has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for McGraw Hill
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,614 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16 |
| FCF LTM | 103 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 84 |
| CFO LTM | 122 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 146 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.1 |
| P/E | -29.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | -2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -30.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -25.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -27.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -97.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-12 | 905 | 958 | 791 | 584 | 594 |
| Higher Education | 702 | 654 | 664 | 649 | 629 |
| International | 200 | 188 | 186 | 169 | 203 |
| Global Professional | 153 | 148 | 148 | 142 | 157 |
| Other | -0 | -0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Total | 1,960 | 1,948 | 1,790 | 1,545 | 1,585 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-12 | 291 | 304 | |||
| Higher Education | 290 | 245 | |||
| Global Professional | 43 | 39 | |||
| International | 31 | 24 | |||
| Other | 1 | 6 | |||
| Transaction and integration costs | -8 | -7 | |||
| Advisory fees | -10 | ||||
| Adjusted EBITDA - other | -17 | ||||
| Purchase accounting | -18 | -47 | |||
| Restructuring and cost savings implementation charges | -33 | -21 | |||
| Impairment charge | -50 | -312 | |||
| Depreciation, amortization and product development amortization | -366 | -372 | |||
| Integration costs | -31 | ||||
| Sponsor fees | -10 | ||||
| Total | 155 | -180 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 23.9% | 42.8% | 50.8% |
| 8/14/2025 | -5.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 23.9% | 25.2% | 27.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | ||
| Max Positive | 23.9% | 42.8% | 50.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 7242025 | 424B4 3/31/2025 |
| 3312024 | 3132025 | DRS/A 3/31/2024 |
| 3312023 | 9132023 | DRS/A 3/31/2023 |
| 9302022 | 12222022 | DRS/A 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 11042022 | DRS 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 3082023 | DRS/A 3/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |