Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $2.8 | Market Cap: $839.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $2.8Market Cap: $839.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -175% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -135%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -66% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -111% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen as a Fuel. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -127 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -175% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -135%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -66% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BLDP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that likely contributed to the upward movement of Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) stock, for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Ballard Power Systems announced robust financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 13, 2025. The company reported a 120% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $32.5 million, primarily driven by strong bus and rail deliveries. Gross margin improved significantly to 15%, a 71-point increase compared to the prior year. This positive financial performance, alongside substantial cost reductions, likely boosted investor confidence.
**2. Progress in Strategic Realignment and Cost Optimization.** Throughout 2025, and notably highlighted in the Q2 and Q3 results, Ballard continued its strategic realignment efforts aimed at achieving positive cash flow by the end of 2027. These initiatives included a significant reduction in annualized operating costs (approximately 30% relative to the first half of 2025), workforce adjustments, and a sharpened focus on core fuel cell products. The restructuring led to a 40% reduction in cash operating costs and a 36% decrease in total operating expenses year-over-year in Q3 2025.
**3. Expansion of Orders and Deliveries in Heavy-Duty Mobility.** The company continued to secure and deliver on significant orders within its heavy-duty mobility segment. Q3 2025 revenue was largely propelled by increased bus and rail deliveries to North American and European customers, with heavy-duty mobility revenue growing 83% year-over-year. Earlier in 2025, Ballard also announced a multi-year supply agreement for 50 FCmove®-HD+ engines (totaling approximately 5 MW) for the bus market in the EU.
**4. Launch of New Fuel Cell Product (FCmove®-SC).** In September 2025, Ballard launched its new FCmove®-SC fuel cell at Busworld. This new product was met with positive customer reception, offering improved performance and lifecycle cost, aiming for parity with diesel engines. Product innovation and the introduction of advanced solutions are crucial for capturing market share in the evolving hydrogen fuel cell industry.
**5. Strategic Partnership for Hydrogen Business Expansion in Korea.** On December 4, 2025, Ballard Power Systems signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Kolon Industries to collaborate on the hydrogen business in Korea. This partnership aims to establish a stable supply system for critical fuel cell components and expand cooperation in product development and performance improvement, signaling potential for growth in new markets and strengthened supply chains.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLDP Return | 226% | -46% | -62% | -23% | -55% | 69% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 17% | 6% | 54% | 55% | 17% | 250% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLDP Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 48% | 33% | 46% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLDP Max Drawdown | 0% | -49% | -64% | -34% | -66% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -21% | -6% | -6% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1197.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 695.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1826 days | 1480 days |
Compare to POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR
In The Past
Ballard Power Systems's stock fell -92.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -92.3% loss requires a 1197.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Ballard Power Systems Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Day 11 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 58% Return (vs. 80% YTD) [9/24/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 10 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 54% Return (vs. 76% YTD) [9/23/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 9 of Gains Streak for Ballard Power Systems Stock with 52% Return (vs. 73% YTD) [9/22/2025] | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| BLDP Stock Up 58% after 11-Day Win Streak | September 25th, 2025 | ||
| BLDP Stock Up 54% after 10-Day Win Streak | September 24th, 2025 | ||
| BLDP Stock Up 52% after 9-Day Win Streak | September 23rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BLDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ballard Power Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 236.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.4 |
| Rev LTM | 9,430 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,775 |
| FCF LTM | 1,411 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,087 |
| CFO LTM | 1,636 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,283 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.4 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 24.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3172023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8062021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |