Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.535 | Market Cap: $761.8 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.535Market Cap: $761.8 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -66% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -100 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -111% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -116% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% | ||
| Key risksBLDP key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -123% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -100 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -111% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -116% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20% |
| Key risksBLDP key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BLDP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Ballard Power Systems reported a significant improvement in its Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing by 120% year-over-year to $32.5 million, primarily driven by deliveries to bus and rail customers.
2. The company achieved substantial gross margin expansion in Q3 2025, reaching 15%, a 71-point increase compared to the previous year, attributed to lower manufacturing overhead costs from restructuring actions.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLDP Return | 226% | -46% | -62% | -23% | -55% | 60% | -63% |
| Peers Return | 408% | -24% | -25% | -32% | -9% | 87% | 236% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLDP Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 42% | 40% | 42% | 35% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLDP Max Drawdown | 0% | -49% | -64% | -34% | -66% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -36% | -42% | -50% | -50% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLUG, CMI, BE, FCEL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1197.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 695.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1826 days | 1480 days |
Compare to POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR
In The Past
Ballard Power Systems's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1197.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ballard Power Systems Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Day 11 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 58% Return (vs. 80% YTD) [9/24/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 10 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 54% Return (vs. 76% YTD) [9/23/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 9 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 52% Return (vs. 73% YTD) [9/22/2025] | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| BLDP Stock Up 58% after 11-Day Win Streak | September 25th, 2025 | ||
| BLDP Stock Up 54% after 10-Day Win Streak | September 24th, 2025 | ||
| BLDP Stock Up 52% after 9-Day Win Streak | September 23rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BLDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ballard Power Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 676 |
| Op Inc LTM | -100 |
| FCF LTM | -104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -200 |
| CFO LTM | -92 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 57.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -86.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -123.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -63.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -111.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -84.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -156.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | -0.7 |
| P/CFO | -1.4 |
| Total Yield | -15.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -14.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 59.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -55.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 47.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 27.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -123.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3172023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |