McGraw Hill (MH)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $16.66 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
McGraw Hill (MH)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $16.66Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% | |
| Key risksMH key risks include [1] disruption to its digital strategy from evolving educational technology and artificial intelligence and [2] dependence on educational institution budgets and enrollment trends. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksMH key risks include [1] disruption to its digital strategy from evolving educational technology and artificial intelligence and [2] dependence on educational institution budgets and enrollment trends. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Post-IPO Volatility and Market Adjustment: McGraw Hill became a publicly traded company on July 24, 2025, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of $17.00 per share. The period following an IPO often sees substantial stock price fluctuations as the market works to determine the company's valuation, especially after the IPO priced below its initial estimated range. This post-IPO environment likely contributed to the stock's movement, including reaching a 52-week low of $10.70 on November 5, 2025, and an all-time high of $18.00 on November 25, 2025.
2. Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release: The company's announcement and webcast of its Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 results on November 12, 2025, served as a significant catalyst for stock movement. Earnings reports often lead to sharp reactions in stock prices, influencing the notable decline to its all-time low shortly before the announcement and its subsequent robust recovery to its all-time high later in November.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.6% change in MH stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 12.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.75 | 16.99 | 23.56% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1842.34 | 2029.82 | 10.18% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.43 | 1.60 | 12.15% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 191.00 | 191.00 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.56% |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MH | 23.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 6.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.8% | 4.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 11.9% | 8.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.0% | 8.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 38.6% | 8.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MH Return | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MH Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MH Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MH has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe McGraw Hill:
- Netflix for academic subjects and digital courses.
- Spotify for educational textbooks and learning tools.
- The Disney of educational content.
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- K-12 Learning Solutions: Provides comprehensive digital and print instructional materials, curriculum, and assessment tools for elementary and secondary education.
- Higher Education Learning Solutions: Offers digital textbooks, adaptive learning platforms, and courseware designed for college and university students and instructors.
- Professional Resources: Publishes specialized content and digital tools for professionals in fields such as business, engineering, and healthcare, aiding in skill development and certification.
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Major Customers of McGraw Hill (Symbol: MH)
McGraw Hill (symbol: MH) is a prominent educational content, software, and services company. While it engages extensively with educational institutions (K-12 school districts, colleges, and universities) for the adoption and licensing of its materials, the ultimate purchases are frequently made by individuals, or the institutions facilitate individual access.
Due to the nature of selling to a vast number of educational institutions rather than a few named corporate clients, and the company's current status as a private entity (it was formerly public under the MH symbol), specific "customer companies" cannot be listed. Instead, McGraw Hill primarily serves the following categories of individual customers:
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1. K-12 Students and Educators
This category includes students in elementary, middle, and high schools who utilize McGraw Hill's textbooks, digital curricula, and assessment tools. Educators in these schools are crucial decision-makers in the adoption process, influencing the materials purchased for their students.
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2. Higher Education Students and Instructors
This segment comprises students enrolled in colleges, universities, and community colleges who purchase or are required to use McGraw Hill's textbooks, e-books, and digital learning platforms (e.g., Connect, ALEKS). University and college instructors play a significant role in adopting these materials for their courses, thereby driving student purchases.
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3. Professionals
McGraw Hill also serves individuals in various professional fields (e.g., medical, business, engineering) who seek materials for continuing education, skill development, certification, or reference. While a smaller segment compared to its core educational markets, this category represents a direct-to-individual sales channel.
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Simon Allen, Chief Executive Officer
Simon Allen was named CEO of McGraw Hill in October 2019, after serving as Interim CEO since October 2019, and currently serves as Chairman of the board of directors. He previously served as President of McGraw Hill's Higher Education and International business units, rejoining the company in March 2018. Before rejoining McGraw Hill, Allen was the CEO of Macmillan Education, where he led the company's transition from print to blended learning products and solutions. He also held roles as Senior Vice President, International at The McGraw-Hill Companies, and President, Higher Education at both Pearson Education EMEA and Prentice Hall Europe. During his first year as CEO, McGraw Hill was sold by one private equity company and acquired by another. He joined Platinum Equity in 2018.
Bob Sallmann, Chief Financial Officer
Bob Sallmann joined McGraw Hill as Chief Financial Officer on April 15, 2024, and is responsible for the company's global financial strategy. His role encompasses financial management, including accounting, finance, internal audit, investor relations, tax, treasury, procurement, real estate, and supply chain teams. Sallmann brings over 20 years of experience in developing and implementing financial and operational strategy for global organizations, with a focus on growing enterprise value and leading business transformation. He previously served as CFO at Laird Connectivity, a wireless technology manufacturer, and Enbi Group, a global elastomer manufacturer.
David Cortese, Chief Digital Information Officer
David Cortese joined McGraw Hill on April 8, 2024, in the newly created role of Chief Digital Information Officer. He oversees digital platform development, information technology, and data analytics for the company, including McGraw Hill's Digital Platform Group (DPG) and Global Technology Services (GTS) group. Cortese has over 30 years of experience in technology and operational leadership roles, and prior to McGraw Hill, he served as Chief Digital Officer at Influential, where he oversaw enterprise product and engineering teams and AI solutions.
Scott Grillo, President, Professional Group
Scott Grillo serves as the President of McGraw Hill's Professional group. In this role, he is responsible for all aspects of the organization's core publishing program and online subscription products across the Medical, Technical, Business, and Test Prep categories. He began his publishing career with Prentice Hall, holding sales and marketing positions within both the Higher Education and Professional Technical Reference divisions.
Marty Lange, Senior Vice President, Chief Product & Operating Officer
Marty Lange holds the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Product & Operating Officer at McGraw Hill.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to McGraw Hill (NYSE: MH), a global provider of education solutions for preK-12, higher education, and professional learning, primarily revolve around the dynamic nature of the education technology sector and its customer base. McGraw Hill recently became a public company again on July 24, 2025.
- Disruption from Evolving Educational Technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI): McGraw Hill has increasingly focused on digital education solutions, serving millions of digital learners annually. This strategic shift exposes the company to rapid technological advancements and the potential disruptive impact of new technologies, such as generative AI, on content creation, delivery, and personalized learning experiences. Failure to continuously innovate and adapt to these evolving technologies could challenge the relevance and competitiveness of its offerings.
- Intense Competition in the Digital Learning Market: As McGraw Hill has gone "all-in on digital education solutions," it faces significant competition from other established educational publishers, specialized education technology companies, and new market entrants. This competitive landscape demands ongoing investment in product development, marketing, and sales to maintain or grow market share, and could put pressure on pricing and profitability.
- Dependence on Educational Institution Budgets and Enrollment Trends: McGraw Hill's business heavily relies on sales to K-12 schools, higher education institutions, and professional learning markets. Consequently, fluctuations in public funding for education, school district and university budgets, and student enrollment numbers can directly impact the demand for its educational materials and digital platforms. Economic downturns or demographic shifts affecting student populations represent inherent risks to the company's revenue streams.
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- Open Educational Resources (OER): The widespread and growing adoption of freely accessible, openly licensed educational materials directly threatens McGraw Hill's traditional revenue streams from textbooks and digital content. Universities, K-12 districts, and other educational institutions are increasingly turning to OER to reduce costs for students and provide customizable learning materials. This movement presents a direct, free alternative to proprietary educational products, challenging the established publisher model and showing clear evidence of increasing market penetration.
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McGraw Hill (symbol: MH) operates in the K-12, Higher Education, and Professional/Continuing Education markets, offering a range of learning solutions, digital tools, platforms, and curated content globally.
Addressable Market Sizes:
K-12 Education Market
- Global: The global K-12 education market was valued at approximately USD 2.50 trillion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 5.66 trillion by 2030. Another estimate places the market at USD 2,788.83 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 7,247.64 billion by 2032.
- U.S.: The U.S. K-12 education market was estimated at USD 4 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 31 billion by the end of 2032.
Higher Education Market
- Global: The global higher education market was estimated at USD 736.80 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 1,569.37 billion by 2030. Another report states the market size at USD 1,042.31 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 2,557.93 billion by 2034.
- U.S.: The U.S. higher education market generated a revenue of approximately USD 192.92 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 370.41 billion by 2030. Another source indicates the U.S. market size was USD 211.36 billion in 2024 and is expected to be worth around USD 669.24 billion by 2034.
Professional and Continuing Education Market
- Global: The global professional development market was valued at USD 478.4 billion in 2024. The global continuing education market was valued at approximately USD 50 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 80 billion by 2032.
- U.S.: The professional education market in the United States has a total market size of around US$60 billion. The U.S. continuing education market was valued at USD 66.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 95.98 billion by 2030.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for McGraw Hill (MH)
- Digital Transformation and Recurring Revenue Models: McGraw Hill is actively shifting towards digital and recurring revenue models, such as its Inclusive Access and Evergreen programs, which are central to its U.S. higher education strategy. Digital revenue growth is outpacing overall revenue growth, with recurring revenue expected to reach $1,477–$1,517 million in fiscal year 2026. These initiatives aim to redefine education delivery through affordable, flexible digital solutions, with the Evergreen model achieving a 95% adoption rate.
- AI-Driven Innovation and Personalized Learning: The company is strategically investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its educational offerings. This includes AI tools like Scribe to reduce costs and accelerate product cycles, and AI-powered learning platforms such as AI Reader and Writing Assistant, designed to personalize learning experiences at scale. This focus on AI is considered a key competitive advantage and is expected to drive market expansion.
- Strategic Positioning in the K-12 Market: Despite an anticipated decline in K-12 revenue for fiscal year 2026, McGraw Hill is strategically positioning itself for significant growth in the larger fiscal year 2027 K-12 adoption cycle. The company has secured review panel recommendations for California math programs and is conducting a nationwide K-5 core literacy pilot to capitalize on future market opportunities. Growth is also expected from expanding supplemental and intervention solutions in this segment.
- International Expansion: McGraw Hill views international expansion as a key driver to solidify its position as a long-term edtech leader. Opportunities are particularly noted in emerging economies where digital infrastructure is rapidly expanding, unlocking new revenue streams. The company's digital learning platform, Connect, already demonstrates strong international uptake, with a significant percentage of its activations coming from outside the United States.
- Growth in Professional Education, Particularly Medical Solutions: The company is expanding its presence in professional education, with a strong emphasis on medical education. McGraw Hill is strategically phasing out non-core print titles in its Global Professional division to focus on high-margin digital medical solutions, indicating a strategic pivot towards more profitable segments within professional learning.
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Share Issuance
- McGraw Hill launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on July 14, 2025, offering 24,390,000 shares of common stock at a price of $17.00 per share.
- The IPO generated approximately $385.7 million in net proceeds for the company.
- The company intends to use these net proceeds primarily to repay a portion of its outstanding term loan credit facility.
Inbound Investments
- In June 2021, Platinum Equity acquired McGraw Hill from Apollo Global Management in a deal valued at $4.5 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Prior to 2021, under the ownership of Apollo Global Management, McGraw Hill completed six digital-focused takeovers to enhance its digital portfolio.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal first quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q1 2026), capital expenditures amounted to approximately $16.3 million.
- In the corresponding prior-year period (Q1 2025), capital expenditures were approximately $15.9 million.
- McGraw Hill has consistently invested significantly in Research & Development (R&D) in recent years, allocating 16% to 17% of its revenue towards innovation and the development of new digital and AI-supported learning solutions.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.7% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for McGraw Hill
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-12 | 905 | 958 | 791 | 584 | 594 |
| Higher Education | 702 | 654 | 664 | 649 | 629 |
| International | 200 | 188 | 186 | 169 | 203 |
| Global Professional | 153 | 148 | 148 | 142 | 157 |
| Other | -0 | -0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Total | 1,960 | 1,948 | 1,790 | 1,545 | 1,585 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-12 | 291 | 304 | |||
| Higher Education | 290 | 245 | |||
| Global Professional | 43 | 39 | |||
| International | 31 | 24 | |||
| Other | 1 | 6 | |||
| Transaction and integration costs | -8 | -7 | |||
| Advisory fees | -10 | ||||
| Adjusted EBITDA - other | -17 | ||||
| Purchase accounting | -18 | -47 | |||
| Restructuring and cost savings implementation charges | -33 | -21 | |||
| Impairment charge | -50 | -312 | |||
| Depreciation, amortization and product development amortization | -366 | -372 | |||
| Integration costs | -31 | ||||
| Sponsor fees | -10 | ||||
| Total | 155 | -180 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 23.9% | 42.8% | 50.8% |
| 8/14/2025 | -5.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 23.9% | 25.2% | 27.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | ||
| Max Positive | 23.9% | 42.8% | 50.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 424B4 (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | DRS/A (12/31/2024) |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/13/2023 | DRS/A (06/30/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | DRS/A (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/22/2022 | DRS/A (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | DRS (06/30/2022) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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