Home Depot (HD)
Market Price (3/31/2026): $323.77 | Market Cap: $321.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Home Improvement Retail
Home Depot (HD)
Market Price (3/31/2026): $323.77Market Cap: $321.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Home Improvement Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Key risksHD key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to the housing market slowdown, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Smart Buildings & Proptech, Sustainable & Green Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Key risksHD key risks include [1] a high sensitivity to the housing market slowdown, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Home Depot (HD) stock has lost about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Challenging Housing Market and Elevated Interest Rates Dampen Demand.
The persistent weakness in the housing market, influenced by high interest rates, continued to exert pressure on Home Depot's stock. Management indicated in December 2025 that they do not anticipate a near-term rebound in the housing market for fiscal year 2026. With mortgage rates remaining around 6.3%, a "lock-in effect" has led many homeowners to postpone moving, shifting consumer spending away from large discretionary home improvement projects towards essential repairs and maintenance. Further contributing to this macroeconomic headwind, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% in March 2026, as many potential buyers continue to wait for lower rates.
2. Cautious Fiscal 2026 Sales and Earnings Guidance.
Home Depot issued a modest outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting diluted earnings-per-share growth to be approximately flat to 4.0% from fiscal 2025's diluted EPS of $14.23. Similarly, comparable sales growth for fiscal 2026 is expected to be approximately flat to 2.0%. This guidance was more conservative than some analyst expectations, with Bloomberg's consensus estimate for EPS growth being around 5%, signaling a potentially slower growth trajectory for the company.
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1. Challenging Housing Market and Elevated Interest Rates Dampen Demand.
The persistent weakness in the housing market, influenced by high interest rates, continued to exert pressure on Home Depot's stock. Management indicated in December 2025 that they do not anticipate a near-term rebound in the housing market for fiscal year 2026. With mortgage rates remaining around 6.3%, a "lock-in effect" has led many homeowners to postpone moving, shifting consumer spending away from large discretionary home improvement projects towards essential repairs and maintenance. Further contributing to this macroeconomic headwind, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% in March 2026, as many potential buyers continue to wait for lower rates.
2. Cautious Fiscal 2026 Sales and Earnings Guidance.
Home Depot issued a modest outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting diluted earnings-per-share growth to be approximately flat to 4.0% from fiscal 2025's diluted EPS of $14.23. Similarly, comparable sales growth for fiscal 2026 is expected to be approximately flat to 2.0%. This guidance was more conservative than some analyst expectations, with Bloomberg's consensus estimate for EPS growth being around 5%, signaling a potentially slower growth trajectory for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.2% change in HD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 352.27 | 323.50 | -8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 166,189 | 166,189 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.0 | 22.0 | -8.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 993 | 993 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | -8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 36.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -10.5% | 61.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.0% change in HD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 399.21 | 323.50 | -19.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165,054 | 166,189 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 8.8% | -1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.1 | 22.0 | -18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 992 | 993 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | -19.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.5% | 51.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in HD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 384.38 | 323.50 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 154,596 | 166,189 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.5% | 8.8% | -7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.1 | 22.0 | -15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 991 | 993 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 50.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 62.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.5% change in HD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 272.94 | 323.50 | 18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 157,291 | 166,189 | 5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 8.8% | -19.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 22.0 | 35.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,020 | 993 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HD | 18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 49.0% | 58.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HD Return | 60% | -22% | 13% | 15% | -9% | -6% | 38% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -23% | 39% | 43% | -4% | -3% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -7% | 70% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HD Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 40% | 69% | 65% | 44% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HD Max Drawdown | -6% | -35% | -11% | -6% | -13% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -32% | -3% | -3% | -19% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, LOW, BBBY. See HD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 751 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,019 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, LOW, BBBY
In The Past
Home Depot's stock fell -35.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -35.9% loss requires a 56.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Home Depot (HD)
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer. It operates The Home Depot stores that sell various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products The company also offers installation services for flooring, cabinets and cabinet makeovers, countertops, furnaces and central air systems, and windows. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company primarily serves homeowners; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialty tradesmen, such as electricians, plumbers, and painters. It also sells its products through websites, including homedepot.com; blinds.com, an online site for custom window coverings; and thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 2,317 stores in the United States. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Home Depot:
- Walmart for home improvement.
- Amazon for home building and repair supplies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Building Materials & Home Improvement Products: Sells a wide range of materials and products for construction, renovation, and general home improvement projects.
- Lawn & Garden Products: Offers various items for landscaping, gardening, and outdoor living.
- Décor & Furnishings: Provides decorative products for interiors, including textiles and custom window coverings.
- Facilities MRO Products: Supplies products for the maintenance, repair, and operations of facilities.
- Installation Services: Provides professional installation for components such as flooring, cabinets, countertops, HVAC systems, and windows.
- Tool & Equipment Rental: Offers tools and equipment for rent to both homeowners and professionals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Home Depot (symbol: HD) serves a diverse customer base that includes both individual consumers and various types of professionals and businesses. Given the nature of its professional customers, who are typically individual tradesmen or small businesses rather than large public corporations, the most appropriate way to identify its major customers is through categories.
Here are the major categories of customers that Home Depot serves:
- Homeowners: These are individual consumers who purchase products for do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvement projects, routine maintenance, repairs, and decorative purposes for their personal residences.
- Professional Renovators & Remodelers and General Contractors: This category includes businesses and individuals involved in larger-scale home improvement projects, property renovation, remodeling, and new construction. They purchase building materials, tools, and supplies for their contractual work.
- Maintenance Professionals, Property Managers, and Specialty Tradesmen: This segment encompasses a wide range of professionals such as handymen, building service contractors, property managers, electricians, plumbers, and painters. They acquire materials, tools, and equipment for facilities maintenance, repair operations (MRO), and specialized trade services.
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The Home Depot's management team comprises experienced leaders with extensive backgrounds in retail and various strategic functions. Ted Decker Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer Ted Decker became the Chair, President, and CEO of The Home Depot in March 2022, after serving as President and Chief Operating Officer from October 2020. He joined the company in 2000 as director of business valuation and has held several strategic positions, including senior director of business valuation, vice president, senior vice president of strategic business development, senior vice president of retail finance, and chief merchant and executive vice president of merchandising. Before joining The Home Depot, Decker worked in business development, strategic planning, and finance roles at Kimberly-Clark Corp. and Scott Paper Co., and held corporate finance, lending, and credit positions at PNC Bank. He has international experience, having lived and worked in England and Australia. Richard McPhail Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Home Depot since September 2019, having joined the company in 2005. His roles within Home Depot have included senior positions in strategic planning, financial planning, business development, real estate, and international financial management. Prior to his tenure at Home Depot, McPhail was the executive vice president of corporate finance with Marconi Corporation plc in London, England, where he led business development efforts in Europe and North America. He also held positions with Wachovia Securities and Arthur Andersen. Ann-Marie Campbell Senior Executive Vice President, U.S. Stores and Operations, The Home Depot Canada, The Home Depot Mexico, and Outside Sales and Service Ann-Marie Campbell began her career with The Home Depot in 1985 as a part-time cashier in South Florida. She has steadily advanced through numerous roles, including store manager, district manager, regional vice president, vice president of operations, vice president of merchandising and special orders, vice president of retail marketing and sales for Home Depot Direct, vice president of vendor services, and president of the Southern Division, before ascending to her current senior executive vice president role in January 2016. She is responsible for overseeing more than 2,300 stores and over 400,000 associates across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Marc Brown CEO, HD Supply Marc Brown serves as the CEO of HD Supply, which is a key component of The Home Depot's strategy to cater to Pro customers in the maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) industry. He joined The Home Depot in 1998 and has held various functional support and operational roles within the company. These include human resources manager, store manager, field install manager, district manager, senior director of Pro sales, regional vice president for the Southeast Region, and senior vice president of retail operations. Teresa Wynn Roseborough Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Teresa Wynn Roseborough is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for The Home Depot. She is responsible for the company's legal affairs and corporate governance. Before joining The Home Depot in 2011, she held significant legal positions, including Deputy Assistant Attorney General for the U.S. Department of Justice and corporate counsel for MetLife, Inc. She also served as a law clerk to Justice John Paul Stevens of the U.S. Supreme Court.AI Analysis | Feedback
