MasterBrand (MBC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.55 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
MasterBrand (MBC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.55Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MBC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 9.1% decline in MasterBrand (MBC) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. MasterBrand reported disappointing Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025. The company's net sales decreased by 2.7% year-over-year to $698.9 million, and net income fell by 37.8% to $18.1 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.14, significantly below analyst expectations of $0.52, representing a 36.54% negative surprise and contributing to an aftermarket stock decline. Adjusted EBITDA also declined by 13.3% to $90.6 million, with margins contracting by 160 basis points.
2. The company highlighted new Section 232 lumber tariffs as a significant headwind during its Third Quarter 2025 earnings call. These tariffs, effective October 14, 2025, at 25% and rising to 50% in Q1 2026, are estimated to have an unmitigated exposure of 7-8% of 2025 sales, with an expected Q4 unmitigated impact of $20 million to $25 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MBC Return | - | - | - | 97% | -2% | -23% | 50% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 55% | -11% | 62% | 9% | 13% | 285% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MBC Win Rate | - | - | 75% | 42% | 50% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 63% | 43% | 63% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MBC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -4% | -8% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -3% | -37% | -8% | -12% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MBC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 464 days |
Compare to WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT
In The Past
MasterBrand's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/13/2023. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MBC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MasterBrand
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,872 |
| Op Inc LTM | 445 |
| FCF LTM | 319 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 416 |
| CFO LTM | 465 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 546 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 26.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 12312021 | 11222022 | 10-12B/A 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |