Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB)
Market Price (6/9/2026): $15.04 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB)
Market Price (6/9/2026): $15.04Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 98% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Key risksMCHB key risks include [1] integration challenges and costs from its recent merger and [2] a concentrated dependence on Western US regional economies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 98% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Key risksMCHB key risks include [1] integration challenges and costs from its recent merger and [2] a concentrated dependence on Western US regional economies. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Analyst Coverage and Price Targets: Mechanics Bancorp received favorable analyst attention, notably with Raymond James initiating coverage on May 28, 2026, with an "Outperform" rating and a $17.00 price target. Similarly, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a $17.00 price target on April 10, 2026. The average analyst price target for MCHB is $16.63, representing a forecasted upside of 15.45% from the closing price of $14.40 on June 1, 2026.
2. Improvement in Net Interest Margin: Despite reporting a miss on overall diluted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for Q1 2026, the company demonstrated a significant operational improvement in its net interest margin. Mechanics Bancorp's net interest margin increased to 3.61% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.50% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This enhancement was primarily driven by a lower cost of deposits, influenced by "Fed rate cuts" (a macroeconomic factor) and the runoff of higher-cost certificates of deposit (a company-specific efficiency).
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.6% change in MCHB stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.23 | 15.03 | 13.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 246 | 472 | 92.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.1% | 30.3% | 20.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 0.0 | 0.0 | -51.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCHB | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 32.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.6% | 47.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.7% change in MCHB stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.21 | 15.03 | 5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 246 | 472 | 92.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.1% | 30.3% | 20.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 0.0 | 0.0 | -54.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCHB | 5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.7% | 52.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCHB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 26.9% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.6% | 47.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCHB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 83.8% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 71.7% | 47.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCHB Return | - | - | - | - | 16% | 10% | 28% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -17% | 3% | 21% | 9% | 9% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCHB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 75% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 42% | 52% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCHB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -34% | -58% | -21% | -29% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EWBC, ZION, COLB, WAL, BOH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MCHB has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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MCHB has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB)
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A regional full-service bank for the Western US, like a smaller Wells Fargo.
Think of it as a Western US version of US Bank, serving both consumers and businesses.
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C.J. Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Johnson has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Mechanics Bank since January 2025, having served in an interim capacity since February 2024. He is also a Partner of Ford Financial Fund, which has been the majority owner of Mechanics Bank since 2015. Previously, he held the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Mechanics Bank. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial services leadership, Mr. Johnson previously served as Senior Vice President and Director of Financial Planning at Santa Barbara Bank & Trust, which he joined in 2010. Before that, he was an Associate at Flexpoint Ford, a private equity firm specializing in financial services investments. He began his career as an investment banking Analyst at Credit Suisse. Mr. Johnson has been instrumental in executing Ford Financial Fund's acquisition strategy, contributing to Mechanics Bank's growth from $3 billion in assets in 2015 to nearly $17 billion. He also chairs the Board of Directors of Richmond Housing Renovation, LLC, a non-profit organization. Mr. Johnson holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Michigan.
Nathan Duda, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Duda was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Mechanics Bancorp on September 2, 2025. He has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Mechanics Bank since June 2016. Prior to becoming CFO, he was the Chief Accounting Officer for Mechanics Bank. Before joining Mechanics Bank, Mr. Duda was Chief Accounting Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance, at Banc of California. His career also includes senior positions at Union Bank, Santa Barbara Bank & Trust, OneWest Bank, and Affinity Bank. Mr. Duda is a licensed CPA and holds a degree in Business Economics from the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Carl B. Webb, Executive Chairman of the Board
Mr. Webb serves as Executive Chairman of Mechanics Bancorp and has been Chairman of the Board for Mechanics Bank since 2015. He is also the Managing Partner of the Ford Financial Funds, the majority owner of Mechanics Bank, and brings over 40 years of banking industry experience. Mr. Webb previously held the position of Chief Executive Officer of Pacific Capital Bancorp, a portfolio company of the Ford Financial Fund. From 1994 to 2002, he was President, Chief Operating Officer, and a Director of Golden State Bancorp and California Federal Bank, FSB. Prior to that, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer of First Gibraltar Bank, FSB from its inception in 1988 until its sale in 1994. He began his tenure with Ford Bank Group, Inc. as President of First National Bank Lubbock in 1983. Mr. Webb currently serves as a Director of Hilltop Holdings Inc. and Prologis, Inc. He earned a B.B.A. degree from West Texas A&M University and is an alumnus of the Southwestern Graduate School of Banking at Southern Methodist University.
Chris Pierce, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Pierce was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer of Mechanics Bank in December 2019, having joined the Bank in 2016 as Chief Administrative Officer. He has over 25 years of banking experience, starting his career as a consultant for a regional firm specializing in core data processing conversions and bank migrations, where he completed more than 140 such projects. His prior roles include positions with California Republic Bank (as Chief Administrative Officer), Western Financial Bank, and Wachovia Bank.
Tony Kallingal, Executive Vice President, Chief Banking Officer
Mr. Kallingal was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer of Mechanics Bank in January 2021. He previously served as Head of Business Banking. With over 20 years of experience, Mr. Kallingal is an accomplished executive in retail and commercial banking, with expertise spanning branch strategy, commercial banking, treasury management, and small-business banking. He is a graduate of Saint Mary's College and the Pacific Coast Banking School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to the business for Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB):
- Interest Rate Risk: Mechanics Bancorp faces substantial exposure to fluctuations in interest rates, which can significantly impact its net interest income and the overall value of its portfolio. Both increases and decreases in interest rates have the potential to adversely affect the company's financial performance.
- Integration Risks from Recent Merger: The company recently completed a major acquisition of HomeStreet Bank on September 2, 2025. This merger introduces significant integration risks and costs, including the challenge of combining operations, systems, and corporate cultures, as well as managing the expectations and maintaining the loyalty of customers from both legacy institutions during the transition.
- Dependence on Regional Economies: Mechanics Bancorp's operations are geographically concentrated across the Western United States, specifically in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. This concentration makes the company particularly susceptible to economic downturns or fluctuations within these regional economies, which could disproportionately affect its loan portfolio, deposit base, and potentially lead to increased credit losses and reduced liquidity.
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Addressable Markets for Mechanics Bancorp's Main Products and Services
Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB) operates as the financial holding company for Mechanics Bank, providing a comprehensive suite of banking services in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Its main products and services fall into categories such as retail/consumer banking, commercial/business banking, and wealth management/trust services.
The addressable markets for these services are substantial within the United States and specifically in the Western US regions where the bank primarily operates.
- Regional Banking Market: The overall market size for Regional Banks in the U.S. was approximately $483.8 billion in 2025.
- Retail/Consumer Banking Market: The U.S. retail banking market generated a revenue of $454.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $678.3 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market size at $0.91 trillion in 2026, with a projection to reach $1.11 trillion by 2031. Consumer lending, a significant component of retail banking, had a global market size of $27 trillion and is growing. The U.S. loan market (including consumer loans and mortgages) was valued at $1,123.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $1,872.45 billion by 2030.
- Commercial/Business Banking Market: The U.S. commercial banking market size was estimated at $229 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to $339 billion by 2032. Other reports indicate the U.S. commercial banking market size was $1.6 trillion in 2025 and is projected to be $1.6 trillion in 2026. Specifically, for commercial lending, the North American market is projected to reach a valuation of $2,892.50 billion by 2025.
- Wealth Management and Trust Services Market: The global wealth management market size was valued at $1,636.83 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately $4,893.17 billion by 2034. North America contributed about two-thirds of the global wealth management market revenue in 2022. The Trusts & Estates market in the U.S. was $290.1 billion in 2025. The broader Trust, Fiduciary, and Custody Activities industry has a total addressable market valued at approximately $150 billion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 69.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,733 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 1,061 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 838 |
| CFO LTM | 1,118 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 869 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 34.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 105.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 59.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -2.7% | -2.3% | 1.7% |
| 1/30/2026 | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -3.2% | 9.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.8% | |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 4.5% | 9.0% |
| Max Negative | -2.7% | -3.2% | |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Regional Banks Resources |
| Bank Director |
| Independent Banker |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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