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by its sensitivity to economic conditions, intense competition within the retail sector, and potential disruptions to its global supply chain. The most significant risk to Home Depot's business is its **reliance on the stability of the housing and home improvement markets, which are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions**. Economic downturns, elevated interest rates, inflation, and low housing turnover can directly impact consumer confidence and discretionary spending on large home improvement projects and other related purchases. This sensitivity has been explicitly linked to recent sluggish sales and declining profits for the company. Executives have noted that consumer uncertainty and pressures in housing disproportionately affect demand for home improvement products and services. Secondly, Home Depot operates in an **intensely competitive and fragmented retail environment**. The company faces strong competition from other large home improvement retailers like Lowe's, as well as local and regional hardware stores, specialized suppliers, and e-commerce giants such as Amazon. This competitive landscape can exert pressure on pricing, impact demand for products and services, and potentially lead to a decrease in market share. Finally, **disruptions in Home Depot's supply chain and potential labor shortages** pose a considerable risk. The company's ability to receive and distribute merchandise in a timely manner can be adversely affected by various factors, including geopolitical events, pandemics, and challenges within its logistics network. Labor shortages, both within Home Depot's operations and among its suppliers, can also impair the flow and availability of products, leading to increased costs and potentially damaging its reputation if customer demand cannot be met.AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing adoption of modular construction and pre-fabricated building components. This trend could reduce the demand for individual building materials and tools typically purchased from Home Depot by both professional contractors and DIY customers, as more of the construction and renovation process shifts to off-site manufacturing and assembly.
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The Home Depot (HD) operates in several significant addressable markets, primarily within the United States. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion, a figure that increased by about $50 billion following its acquisition of SRS Distribution. Key addressable markets for Home Depot's main products and services include:- U.S. Home Improvement Market: This market, which encompasses building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as installation services, was valued at USD 534.57 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 549.27 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 682.40 billion by 2033. Another estimate placed the U.S. residential remodeling market size at USD 527.36 billion in 2023, with a projected growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030.
- U.S. Professional (Pro) Market: Home Depot specifically targets professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, and maintenance professionals. The company estimated that the addressable pro market in the United States is worth more than $450 billion annually.
- U.S. Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) Market: This market, which includes products for facilities maintenance, repair, and operations, was valued at USD 93.17 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 102.86 billion by 2031. The U.S. accounted for 87.10% of the North America MRO market in 2025.
- U.S. Tool and Equipment Rental Market: The market size for tool and equipment rental in the U.S. was $5.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $5.7 billion in 2025. Separately, the U.S. construction equipment rental market is projected to reach USD 17.82 billion by 2026. The overall equipment rental market in North America is projected to grow to nearly $82.6 billion in 2025.
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The Home Depot (HD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and anticipated market shifts:
- Deepening Penetration with Professional (Pro) Customers: Home Depot is heavily investing in its "Pro ecosystem" to capture a larger share of the professional contractor market. This includes expanding Pro-tailored product assortments, offering specialized services, developing digital tools for order management and job site delivery, and enhancing distribution capabilities through Pro hubs and flatbed distribution centers. The company aims to provide seamless experiences for Pros, who already account for approximately 50% of its revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Recent and planned acquisitions are bolstering Home Depot's position in the professional space. The 2024 acquisition of SRS Distribution and the 2025 purchase of GMS are significant moves designed to expand the company's total addressable market within specialty trades like roofing, pool, landscaping, and building products, adding distribution locations and increasing sales to professional customers.
- Enhancing the Interconnected Retail Experience: Home Depot continues to invest in its omnichannel strategy, blending its physical stores with robust digital platforms. This involves improving e-commerce functionality, mobile applications, and in-store technologies, as well as optimizing fulfillment options such as buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) and curbside pickup. The introduction of generative AI tools like "Magic Apron" in 2025 further enhances the digital customer experience by providing project advice and product information.
- Supply Chain Optimization and New Store Growth: The company is expanding its supply chain infrastructure, particularly with new distribution centers and Market Delivery Operations (MDOs) to improve the speed and reliability of deliveries for both parcel and big-and-bulky items. Additionally, Home Depot plans to open approximately 15 new stores in fiscal year 2026, contributing to its overall sales growth.
- Anticipated Housing Market Recovery: Home Depot's revenue growth projections for fiscal year 2026 (approximately 2.5% to 4.5% total sales growth) are cautiously optimistic and are largely contingent on a "thaw" and recovery in the housing market. Stabilizing mortgage rates and an increase in existing home sales are expected to drive demand for home improvement projects and larger discretionary renovations, leading to higher ticket sales.
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Share Repurchases
- The Home Depot authorized a new $15 billion share repurchase program effective August 15, 2023, replacing its previous authorization.
- In fiscal 2024, the company returned $0.6 billion to shareholders through share repurchases before pausing the program in March 2024, in anticipation of the SRS acquisition.
- Management anticipates resuming share repurchases once the company achieves an excess cash position, projected for the first half of 2027.
Share Issuance
- The company reported proceeds from sales of common stock of $314 million in fiscal 2025 and $395 million in fiscal 2024.
- During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, 436 deferred stock units were issued under the Home Depot, Inc. Nonemployee Directors' Deferred Stock Compensation Plan.
Outbound Investments
- In fiscal 2024, Home Depot acquired SRS Distribution Inc., a leading residential specialty trade distribution company, for $18.25 billion, aimed at accelerating growth with professional customers.
- In September 2025, Home Depot completed the acquisition of GMS Inc. through its SRS Distribution subsidiary for approximately $5.5 billion, including net debt, to further enhance its offerings for residential and commercial professional contractors.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 totaled approximately $3.7 billion.
- The company's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, increasing annually from $2.6 billion in fiscal 2021 to $3.7 billion in fiscal 2025.
- For fiscal 2026, Home Depot plans capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of total sales, with a primary focus on strengthening its competitive position, delivering an enhanced customer experience, and opening approximately 15 new stores.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 216.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 381.8 |
| Rev LTM | 226,227 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,238 |
| FCF LTM | 8,397 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,821 |
| CFO LTM | 16,330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,030 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 381.8 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 24.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $323.50 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 321.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/22/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $363.50 | $369.59 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -11.0% | -12.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.1% | 23.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| Upside Capture | 53.95 | 57.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.8% | 48.8% |
HD Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.17 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 0.69 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Up Capture | -9% | 65% | 46% | 17% | 46% | 53% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 117 | 378 |
| Down Capture | -29% | -17% | 7% | 45% | 78% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 66 | 133 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | -8.6% | 23.3% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.5% | 23.6% | 0.13 | 61.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 19.0% | 0.60 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.7% | 1.42 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.5% | 17.6% | 0.83 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 59.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.0% | 44.3% | -0.49 | 12.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 4.7% | 23.7% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.8% | 23.7% | 0.21 | 63.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.0% | 0.55 | 60.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.7% | 0.97 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.2% | 18.8% | 0.53 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 60.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 19.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | 12.1% | 24.6% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.6% | 21.9% | 0.49 | 70.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 68.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 19.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 62.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 15.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | 2.0% | -1.6% | -11.6% |
| 11/18/2025 | -6.0% | -6.0% | -0.2% |
| 8/19/2025 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.6% | -2.4% | -8.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.8% | 1.9% | -5.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.3% | 0.5% | 3.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | 1.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| 5/14/2024 | -0.1% | -0.9% | 1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.2% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.9% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/23/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Sales Growth | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 16.7% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Comparable Sales Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 New Stores | 15 | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 33.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 33.2% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | -0.8% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 12.6% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | -0.8% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 24.3% | -0.8% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 2.30 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | -133.3% | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: -6.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | -140.0% | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: -5.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.03 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2025 | ||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/18/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 3.0% | 7.1% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.8% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Gross Margin | 33.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 33.4% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Operating Margin | 12.6% | -3.1% | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted Operating Margin | 13.0% | -3.0% | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 13.4% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 EPS Growth | -6.0% | 100.0% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -3.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted EPS Growth | -5.0% | 150.0% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 0.03 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 348.52 | 2,872 | 1,000,961 | 4,599,217 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Angie | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 357.63 | 1,946 | 695,948 | 1,409,503 | Form |
| 3 | Campbell, Ann Marie | Senior EVP | by Charitable Remainder Trust | Sell | 12122025 | 358.26 | 145 | 51,948 | 4,413,763 | Form |
| 4 | Bastek, William D | EVP, Merchandising | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 423.12 | 2,303 | 974,445 | 10,254,432 | Form |
| 5 | Roseborough, Teresa Wynn | EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 413.23 | 5,483 | 2,265,767 | 6,635,178 | Form |
HD Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis yields a high-conviction 'Buy' rating. The probability-adjusted skew is highly attractive at over 2.0x, driven by the 'WIDENING' competitive moat in the core Pro segment. While the near-term is challenged by cyclical headwinds, the market is mispricing the durability and long-term earnings power of Home Depot's Pro-focused strategy. This creates an opportunity to own a best-in-class operator at a fair price ahead of an eventual cyclical turn.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityHome Depot's business is intrinsically linked to the housing and renovation market, which is subject to economic cycles, particularly interest rate sensitivity. The provided data explicitly labels its revenue archetype as '"Project" Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)' and cites a 'prolonged housing market downturn' as the primary bear case, fitting the Cyclical model.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long-term value driver for Home Depot is its strategic focus and successful penetration of the Professional (Pro) customer segment. This initiative leverages a difficult-to-replicate, Pro-specific supply chain and a suite of services that create significant switching costs for high-value contractors, allowing HD to capture a larger share of the more resilient and higher-ticket professional market.
Mechanism:
By offering an integrated ecosystem (credit, dedicated account management, bulk pricing, job-site delivery), Home Depot becomes an embedded partner in the contractor's workflow. This reduces project delays and saves labor time for the Pro, capturing value through increased transaction volume and larger average ticket sizes, which drives revenue growth that outpaces the broader, more cyclical DIY market.
Supporting Evidence:
- The Pro segment accounts for approximately 50% of total revenue and consistently outperforms the DIY segment.
- The company has made multi-billion dollar investments in a Pro-specific supply chain, including 17 flatbed distribution centers.
- Switching costs are significant for Pros due to the operational lock-in created by HD's ecosystem of credit and digital tools.
- Recent acquisitions like GMS and SRS are strategically aimed at capturing more wallet share in complex project spending.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant headwind is a macroeconomic, sector-wide slowdown driven by high interest rates, which stalls the housing market. This 'lock-in effect' reduces housing turnover and discourages large-scale discretionary renovation projects, directly pressuring demand from both DIY and Pro customer segments and leading to volume declines.
Mechanism:
Elevated interest rates increase the cost of financing for large projects and reduce homeowner mobility, a key driver of renovation spending. This leads to a decline in customer transactions and a mix-shift towards smaller, non-discretionary repair jobs, which pressures comparable sales growth and can lead to margin compression if promotional activity is needed to move inventory.
Supporting Evidence:
- Management cited 'consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing' for lowering FY2025 guidance.
- FY2026 preliminary guidance is for flat to +2% comparable sales, signaling expectations of a soft demand environment.
- Q3 2025 comparable sales growth of 0.2% was driven entirely by a 1.8% increase in ticket, offset by a 1.6% decline in transactions.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable Customer Transactions | Positive YoY Growth | This is the leading indicator of underlying demand. The current reliance on average ticket growth to drive comps is unsustainable. A return to positive transaction growth is necessary to confirm a recovery. |
| Pro vs. DIY Sales Growth Spread | Pro growth > DIY growth by at least 200 bps | Continued outperformance of the Pro segment is the core of the Alpha thesis. A narrowing of this gap would suggest either heightened competition or a more severe downturn affecting all customer types. |
| Inventory Growth vs. Sales Growth | Inventory growth should not exceed sales growth | The recent divergence where inventory grew 9.6% while sales grew 2.8% is a red flag for future gross margin pressure from markdowns. This metric must be monitored to ensure operational efficiency. |
Core Investment Debate
Pro Customer Growth vs. Macro Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Strategic investments in the Pro ecosystem (supply chain, digital tools) will capture a larger share of a resilient market segment, driving growth despite macro softness.
CORE TENSION
Can market share gains in the high-value Pro segment offset the cyclical downturn in housing and weakening consumer spending on big-ticket projects?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH
Management's lowered FY2025 guidance, citing 'consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing', directly validates the Bear stance. Comparable sales are stagnant (+0.2%) only due to price hikes.
BEAR VIEW
Sustained high interest rates and consumer financial stress will cause even the Pro segment to decelerate, leading to negative comparable sales and margin pressure.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 24, 2026 | Q4 & Full-Year 2025 Earnings Release Watch: Official FY2026 comparable sales and gross margin guidance. Any deviation from the preliminary 0-2% comp growth will be critical. |
Feb 17, 2026 | Peer Supplier Earnings (e.g., Builders FirstSource) Watch: BLDR's commentary on demand from professional contractors and remodelers for the upcoming building season. |
Quarterly (Next update likely May 2026) | NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report Watch: Change in 90+ day credit card delinquency rates. A sequential increase indicates rising consumer financial stress. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-19 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Home Depot reported second-quarter earnings. The positive stock reaction suggests the results or outlook were better than the market's low expectations at the time. | Rose significantly by 3.2% $389.95 -> $402.30 |
2025-09-03 | Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference Details: Management presented at the conference, likely reiterating their strategy and outlook following the Q2 earnings report. The market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.3%) $401.42 -> $402.80 |
2025-11-18 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release & Guidance Cut Details: Company reported an EPS of $3.74, missing estimates. Crucially, it lowered full-year guidance, citing weaker consumer demand and housing market pressures, leading to a significant stock drop. | Crashed -6.0% $355.72 -> $334.31 |
2025-12-09 | 2025 Investor Conference & FY2026 Outlook Details: Home Depot provided a cautious preliminary outlook for FY2026, forecasting comparable sales growth of only 0% to 2%, reflecting expected softness in the housing market. | Slight -1.3% pullback $349.91 -> $345.27 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The BEARISH sentiment, driven by a guidance cut and slowing demand, combined with medium visibility, warrants caution. Despite a moderate volatility regime, structural headwinds limit conviction, mandating a conservative position.
Diversification Alternatives
LOW
INDUSTRYWhile also facing macro headwinds, Lowe's focus on the DIY customer could benefit from a 'trade-down' effect on smaller projects if the economy worsens. However, it is fundamentally a weaker operator than HD.
Core Thesis: A direct competitor to Home Depot, offering similar products and services with a stronger focus on the DIY customer segment. Provides a pure-play alternative in the home improvement retail sector.
AZO
SECTORAutoZone's business is less cyclical than home improvement, driven by the non-discretionary need for auto repair. It offers defensive characteristics in a slowing economy as consumers repair older cars.
Core Thesis: A leading retailer of automotive replacement parts, catering to a needs-based demand cycle that is resilient during economic downturns.
How Is The Market Pricing HD?
Trading at a Forward P/E of 25.06 and a Price/Sales (ttm) of 2.22, Home Depot is evolving from a pure-play DIY retailer into a B2B distribution powerhouse for professional contractors, a segment now approaching 50% of total revenue.
Filter all news through the lens of the Professional (Pro) customer segment growth and its impact on margins, as this is the core driver of the business's structural repositioning.
What will confirm the thesis
Pro customer sales growth outpacing DIY sales growth; announcements of new supply chain facilities geared towards Pros; successful integration and organic sales growth from the SRS and GMS acquisitions; positive comparable sales growth, especially in big-ticket transactions over $1,000.
What will damage the thesis
Sustained weakness in the housing market (low housing turnover, high mortgage rates) leading to deferred large-scale projects; loss of market share to Lowe's in the Pro segment; significant contraction in gross margins due to product mix shift towards lower-margin Pro sales; rising SG&A from supply chain investments without commensurate revenue growth.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Minor quarterly fluctuations in DIY sales; individual new store openings (already part of guidance); general consumer sentiment reports not tied directly to home improvement spending; short-term commodity price fluctuations (e.g., lumber).
Repricing Catalyst
The market re-rating hinges on the successful integration of the SRS and GMS acquisitions, which repositions Home Depot as a dominant B2B distributor for professional contractors in roofing, landscaping, and building materials. This strategy aims to capture a larger share of the ~$1.1 trillion total addressable market by embedding Home Depot into the workflow of the higher-spending, more resilient Pro customer.
What HD Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 FY2025 Earnings Press Release, Feb 24 2026
Merchandise & Services Sales (U.S. & International)
$164.7B TTM (100% of Total) · 33.3% MarginWhat It Is
Building Materials, Tools, Hardware, Lumber, Garden Supplies, Home Appliances, Paint, Plumbing, Flooring, and related installation services.
Who Pays & How
Customers are split between Do-It-Yourself (DIY) homeowners (slightly over 50% of revenue) and Professional contractors (Pros) (approaching 50% of revenue). Pros, who represent only ~10% of the customer base, spend more and shop more frequently for their business needs, choosing HD for its vast inventory, convenient locations (over 2,300 stores), and specialized services like the Pro Xtra loyalty program and dedicated supply chain. DIY customers pay for one-stop shopping convenience and product assortment.
Per-unit sale of products and per-project fees for installation services.
Competition
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Lowe's is aggressively pursuing the Pro customer with a relaunched loyalty program and an expanded omnichannel strategy to narrow the market share gap.
Home Depot's primary moat is its immense scale, which provides significant economies of scale in purchasing, allowing for competitive pricing. Its extensive network of over 2,300 stores creates a convenience advantage, and its strong brand recognition, valued at over $52 billion, fosters deep customer loyalty.
HD Evolution: Price Return by Era
1978–1990 · The Warehouse Revolution
Disrupting the Hardware Store
Co-founders Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank opened the first two warehouse-style stores in Atlanta in 1979, offering an unprecedented selection of products at low prices. After its 1981 IPO, the company expanded rapidly, surpassing Lowe's by 1990 to become the largest home improvement retailer in the U.S.
1991–2007 · Aggressive Expansion & Pro Focus
Scale and a Push into B2B
This era was defined by massive store growth, surpassing 2,000 locations by 2005, and international expansion into Canada (1994) and Mexico. A key strategic shift was the focus on professional customers, solidified by major acquisitions like Hughes Supply in 2006 for $3.5 billion, which established a dedicated B2B supply division.
2008–Present · The Interconnected Pro Ecosystem
Becoming a B2B Distribution Platform
Post-financial crisis, Home Depot invested heavily in its 'One Home Depot' strategy, integrating its physical stores with a robust e-commerce platform. The most recent strategic pivot is a multi-billion dollar investment to dominate the Pro customer segment, highlighted by the acquisitions of SRS Distribution (2024) and GMS (2025), transforming parts of the business into a specialized distribution network for contractors.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Mild underperformance and fading; relative trend is a headwind for the thesis. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-9 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Downtrend · Death Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Deteriorating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Mild Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Neutral / Mixed
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Falling
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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