FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.17 | Market Cap: $175.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.17Market Cap: $175.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -131%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen Infrastructure. | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -131%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FCEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) has experienced significant events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, which have influenced its stock performance. While a precise 71% movement needs to be calculated with definitive opening and closing prices for the exact period, the available information highlights several key developments that would explain substantial shifts in investor sentiment. Here are five key points regarding FuelCell Energy's stock movement during this approximate period: 1. 1. Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Report: FuelCell Energy announced its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 9, 2025, reporting a substantial 97% year-over-year increase in revenue to $46.7 million, though it missed analyst expectations slightly. Despite an increase in net loss, the stock initially slipped but then saw a rebound, trading over 12% higher after the announcement. This suggests that the revenue growth and possibly adjusted net loss per share beating estimates contributed positively. 2. 2. Strategic Focus on Data Centers and AI Infrastructure: Investor enthusiasm for FuelCell Energy has been significantly tied to the company's carbonate fuel cell platforms being seen as a key solution for providing reliable, continuous power to energy-intensive AI data centers. A partnership with Diversified Energy to deliver up to 360 megawatts to data centers in Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky is expected to drive substantial revenue growth. The broader positive sentiment in the clean energy sector, partly driven by surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence, has also positively impacted FCEL. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FCEL Return | 345% | -53% | -47% | -42% | -81% | -23% | -91% |
| Peers Return | 51% | -16% | 9% | 70% | 37% | 11% | 258% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FCEL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 8% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 21% | 31% | 42% | 42% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FCEL Max Drawdown | -57% | -54% | -51% | -63% | -88% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -21% | -27% | -2% | -11% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMSC, THR, LYTS, AIGO, SONC. See FCEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2614.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -99.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17396.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 550.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMSC, THR, LYTS, AIGO, SONC
In The Past
FuelCell Energy's stock fell -96.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -96.3% loss requires a 2614.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FCEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FuelCell Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 388 |
| Op Inc LTM | 25 |
| FCF LTM | 21 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22 |
| CFO LTM | 25 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 25 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 36.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 21.9 |
| P/CFO | 20.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -17.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12272024 | 10-K 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6102024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12192023 | 10-K 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6082023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12202022 | 10-K 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12292021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
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