Hagerty (HGTY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.79 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Hagerty (HGTY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.79Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Collectible & Classic Vehicle Assets. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Collectible & Classic Vehicle Assets. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HGTY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Hagerty (HGTY) stock movements were significantly influenced by several key positive developments, primarily surrounding its strong financial performance and strategic business initiatives.
1. Hagerty Reported Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Increased Full-Year Outlook. The company announced impressive third-quarter results on November 4, 2025, with net income reaching $46 million, a 143% increase compared to Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter grew by 106% to $50 million. For the year-to-date through Q3 2025, total revenue increased by 18% to $1.068 billion, driven by a 14% rise in commission and fee revenue and an exceptional 54% growth in membership, marketplace, and other revenue. Operating income also saw a substantial increase of 240% to $34.3 million in Q3, with operating margins expanding by nearly six percentage points. Consequently, Hagerty raised its full-year 2025 outlook for total revenue growth to 14-15%, net income growth to 58-65%, and adjusted EBITDA growth to 37-41%.
2. Continued Growth in Membership and Written Premium. Hagerty added 258,000 new members during the first nine months of 2025, contributing to a 13% growth in written premium, which reached $934 million year-to-date. Policy retention remained strong at 88.6%, supported by a high Net Promoter Score of 82. Written premium increased 16% for Q3 2025, further supported by accelerating State Farm policy conversions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HGTY Return | - | - | -41% | -7% | 24% | 35% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 12% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HGTY Win Rate | - | 67% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HGTY Max Drawdown | - | - | -47% | -10% | -1% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HGTY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
Hagerty's stock fell -59.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/13/2021. A -59.7% loss requires a 148.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HGTY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hagerty
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,466 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,535 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.5 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | 10282025 | Sell | 11.12 | 15,270 | 169,802 | 9,986,839 | Form | |
| 1 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | 10242025 | Sell | 11.18 | 9,495 | 106,154 | 10,543,836 | Form | |
| 2 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | 10212025 | Sell | 11.33 | 14,644 | 165,917 | 11,025,200 | Form | |
| 3 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | 10162025 | Sell | 12.16 | 55,524 | 675,172 | 12,446,064 | Form | |
| 4 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | 10092025 | Sell | 11.90 | 6,861 | 81,646 | 13,109,968 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |