Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -56%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 6.2%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -51%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Waste-to-Energy Solutions.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -56%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 6.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Waste-to-Energy Solutions.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -19%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -51%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -51%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why FutureFuel (FF) stock moved by -11.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. 1. Substantial Revenue Decline in Q3 2025: FutureFuel reported a significant 56% decrease in revenues for the third quarter of 2025, totaling $22.7 million compared to $51.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. 2. 2. Swing to Net Loss: The company experienced a considerable financial downturn, posting a net loss of $9.3 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, in Q3 2025, a sharp decline from a net income of $1.2 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, in the prior-year period. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FF Return38%-27%10%-23%31%-34%-27%
Peers Return13%33%-33%-1%19%13%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FF Win Rate58%33%50%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate43%48%28%37%37%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FF Max Drawdown-27%-33%-22%-27%-12%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-2%-46%-27%-31%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven202.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven25 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven197 days1480 days

Compare to FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE


In The Past

FutureFuel's stock fell -67.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -67.0% loss requires a 202.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FutureFuel (FF)

Better Bets than FutureFuel (FF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FutureFuel

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FFFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameFutureFu.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Price3.3758.922.336.831.07-3.37
Mkt Cap0.13.20.50.10.1-0.1
Rev LTM1663,502803711-80
Op Inc LTM-32349-496-1--1
FCF LTM-10121-920-1--1
FCF 3Y Avg22220-1091-16-1
CFO LTM9242-565-1-5
CFO 3Y Avg33348-556-14-6

Growth & Margins

FFFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameFutureFu.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Rev Chg LTM-51.1%-1.3%341.8%-1.5%11,012.0%--1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-19.1%-1.7%729.7%-2.0%3,661.4%--1.7%
Rev Chg Q-50.7%-2.8%725.3%8.0%-100.0%--2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-18.1%-0.7%90.8%2.3%-0.2%--0.2%
Op Mgn LTM-19.3%10.0%-60.6%16.0%-13.3%--13.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.7%10.5%-494.2%12.9%-13,399.3%--0.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-12.1%0.2%126.0%3.2%16.5%-3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM5.4%6.9%-70.4%13.4%-8.5%-5.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.6%9.8%-303.8%14.1%-12,027.4%-9.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.9%3.5%-114.6%1.0%-10.9%--5.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.5%6.2%-691.7%3.4%-13,970.5%-3.4%

Valuation

FFFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameFutureFu.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Cap0.13.20.50.10.1-0.1
P/S1.00.93.81.66.4-1.6
P/EBIT-6.510.6-6.410.5-6.4--6.4
P/E-6.428.5-5.320.2-6.1--5.3
P/CFO18.813.5-5.412.3-74.4-12.3
Total Yield-9.4%4.7%-19.0%5.0%-16.5%--9.4%
Dividend Yield6.2%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.1%5.7%-49.1%4.4%-12.5%-4.4%
D/E0.00.60.60.10.0-0.1
Net D/E-0.60.60.4-0.0-0.1--0.0

Returns

FFFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameFutureFu.H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
1M Rtn-12.9%2.7%2.6%-23.0%-35.2%--12.9%
3M Rtn-14.7%0.3%42.9%-31.1%-32.3%--14.7%
6M Rtn-11.6%6.0%104.4%56.7%-31.8%-6.0%
12M Rtn-32.0%-21.4%57.4%78.7%-22.7%--21.4%
3Y Rtn-36.6%-23.8%8.9%130.6%-61.1%--23.8%
1M Excs Rtn-12.9%2.7%2.7%-23.0%-35.1%--12.9%
3M Excs Rtn-19.4%-8.8%37.6%-36.8%-41.7%--19.4%
6M Excs Rtn-26.3%-8.7%89.7%41.9%-46.6%--8.7%
12M Excs Rtn-45.2%-35.7%27.7%54.9%-41.3%--35.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.4%-94.3%-55.1%68.2%-132.9%--94.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Biofuels289315254125100
Chemicals79816879105
Total368396321205205


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity400,754
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.8%
Average Daily Volume193,944
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.07
Basic Shares Quantity43,803,243
Short % of Basic Shares0.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021315202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211109202110-Q 9/30/2021