MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $1678.15 | Market Cap: $85.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $1678.15Market Cap: $85.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. MercadoLibre's Q4 2025 earnings, reported on February 24, 2026, showed a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss despite strong revenue growth. While net revenue increased 44.6% year-over-year to $8.76 billion, exceeding analyst estimates, GAAP EPS of $11.03 fell short of the consensus estimate of $11.44 by 3.6%. This miss was primarily due to strategic investments in logistics, free shipping initiatives in Brazil, and credit expansion, which compressed the operating margin to 10.1% from 13.5% in the prior year. The stock declined 8.7% following this report.
2. The Q1 2026 earnings, released on May 7, 2026, continued the trend of strong revenue growth but a notable decline in profitability, exacerbating investor concerns. MercadoLibre reported net revenues of $8.85 billion, a 49% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations. However, EPS of $8.23 missed estimates, ranging from $8.32 to $9.37, by 1.08% to 12.17%. Operating income declined to $611 million with a 6.9% margin, down from $763 million and a 12.9% margin in Q1 2025, while net income fell to $417 million from $494 million year-over-year. This profitability contraction stemmed from continued aggressive investments in growth areas like the free shipping threshold in Brazil and credit card expansion, alongside increased operating expenses. The stock tumbled 11% following this earnings report.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.9% change in MELI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2147.79 | 1677.90 | -21.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,193 | 28,893 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 6.9% | -12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.4 | 42.6 | -18.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -21.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.8% | 48.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.9% change in MELI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2327.26 | 1677.90 | -27.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,193 | 28,893 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 6.9% | -12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.8 | 42.6 | -25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -27.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 41.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 45.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.0% change in MELI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2330.85 | 1677.90 | -28.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,777 | 28,893 | 39.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 6.9% | -24.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.8 | 42.6 | -31.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -28.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 35.5% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.3% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.3% change in MELI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1277.49 | 1677.90 | 31.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,780 | 28,893 | 168.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 6.9% | 54.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 133.3 | 42.6 | -68.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 31.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.6% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.5% | 38.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MELI Return | -20% | -37% | 86% | 8% | 18% | -18% | -1% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -55% | 42% | 40% | 15% | -8% | -5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MELI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 30% | 63% | 58% | 57% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MELI Max Drawdown | -47% | -55% | -19% | -25% | -27% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -62% | -30% | -22% | -32% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 779.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 662 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MercadoLibre (MELI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for MercadoLibre:
- The Amazon of Latin America.
- A blend of Amazon and PayPal for Latin America.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Mercado Libre Marketplace: An automated online commerce platform enabling businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases.
- Mercado Pago FinTech: A financial technology solution platform that facilitates online transactions by allowing users to send, receive, and transfer payments.
- Mercado Fondo: A service that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
- Mercado Credito: A lending service that extends loans to certain merchants and consumers.
- Mercado Envios: A logistics solution providing sellers with third-party carrier options, fulfillment, and warehousing services.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds: An online classified listing service for motor vehicles, real estate, and other services.
- Mercado Libre Ads: An advertising platform enabling retailers and brands to promote products and services on the internet.
- Mercado Shops: An online storefronts solution for users to set up, manage, and promote their own digital stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, serving a diverse customer base that includes both individuals and businesses. Due to the nature of its marketplace model, it does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" in the traditional sense. Instead, its customer base comprises millions of users, both consumers and businesses, across its various platforms. Therefore, its customers are best described by categories:
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Individual Consumers (Buyers)
These are the millions of individuals across Latin America who utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace to browse and purchase a wide array of goods and services. They also engage with Mercado Pago for digital payments, money transfers, personal investments (Mercado Fondo), and may access consumer loans through Mercado Credito. This category represents the demand side of the marketplace.
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Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) & Individual Entrepreneurs (Sellers)
This group consists of numerous small to medium-sized businesses and individual sellers who leverage the Mercado Libre platform to list and sell their products. They extensively use Mercado Pago for receiving payments, Mercado Envios for logistics and fulfillment, Mercado Credito for business financing, Mercado Libre Ads for promotional activities, and Mercado Shops to establish and manage their online storefronts. They form the supply side of the marketplace and are a significant source of direct revenue for MercadoLibre.
