Global Payments (GPN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $82.205 | Market Cap: $19.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Global Payments (GPN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $82.205Market Cap: $19.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | Key risksGPN key risks include [1] the failure to realize expected growth benefits and cost savings from integrating its Worldpay acquisition and [2] operational underperformance tied to its ongoing business transformation activities. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Digital Payments, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Key risksGPN key risks include [1] the failure to realize expected growth benefits and cost savings from integrating its Worldpay acquisition and [2] operational underperformance tied to its ongoing business transformation activities. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GPN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Global Payments (GPN) stock moved by -6.9% due to several key factors.
1. Analyst Downgrades and Cautious Outlooks: Rothschild & Co Redburn issued a "sell" rating on Global Payments in early December 2025, contributing to negative investor sentiment. Additionally, StockInvest.us forecasted a potential fall of over 12% for the stock in the subsequent three months, indicating a cautious short-term outlook.
2. Ongoing Worldpay Acquisition Integration Risks and Financing: While the European Commission approved the Worldpay acquisition in December 2025, the extensive integration process, the company's efforts to market up to $6.2 billion in bond sales to finance the deal in November 2025, and the anticipated closing in the first quarter of 2026 likely fostered continued investor uncertainty regarding execution and potential financial leverage.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPN Return | 19% | -37% | -26% | 29% | -11% | -26% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 2% | -20% | 17% | 43% | -9% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPN Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 52% | 42% | 65% | 67% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPN Max Drawdown | -36% | -45% | -31% | -3% | -27% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -14% | -31% | -10% | -4% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FISV, SYF, MA, V, PYPL. See GPN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FISV, SYF, MA, V, PYPL
In The Past
Global Payments's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/29/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -8.1% |
| 02282022 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -15.2% | -29.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -8.1% |
| 02282022 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -15.2% | -29.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Global Payments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.0 |
| Rev LTM | 25,700 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,296 |
| FCF LTM | 7,658 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,246 |
| CFO LTM | 8,088 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,600 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 39.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.0 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.8 |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | 7,152 | 6,205 | 5,666 | 4,688 | 4,099 |
| Issuer Solutions | 2,399 | 2,246 | 2,166 | 1,981 | 605 |
| Consumer Solutions | 183 | 620 | 784 | 830 | 227 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -79 | -96 | -91 | -76 | -19 |
| Total | 9,654 | 8,976 | 8,524 | 7,424 | 4,912 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant Solutions | 2,345 | 2,040 | 1,726 | 1,163 | 1,149 |
| Issuer Solutions | 410 | 356 | 333 | 278 | 82 |
| Impairment of goodwill | 0 | -833 | |||
| Consumer Solutions | -4 | 54 | 136 | 139 | 19 |
| Net gain (loss) on business dispositions | -137 | -199 | |||
| Corporate | -898 | -778 | -836 | -685 | -459 |
| Total | 1,716 | 640 | 1,359 | 894 | 791 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 3.7% | -1.8% | 3.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 9.1% | 5.1% | 11.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.0% | 4.9% | -3.2% |
| 2/13/2025 | -4.3% | -3.0% | -13.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.3% | 8.4% | 20.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | 6.9% | 11.5% | 17.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -11.2% | -9.7% | -18.1% |
| 2/14/2024 | 2.1% | -2.7% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.1% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -7.0% | -13.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.5% | 11.5% | 23.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -22.2% | -20.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Watson Patricia A | 11102025 | Buy | 75.06 | 1,331 | 99,905 | 198,984 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |