Medline (MDLN)
Market Price (2/5/2026): $45.0 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Medline (MDLN)
Market Price (2/5/2026): $45.0Market Cap: $-Sector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% | Key risksMDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -62% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9%, Dist 3Y High is -2.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -62% |
| Key risksMDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Market Debut and Initial Investor Confidence.
Medline's initial public offering (IPO) on December 17, 2025, was notably the largest U.S. IPO of the year. The stock opened at $35.00, significantly above its IPO price of $29.00, and closed its first trading day at $41.00, reflecting strong initial investor demand and confidence in the company.
2. Positive Analyst Coverage and Outlook.
Following its market debut, numerous analysts initiated coverage on Medline with predominantly bullish ratings, often assigning "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendations and setting optimistic price targets. This favorable analyst sentiment has been driven by Medline's leadership position in the medical-surgical manufacturing and distribution sector, coupled with its robust supply chain and vertically integrated business model.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.2% | 6.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.2% | 6.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.6% | 6.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 3.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.4% | 6.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDLN Return | - | - | - | - | 2% | 6% | 9% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 49% | 7% | 195% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDLN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 60% | 55% | 72% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDLN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -4% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -7% | -11% | -4% | -0% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCK, CAH, COR, JNJ, MDT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MDLN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MCK, CAH, COR, JNJ, MDT
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Medline (MDLN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Grainger for hospitals
- Sysco for healthcare
- Amazon for medical supplies
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Medical and Surgical Supplies: Manufactures and distributes a wide array of products essential for patient care, including gloves, gowns, wound care, and diagnostic instruments.
- Durable Medical Equipment (DME): Provides a range of equipment such as wheelchairs, walkers, and hospital beds for use in healthcare facilities and home settings.
- Supply Chain and Distribution Services: Offers integrated logistics and inventory management solutions to optimize the delivery and utilization of medical supplies for healthcare providers.
- Clinical Programs and Solutions: Delivers services, education, and consulting to help healthcare organizations enhance patient outcomes, improve operational efficiency, and manage costs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline Industries, Inc. (Medline) primarily sells to other companies and organizations within the healthcare industry. While the company was involved in discussions regarding a potential public listing or SPAC merger in recent years, Medline is currently a privately held company, owned by the Ricketts family and a consortium of private equity firms (Blackstone, Carlyle, Hellman & Friedman). Therefore, it does not currently trade under the symbol MDLN, and detailed lists of specific customer company names are not publicly disclosed.
However, based on its role as a leading global manufacturer and distributor of medical supplies and equipment, Medline serves a broad range of healthcare providers. Its major customer categories include:
- Hospitals and Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs): This segment includes acute care hospitals, large hospital systems, and networks that integrate various healthcare services. These entities purchase a comprehensive array of medical and surgical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare equipment.
- Long-Term Care Facilities: This category encompasses skilled nursing facilities, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and other post-acute care providers that require medical supplies, incontinence products, nutritional support, and other essential items for patient care.
- Physician Offices, Clinics, and Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs): This broad segment includes private physician practices, specialty clinics (e.g., cardiology, orthopedics), urgent care centers, and outpatient surgical facilities. They procure a variety of examination supplies, instruments, diagnostic kits, and operational supplies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jim Boyle, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Boyle joined Medline in 1996, serving as Executive Vice President from 2018 to 2023, where he managed a customer base of over 5,000 healthcare providers and oversaw more than $21 billion in annual sales. He was responsible for the strategic direction and execution of commercial functions across healthcare segments, as well as marketing, operations, and logistics departments. Before this role, he was Senior Vice President of acute care sales and national sales director, leading the company's strategy and sales for its largest customers and more than doubling annual sales during his tenure. Boyle was named CEO in 2023. He earned a Bachelor of Science in industrial distribution from Texas A&M University. He has been recognized twice on Modern Healthcare's "100 Most Influential People in Healthcare" list.
Mike Drazin, Chief Financial Officer
Mike Drazin joined Medline as Chief Financial Officer in 2018, overseeing all finance, accounting, tax, treasury, and corporate development. In 2021, he led Medline through a leveraged buyout by a consortium of private equity firms, including Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, which acquired a majority stake for over $30 billion. Prior to Medline, Drazin spent more than a decade at Illinois Tool Works (ITW), serving as a group controller for various business segments and later heading global financial planning and analysis and investor relations. He began his finance career in Arthur Andersen's audit practice in 1996 and held financial oversight roles with early-stage technology companies. His past experience also includes serving as Group Controller at Click Commerce, Inc. and Chief Financial Officer at Presutti Laboratories, as well as Controller at CloudShield Technologies, Inc. Drazin holds a Bachelor of Science in accounting from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Jim Pigott, President & Chief Operating Officer
Jim Pigott joined Medline in 1992 and has held various leadership roles in strategy, products, global sourcing, inventory management, and Medline Asia. He has served as Medline's President and Chief Operating Officer since October 2023 and is slated to retire at the end of 2025. Earlier in his career, he worked at Pigott Electric Co.
Marshall Lancaster, Chief Information Officer
Marshall Lancaster joined Medline in 2020 as Chief Information Officer. Before Medline, he held similar roles at companies such as Essendant, Collegis Education, Hyatt Hotels Corp., and Carnival Corp. His experience also includes serving as VP:IT Enterprise Applications at Essendant and Satellite Communications Supervisor at the United States Air Force. Lancaster is an alumnus of the United States Air Force, Harvard Business School, and Louisiana State University - LSU.
Amanda Laabs, Chief Product Officer
Amanda Laabs joined Medline in 2006 and has advanced through several product management leadership roles. Most recently, she was Executive Vice President of Medline Brands in 2023. Effective January 1, 2025, as Medline's first Chief Product Officer, she will lead all product divisions, international markets, and the global sourcing organization.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (MDLN), a prominent healthcare company, is navigating its entry into the public market with several key business risks identified in its S-1 filing and related analyses. The three most significant risks include:- Substantial Debt Load: Medline carries a significant debt burden, estimated at around $17 billion following its 2021 leveraged buyout. A primary objective of the initial public offering (IPO) is to utilize the proceeds to reduce this substantial indebtedness. The high debt level could strain the company's financial flexibility and incur significant interest payments.
- "Up-C" Organizational Structure and Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA): Medline operates under an "Up-C" structure, which allows pre-IPO owners to retain voting control. This structure includes a Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) that obligates the public company to pay its private equity sponsors a percentage of future tax savings. The S-1 filing explicitly warns of "substantial cash leakage" resulting from this arrangement, which could dilute the financial benefits for public shareholders.
- Product Safety Issues and Regulatory Scrutiny: Medline has faced specific product safety challenges, including a major recall in 2024 of 1.5 million adult bed rails linked to two reported deaths. Such incidents highlight the inherent risks associated with product liability, potential regulatory fines, and damage to the company's reputation and brand trust within the healthcare industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
-
Increased Competition from Technology-Driven E-commerce Giants: The expansion of e-commerce platforms, particularly from giants like Amazon (e.g., Amazon Business, potential deeper foray into medical-surgical supplies), poses a significant emerging threat. These companies leverage advanced logistics, technological prowess, data analytics, and a consumer-centric purchasing experience to offer competitive pricing and streamlined procurement. This could disrupt traditional distributor relationships, especially for commoditized or less specialized medical supplies, by offering healthcare providers a more direct and potentially lower-cost purchasing channel that bypasses established distributors like Medline. This parallels the threat Netflix posed to Blockbuster by offering a fundamentally different and often more convenient service model.
-
Accelerated Vertical Integration and Direct Sourcing by Healthcare Providers and GPOs: Large Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and Group Purchasing Organizations (GPOs) are increasingly focusing on supply chain optimization through direct sourcing from manufacturers, developing their own distribution capabilities, and even investing in captive manufacturing for certain high-volume items. This trend, intensified by post-pandemic supply chain vulnerabilities and persistent cost pressures in healthcare, aims to reduce reliance on traditional distributors to control costs and enhance resilience. If major healthcare systems continue to bypass or significantly reduce their engagement with third-party distributors, it directly erodes Medline’s market share and profitability by cutting out the middleman in the supply chain.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (symbol: MDLN) operates within a substantial addressable market for its primary products and services. The total addressable market for Medline is estimated to be approximately $375 billion annually globally, with the United States alone representing an opportunity of $175 billion. Medline's main products and services encompass a broad range of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions. Their offerings include around 335,000 medical-surgical products, such as surgical and procedural kits, gloves, protective apparel, urological and incontinence care items, wound care products, and consumable lab and diagnostics products. Medical-surgical supplies specifically account for 45% of Medline's revenue.AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (MDLN) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market tailwinds. The company, which is expected to have completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2025, is focusing on expanding its market presence and optimizing its operations.
