Tearsheet

MediaAlpha (MAX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.71 | Market Cap: $719.6 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

MediaAlpha (MAX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.71
Market Cap: $719.6 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Marketplaces.
  Key risks
MAX key risks include [1] an ongoing FTC investigation into its marketing and data practices that has resulted in a preliminary settlement demand and [2] a heavy reliance on the Property & Casualty insurance vertical for revenue.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 14%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Marketplaces.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 49x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3%
6 Key risks
MAX key risks include [1] an ongoing FTC investigation into its marketing and data practices that has resulted in a preliminary settlement demand and [2] a heavy reliance on the Property & Casualty insurance vertical for revenue.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MAX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for MediaAlpha (MAX) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, falls within a future timeframe. While I cannot predict future stock performance or provide real-time information for events that have not yet occurred, the search results provide some forward-looking statements, analyst expectations, and past events within the 2025 calendar year that could influence sentiment. Based on the available information, here are some key points that would likely drive stock movement for MediaAlpha during this approximate period:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Driven by Property & Casualty Segment: MediaAlpha reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025. The company announced an EPS of $0.26, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.21. Quarterly revenue also rose significantly, up 18.3% year-over-year to $306.51 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $283.30 million. This strong performance was primarily driven by continued growth in its Property & Casualty (P&C) insurance vertical, as carrier demand intensified and its partner base expanded.

2. New $50 Million Share Repurchase Program Authorization: Alongside its strong Q3 2025 earnings, MediaAlpha's Board of Directors authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program. This indicates management's confidence in the company's valuation and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which can positively influence stock price. Additionally, the company had already repurchased 3,234,894 shares of its Class A common stock for approximately $32.9 million in a privately negotiated transaction on September 4, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MAX Return-60%-36%12%1%15%
Peers Return-38%-35%25%73%-29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MAX Win Rate100%25%42%50%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate55%40%38%57%65%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MAX Max Drawdown-63%-49%-46%-6%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-61%-32%-19%-43% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QNST, EVER, SLQT, GOCO, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMAXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1096.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven41 days148 days

Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL


In The Past

MediaAlpha's stock fell -91.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -91.6% loss requires a 1096.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MediaAlpha (MAX)

Better Bets than MediaAlpha (MAX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MAX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MediaAlpha

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MAXQNSTEVERSLQTGOCOPGRMedian
NameMediaAlp.QuinStre.EverQuoteSelectQu.GoHealth Progress. 
Mkt Price12.7114.7526.841.372.50227.2713.73
Mkt Cap0.70.81.00.30.0144.80.8
Rev LTM1,1231,1006451,56373885,1661,112
Op Inc LTM31126040-40-31
FCF LTM8710584-29-7917,04985
FCF 3Y Avg442638-8-2413,42032
CFO LTM8811889-17-6817,38688
CFO 3Y Avg4441423-1213,69042

Growth & Margins

MAXQNSTEVERSLQTGOCOPGRMedian
NameMediaAlp.QuinStre.EverQuoteSelectQu.GoHealth Progress. 
Rev Chg LTM64.9%43.1%57.8%13.2%7.6%18.4%30.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg39.0%26.4%20.7%27.1%-3.4%20.6%23.5%
Rev Chg Q18.3%2.4%20.3%12.5%-71.1%14.2%13.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.4%0.6%4.8%2.4%-10.2%3.4%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM2.8%1.1%9.3%2.5%-5.5%-2.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.8%-2.0%1.1%3.5%-19.2%--1.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.5%0.5%-1.9%-5.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.8%10.7%13.7%-1.1%-9.2%20.4%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.1%3.8%7.6%0.3%-1.6%18.7%4.4%
FCF/Rev LTM7.8%9.6%13.0%-1.9%-10.7%20.0%8.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.0%1.8%6.6%-0.5%-3.5%18.4%3.4%

Valuation

MAXQNSTEVERSLQTGOCOPGRMedian
NameMediaAlp.QuinStre.EverQuoteSelectQu.GoHealth Progress. 
Mkt Cap0.70.81.00.30.0144.80.8
P/S0.60.81.30.20.01.70.7
P/EBIT49.073.313.83.2-0.1-13.8
P/E-563.783.615.45.9-0.213.59.7
P/CFO7.47.59.4-21.8-0.58.37.4
Total Yield-0.2%1.2%6.5%16.9%-563.2%9.4%3.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%2.5%3.7%-2.6%-35.3%-2.5%
D/E0.20.00.01.217.5-0.2
Net D/E0.2-0.1-0.21.116.5-0.2

Returns

MAXQNSTEVERSLQTGOCOPGRMedian
NameMediaAlp.QuinStre.EverQuoteSelectQu.GoHealth Progress. 
1M Rtn6.0%9.7%7.8%-6.2%3.3%0.9%4.7%
3M Rtn-3.3%-10.2%10.6%-32.8%-47.9%-6.7%-8.4%
6M Rtn21.5%-2.4%9.5%-39.1%-55.4%-12.6%-7.5%
12M Rtn10.0%-33.7%54.7%-59.1%-80.2%-6.3%-20.0%
3Y Rtn34.5%16.1%152.3%110.1%-82.7%85.1%59.8%
1M Excs Rtn5.3%9.0%7.1%-6.9%2.6%0.1%3.9%
3M Excs Rtn-6.6%-14.7%6.6%-34.8%-49.9%-7.4%-11.1%
6M Excs Rtn9.1%-14.8%-2.9%-51.5%-67.7%-25.0%-19.9%
12M Excs Rtn7.3%-44.4%37.5%-61.8%-88.0%-19.0%-31.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-44.1%-52.4%69.1%55.0%-152.9%11.7%-16.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Health insurance186187176140104
Property & casualty insurance164224418398219
Life insurance2427293033
Other1321231751
Total388459645585408


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,668,227
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-14.0%
Average Daily Volume519,431
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.21
Basic Shares Quantity56,617,837
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202510.0%21.4%13.5%
8/6/202510.0%1.0%19.8%
2/24/2025-18.5%-21.2%-11.9%
10/30/2024-17.4%-43.9%-39.1%
7/31/202413.1%8.7%18.0%
5/1/20244.8%-5.1%-15.6%
2/20/202424.7%35.8%27.3%
11/1/2023-5.2%-6.9%-0.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11109
# Negative91011
Median Positive10.0%6.9%18.0%
Median Negative-5.2%-12.4%-15.6%
Max Positive29.6%35.8%49.9%
Max Negative-18.5%-43.9%-39.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021