Lincoln International (LCLN)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $22.21 | Market Cap: $740.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Lincoln International (LCLN)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $22.21Market Cap: $740.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Key risksLCLN key risks include [1] the inability to retain key talent possessing critical client relationships and [2] challenges in successfully integrating strategic acquisitions like MarshBerry to realize anticipated synergies. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Key risksLCLN key risks include [1] the inability to retain key talent possessing critical client relationships and [2] challenges in successfully integrating strategic acquisitions like MarshBerry to realize anticipated synergies. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Lincoln International (LCLN) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/20/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong IPO Pricing and Initial Market Demand: Lincoln International priced its initial public offering at $20.00 per share, which was the high end of its anticipated range, on May 19, 2026, indicating robust investor demand. When trading commenced on May 20, 2026, the stock opened at $22.51 and closed at $22.52, achieving an initial gain of approximately 12.6% from its IPO price. Following this initial upward movement, the stock has largely traded within a relatively stable range.
2. Solid Financial Performance and Business Model: Lincoln International is a profitable global independent investment banking advisory firm focusing on private capital markets, with a diversified platform that includes M&A advisory, capital advisory, private funds advisory, and valuations services. The company demonstrated strong financial performance, reporting net income of $192.11 million on revenue of $809.4 million for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 (fiscal year 2026). This established profitability and broad service offering contribute to investor confidence and the stock's stability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LCLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.2% | 17.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LCLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -1.1% | 17.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LCLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.2% | 17.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LCLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 72.8% | 17.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LCLN Return | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 58% | -16% | 42% | 67% | 4% | -6% | 207% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LCLN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 60% | 73% | 62% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LCLN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -39% | -21% | -13% | -38% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HLI, JEF, PIPR, EVR, LAZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
LCLN has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
LCLN has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lincoln International (LCLN)
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Goldman Sachs for private equity and private companies.
McKinsey for private company financial deals.
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- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: Advising clients on the sale, acquisition, or strategic combinations of businesses.
- Capital Advisory: Guiding clients through raising debt, growth capital, or minority equity, and providing restructuring services.
- Private Funds Advisory: Assisting private equity firms with fundraises, continuation vehicles, and co-investment strategies.
- Strategic Consulting & Networking: Offering strategic advice, executive peer networking, and board advisory services.
- Portfolio Valuations: Providing independent valuations of investment portfolios for reporting and strategic purposes.
- Transaction Opinions & Board Advisory: Delivering fairness opinions and offering independent advice to boards of directors on transactions.
- Disputes Advisory: Supplying financial and valuation expertise in legal or commercial disputes.
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Major Customers of Lincoln International (LCLN)
Lincoln International primarily serves other companies and institutional investors, not individuals. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories include:
- Private equity investors
- Private credit investors
- Private company business owners
- Other senior executives (representing their respective firms/companies)
- Insurance brokerage firms (through its MarshBerry acquisition)
- Wealth and retirement sectors (through its MarshBerry acquisition)
As an investment banking advisory firm, Lincoln International serves a broad range of clients within these categories, rather than having a few named major customers that can be identified with public symbols. The company advises these entities on various transactions, capital raising, and valuations.
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Robert Brown, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Brown joined Lincoln International as its seventh employee shortly after its founding in 1996 and has been instrumental in building the firm's global footprint and culture, helping to scale it into a global organization with over 1,000 people. He possesses nearly 30 years of experience advising private equity groups, privately owned businesses, and large public companies on divestitures, acquisitions, and other strategic initiatives. Brown played a key role in starting Lincoln's industrials and consumer practices and led its business services practice for more than a decade. Prior to joining Lincoln, he held management positions in the investment banking subsidiary and Transaction Services group at Price Waterhouse. He serves on the board of UNICEF USA and the Dean's Business Council for the Gies School of Business at the University of Illinois.
Ted Heidloff, Chief Financial Officer
As Global Chief Financial Officer, Ted Heidloff is responsible for all aspects of Lincoln International's accounting, forecasting, tax, and treasury operations. He joined Lincoln International in August 2018 and brings over 20 years of diverse global finance and leadership experience from various SEC registrants. Before his tenure at Lincoln International, Heidloff was the Global Controller for Cushman & Wakefield, a global real estate services firm, and served as Controller and Chief Accounting Officer for Walgreens. He is a Certified Public Accountant.
Lawrence (Jim) Lawson, Chairman
Lawrence (Jim) Lawson co-founded Lincoln International in 1996 and, as Chairman, drives the firm's global strategy and new initiatives, recruits senior bankers, and engages with clients. He has over 30 years of experience in marketing and negotiating business sales and acquisitions. Lawson has a background as both an advisor and an entrepreneur/owner; he co-founded a private equity firm that raised a second fund, and also co-founded a manufacturing and servicing company of printing consumables, which was subsequently sold. Earlier in his career, he was a senior officer at Peers & Co., an M&A boutique, and a senior vice president in corporate finance at PaineWebber Incorporated (later acquired by UBS). He began his career in public accounting with KPMG LLP.
Eric Malchow, President & Global Head of M&A
Eric Malchow is the President and Global Head of M&A for Lincoln International. He was one of the co-founders of Lincoln Partners in 1996, which later merged to form Lincoln International. His focus includes coaching highly motivated individuals to achieve exceptional client outcomes and contribute to the firm's growth and success. Prior to co-founding Lincoln Partners, he, along with other partners, spent a significant portion of their careers at PaineWebber.
Robert Barr, Co-Founder & Global Co-CEO
Robert Barr is a Co-Founder and Global Co-CEO of Lincoln International. He co-founded Lincoln Partners in 1996 with Jim Lawson, Ed Hanlon, and Eric Malchow, and has been pivotal in the firm's global expansion and the development of its entrepreneurial culture. Barr has a long history of providing valuable advisory services to Lincoln clients. He and Jim Lawson had worked together since 1981, and prior to establishing Lincoln Partners, the partners largely worked at PaineWebber.
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Key Risks to Lincoln International (LCLN)
Dependence on the Health and Activity of Private Capital Markets: Lincoln International's core business, Investment Banking Advisory, is intrinsically tied to the performance and activity levels within private capital markets, including mergers & acquisitions, capital advisory, and private funds advisory. Downturns, reduced investor appetite, or unfavorable economic conditions in these markets could lead to a significant decrease in transaction volumes and associated advisory fees.
Attraction and Retention of Key Talent: As a professional services firm, Lincoln International's success heavily relies on its experienced professionals, including managing directors and other senior executives, who possess specialized expertise and client relationships. The inability to attract, develop, or retain this critical talent, or the departure of key individuals, could adversely impact client relationships, deal execution capabilities, and overall business performance.
Integration Risks Associated with Acquisitions: The company has a strategy of growth through investments and strategic positioning, including significant acquisitions like MarshBerry. While acquisitions are intended to expand capabilities and market reach, they inherently carry risks related to successful integration of operations, financial systems, and organizational cultures, as well as the ability to realize anticipated synergies and strategic benefits.
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Lincoln International (LCLN) operates within several significant addressable markets globally, primarily focusing on investment banking advisory services within the private capital markets. Key markets include Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) advisory, Private Capital Advisory (encompassing private equity and private credit), Valuations and Opinions, and, through its acquisition of MarshBerry, advisory services for the insurance brokerage and wealth and retirement sectors.
Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory
- The global Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory market is projected to reach over $34.8 billion by 2033, growing from approximately $25.8 billion in 2021. North America holds a commanding 41.75% of the global market in 2025, with the United States being the primary contributor, accounting for 33.38% of the global share.
- Another estimate values the global M&A Advisory Services market between USD 15.0 billion and USD 35.0 billion by 2026.
- The Mergers and Acquisitions Advisory Market globally is expected to be valued at USD 29.28 billion in 2026 and is forecasted to increase to USD 36.56 billion by 2035.
Investment Banking Advisory (Broader Category Including M&A)
- The global Investment Banking market size is expected to grow from $150.49 billion in 2025 to $218.16 billion in 2030.
- Another report estimated the Investment Banking Advisory Services Market at USD 300.0 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 450.0 billion by 2035.
- The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 110.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 214.90 billion by 2034.
Private Credit Advisory
- The global private credit market, which was $3 trillion at the start of 2025, is estimated to grow to approximately $5 trillion by 2029.
- Another source projects the private credit market to expand from USD 1.75 trillion in 2025 and USD 1.96 trillion in 2026 to USD 3.48 trillion by 2031.
