Medline (MDLN)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $41.46 | Market Cap: $33.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Medline (MDLN)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $41.46Market Cap: $33.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Key risksMDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
| Key risksMDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Initial Post-IPO Price Stabilization After Strong Debut.
Medline's stock experienced a significant surge on its IPO day, closing at $41.00 on December 17, 2025, a 41.38% increase from its $29.00 offering price. Following this enthusiastic market debut, it is common for a newly public company's stock to stabilize around its initial post-IPO trading range as market sentiment normalizes and investors evaluate its long-term fundamentals. The stock's price near $41.07 as of March 12, 2026, reflects this period of stabilization after the initial excitement.
2. Mixed Q4 2025 Earnings Performance Coupled with Tariff Headwinds.
Medline's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on February 25, 2026, presented a mixed financial picture. While the company achieved strong net sales of $7.8 billion, an increase of 14.8% year-over-year, its net income decreased by 37.7% to $180 million. Adjusted EBITDA remained largely flat, primarily due to higher costs of goods sold and increased operating expenses, including a significant impact from tariffs. Medline also forecast a net tariff impact of approximately $490 million for 2026, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins that likely tempered investor optimism despite solid sales growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -8.7% | 10.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.2% | 10.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.1% | 10.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.4% | 10.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDLN Return | - | - | - | - | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 49% | 2% | 179% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDLN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 100% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 60% | 55% | 72% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDLN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -4% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -7% | -11% | -4% | -0% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCK, CAH, COR, JNJ, MDT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MDLN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MCK, CAH, COR, JNJ, MDT
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Medline (MDLN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Amazon for medical supplies.
2. Grainger for the healthcare industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Medical-Surgical Products: A vast portfolio of consumable medical products, including surgical and procedural kits, gloves, protective apparel, urological and incontinence care, wound care, and consumable lab and diagnostics products.
- Supply Chain Solutions: Comprehensive services that optimize and manage the distribution and logistics of medical-surgical products for healthcare providers.
- Prime Vendor Services: Long-term agreements where Medline acts as the consolidated distributor and logistics provider for customers' complete medical-surgical product needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (MDLN) primarily sells its medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions to other companies and organizations within the healthcare sector.
The provided background information does not name specific major customer companies. Instead, it describes the broad categories of healthcare facilities and points of care that Medline serves:
- Hospitals
- Surgery centers
- Physician offices
- Post-acute facilities
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Jim Boyle, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Boyle has served as Chief Executive Officer of Medline since 2023, having also joined its board of directors in the same year. He began his career at Medline in 1996 as a sales representative in San Antonio, Texas. Prior to his current role, he held positions as a Sales Trainer, Senior Account Manager, Division Vice President, and Senior Vice President. From 2018 to 2023, Mr. Boyle was an Executive Vice President, responsible for the strategic direction and execution of commercial functions across all healthcare sales divisions, as well as operations and logistics.
Mike Drazin, Chief Financial Officer
Mike Drazin joined Medline as Chief Financial Officer in 2018. Before Medline, he was Vice President, Global FP&A and Investor Relations at Illinois Tool Works Inc. from 2016 to 2018, and also served as Vice President, Global Financial Planning & Analysis from 2014 to 2018. From 2008 to 2014, he was a Group Controller at Illinois Tool Works Inc. Earlier in his career, Mr. Drazin held several financial leadership roles, including Group Controller at Click Commerce, Inc., Chief Financial Officer at Presutti Laboratories, Controller at CloudShield Technologies, Inc., Chief Financial Officer at Silicon Valley Internet Capital, and Senior Auditor at Arthur Anderson LLP.
Steve Miller, Chief Operating Officer
Steve Miller has served as Medline's Chief Operating Officer since January 1, 2025. He joined Medline in 2022 as Executive Vice President, Supply Chain, a role he held through 2024. Before joining Medline, Mr. Miller was Senior Vice President, Fulfillment Operations (2020-2022) and Vice President, People (U.S. Supply Chain) (2018-2020) at Walmart. He also held various supply chain, manufacturing operations, corporate strategy, and human resources positions at The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company and Kimberly-Clark.
Amanda Laabs, Chief Product Officer
Amanda Laabs was appointed Chief Product Officer effective January 1, 2025. She joined Medline in 2006, initially in the medical textiles division. Ms. Laabs has advanced through a series of product management leadership roles, most recently serving as Executive Vice President, Medline Brand from 2023 until January 2025. Her previous roles include leading Medline's surgical drapes and gowns division and personal protection division, and managing the Dynacor kitting division, which involved integrating the acquired Centurion Medical Products company.
