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Keros Therapeutics (KROS)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $21.5 | Market Cap: $873.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Keros Therapeutics (KROS)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $21.5
Market Cap: $873.4 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -105%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
 
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37798%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 14%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -105%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37798%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KROS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Keros Therapeutics (KROS) experienced a significant stock movement of 42.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, driven by a series of strategic financial maneuvers and strong financial results. Here are the key points explaining this movement: 1. Announcement of a Significant Capital Return Program. On October 15, 2025, Keros Therapeutics announced a plan to return $375 million in excess capital to its shareholders. This strategic move often signals a company's robust financial health and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value, which can positively influence investor sentiment and stock price.

2. Commencement of a Substantial Issuer Tender Offer. Following the capital return announcement, Keros Therapeutics commenced an issuer tender offer on October 20, 2025, aiming to repurchase up to $194.4 million of its common stock. Such tender offers reduce the total number of outstanding shares, which typically boosts earnings per share and can lead to an appreciation in the stock's value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KROS Return--17%-18%-17%-60%28%-71%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%3%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KROS Win Rate50%42%50%50%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KROS Max Drawdown--59%-56%-44%-61%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKROSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven22 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Keros Therapeutics's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Keros Therapeutics (KROS)

Better Bets than Keros Therapeutics (KROS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KROS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Keros Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KROSVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameKeros Th.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price21.69455.48-2.501.21-12.10
Mkt Cap0.9116.4----58.7
Rev LTM24711,723-0--247
Op Inc LTM45-92--7---7
FCF LTM873,337--7--87
FCF 3Y Avg-592,064--8---8
CFO LTM893,718--7--89
CFO 3Y Avg-572,419--8---8

Growth & Margins

KROSVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameKeros Th.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM37,798.3%10.3%----18,904.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15,245.3%10.5%----7,627.9%
Rev Chg Q3,575.8%11.0%----1,793.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.0%2.7%----4.3%
Op Mgn LTM18.2%-0.8%----8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-658,009.9%26.2%-----328,991.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM17.5%1.0%----9.2%
CFO/Rev LTM36.0%31.7%----33.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-509,222.8%23.1%-----254,599.9%
FCF/Rev LTM35.3%28.5%----31.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-518,809.9%19.8%-----259,395.0%

Valuation

KROSVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameKeros Th.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap0.9116.4----58.7
P/S2.68.5----5.6
P/EBIT9.522.4----16.0
P/E10.027.2----18.6
P/CFO7.226.9----17.1
Total Yield10.0%3.7%----6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.0%2.3%----0.2%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-1.1-0.0-----0.5

Returns

KROSVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameKeros Th.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn33.9%11.2%--65.7%-33.9%
3M Rtn39.1%15.0%----27.1%
6M Rtn44.2%1.1%----22.7%
12M Rtn-69.0%-1.4%-----35.2%
3Y Rtn-57.0%41.8%-----7.6%
1M Excs Rtn37.5%8.1%--36.8%-36.8%
3M Excs Rtn34.4%9.5%----21.9%
6M Excs Rtn29.7%-13.4%----8.2%
12M Excs Rtn-78.7%-13.9%-----46.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-124.9%-24.4%-----74.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment0    
Research collaboration revenue    10
Total0   10


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment 307255269 
Total 307255269 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,781,420
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202515.7%
Average Daily Volume1,258,629
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.39
Basic Shares Quantity40,623,364
Short % of Basic Shares16.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/15/2025-4.0%2.1%15.8%
8/6/2025-7.3%-3.1%8.2%
2/26/20250.6%6.7%0.5%
11/6/20241.1%-5.1%5.3%
8/7/2024-2.2%-4.5%15.7%
5/8/2024-0.7%-10.0%-17.0%
2/28/2024-0.8%-3.1%-2.7%
11/6/2023-0.8%-7.4%1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9814
# Negative10115
Median Positive2.8%14.0%14.8%
Median Negative-2.0%-5.1%-13.9%
Max Positive27.7%42.9%37.8%
Max Negative-12.0%-25.4%-27.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022303202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021309202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd.10172025Sell17.752,284,61240,551,863 Form
1ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC10152025Sell17.754,391,23777,944,457 Form