Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more.
Key risks
MDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Diabetes Management, Show more.
1 Key risks
MDLN key risks include [1] a substantial debt load from its leveraged buyout, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDLN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Medline (MDLN) recently became a publicly traded company, with its shares beginning to trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on December 17, 2025. Therefore, the stock movement for the period from August 31, 2025, to today largely reflects its initial public offering and subsequent trading in its first few days as a public entity.

1. Medline's Initial Public Offering (IPO) on December 17, 2025: Medline debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MDLN, pricing its upsized initial public offering at $29.00 per share. This event marked its transition from a privately held company to a public one, making it the biggest global IPO of 2025.

2. Strong Investor Demand and Opening Price Surge: The stock opened at $35 per share, nearly 21% above its IPO price. By the close of trading on its debut day, Medline stock had risen 41.3% from its IPO price to $41, demonstrating significant investor interest.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDLN Return
Peers Return14%17%23%17%10%48%212%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDLN Win Rate 
Peers Win Rate50%53%60%60%55%72% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDLN Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-6%-7%-11%-4%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCK, CAH, COR, JNJ, MDT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MDLN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Medline (MDLN)

Better Bets than Medline (MDLN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDLN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Medline

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDLNMCKCAHCORJNJMDTMedian
NameMedline McKesson Cardinal.Cencora Johnson .Medtronic 
Mkt Price41.65820.25202.95340.93206.3798.63204.66
Mkt Cap-101.748.366.1497.0126.4101.7
Rev LTM27,173387,094222,578321,33392,14934,758157,364
Op Inc LTM2,2825,4712,3223,93424,1466,7194,702
FCF LTM-6,0081,8503,20718,6795,2065,206
FCF 3Y Avg-4,8762,4883,21917,8144,9174,876
CFO LTM-6,8672,3973,87524,2047,1136,867
CFO 3Y Avg-5,6313,0013,75723,2096,6265,631

Growth & Margins

MDLNMCKCAHCORJNJMDTMedian
NameMedline McKesson Cardinal.Cencora Johnson .Medtronic 
Rev Chg LTM-17.2%-1.9%9.3%5.1%5.3%5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.6%7.3%10.4%6.1%4.1%7.3%
Rev Chg Q15.0%10.1%0.5%5.9%6.8%6.6%6.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%2.5%0.1%1.5%1.7%1.6%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM8.4%1.4%1.0%1.2%26.2%19.3%4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.4%1.0%1.1%26.4%18.6%1.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.1%1.7%-0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.8%1.1%1.2%26.3%20.5%1.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.7%1.4%1.3%26.4%19.9%1.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.6%0.8%1.0%20.3%15.0%1.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.4%1.1%1.1%20.3%14.8%1.4%

Valuation

MDLNMCKCAHCORJNJMDTMedian
NameMedline McKesson Cardinal.Cencora Johnson .Medtronic 
Mkt Cap-101.748.366.1497.0126.4101.7
P/S-0.30.20.25.43.60.3
P/EBIT-18.820.924.715.319.719.7
P/E-25.230.942.519.826.526.5
P/CFO-14.820.217.120.517.817.8
Total Yield-4.3%4.3%3.0%7.5%6.6%4.3%
Dividend Yield-0.4%1.0%0.7%2.5%2.9%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.8%9.2%7.2%4.4%4.3%6.8%
D/E-0.10.20.10.10.20.1
Net D/E-0.10.10.00.10.20.1

Returns

MDLNMCKCAHCORJNJMDTMedian
NameMedline McKesson Cardinal.Cencora Johnson .Medtronic 
1M Rtn--3.3%-2.4%-5.8%1.6%-0.7%-2.4%
3M Rtn-17.6%36.1%17.7%17.9%3.7%17.7%
6M Rtn-14.0%25.0%16.5%39.7%16.1%16.5%
12M Rtn-42.1%74.0%50.9%47.2%25.7%47.2%
3Y Rtn-118.5%168.7%107.0%27.2%39.9%107.0%
1M Excs Rtn--6.6%-5.1%-8.4%-1.0%-4.6%-5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-15.7%36.0%16.1%17.1%2.1%16.1%
6M Excs Rtn-0.4%11.1%3.3%24.8%3.1%3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-33.4%64.8%38.0%32.3%12.2%33.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.2%102.6%41.0%-45.3%-32.8%41.0%

Financials

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
930202511042025S-1/A 9/27/2025
1231202410282025S-1 12/31/2024
123120231312025DRS/A 12/31/2023