Hess Midstream (HESM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.2 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Hess Midstream (HESM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.2Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Infrastructure. Themes include Crude Oil & Natural Gas Midstream, and Energy Logistics & Transportation. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Infrastructure. Themes include Crude Oil & Natural Gas Midstream, and Energy Logistics & Transportation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HESM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide specific reasons for a -15.2% stock movement for Hess Midstream (HESM) during the exact period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, as this timeframe is in the future relative to my last update of information. However, I can highlight key factors that have recently influenced HESM's stock performance and investor sentiment up to the most recent available data, which could explain downward pressure on the stock.
1. Suspension of Capa Gas Plant. Hess Midstream reduced its full-year 2025 capital expenditure guidance to approximately $270 million, reflecting the suspension of the Capa gas plant project and its removal from the company's forward plan. This indicates a change in investment strategy and potentially impacts future growth prospects.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Revised Price Targets. Several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for HESM around late 2024 and late 2025. For example, Wall Street Zen downgraded Hess Midstream Partners from a "buy" to a "hold" rating in November 2025. Additionally, Raymond James Financial lowered its price target from $48.00 to $35.00 in October 2025, while maintaining an "outperform" rating. These revisions suggest a less optimistic outlook from the analytical community.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HESM Return | -5% | 53% | 17% | 14% | 26% | -3% | 136% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 50% | 9% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HESM Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HESM Max Drawdown | -72% | -2% | -7% | -12% | -1% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -0% | -1% | -8% | -3% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HESM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 309.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 896 days | 120 days |
Compare to ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI
In The Past
Hess Midstream's stock fell -30.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -30.1% loss requires a 43.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HESM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hess Midstream
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,956 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,542 |
| FCF LTM | 3,406 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,982 |
| CFO LTM | 5,912 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,813 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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