InnovAge (INNV)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $10.91 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
InnovAge (INNV)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $10.91Market Cap: $-Sector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% Key risksINNV key risks include [1] a documented history of regulatory sanctions for compliance failures, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% |
| Key risksINNV key risks include [1] a documented history of regulatory sanctions for compliance failures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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InnovAge (INNV) stock has gained about 45% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Improvement in Fiscal Q4 2026 and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance. InnovAge reported strong fiscal year 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), with total revenues increasing by 15.9% to $989.7 million, up from $853.7 million in fiscal 2025. The company's adjusted EBITDA surged by 174.2% to $94.6 million from $34.5 million in fiscal 2025, expanding its adjusted EBITDA margin to 9.6%. For fiscal Q4 2026, revenue grew 18.3% year-over-year to $261.95 million, and diluted EPS improved to $0.06 from a loss of $0.01 in fiscal Q4 2025, marking a return to GAAP profitability for the quarter with net income reaching $9.78 million.
2. Robust Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance. Management provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2027, projecting total revenues between $1.05 billion and $1.085 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be in the range of $105 million to $115 million. This guidance suggests continued growth, with an anticipated revenue increase of approximately 6.1% to 9.6% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 11.0% to 21.6% over fiscal 2026.
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InnovAge (INNV) stock has gained about 45% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Improvement in Fiscal Q4 2026 and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance. InnovAge reported strong fiscal year 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), with total revenues increasing by 15.9% to $989.7 million, up from $853.7 million in fiscal 2025. The company's adjusted EBITDA surged by 174.2% to $94.6 million from $34.5 million in fiscal 2025, expanding its adjusted EBITDA margin to 9.6%. For fiscal Q4 2026, revenue grew 18.3% year-over-year to $261.95 million, and diluted EPS improved to $0.06 from a loss of $0.01 in fiscal Q4 2025, marking a return to GAAP profitability for the quarter with net income reaching $9.78 million.
2. Robust Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance. Management provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2027, projecting total revenues between $1.05 billion and $1.085 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be in the range of $105 million to $115 million. This guidance suggests continued growth, with an anticipated revenue increase of approximately 6.1% to 9.6% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 11.0% to 21.6% over fiscal 2026.
3. Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Participant Growth. InnovAge demonstrated improved operational performance, as evidenced by its center-level contribution margin rising to 23.0% for fiscal 2026, up from 18.0% in fiscal 2025. The company's participant census grew to approximately 8,230 across 20 centers as of June 30, 2026, reflecting an annual growth of 6.3%. This increase in participant numbers, combined with higher capitation rates, was a primary driver for the revenue growth. Additionally, operating cash flow more than doubled to $64.7 million in fiscal 2026.
4. Reduced Litigation Overhang. InnovAge accrued approximately $37 million in litigation costs and settlements by the end of fiscal 2026, with total litigation-related charges reaching around $57 million for the year. A positive development in fiscal Q1 2027 was the Department of Justice closing a separate investigation from 2024. Management has indicated that they do not anticipate a material additional loss beyond the amounts already accrued, suggesting a significant reduction in future litigation risk.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INNV | 43.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 17.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 12.7% | 24.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INNV | 21.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | 31.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INNV | 185.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 13.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.1% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INNV | 99.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 32.3% | 26.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INNV Return | -79% | 44% | -16% | -34% | 32% | 106% | -56% |
| Peers Return | 41% | 2% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 34% | 212% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INNV Win Rate | 30% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 42% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 48% | 54% | 58% | 65% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INNV Max Drawdown | - | -48% | -35% | -44% | -34% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -36% | -26% | -31% | -31% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ACHC, STLN, HCA, THC, EHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INNV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 826 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 427 days |
In The Past
InnovAge's stock fell -21.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | INNV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 826 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 427 days |
In The Past
InnovAge's stock fell -21.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About InnovAge (INNV)
InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) specializes in providing comprehensive healthcare and support services to seniors, enabling them to live independently in their homes and communities. The company operates under the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) model, which integrates medical and social services to meet the individualized needs of its participants.
InnovAge’s service offerings are diverse, encompassing both in-home and in-center care. In-home services include skilled nursing, personal care, and unskilled support. Its PACE centers provide primary medical care, various therapies (physical, occupational, speech), dental services, mental health support, meals, and social activities. The company also manages transportation to centers and medical appointments, alongside overall care management for its participants.
The company primarily serves seniors requiring a high level of coordinated care, with approximately 6,850 PACE participants currently under its care. InnovAge's operations span five U.S. states—Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Virginia—where it manages a network of 18 PACE centers.
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Kaiser Permanente for seniors, but focused on keeping them independent in their homes and communities.
A 'one-stop-shop' like Sam's Club or Costco, but for all the medical, social, and daily living needs of seniors who want to live independently at home.
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- Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE): An integrated healthcare model that provides comprehensive medical and ancillary services to seniors allowing them to live independently.
- In-Home Care Services: Direct care provided in participants' homes, encompassing skilled nursing, unskilled assistance, and personal care.
- In-Center Services: A variety of medical, therapeutic, nutritional, and social services delivered at dedicated PACE centers.
- Transportation Services: Coordinated transportation for participants to attend appointments at PACE centers and other third-party medical facilities.
- Care Management: Professional oversight and coordination of all aspects of a participant's individualized care plan.
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InnovAge (INNV) primarily sells its services directly to individuals. The company manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in their homes and communities through the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach.
The categories of customers it serves are:
- Seniors and Elderly Individuals: The company's core mission is to serve older adults who require comprehensive care and support to maintain their independence and live in their homes and communities.
- Participants in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE): InnovAge's customer base consists of individuals enrolled in the PACE program. These participants are typically 55 years or older, certified by their state to need nursing home-level care, and able to live safely in the community with PACE services. The company serves approximately 6,850 PACE participants.
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Patrick Blair, Chief Executive Officer
Patrick Blair was appointed CEO of InnovAge in January 2022. He has a tenure of over four years with the company.
Ben Adams, Chief Financial Officer
Ben Adams joined InnovAge as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023. He previously served as CFO of Kepro, a physician-led, technology-enabled company, and RxSense, LLC. Earlier in his career, Adams spent over two decades as a senior healthcare investment banker.
Christine Bent, Chief Operations Officer
Christine Bent was named Chief Operations Officer of InnovAge in March 2023. Prior to joining InnovAge, she was Senior Vice President and COO at Prime Therapeutics LLC, a privately held pharmacy benefit manager. She also held clinical and operations leadership roles at Allina Health for 12 years, and leadership positions at Atrius Health and Partners Community Healthcare.
Paul Taheri, MD, MBA, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Paul Taheri was appointed Chief Medical Officer of InnovAge in November 2025. He previously served as Clinical Quality Advisor to Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe (WCAS), a private equity firm that is a major shareholder in InnovAge. Dr. Taheri's prior experience includes roles as CEO and Deputy Dean for Clinical Affairs at Yale School of Medicine, and President and CEO of the University of Vermont Medical Group.
Nicole D'Amato, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Nicole D'Amato has served as InnovAge's Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary since July 2021. Before InnovAge, she was Senior Vice President at MacAndrews & Forbes, a company that owned a majority stake in Revlon, Inc. and was a major shareholder of Scientific Games, among other private companies. She also held senior legal roles at DIAGEO North America, Inc. and Samsonite, LLC, where she was involved in Samsonite's initial public offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
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Key Risks to InnovAge (INNV)
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Dependence on Government Payors: InnovAge operates under the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) model, making its revenue highly dependent on government payors like Medicare and Medicaid. This exposes the company to significant regulatory risks, including audits, policy changes, and potential sanctions for non-compliance. InnovAge has previously faced enrollment suspensions and citations for care deficiencies from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and state regulators, directly impacting its ability to enroll new participants and grow its business.
- Cost Management Challenges within a Capitated Model: As a PACE provider, InnovAge assumes 100% of the healthcare costs for its participants under a capitated payment model. While this model aims to incentivize preventive care and cost reduction, there is a substantial risk that the cost of providing comprehensive services, especially to its high-acuity population with an average of ten chronic conditions, could exceed the fixed compensation received. Challenges in managing these costs effectively, coupled with rising care expenses and losses from new centers, could hinder the company's path to consistent profitability.
- Staffing Shortages and Maintaining Quality of Care: InnovAge faces challenges related to workforce shortages in the healthcare sector, particularly for geriatric and primary care. Current and former employees have cited understaffing, high caseloads, and organizational dysfunction leading to delayed or inadequate care for participants. Such issues directly impact the quality of care provided, patient satisfaction, and can lead to regulatory actions and reputational damage, all of which are critical for the long-term success of a healthcare service provider.
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The increasing trend among Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to offer comprehensive supplemental benefits, including in-home support, transportation, meal delivery, and enhanced care coordination, which directly overlap with and provide an alternative to the all-inclusive services offered by the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) model.
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The total addressable market for InnovAge's main product and service, the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), is estimated to be $260 billion in the United States.
This market size is based on an estimated 2.3 million PACE-eligible individuals in the U.S. as of 2023. InnovAge targets frail, high-cost seniors who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid and meet nursing home eligibility criteria. Currently, only a small fraction of these eligible individuals are enrolled in PACE programs, with approximately 77,000 participants as of June 2024.
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InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Participant Growth (Census Growth): InnovAge consistently emphasizes increasing its participant base within its Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). The company reported serving approximately 8,010 participants across 20 centers as of December 31, 2025, marking a 7.1% growth compared to the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. InnovAge's fiscal year 2026 guidance projects an ending census of 7,900 to 8,100 participants.
- Increased Capitation Rates: A significant portion of InnovAge's revenue is derived from capitation rates, which include annual adjustments from Medicaid and Medicare. Increases in these capitation rates directly contribute to revenue growth.
- Expansion of De Novo Centers: InnovAge is actively expanding its footprint by opening new "de novo" centers, such as those in Florida. While these new centers initially incur losses during their ramp-up phase, they are anticipated to become substantial contributors to revenue as they mature and increase participant enrollment.
- Successful Medicaid Reinstatements: The company has seen revenue growth driven by its success in reinstating participants who had previously lost Medicaid coverage. This initiative directly contributes to census growth and, consequently, revenue.
- Operational Efficiencies and Revenue Integrity: InnovAge is improving its revenue through enhanced revenue integrity processes, including a reduction in revenue write-offs and a strengthened Medicaid eligibility tracking system. These operational improvements ensure the company effectively captures the revenue it is entitled to, thereby contributing to overall revenue growth and profitability.
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Share Repurchases
- InnovAge reported a repurchase of equity securities totaling approximately $5.912 million in a period within fiscal year 2025.
Share Issuance
- InnovAge completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in March 2021, issuing 16,666,667 shares of common stock at a price of $21.00 per share, raising approximately $350.07 million in gross proceeds.
- Including a partial exercise of the underwriters' option to purchase additional shares, the IPO ultimately involved 18,995,901 shares, generating approximately $399 million in gross proceeds.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, InnovAge was a portfolio company backed by private equity firms Apax Partners LLP and Welsh, Carson, Anderson and Stowe LP.
Capital Expenditures
- For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended December 31, 2025), InnovAge incurred $2.4 million in capital expenditures.
- The company anticipates requiring significant capital expenditures to grow and evolve its operational and financial operations, including ensuring personnel licensing and training.
- InnovAge's investments aim to improve health outcomes and reduce medical costs for participants, with long-term plans to reinvest savings back into the InnovAge Platform.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Facilities
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 15.4% | 45.5% | 86.6% | CAH 378% · MCK 331% · COR 164% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 39.0% | -2.8% | 0.1% | OSCR 84% · HQY 49% · ELV 16% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 20.1% | 39.2% | -1.3% | HIMS 221% · RDNT 166% · DGX 75% |
| Health Care Facilities ← | 24 | 4.2% | 3.1% | -13.4% | NHC 269% · THC 259% · ENSG 125% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -3.2% | -5.0% | -22.6% | POCI 11050% · UFPT 336% · GKOS 204% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 62 | -8.2% | 11.7% | -40.1% | LQDA 2386% · INDV 1146% · ETON 982% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 13.1% | -12.7% | -40.8% | LNTH 293% · HAE 54% · MMSI 19% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | 5.2% | -17.4% | -68.8% | SNWV 1757% · MEDP 229% · NTRA 192% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -0.7% | -25.7% | -79.5% | CELZ 1280% · DNTH 1143% · ELVN 1058% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -23.7% | -51.7% | -79.9% | SPOK 72% · HSTM 2% · VEEV -14% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is 28.2% Fall In InnovAge (INNV) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 04/03/2026 | |
| InnovAge Stock (+12%): CMS Retroactive Payments for PACE Sector Drive Rally | 03/05/2026 | |
| InnovAge Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With InnovAge Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| InnovAge Stock Jumps 11% In A Week, Time To Buy The Stock? | 08/09/2025 | |
| InnovAge (INNV) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| InnovAge (INNV) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| InnovAge (INNV) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| InnovAge (INNV) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| InnovAge (INNV) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Time To Buy The Dip In InnovAge Stock? | 05/23/2026 | |
| Down 28%, Is InnovAge Stock a Buy Now? | 04/03/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 75.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,206 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,117 |
| FCF LTM | 413 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 356 |
| CFO LTM | 1,212 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,063 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/04/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.06 | $8.47 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.2% | 29.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.9% | 78.1% |
| Downside Capture | 76.02 | 18.08 |
