Tearsheet

FAT Brands (FAT)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.4473 | Market Cap: $8.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

FAT Brands (FAT)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.4473
Market Cap: $8.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -140%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.5
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 30%
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -50 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Consumer Services & Hospitality. Themes include Restaurant Franchising.
  Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4242%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -645%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 30%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Consumer Services & Hospitality. Themes include Restaurant Franchising.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -140%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165%
4 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.5
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -50 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.7%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 4242%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -645%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the significant movement in FAT Brands' stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025: 1. Debt Acceleration and Potential Bankruptcy Threat: On November 25, 2025, FAT Brands received acceleration notices from UMB Bank, the trustee, declaring approximately $1.26 billion in securitized debt immediately due and payable. The company disclosed that it does not possess the immediate cash to meet this substantial debt obligation, raising concerns about a potential bankruptcy filing.

2. Sustained Net Losses and Deteriorating Financial Metrics: FAT Brands reported a net loss of $58.2 million, or $3.39 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from a $44.8 million net loss in the same period of 2024. The company has recorded negative results for four consecutive quarters, exhibiting a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -2.52, a low price-to-book ratio of -0.06, and a drastic decline in operating profit over the last five years.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FAT Return170%87%-50%33%-4%-91%-71%
Peers Return1%7%-4%18%21%3%53%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FAT Win Rate58%75%42%50%42%17% 
Peers Win Rate58%53%40%50%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FAT Max Drawdown-61%-5%-51%0%-22%-92% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-13%-25%-11%-25%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: QSR, YUM, DIN, EAT, BLMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven208.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven143 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven224.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven496 days120 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

FAT Brands's stock fell -67.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/28/2021. A -67.6% loss requires a 208.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FAT Brands (FAT)

Better Bets than FAT Brands (FAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FAT Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FATQSRYUMDINEATBLMNMedian
NameFAT Bran.Restaura.Yum Bran.Dine Bra.Brinker .Bloomin . 
Mkt Price0.4570.87151.0634.05144.457.0952.46
Mkt Cap0.023.242.00.56.50.63.5
Rev LTM5749,1068,0618665,5943,9534,774
Op Inc LTM-502,3482,485137607135372
FCF LTM-751,3541,56488470100285
FCF 3Y Avg-741,2401,41386264111188
CFO LTM-651,5881,906114737277507
CFO 3Y Avg-521,4051,712116484339412

Growth & Margins

FATQSRYUMDINEATBLMNMedian
NameFAT Bran.Restaura.Yum Bran.Dine Bra.Brinker .Bloomin . 
Rev Chg LTM-5.3%21.8%11.6%6.5%23.2%7.7%9.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.6%14.2%6.4%-2.1%13.2%-2.9%9.8%
Rev Chg Q-2.3%15.9%8.4%10.8%18.5%2.1%9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.6%3.8%1.9%2.5%3.9%0.5%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-8.7%25.8%30.8%15.8%10.9%3.4%13.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.7%28.8%31.7%19.8%7.6%5.6%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.6%-0.0%-2.0%0.6%-0.5%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-11.3%17.4%23.6%13.1%13.2%7.0%13.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-9.6%18.1%23.0%13.9%9.8%8.5%11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.1%14.9%19.4%10.1%8.4%2.5%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.7%16.0%18.9%10.3%5.2%2.8%7.8%

Valuation

FATQSRYUMDINEATBLMNMedian
NameFAT Bran.Restaura.Yum Bran.Dine Bra.Brinker .Bloomin . 
Mkt Cap0.023.242.00.56.50.63.5
P/S0.02.35.20.41.00.20.7
P/EBIT-0.49.816.92.99.99.29.5
P/E-0.024.529.210.312.8-10.611.5
P/CFO-0.113.222.23.17.72.25.4
Total Yield-2,777.6%9.2%5.3%18.5%7.8%0.1%6.6%
Dividend Yield29.9%5.1%1.8%8.8%0.0%9.6%6.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-124.4%5.8%3.6%18.9%7.4%9.4%6.6%
D/E42.50.80.34.60.33.62.2
Net D/E42.40.70.24.10.33.52.1

Returns

FATQSRYUMDINEATBLMNMedian
NameFAT Bran.Restaura.Yum Bran.Dine Bra.Brinker .Bloomin . 
1M Rtn-66.9%3.2%1.8%28.5%27.6%4.7%4.0%
3M Rtn-76.3%13.7%1.5%42.5%-6.0%4.6%3.1%
6M Rtn-82.4%7.4%5.9%34.2%-17.3%-10.2%-2.1%
12M Rtn-91.8%7.7%12.4%18.2%13.0%-38.9%10.1%
3Y Rtn-91.0%16.1%22.7%-41.5%312.0%-61.5%-12.7%
1M Excs Rtn-68.0%2.8%2.0%34.2%27.4%9.6%6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-79.9%8.8%-1.3%35.1%-8.7%-0.2%-0.7%
6M Excs Rtn-96.7%-6.8%-8.3%20.0%-31.5%-24.4%-16.4%
12M Excs Rtn-105.0%-8.1%-1.7%0.2%0.6%-56.2%-4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-164.6%-54.7%-48.8%-114.7%266.6%-134.0%-84.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment480 1191823
Advertising fees 38   
Factory revenues 34   
Franchise fees 4   
Other revenue 3   
Restaurant sales 241   
Royalties 88   
Total4804071191823


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity576,302
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202585.7%
Average Daily Volume794,794
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity17,872,052
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-11.2%-16.0% 
7/30/2025-4.2%-13.4%-24.4%
5/8/2025-4.5%-6.6%-2.4%
2/27/2025-4.1%-6.7%-17.2%
10/30/20240.9%0.6%5.1%
7/31/20243.8%4.0%2.6%
3/7/2024-2.3%-13.3%-10.5%
10/26/2023-5.3%3.6%-1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive6117
# Negative14913
Median Positive2.7%4.0%9.5%
Median Negative-3.8%-6.7%-6.0%
Max Positive10.5%92.3%41.3%
Max Negative-11.6%-16.0%-34.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/26/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Elenowitz Mark6032025Buy2.201,0002,20022,440Form