Here are key drivers of future revenue growth for Medline:
- Product Portfolio Expansion and Innovation: Medline is actively growing its product offerings through both organic innovation and strategic acquisitions. The company launched 268 new products over the last three years and has expanded its portfolio through significant acquisitions, such as Ecolab Inc.'s global surgical solutions business in August 2024, which integrated sterile drape solutions and fluid temperature-management systems. Another key acquisition was United MedCo in January 2024, which bolstered Medline's health plans segment. These moves are designed to enhance its product offerings and introduce innovative solutions to the healthcare market.
- Enhanced Supply Chain Resilience and Efficiency: Medline has made substantial investments, totaling nearly $3 billion since 2018, in its Healthcare Resilience Initiative. These investments target new distribution centers, enhanced manufacturing capabilities, and significant IT upgrades to improve supply chain visibility and robustness. The company also leverages advanced technologies, including a 2024 partnership with Microsoft for AI-generated insights in inventory management. These efforts are expected to improve operational efficiency and ensure dependable delivery of medical supplies.
- Expansion of Prime Vendor Relationships: A significant growth driver for Medline is its Prime Vendor program, which secures long-term agreements with healthcare organizations, positioning Medline as their primary consolidated logistics partner. This strategy is crucial for customer retention and is expected to drive the adoption of Medline Brand products, contributing to increased sales volumes. New prime vendor wins are specifically identified as a factor for projected revenue growth.
- Growth in the Health Plans Business: Medline is strategically expanding its health plans segment to access new customer demographics and diversify its revenue streams. The acquisition of United MedCo in January 2024 significantly enhanced Medline's capabilities as a supplemental benefits administrator, targeting key insurance markets such as Medicare Advantage, Managed Medicaid, and commercial insurance. This expansion aims to meet the evolving needs of health plans and their members.
- International Market Expansion: Medline is focused on geographical expansion to bolster its global market presence. With operations in over 100 countries, the international market represents a substantial addressable opportunity. The company is undertaking strategic investments like the construction of a new warehouse near Madrid, Spain, expected to be operational by summer 2025, to enhance service delivery and increase its global footprint.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Medline is preparing for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol "MDLN", with pricing expected around December 16, 2025.
- The company plans to offer 179 million shares at an anticipated price range of $26 to $30 per share, aiming to raise up to $5.37 billion.
- The IPO could value Medline at up to $55.3 billion, and the Mills family, the founders, may acquire up to $250 million of shares in the offering.
Inbound Investments
- In June 2021, a consortium of private equity firms, including Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, acquired a majority stake in Medline in a leveraged buyout.
- This transaction was valued at over $30 billion, or as much as $34 billion including debt, with a $17 billion equity check.
- Following the investment, Medline remained a privately held, family-led company, with the Mills family retaining the largest single shareholder position.
Outbound Investments
- Since its acquisition by private equity firms in 2021, Medline has expanded through acquisitions, including Ecolab's surgical solutions unit for $905 million in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Medline planned to invest an additional $500 million in 2021, which included opening seven medical-grade distribution centers.
- The company has invested $1.6 billion into its distribution network since the 2021 private equity acquisition.
- Medline expects tariff-related costs of $325 million to $375 million in fiscal year 2025 and a further $150 million to $200 million in 2026.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 220.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 101.9 |
| Rev LTM | 163,230 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,807 |
| FCF LTM | 5,206 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,876 |
| CFO LTM | 6,867 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,631 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 101.9 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.3 |
| P/E | 27.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA207964 | READYPREP CHG | chlorhexidine gluconate | cloth | 11202018 | |||||
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 5,079,306 | 144,091,276 | 2,521,676,655 | Form | |
| 2 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | HFCP X (Parallel - A), L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 547,305 | 15,526,112 | 262,937,064 | Form | |
| 3 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | Mend Partners II, L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 461,760 | 13,099,346 | 136,342,589 | Form | |
| 4 | Gic, Private Ltd | Hux Investment Pte. Ltd. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 10,204,351 | 289,480,090 | 2,597,272,387 | Form | |
| 5 | Gic, Private Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12222025 | 29.00 | 12,586,206 | 364,999,974 | 789,999,962 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.