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Large Retailers and Brands
Larger companies, established retailers, and prominent brands utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace as a key sales channel to reach a massive audience. They often make significant use of Mercado Libre Ads to promote their products and services and may integrate with Mercado Envios for efficient logistics and warehousing solutions.
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Ariel Szarfsztejn President and Chief Executive Officer
Ariel Szarfsztejn was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of MercadoLibre on January 1, 2026. He previously served as Commerce President of MercadoLibre since January 2024. Mr. Szarfsztejn joined MercadoLibre in 2017, initially working in Strategy and New Business. He subsequently led the development of the company's logistics network across Latin America and, for three years, successfully managed the Marketplace division. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and completed a postgraduate degree at Stanford. Prior to his tenure at MercadoLibre, his first formal corporate position was in Human Resources at Citibank.
Martín de los Santos Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Martín de los Santos has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MercadoLibre since January 2024, having previously been Senior Vice President & CFO from August 2023. He initially joined MercadoLibre in 2008 and has held various significant roles, including Senior Vice President of the credits division. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Vostu, IMPSA, Merrill Lynch, McKinsey & Co., and Goldman Sachs. Mr. de los Santos also served as an independent director of MercadoLibre from 2008 to 2013. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Marcos Galperin Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of the Board
Marcos Galperin is the co-founder of MercadoLibre and, as of January 1, 2026, serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board, transitioning from his role as CEO. He co-founded Mercado Libre in 1999 while pursuing his MBA at Stanford University, where he conceived the idea for an eBay-like platform for Latin America. Prior to founding MercadoLibre, he worked at J.P. Morgan Securities in New York and managed YPF S.A.'s currency and oil derivatives program in Argentina. He earned an MBA from Stanford University and graduated with honors from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in Economics. Mr. Galperin secured initial funding for MercadoLibre through the Hicks Muse private equity fund.
Osvaldo Giménez Fintech President
Osvaldo Giménez has been MercadoLibre's Fintech President since August 2020, where he oversees Mercado Pago's operations, a division he has led since 2004. He joined MercadoLibre in 2000 as Country Manager for Argentina and Chile. Before his time at MercadoLibre, he worked as an associate consultant at Booz Allen & Hamilton and in the fixed income department at Santander Investments in New York. Mr. Giménez holds an MBA from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires.
Daniel Rabinovich Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Daniel Rabinovich serves as MercadoLibre's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. He is an experienced executive within the company, having previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Mercado Envios, which is MercadoLibre's logistics and supply chain division.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to MercadoLibre's business are primarily linked to the macroeconomic and political environment in Latin America, intense competition in its core e-commerce and FinTech segments, and the inherent credit risks associated with its rapidly expanding lending portfolio.
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Economic and Political Instability in Latin America: MercadoLibre's operations are heavily concentrated in Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, making it highly susceptible to regional macro headwinds. Risks include slowing economic growth, high inflation, political uncertainties, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, which can impact consumer purchasing power, merchant activity, and overall profitability.
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Intense Competition: MercadoLibre faces significant competitive challenges across its e-commerce and FinTech platforms. The company competes with global e-commerce giants, local online retailers, traditional banks, and emerging FinTech companies, including aggressive players like Shopee and Temu. This intense competition can lead to increased investment in logistics, marketing, and pricing pressures, which in turn can compress profit margins.
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Credit Risk from FinTech Operations: The rapid expansion of MercadoLibre's FinTech segment, particularly its Mercado Credito lending solution, exposes the company to significant credit risk. While the credit portfolio has shown substantial growth, there are concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and the potential for increased defaults, especially given the volatile economic conditions in some of its operating markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) and live shopping models, which directly compete for merchant engagement and consumer purchases, potentially diverting sales from MercadoLibre's traditional marketplace and advertising platforms.
- The proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix), offering low-cost, instant transaction alternatives that can bypass Mercado Pago's proprietary payment network, potentially impacting its transaction revenue and reducing the stickiness of its financial ecosystem.
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Addressable Markets for MercadoLibre's Main Products and Services in Latin America
- Mercado Libre Marketplace (E-commerce): The e-commerce market in Latin America was valued at USD 1.61 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 1.78 trillion in 2026. It is projected to grow to USD 4.06 trillion by 2034. Other estimates suggest the Latin American e-commerce transaction volume is expected to surpass USD 760 billion in 2026.
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Mercado Pago FinTech (Financial Technology Solutions, Online Payments, Money Transfers): The Latin America fintech market size was valued at USD 15.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 54.01 billion by 2034. Another source indicates the Latin America fintech market was valued at USD 71.36 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 76.01 billion in 2025, and is expected to expand to USD 125.88 billion by 2033.
Specifically for payments, the Latin American payments market size was valued at USD 715.28 billion in 2024, is expected to reach USD 787.74 billion in 2025, and USD 1,704.62 billion by 2033. Latin America's digital payments market is projected to reach USD 0.3 trillion by 2027. - Mercado Credito (Digital Lending): The digital lending platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 1,163.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 5,014.9 million by 2030.
- Mercado Envios (Logistics Solutions): The Latin America logistics market size reached USD 347.7 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to USD 577.5 billion by 2033, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025. Another report estimated the market to be USD 360 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to US$ 527.5 billion by 2030.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds (Online Classified Listing Service): The online classified ad platform market size reached $38.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $43.8 billion in 2026, with an expected increase to $71.54 billion in 2030. The global online classified market was valued at USD 35.8 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 38.95 billion in 2025 and USD 76.48 billion by 2033.
- Mercado Libre Ads (Advertising Platform): The Latin America digital advertising market size reached USD 43,509.7 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 166,224.6 million by 2034. Other data suggests the digital ad spend market in Latin America is expected to reach US$50.1 billion by 2026.
- Mercado Shops (Online Storefronts Solution): The e-commerce platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 193.1 million in 2024. This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.5% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 887.2 million by 2033.
- Mercado Fondo (Investment Funds): Null
AI Analysis | Feedback
MercadoLibre (MELI) is poised for continued revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and market dynamics in Latin America. The company's multifaceted approach focuses on enhancing its core e-commerce platform, expanding its financial technology services, strengthening its logistics capabilities, growing its advertising business, and leveraging strategic technology investments.
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for MercadoLibre:
- Expansion of Fintech Services (Mercado Pago), particularly Credit and Digital Banking: Mercado Pago is anticipated to become an even more significant strategic driver, with substantial expansion in payment operations, asset management, and especially its credit business. The credit portfolio has shown robust growth, with a notable increase of 90% year-over-year in Q4 2025, reaching $12.5 billion. Mercado Pago is actively evolving into a comprehensive digital bank, aiming to become the largest in Latin America by fostering primary financial relationships with its users. This includes a growing credit card origination, which is already the preferred payment method in Mexico.
- Continued E-commerce Marketplace Growth and Market Share Gains in Latin America: MercadoLibre is projected to sustain a revenue growth rate of 20% to 25% over the next three years, capitalizing on steady e-commerce penetration in key markets like Brazil and Mexico. The company is focused on increasing its market dominance by investing in the widest possible product assortment and continuously improving the value proposition for both buyers and sellers on its platform. This includes the accelerated growth of its first-party business, particularly in Brazil, which saw an 81% increase in 2023. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) continues to expand significantly, rising 37% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
- Expansion and Optimization of the Logistics Network (Mercado Envios): Significant investments in MercadoLibre's logistics infrastructure are a crucial driver. The company is continuously expanding its network with a focus on increasing fulfillment penetration, which was nearly 50% in Q4 2023, leading to faster shipping and fewer delivery delays. In 2024, MercadoLibre opened ten new fulfillment centers and expanded its free shipping program, which has successfully boosted transaction volumes and customer engagement. These strategic investments in logistics hubs and infrastructure are designed to strengthen its competitive advantage.
