Tearsheet

ICF International (ICFI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.65 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Research & Consulting Services

ICF International (ICFI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.65
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Research & Consulting Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ICFI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement for ICF International (ICFI) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: ICF International reported third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, that missed analysts' expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. The company announced EPS of $1.67, falling short of the projected $1.74 to $1.75, and reported revenue of $465.41 million, below the forecasted $485.10 million to $487.46 million. This represented a 10% year-over-year decline in revenue, contributing to the stock falling 7.8% during the quarter and losing 28.2% year-to-date as of the report date.

2. Persistent Federal Government Headwinds and Contract Declines: Throughout the period, ICF International continued to experience significant headwinds from declining federal government contracts. U.S. federal government revenues had previously plunged 25.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, particularly in the Health and Social Programs sector, a trend that persisted and posed a primary risk to the company's performance. The company's 2025 guidance acknowledged a potential revenue decline of up to 10% from 2024 levels, incorporating the impact of a government shutdown.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ICFI Return-18%39%-3%36%-11%-31%-8%
Peers Return-0%42%-6%28%5%0%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ICFI Win Rate50%75%50%58%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate55%68%42%53%48%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ICFI Max Drawdown-44%-2%-17%-3%-12%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-2%-25%-17%-27%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IDCC, CBZ, MGRC, KW, AMN. See ICFI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventICFIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-21.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven169 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven413 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven178 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven128.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1836 days1480 days

Compare to IDCC, CBZ, MGRC, KW, AMN


In The Past

ICF International's stock fell -21.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/23/2021. A -21.1% loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ICF International (ICFI)

Better Bets than ICF International (ICFI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ICFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
ICFI_2282025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282025ICFIICF InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
24.5%3.5%-3.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
ICFI_2282025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282025ICFIICF InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
24.5%3.5%-3.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ICF International

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ICFIIDCCCBZMGRCKWAMNMedian
NameICF Inte.InterDig.CBIZ McGrath .Kennedy-.AMN Heal. 
Mkt Price83.61341.8451.42104.429.7616.6967.52
Mkt Cap1.58.83.22.61.30.62.1
Rev LTM1,9269292,6769315162,7171,428
Op Inc LTM1535762132336345183
FCF LTM1415908659-40223114
FCF 3Y Avg1603831134-102254136
CFO LTM16267310421212267187
CFO 3Y Avg18244113123541334209

Growth & Margins

ICFIIDCCCBZMGRCKWAMNMedian
NameICF Inte.InterDig.CBIZ McGrath .Kennedy-.AMN Heal. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.8%28.8%59.2%4.8%-3.8%-11.4%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.7%27.1%27.2%20.7%-0.9%-20.6%12.7%
Rev Chg Q-10.0%28.0%58.1%-3.9%-8.7%-7.7%-5.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.6%4.0%10.5%-1.1%-2.1%-1.9%-1.5%
Op Mgn LTM8.0%62.0%7.9%25.0%12.2%1.7%10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.4%48.6%9.4%24.9%11.7%5.5%10.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%1.6%-0.5%-0.6%-1.4%-0.5%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%72.5%3.9%22.7%2.3%9.8%9.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%62.0%7.2%26.9%7.6%9.8%9.5%
FCF/Rev LTM7.3%63.6%3.2%6.3%-7.7%8.2%6.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.1%54.2%6.2%0.0%-18.7%7.4%6.8%

Valuation

ICFIIDCCCBZMGRCKWAMNMedian
NameICF Inte.InterDig.CBIZ McGrath .Kennedy-.AMN Heal. 
Mkt Cap1.58.83.22.61.30.62.1
P/S0.99.61.23.12.20.31.7
P/EBIT11.314.513.412.54.3-2.811.9
P/E17.317.931.719.9139.9-2.718.9
P/CFO10.613.231.613.694.82.813.4
Total Yield6.4%6.2%3.2%6.7%6.6%-36.9%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%0.0%1.6%5.9%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.1%11.0%3.7%0.0%-6.1%16.6%5.4%
D/E0.40.10.60.24.01.20.5
Net D/E0.4-0.10.60.23.71.10.5

Returns

ICFIIDCCCBZMGRCKWAMNMedian
NameICF Inte.InterDig.CBIZ McGrath .Kennedy-.AMN Heal. 
1M Rtn5.9%-13.8%-6.7%-4.3%31.5%-14.8%-5.5%
3M Rtn-13.1%20.3%-14.8%-14.3%14.6%-15.9%-13.7%
6M Rtn1.0%53.7%-28.9%-7.6%55.3%-16.8%-3.3%
12M Rtn-37.9%72.6%-37.1%-12.5%-8.1%-38.5%-24.8%
3Y Rtn-23.7%613.5%2.5%10.9%-30.7%-86.5%-10.6%
1M Excs Rtn5.9%-13.8%-6.6%-4.3%31.6%-14.7%-5.5%
3M Excs Rtn-16.7%13.6%-19.6%-21.9%8.0%-22.8%-18.2%
6M Excs Rtn-13.7%38.9%-43.7%-22.4%40.5%-31.5%-18.0%
12M Excs Rtn-52.9%62.7%-51.3%-26.4%-24.2%-49.4%-37.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-94.7%566.6%-68.1%-58.5%-101.5%-159.2%-81.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,9631,7801,5531,5071,479
Total1,9631,7801,5531,5071,479


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity584,421
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.5%
Average Daily Volume207,077
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.82
Basic Shares Quantity18,432,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Mehl Randall 11172025Buy78.2034627,0571,549,924Form