- The addressable market for private credit could be more than $30 trillion in the U.S. alone.
Private Equity Advisory
- The global Private Equity Market size is estimated at USD 19.96 trillion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 37.85 trillion by 2031.
- Another estimate for the global private equity market size was USD 593.28 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,458.17 billion by 2035.
- The global private equity market size was valued at USD 6,749.85 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 20,242.70 billion by 2034.
Valuations and Opinions
- The global valuation advisory market was valued at $12.8 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $24.6 billion by 2034.
- Business Valuation, a significant component, accounted for approximately $4.38 billion in global revenues in 2025.
- The global Business Valuation Service Market size is estimated at USD 17,176.9 million in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 20,250.24 million by 2035.
Insurance Brokerage M&A Advisory
- The global insurance brokerage market size was valued at USD 125.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 282.45 billion by 2034.
- Other estimates place the global insurance brokerage market size at USD 335.87 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 695.03 billion by 2033, or USD 327.31 billion in 2025, estimated to grow to USD 572.47 billion by 2031.
Wealth Management Advisory (Including M&A in the sector)
- The global wealth management market size was worth around USD 1636.83 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 4893.17 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. wealth advisory M&A market saw 142 transactions involving RIAs close in Q1 2026, totaling $1.67 trillion in assets.
- MarshBerry predicted over 400 wealth advisory deals will close in 2026, up from 374 in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Lincoln International (LCLN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion into the Financial Services Sector: The acquisition of MarshBerry, closed on October 31, 2025, positions Lincoln International as a leading advisor in the insurance brokerage, wealth, and retirement sectors. This strategic move is expected to drive significant revenue growth by leveraging MarshBerry's expertise and client base within these evolving and growing markets.
- Growth of the Valuations and Opinions Business: Lincoln International has highlighted its valuations business as a "growing, recurring, and non-cyclical" segment. Continued investment in this area, including improving the delivery of portfolio valuations through automation, is expected to enhance its scalability and attractiveness, contributing to consistent revenue expansion.
- Strategic Investment in Senior Talent and Expertise Expansion: The firm's accelerated lateral hiring, onboarding 31 new managing directors since the beginning of 2024 to strengthen sector, product, or geographic expertise, is a key driver. Additionally, a 43% increase in Capital Advisory and Private Funds Advisory managing directors since the end of 2022 indicates a focused effort to grow these specific service lines and expand overall client reach and deal flow.
- Leveraging Proprietary Technology: Investments in technology infrastructure, including a proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) tool for market and client intelligence, are aimed at driving efficiency, optimizing knowledge sharing, and improving service delivery. These technological advancements are expected to enhance client engagement and service competitiveness, indirectly leading to increased revenue, particularly by making services like portfolio valuations more efficient and scalable.
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Share Repurchases
- Lincoln International engaged in significant share repurchases, with annual amounts of approximately $185.22 million in 2021, $164.94 million in 2023, and $173.98 million in 2025.
- For the trailing twelve months (TTM) ending March 2026, the company's share repurchases amounted to $95.55 million.
Share Issuance
- Lincoln International (LCLN) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on May 19, 2026, with 21.05 million shares priced at $20.00 per share.
- The IPO successfully raised $421 million, comprising approximately $412 million from the company's offering of 20.6 million shares and $8.92 million from selling stockholders.
- A portion of the IPO proceeds, approximately $186 million, is intended for the repayment of debt under the Term Loan Credit Facility.
Outbound Investments
- Lincoln International completed the acquisition of MarshBerry on October 31, 2025, a firm specializing in investment banking and consulting for the insurance brokerage and wealth and retirement sectors.
- The company expanded its M&A technology advisory services through the acquisition of Spurrier Capital Partners in 2022 and TCG Corporate Finance in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ending March 2026 were approximately -$1.89 million, with another reported TTM figure of $710,000.00.
- A significant focus of capital investments has been directed towards enhancing technology infrastructure, including the development of a customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, a proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) tool, and automation for portfolio valuations.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,262 |
| Op Inc LTM | 619 |
| FCF LTM | 497 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 505 |
| CFO LTM | 518 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 540 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.2 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.1 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 17.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Diversified Capital Markets Resources |
| International Financing Review (IFR) |
| Financial News |
| Global Capital |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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