Billy Abrams, Executive Vice President, Supply Chain Solutions
Billy Abrams has been the Executive Vice President, Supply Chain Solutions since 2023. He joined Medline in 2009, holding positions such as Vice President of Preferred Healthcare, Executive Vice President of Real Estate & Assets, and President of the Distributed Products Division. While at Medline, he also served as President of Suture Express from 2019 to 2021. Prior to Medline, Mr. Abrams was Founding Principal at Hazel Ravine Partners, LLC from 2004 to 2008, and Chief Executive Officer at InfoPlus Corporation from 2001 to 2003.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Supply Chain Disruptions and Reliance on Third-Party Suppliers: Medline sources products from over 500 global partners for its Medline Brand segment and offers approximately 145,000 third-party products through its Supply Chain Solutions segment. Any significant disruption to this extensive global supply chain due to geopolitical events, natural disasters, trade restrictions, or issues with key suppliers could severely impact Medline's ability to procure and deliver products, affecting sales and customer relationships.
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Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: Despite being the largest provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions, Medline operates in a competitive market. The company's strategy relies on driving cost savings for Prime Vendor customers and offering Medline Brand products at a cost-effective price. Competitors could offer more aggressive pricing or innovative solutions, potentially eroding Medline's market share, profitability, or the effectiveness of its Prime Vendor model and the associated "flywheel effect" that supports Medline Brand adoption.
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Dependence on the "Prime Vendor" Model and Ability to Maintain Customer Relationships: The "Prime Vendor" relationships are central to Medline's strategy, involving long-term agreements for consolidated distribution and logistics. A risk exists if Medline struggles to secure new Prime Vendor relationships, if existing Prime Vendor customers choose not to renew their agreements, or if they shift purchasing away from Medline Brand products, which offer higher margins. This could undermine a core part of their growth strategy and profitability drivers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (MDLN) operates in two main addressable markets: medical-surgical products and healthcare supply chain solutions.For its medical-surgical products, Medline operates in an estimated global total addressable market of $375 billion. This market is further broken down into approximately $175 billion in the United States and about $200 billion outside the U.S..
For its supply chain solutions, the global healthcare supply chain management market size was valued at USD 3.93 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 11.35 billion by 2034. In North America, this market was valued at USD 1.91 billion in 2025, with the U.S. market specifically valued at USD 1.92 billion by 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medline (MDLN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic initiatives and sustained market demand. Key drivers include: * Expansion of Customer Base and Prime Vendor Relationships: Medline anticipates continued growth by securing new customer signings, particularly through its Prime Vendor model. The company reported $2.4 billion in new customer signings in 2025 and is targeting an additional $1 billion in new Prime Vendor signings for 2026. This strategy, coupled with a high retention rate for existing Prime Vendor customers, is expected to lead to the consolidation of med-surg spend with Medline. * Increased Penetration of Medline Brand Products: A significant driver involves increasing the adoption of Medline Brand products. This includes existing customers converting to Medline Brand offerings, which often provide superior value, and a concerted effort to boost brand penetration among both Prime Vendor and non-Prime Vendor customers. * New Product Development and Portfolio Expansion: Medline is investing in product innovation to sustain its growth trajectory. The company has expanded its Medline Brand product portfolio with approximately 190,000 products, including recent innovations such as the ComfortTemp patient warming system. * Channel Expansion and Strategic Investments: The company plans to grow by expanding into new care settings and channels, notably the non-acute space and facilities not affiliated with hospital systems. Strategic investments in automation and infrastructure are crucial to supporting this expansion and enhancing operational efficiency. * Selective Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Medline intends to pursue selective M&A opportunities to further extend its market reach and product lines. Recent examples, such as the contributions from the Coloplast Skincare and Microtek Surgical Solutions acquisitions, demonstrate the role M&A plays in its growth strategy.AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Expenditures
- Medline maintains and invests in an expansive network of 69 global distribution facilities, spanning over 29 million square feet of warehouse space, and an owned fleet of over 2,000 MedTrans trucks to support its supply chain solutions and ensure next-day delivery to 95% of its U.S. customers.
- The company operates 33 manufacturing facilities for its Medline Brand products, indicating ongoing capital allocation towards production capabilities.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to support strategic objectives such as continuing channel expansion, developing new products, and scaling its international footprint.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MDLN.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 223.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 83.3 |
| Rev LTM | 169,433 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,006 |
| FCF LTM | 5,502 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,723 |
| CFO LTM | 7,285 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,486 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 83.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 26.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA207964 | READYPREP CHG | chlorhexidine gluconate | cloth | 11202018 | |||||
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -3.6% | -11.2% | -14.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -11.2% | -14.6% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -3.6% | -11.2% | -14.6% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 5,079,306 | 144,091,276 | 2,521,676,655 | Form | |
| 2 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | HFCP X (Parallel - A), L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 547,305 | 15,526,112 | 262,937,064 | Form | |
| 3 | Hellman, & Friedman Capital Partners X (parallel), Lp | Mend Partners II, L.P. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 461,760 | 13,099,346 | 136,342,589 | Form | |
| 4 | Gic, Private Ltd | Hux Investment Pte. Ltd. | Sell | 12222025 | 28.37 | 10,204,351 | 289,480,090 | 2,597,272,387 | Form | |
| 5 | Gic, Private Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12222025 | 29.00 | 12,586,206 | 364,999,974 | 789,999,962 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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