Kroger (KR)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $62.62 | Market Cap: $41.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Kroger (KR)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $62.62Market Cap: $41.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | Key risksKR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
| Key risksKR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Kroger Co. (KR) stock experienced a significant event on December 12, 2025, when it reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $1.32 billion, or -$2.02 per diluted share, primarily due to a substantial non-cash impairment charge of $2.585 billion related to its automated fulfillment network. This strategic review included plans to close three fulfillment centers, cancel a planned site, and accrue a $350 million cash termination payment to Ocado.
Despite the GAAP loss, Kroger's underlying operations showed resilience, with adjusted net earnings of $697 million, or $1.05 per diluted share, an increase from $0.98 in the prior year. Sales for Q3 2025 were $33.9 billion, a modest increase of 0.7%, and identical sales excluding fuel and adjusted items rose by 2.6%, indicating steady core demand.
Looking at the broader period, Kroger announced its second quarter 2025 results on September 11, 2025, for the period ending August 16, 2025. For Q2 FY2025, revenue remained flat at $33.9 billion, but identical sales excluding fuel climbed 3.4%. Earnings per share (non-GAAP) increased by 11.8% year-over-year to $1.04. The company also raised the lower end of its guidance for fiscal 2025 sales growth, operating profit, and EPS.
The stock has also been impacted by broader market sentiment, with technical indicators showing a bearish sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index indicating "Fear" as of December 20, 2025. Despite these fluctuations, Kroger has continued its capital return program, executing a $5.0 billion accelerated share repurchase that retired 75.6 million shares at an average price of $66.68, and increasing its quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share.
Key points for Kroger (KR) stock movement from approximately 8/31/2025 to today (12/21/2025) include:
1. Impairment Charge on Automated Fulfillment Network: Kroger reported a Q3 2025 net loss of $1.32 billion, driven by a $2.585 billion non-cash impairment and related charges for its automated fulfillment network, including plans to close three centers and a $350 million payment to Ocado.
2. Strong Underlying Operational Performance: Despite the large impairment, adjusted net earnings for Q3 2025 increased to $697 million ($1.05 per diluted share) from $0.98 in the prior year, with identical sales excluding fuel and adjusted items growing by 2.6%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KR Return | 12% | 45% | 0% | 5% | 37% | 5% | 146% |
| Peers Return | � | 43% | -14% | 12% | 12% | 14% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KR Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 47% | 60% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KR Max Drawdown | -7% | -1% | -6% | -3% | -2% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -8% | -23% | -14% | -16% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, COST, TGT, ACI, CVS. See KR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 787 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,031 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,466 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TGT, DG
In The Past
Kroger's stock fell -31.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -31.7% loss requires a 46.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.3% | 10.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.3% | 10.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kroger
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 71.5 |
| Rev LTM | 213,808 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,927 |
| FCF LTM | 4,651 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,080 |
| CFO LTM | 7,942 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,462 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 71.5 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 21.9 |
| P/E | 42.8 |
| P/CFO | 8.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | -4.6% | -7.5% | |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 6/20/2025 | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | -5.0% | 4.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.6% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12122025 | 10-Q 11/8/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9192025 | 10-Q 8/16/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6272025 | 10-Q 5/24/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4012025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12132024 | 10-Q 11/9/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9202024 | 10-Q 8/17/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6282024 | 10-Q 5/25/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4022024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12082023 | 10-Q 11/4/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9152023 | 10-Q 8/12/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6232023 | 10-Q 5/20/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12092022 | 10-Q 11/5/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9162022 | 10-Q 8/13/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6242022 | 10-Q 5/21/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |