Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.69 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.69Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -155% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Acadia Healthcare's (ACHC) stock moved by -36% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Reduction in 2025 Earnings Guidance due to Increased Professional and General Liability (PLGL) Expenses. Acadia Healthcare revised its adjusted earnings projections for 2025 downwards by $49 million on December 2, 2025, marking the second such adjustment within a month. The company cited higher expected expenses primarily from patient-related litigation. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to $1.94-$2.04 from a previous $2.35-$2.45, and adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced from $650 million-$660 million to $601 million-$611 million. The projected 2025 PLGL expense more than doubled to approximately $116 million, up from $54 million in 2024, driven by higher settlement costs, a 168% increase in claim frequency, elevated incurred-but-not-reported reserves, and less favorable reinsurance terms.
2. Resignation of Chief Operating Officer. Dr. Nasser Khan resigned as Chief Operating Officer effective November 3, 2025. This executive shake-up contributed to market unease and disruption within the company's leadership structure.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACHC Return | 51% | 21% | 36% | -6% | -49% | -58% | -50% |
| Peers Return | 53% | 39% | -24% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 213% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACHC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 61% | 45% | 63% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACHC Max Drawdown | -65% | -1% | -17% | -18% | -52% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -4% | -50% | -13% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NTRA, THC, ENSG, OPCH, AGL. See ACHC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACHC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 771 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 650.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1099 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NTRA, THC, ENSG, OPCH, AGL
In The Past
Acadia Healthcare's stock fell -25.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -25.9% loss requires a 34.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.5% | -29.5% | -38.7% |
| 12312018 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.5% | 29.2% | -1.2% |
| 04302018 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | -10.0% | -30.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.5% | -29.5% | -38.7% |
| 12312018 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.5% | 29.2% | -1.2% |
| 04302018 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | -10.0% | -30.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Acadia Healthcare
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 104.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,180 |
| Op Inc LTM | 368 |
| FCF LTM | 71 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22 |
| CFO LTM | 297 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 314 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | 17.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |