Grindr (GRND)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.56 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Grindr (GRND)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.56Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% | Key risksGRND key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny over its handling of sensitive LGBTQ+ user data and [2] governance uncertainty stemming from board investigations and significant insider selling. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9% |
| Key risksGRND key risks include [1] regulatory scrutiny over its handling of sensitive LGBTQ+ user data and [2] governance uncertainty stemming from board investigations and significant insider selling. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GRND Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -13.1% movement in Grindr's (GRND) stock price around the specified period:
1. Grindr's Board Rejected a Take-Private Bid: In November 2025, Grindr's stock tumbled after a special committee of its board decided to end discussions regarding an unsolicited proposal from major shareholders to take the company private at $18 per share. This rejection was primarily due to "continued uncertainty" surrounding the financing for the proposed transaction.
2. Failure of Major Shareholders to Secure Financing: The collapse of the take-private bid in late 2025 was a direct result of the major shareholders, Raymond Zage and James Lu, being unable to secure the necessary $1 billion in financing for the deal. This inability to obtain definitive financing led the special committee to conclude that further discussions were not in the company's best interests.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRND Return | � | � | -54% | 89% | 103% | -25% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 613% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRND Win Rate | � | 64% | 75% | 67% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRND Max Drawdown | � | � | -54% | 0% | -8% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRND | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 684.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Grindr's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2022. A -87.3% loss requires a 684.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Grindr Earnings Notes | |||
| Time To Buy Grindr Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Is Grindr Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| GRND's One-Month Drop Offers a Chance to Reevaluate LLY | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Grindr (GRND) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Grindr (GRND) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Grindr (GRND) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Grindr (GRND) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Grindr (GRND) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Grindr (GRND) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Grindr Stock To $16? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Can Grindr Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Has GRND Stock Become A Bargain After Dropping 25%? | August 15th, 2025 | ||
| After INTU’s 5.7% Single Day Slide, GRND Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | August 12th, 2025 | ||
| Has GRND Stock Become A Bargain After Dropping 21%? | August 6th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GRND. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | GRND | Grindr | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | GRND | Grindr | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Grindr
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 412 |
| Op Inc LTM | 65 |
| FCF LTM | 197 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 228 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| P/EBIT | 37.4 |
| P/E | -2.8 |
| P/CFO | 31.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -38.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -39.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 94.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -41.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -51.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 11.0% | 5.8% | -1.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | -12.3% | -8.7% | -12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.8% | -3.8% | -5.0% |
| 1/23/2025 | 8.1% | 6.1% | 13.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.6% | -3.0% | 4.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% |
| 3/7/2024 | 7.3% | 13.3% | 22.8% |
| 11/13/2023 | 15.7% | 14.5% | 41.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 8.5% | 11.1% | 18.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -6.1% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.7% | 16.8% | 41.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -11.7% | -23.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 10192022 | S-4/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |