Tearsheet

First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.08 | Market Cap: $65.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.08
Market Cap: $65.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -855%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -855%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.5%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FGBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) stock moved by approximately -39.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. First Guaranty Bancshares reported significantly worse-than-expected financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company announced an earnings per share (EPS) of ($3.01) against a consensus estimate of ($0.09) and revenue of $24.1 million compared to an anticipated $30.4 million. This substantial miss led to the stock trading down immediately following the announcement.

2. The company demonstrated negative financial health indicators, including a negative return on equity and net margin. For Q3 2025, First Guaranty Bancshares recorded a negative return on equity ranging from 4.73% to 20.76% and a negative net margin from 4.49% to 25.11%, indicating poor profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FGBI Return-15%30%18%-50%7%-56%-69%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FGBI Win Rate42%58%58%25%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FGBI Max Drawdown-48%-10%-1%-59%-19%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFGBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven217.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven601 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1004 days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

First Guaranty Bancshares's stock fell -68.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2022. A -68.5% loss requires a 217.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI)

Better Bets than First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FGBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for First Guaranty Bancshares

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FGBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Gu.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price5.0811.3121.9516.4715.0917.4415.78
Mkt Cap0.10.30.2--84.20.2
Rev LTM992696090268,96795
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM10-52020-843,6577
FCF 3Y Avg13-22916-52,31713
CFO LTM11-51920-443,9418
CFO 3Y Avg20-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

FGBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Gu.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM-6.0%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.5%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%0.0%
Rev Chg Q-34.3%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-11.2%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM11.0%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%14.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.1%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%19.2%
FCF/Rev LTM10.2%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%12.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.8%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%17.8%

Valuation

FGBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Gu.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap0.10.30.2--84.20.2
P/S1.11.12.7--7.41.9
P/EBIT-------
P/E-10.14.911.6--28.88.3
P/CFO9.7-0.67.9--16.88.8
Total Yield-8.6%20.2%13.5%--3.5%8.5%
Dividend Yield1.3%0.0%4.9%--0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.2%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E1.72.60.2--0.00.9
Net D/E-8.61.8-4.5---0.4-2.5

Returns

FGBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameFirst Gu.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn-18.2%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.1%
3M Rtn-39.7%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn-41.3%10.7%29.3%--46.1%20.0%
12M Rtn-65.4%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%9.1%
3Y Rtn-76.7%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%-8.0%
1M Excs Rtn-18.2%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-46.1%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-56.0%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%5.3%
12M Excs Rtn-77.9%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%-4.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-148.8%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-77.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment93109999769
Total93109999769


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,028
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.5%
Average Daily Volume17,289
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.45
Basic Shares Quantity12,910,785
Short % of Basic Shares0.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025818202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211109202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0REYNOLDS MARSHALL T 10022025Buy8.0531,056250,00115,677,568Form
1Smith Edgar R. III 10022025Buy8.05141,3281,137,6902,642,574Form
2McAnally Bruce 10022025Buy8.0531,056250,0011,672,468Form
3WALKER ROBERT W 9152025Buy8.203,00024,600281,063Form
4WALKER ROBERT W 8292025Buy7.973,75029,888249,270Form