| Upside Capture | 172.77 | 104.48 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.6% | 13.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.35 | 1.11 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | -2.04 | -0.94 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| Down Beta | -2.48 | 1.55 | -0.55 | 0.61 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | 32% | 134% | 198% | 153% | 169% | 159% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 33 | 63 | 131 | 360 |
| Down Capture | 189% | 232% | 17% | 124% | 30% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 31 | 63 | 114 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INNV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INNV | 120.0% | 77.9% | 1.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.4% | 16.1% | 1.16 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 13.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 13.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.9% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.5% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 9.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INNV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INNV | -6.2% | 74.6% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 15.2% | 0.24 | 25.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 26.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 8.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 1.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 29.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.5% | 0.39 | 13.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INNV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INNV | -7.7% | 72.1% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.6% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 25.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 28.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/8/2026 | 4.8% | 3.8% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 2.0% | -5.2% | -9.5% |
| 2/3/2026 | 37.5% | 47.9% | 68.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -17.6% | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| 9/9/2025 | -2.8% | 21.3% | 36.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 14.4% | 38.9% | 39.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -9.1% | -8.9% | -6.8% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.8% | -5.4% | -20.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 12.0% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -5.6% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 37.5% | 52.3% | 68.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -41.8% | -43.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/8/2026 | 4.8% | 3.8% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 2.0% | -5.2% | -9.5% |
| 2/3/2026 | 37.5% | 47.9% | 68.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -17.6% | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| 9/9/2025 | -2.8% | 21.3% | 36.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 14.4% | 38.9% | 39.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -9.1% | -8.9% | -6.8% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.8% | -5.4% | -20.8% |
| 9/10/2024 | -6.5% | -3.7% | -8.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.0% | -5.6% | 13.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | -3.9% | -3.0% | -8.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.0% | 14.0% | 1.8% |
| 9/12/2023 | -2.9% | 8.0% | -9.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 25.0% |
| 2/7/2023 | 1.9% | 2.7% | -15.2% |
| 11/8/2022 | -11.4% | 3.9% | 10.4% |
| 9/13/2022 | 22.0% | 52.3% | 17.8% |
| 5/10/2022 | 6.2% | 1.1% | 12.6% |
| 2/9/2022 | -16.9% | -11.3% | -9.5% |
| 11/9/2021 | 11.8% | 26.9% | 15.9% |
| 9/21/2021 | -24.9% | -41.8% | -43.9% |
| 5/10/2021 | -6.8% | -18.3% | -19.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 12.0% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -5.6% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 37.5% | 52.3% | 68.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -41.8% | -43.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 09/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 09/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 09/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/05/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/9/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 9/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Census | Reported | 8,625 | 8,738 | 8,850 | 9.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 8,000 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Total Member Months | Reported | 0.10 Mil | 0.10 Mil | 0.10 Mil | 7.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 94,300 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Total revenues | Reported | 1.05 Bil | 1.07 Bil | 1.08 Bil | 10.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 962.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 105.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 25.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 87.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Census | Reported | 7,900 | 8,000 | 8,100 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Member Months | Reported | 92,900 | 94,300 | 95,700 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 94,300 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 950.00 Mil | 962.50 Mil | 975.00 Mil | 2.7% | Raised | Guidance: 937.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 85.00 Mil | 87.50 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 20.7% | Raised | Guidance: 72.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Census | Reported | 7,900 | 8,000 | 8,100 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Member Months | Reported | 92,900 | 94,300 | 95,700 | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 93,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 925.00 Mil | 937.50 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 925.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 70.00 Mil | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 19.8% | Raised | Guidance: 60.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Census | Reported | 7,900 | 8,000 | 8,100 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Member Months | Reported | 91,600 | 93,000 | 94,400 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 93,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 900.00 Mil | 925.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 925.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 56.00 Mil | 60.50 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 60.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarbrough, Michael Anthony | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 4.90 | 33,000 | 161,700 | 586,123 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarbrough, Michael Anthony | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 4.90 | 33,000 | 161,700 | 586,123 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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