MediaAlpha (MAX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.77 | Market Cap: $779.6 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
MediaAlpha (MAX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.77Market Cap: $779.6 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MAX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting the movement in MediaAlpha (MAX) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: MediaAlpha reported robust third-quarter results on October 29, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $306.51 million, an 18.3% increase year-over-year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.26 also beat estimates by 23.81%. This strong performance, particularly driven by its Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance vertical, likely contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. Significant Share Repurchase Programs: On September 4, 2025, MediaAlpha announced a private stock repurchase of 3,234,894 shares for approximately $32.9 million, at a price of $10.17 per share. Subsequently, following the strong Q3 results on October 29, 2025, the Board of Directors authorized an additional $50 million share repurchase program. These actions demonstrate management's confidence in the company's valuation and aim to return value to shareholders, often signaling a positive outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAX Return | - | -60% | -36% | 12% | 1% | 13% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 24% | -25% | 25% | 3% | 7% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAX Win Rate | 100% | 25% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 35% | 18% | 35% | 27% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAX Max Drawdown | - | -63% | -49% | -46% | -6% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -28% | -8% | -17% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1096.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 148 days |
Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL
In The Past
MediaAlpha's stock fell -91.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -91.6% loss requires a 1096.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is MediaAlpha Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| MediaAlpha (MAX) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why MediaAlpha Stock Moved: MAX Stock Has Gained 37% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| MAX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: TLRY, TGNA, MLNK | Losers: OMI, AI, MAX | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MAX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MediaAlpha
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,803 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2 |
| FCF LTM | 118 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 122 |
| CFO LTM | 253 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 226 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -13.4 |
| P/E | -286.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |