Modiv Industrial (MDV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.895 | Market Cap: $151.9 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Industrial REITs
Modiv Industrial (MDV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.895Market Cap: $151.9 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Industrial REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Key risksMDV key risks include [1] high leverage with substantial debt concentration in a single term loan maturing in 2027, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x |
| Key risksMDV key risks include [1] high leverage with substantial debt concentration in a single term loan maturing in 2027, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MDV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points regarding Modiv Industrial's (MDV) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Modiv Industrial announced its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 14, 2025, reporting stable performance with average annual rent growth of 2.5% and a focus on maintaining a conservative capital strategy. The company also anticipated a $100,000 decrease in property expenses in 2026, contributing to minor shifts in investor sentiment.
2. The declaration of regular quarterly dividends for preferred stockholders on December 11, 2025, and monthly distributions for common shareholders on October 17, 2025, provided ongoing information to the market. While generally positive, some analyses indicated a high dividend payout ratio that might raise questions about sustainability, potentially leading to slight market reactions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDV Return | � | � | � | 35% | 17% | 7% | � |
| Peers Return | -2% | 69% | -30% | 10% | -3% | 13% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDV Win Rate | � | � | 50% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 78% | 37% | 52% | 43% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDV Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -12% | -0% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -4% | -41% | -15% | -15% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STAG, PLYM, LXP, FR, GOOD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MDV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 603.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to LINE, FR, TRNO, SMA, PLD
In The Past
Modiv Industrial's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2022. A -85.8% loss requires a 603.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Modiv Industrial Earnings Notes | ||
| How Low Can Modiv Industrial Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MDV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Modiv Industrial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 278 |
| Op Inc LTM | 59 |
| FCF LTM | 146 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 158 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 143 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 36.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 57.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 52.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 48.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | 27.4 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 29.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/14/2025 | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% |
| 3/4/2025 | -5.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 1.6% | -3.8% | -3.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 1.3% | -0.5% | 8.1% |
| 3/4/2024 | -1.0% | -4.4% | 3.9% |
| 11/13/2023 | 0.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 8/14/2023 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 21.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -0.9% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 12.3% | 25.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -4.4% | -5.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |