Tearsheet

Modiv Industrial (MDV)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.895 | Market Cap: $151.9 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Industrial REITs

Modiv Industrial (MDV)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.895
Market Cap: $151.9 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Industrial REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.2%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  Key risks
MDV key risks include [1] high leverage with substantial debt concentration in a single term loan maturing in 2027, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.2%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x
7 Key risks
MDV key risks include [1] high leverage with substantial debt concentration in a single term loan maturing in 2027, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points regarding Modiv Industrial's (MDV) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Modiv Industrial announced its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 14, 2025, reporting stable performance with average annual rent growth of 2.5% and a focus on maintaining a conservative capital strategy. The company also anticipated a $100,000 decrease in property expenses in 2026, contributing to minor shifts in investor sentiment.

2. The declaration of regular quarterly dividends for preferred stockholders on December 11, 2025, and monthly distributions for common shareholders on October 17, 2025, provided ongoing information to the market. While generally positive, some analyses indicated a high dividend payout ratio that might raise questions about sustainability, potentially leading to slight market reactions.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDV Return35%17%7%
Peers Return-2%69%-30%10%-3%13%41%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDV Win Rate50%50%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%78%37%52%43%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDV Max Drawdown-12%-0%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-4%-41%-15%-15%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STAG, PLYM, LXP, FR, GOOD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMDVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven603.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to LINE, FR, TRNO, SMA, PLD


In The Past

Modiv Industrial's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2022. A -85.8% loss requires a 603.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Modiv Industrial (MDV)

Better Bets than Modiv Industrial (MDV)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Modiv Industrial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDVSTAGPLYMLXPFRGOODMedian
NameModiv In.Stag Ind.Plymouth.LXP Indu.First In.Gladston. 
Mkt Price14.9137.4921.8450.0458.6011.0329.66
Mkt Cap0.27.01.02.97.80.52.0
Rev LTM47824192364714155278
Op Inc LTM2030833643015559
FCF LTM1740410119141695146
FCF 3Y Avg183938318235467133
CFO LTM1746410121641695158
CFO 3Y Avg184338320335467143

Growth & Margins

MDVSTAGPLYMLXPFRGOODMedian
NameModiv In.Stag Ind.Plymouth.LXP Indu.First In.Gladston. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.8%9.6%-5.0%7.0%9.7%5.0%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%9.1%3.1%3.7%11.4%1.8%5.1%
Rev Chg Q0.3%10.7%-1.4%1.6%8.2%4.1%2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%2.5%-0.4%0.4%2.0%1.0%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM42.5%37.4%17.3%17.6%42.2%35.3%36.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg33.0%35.3%16.2%17.0%40.9%34.2%33.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.6%-0.7%0.5%0.7%-0.8%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM35.1%56.3%52.7%59.3%58.2%61.3%57.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.2%57.3%42.6%58.2%53.7%44.4%49.1%
FCF/Rev LTM35.1%49.1%52.7%52.5%58.2%61.3%52.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg37.2%52.1%42.6%52.4%53.7%44.4%48.2%

Valuation

MDVSTAGPLYMLXPFRGOODMedian
NameModiv In.Stag Ind.Plymouth.LXP Indu.First In.Gladston. 
Mkt Cap0.27.01.02.97.80.52.0
P/S3.28.05.11.49.53.74.4
P/EBIT8.317.5-2.820.59.69.6
P/E107.827.310.64.528.827.427.4
P/CFO9.214.29.82.416.46.19.5
Total Yield8.8%6.9%9.4%22.4%6.7%6.5%7.8%
Dividend Yield7.8%3.2%0.0%0.0%3.2%2.8%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.4%5.9%-33.7%5.2%11.9%11.9%
D/E1.80.5-2.70.41.51.5
Net D/E1.80.5-2.20.41.41.4

Returns

MDVSTAGPLYMLXPFRGOODMedian
NameModiv In.Stag Ind.Plymouth.LXP Indu.First In.Gladston. 
1M Rtn2.3%-2.3%-1.8%9.1%5.2%0.0%1.2%
3M Rtn3.6%7.0%1.0%11.3%14.3%-12.6%5.3%
6M Rtn8.0%5.3%36.2%18.8%21.4%-20.3%13.4%
12M Rtn2.8%10.5%20.7%21.4%16.5%-27.8%13.5%
3Y Rtn59.7%30.6%27.4%15.0%31.9%-24.6%29.0%
1M Excs Rtn1.6%-3.1%-2.5%8.4%4.5%-0.7%0.4%
3M Excs Rtn-0.5%5.3%-1.0%7.8%11.6%-14.5%2.4%
6M Excs Rtn-4.4%-7.0%23.9%6.4%9.0%-32.7%1.0%
12M Excs Rtn-9.4%-2.3%10.7%6.9%3.7%-39.7%0.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-9.2%-41.3%-41.9%-56.5%-40.1%-94.5%-41.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Single Segment474438
Total474438


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity263,093
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202574.8%
Average Daily Volume32,569
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.08
Basic Shares Quantity10,197,942
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/14/2025-0.1%-0.1% 
8/7/20253.8%2.5%4.5%
3/4/2025-5.1%2.3%3.6%
11/6/20241.6%-3.8%-3.7%
8/6/20241.3%-0.5%8.1%
3/4/2024-1.0%-4.4%3.9%
11/13/20230.1%2.5%0.7%
8/14/20233.8%3.4%21.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive879
# Negative564
Median Positive2.8%3.4%6.7%
Median Negative-1.0%-0.9%-3.7%
Max Positive6.2%12.3%25.4%
Max Negative-5.9%-4.4%-5.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023516202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022313202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/31/2021