- Growth of the Advertising Business (Mercado Libre Ads): The advertising platform, Mercado Libre Ads, is consistently delivering impressive and accelerating revenue growth. In 2023, nearly 50,000 new advertisers were onboarded, recognizing the value of promoting products on the platform. The advertising business is further fueled by AI-powered bidding algorithms, which contributed to a 67% growth. Advertising revenue also increased 41% year-over-year (88% FX-neutral) in 4Q24.
- Strategic Investments in Technology (particularly AI) and Infrastructure: MercadoLibre is making substantial capital allocations and investments in technology and infrastructure across its key Latin American markets. These investments include accelerating the use of AI, which supports long-term growth by enhancing credit underwriting and personalized financial advisory, and improving operational efficiency through tools like a conversational AI assistant that handles a significant portion of Mercado Pago's customer interactions. While these investments may lead to short-term margin compression, they are strategic moves aimed at capturing long-term market share and reinforcing the company's ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- MercadoLibre authorized a share repurchase program of up to $350 million between September 2020 and August 2021.
- In August 2021, the company announced a new equity buyback program to repurchase up to $150 million worth of its shares, valid until August 2022.
- MercadoLibre executed significant share repurchases, with approximately $601.54 million in 2021 and an estimated $743.77 million in the first three quarters of 2023.
Outbound Investments
- MercadoLibre acquired Redelcom, a company specializing in hardware-based POS terminals, in December 2021.
- The company made substantial strategic investments in its Mercado Pago fintech segment, resulting in its credit portfolio growing by 90% to $12.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- MercadoLibre is strategically investing in logistics infrastructure, technology, and free shipping initiatives across its key markets in Latin America, including a partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy humanoid robots in warehouse operations in December 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- MercadoLibre's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, with $573 million in 2021, $509 million in 2023, and $860 million in 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures for the latest twelve months, as of September 2025, totaled $1.221 billion.
- MercadoLibre anticipates continued significant capital expenditures, with forecasts of $1.575 billion for 2025 and $1.798 billion for 2026, primarily focused on enhancing logistics, technology, fulfillment capabilities, user experience, and expanding free shipping initiatives.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 111.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 68.8 |
| Rev LTM | 31,314 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,736 |
| FCF LTM | 1,904 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,667 |
| CFO LTM | 4,282 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,267 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 33.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 68.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 30.2 |
| P/EBIT | 26.4 |
| P/E | 28.7 |
| P/CFO | 18.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -34.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -43.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commerce services | 10,076 | 6,754 | |||
| Financial services and income | 4,962 | 4,317 | |||
| Credit revenues | 3,600 | 2,546 | |||
| Commerce products sales | 2,083 | 1,447 | |||
| Fintech products sales | 56 | 43 | |||
| Commerce revenues | 5,808 | 4,635 | 2,560 | ||
| Fintech revenues | 4,729 | 2,434 | 1,414 | ||
| Total | 20,777 | 15,107 | 10,537 | 7,069 | 3,973 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,677.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 85.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,727.19 | $2,042.66 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -2.9% | -17.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.7% | 39.5% |
| Downside Capture | 175.86 | 149.12 |
| Upside Capture | 59.00 | 52.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.7% | 35.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.79 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Up Beta | 1.78 | 1.67 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 1.36 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 1.23 | 1.44 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | 124% | 155% | 89% | 120% | 61% | 114% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 27 | 58 | 124 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 300% | 156% | 183% | 163% | 125% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 37 | 67 | 127 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | -35.8% | 39.5% | -1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.8% | 18.3% | 0.42 | 33.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.8% | 12.1% | 1.67 | 36.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.8% | 1.16 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.5% | 18.6% | 1.80 | -10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 13.4% | 0.59 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 41.8% | -0.65 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 4.6% | 49.6% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.7% | 23.7% | 0.28 | 56.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.3% | 18.0% | 0.87 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | 7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 55.6% | 0.37 | 27.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 29.3% | 48.8% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 52.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 14.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 16.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.2% | -10.8% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.6% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
| 2 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 3 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form | |
| 4 | Tolda, Stelleo | Didomi Fund | Sell | 12112025 | 2047.88 | 246 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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