Tearsheet

Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $2.8 | Market Cap: $839.6 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $2.8
Market Cap: $839.6 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -175%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -135%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -66%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -175%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -135%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -66%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BLDP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that likely contributed to the upward movement of Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) stock, for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Ballard Power Systems announced robust financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 13, 2025. The company reported a 120% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $32.5 million, primarily driven by strong bus and rail deliveries. Gross margin improved significantly to 15%, a 71-point increase compared to the prior year. This positive financial performance, alongside substantial cost reductions, likely boosted investor confidence.

**2. Progress in Strategic Realignment and Cost Optimization.** Throughout 2025, and notably highlighted in the Q2 and Q3 results, Ballard continued its strategic realignment efforts aimed at achieving positive cash flow by the end of 2027. These initiatives included a significant reduction in annualized operating costs (approximately 30% relative to the first half of 2025), workforce adjustments, and a sharpened focus on core fuel cell products. The restructuring led to a 40% reduction in cash operating costs and a 36% decrease in total operating expenses year-over-year in Q3 2025.

**3. Expansion of Orders and Deliveries in Heavy-Duty Mobility.** The company continued to secure and deliver on significant orders within its heavy-duty mobility segment. Q3 2025 revenue was largely propelled by increased bus and rail deliveries to North American and European customers, with heavy-duty mobility revenue growing 83% year-over-year. Earlier in 2025, Ballard also announced a multi-year supply agreement for 50 FCmove®-HD+ engines (totaling approximately 5 MW) for the bus market in the EU.

**4. Launch of New Fuel Cell Product (FCmove®-SC).** In September 2025, Ballard launched its new FCmove®-SC fuel cell at Busworld. This new product was met with positive customer reception, offering improved performance and lifecycle cost, aiming for parity with diesel engines. Product innovation and the introduction of advanced solutions are crucial for capturing market share in the evolving hydrogen fuel cell industry.

**5. Strategic Partnership for Hydrogen Business Expansion in Korea.** On December 4, 2025, Ballard Power Systems signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Kolon Industries to collaborate on the hydrogen business in Korea. This partnership aims to establish a stable supply system for critical fuel cell components and expand cooperation in product development and performance improvement, signaling potential for growth in new markets and strengthened supply chains.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BLDP Return226%-46%-62%-23%-55%69%-61%
Peers Return1%17%6%54%55%17%250%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BLDP Win Rate58%33%33%42%25%70% 
Peers Win Rate38%48%33%46%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BLDP Max Drawdown0%-49%-64%-34%-66%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-21%-6%-6%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBLDPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-92.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1197.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven304 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven695.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1826 days1480 days

Compare to POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR


In The Past

Ballard Power Systems's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1197.2% gain to breakeven.

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About Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)

Better Bets than Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BLDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ballard Power Systems

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BLDPPOWLAIGOSONCETNEMRMedian
NameBallard .Powell I.Aigo Sonic Li.Eaton Emerson . 
Mkt Price2.80336.93--338.93136.64236.78
Mkt Cap0.84.1--131.876.840.4
Rev LTM731,081--26,63317,7799,430
Op Inc LTM-127211--5,0493,3391,775
FCF LTM-12081--3,3222,7411,411
FCF 3Y Avg-135130--3,1142,0431,087
CFO LTM-98101--4,1043,1721,636
CFO 3Y Avg-103141--3,8812,4251,283

Growth & Margins

BLDPPOWLAIGOSONCETNEMRMedian
NameBallard .Powell I.Aigo Sonic Li.Eaton Emerson . 
Rev Chg LTM-30.5%14.3%--8.2%4.8%6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.1%30.0%--9.7%24.9%17.3%
Rev Chg Q11.5%-0.7%--10.1%3.9%7.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%-0.2%--2.5%1.0%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-175.2%19.5%--19.0%18.8%18.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-183.4%14.1%--17.8%17.5%15.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM24.8%0.3%--0.1%0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-134.8%9.3%--15.4%17.8%12.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-131.8%16.5%--15.8%14.7%15.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-165.9%7.5%--12.5%15.4%10.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-173.6%15.4%--12.6%12.4%12.5%

Valuation

BLDPPOWLAIGOSONCETNEMRMedian
NameBallard .Powell I.Aigo Sonic Li.Eaton Emerson . 
Mkt Cap0.84.1--131.876.840.4
P/S6.62.3--5.54.24.8
P/EBIT-1.612.1--29.023.317.7
P/E-1.614.5--37.128.321.4
P/CFO-4.925.2--35.523.624.4
Total Yield-62.3%7.2%--3.0%3.9%3.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%--0.3%0.4%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-18.5%10.4%--2.7%3.3%3.0%
D/E0.00.0--0.10.20.1
Net D/E-1.1-0.2--0.10.2-0.0

Returns

BLDPPOWLAIGOSONCETNEMRMedian
NameBallard .Powell I.Aigo Sonic Li.Eaton Emerson . 
1M Rtn-16.9%-11.3%---10.0%-0.4%-10.7%
3M Rtn51.4%24.6%---2.4%3.1%13.8%
6M Rtn97.2%84.9%--4.4%12.5%48.7%
12M Rtn93.1%16.0%---9.1%3.5%9.7%
3Y Rtn-52.9%1,182.9%--120.6%52.4%86.5%
1M Excs Rtn-18.2%-12.6%---11.3%-1.6%-11.9%
3M Excs Rtn34.9%19.9%---8.4%-2.3%8.8%
6M Excs Rtn81.7%69.4%---11.1%-3.0%33.2%
12M Excs Rtn69.6%9.8%---21.2%-9.5%0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-123.5%1,209.5%--44.9%-19.5%12.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Product and service revenues10282105104106
Total10282105104106


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,056,367
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume6,744,276
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.08
Basic Shares Quantity299,844,902
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
331202550620256-K 3/31/2025
12312024313202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202481220246-K 6/30/2024
331202450720246-K 3/31/2024
12312023311202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110720236-K 9/30/2023
630202380920236-K 6/30/2023
331202351020236-K 3/31/2023
12312022317202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110720226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
331202250920226-K 3/31/2022
12312021314202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021110920216-K 9/30/2021
630202180620216-K 6/30/2021