ICF International (ICFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.65 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Research & Consulting Services
ICF International (ICFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.65Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Research & Consulting Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ICFI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for ICF International (ICFI) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: ICF International reported third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, that missed analysts' expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. The company announced EPS of $1.67, falling short of the projected $1.74 to $1.75, and reported revenue of $465.41 million, below the forecasted $485.10 million to $487.46 million. This represented a 10% year-over-year decline in revenue, contributing to the stock falling 7.8% during the quarter and losing 28.2% year-to-date as of the report date.
2. Persistent Federal Government Headwinds and Contract Declines: Throughout the period, ICF International continued to experience significant headwinds from declining federal government contracts. U.S. federal government revenues had previously plunged 25.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, particularly in the Health and Social Programs sector, a trend that persisted and posed a primary risk to the company's performance. The company's 2025 guidance acknowledged a potential revenue decline of up to 10% from 2024 levels, incorporating the impact of a government shutdown.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ICFI Return | -18% | 39% | -3% | 36% | -11% | -31% | -8% |
| Peers Return | -0% | 42% | -6% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 78% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ICFI Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 68% | 42% | 53% | 48% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ICFI Max Drawdown | -44% | -2% | -17% | -3% | -12% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -2% | -25% | -17% | -27% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IDCC, CBZ, MGRC, KW, AMN. See ICFI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ICFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 413 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1836 days | 1480 days |
Compare to IDCC, CBZ, MGRC, KW, AMN
In The Past
ICF International's stock fell -21.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/23/2021. A -21.1% loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ICFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | ICFI | ICF International | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 3.5% | -3.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | ICFI | ICF International | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 3.5% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ICF International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,428 |
| Op Inc LTM | 183 |
| FCF LTM | 114 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 136 |
| CFO LTM | 187 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 209 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 11.9 |
| P/E | 18.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -10.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Mehl Randall | 11172025 | Buy | 78.20 | 346 | 27,057 | 1,549,924 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |