Douglas Elliman (DOUG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.66 | Market Cap: $225.0 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services
Douglas Elliman (DOUG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.66Market Cap: $225.0 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Real Estate Data Analytics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -34 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 70% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DOUG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide specific real-time stock movement analysis for the period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, as this timeframe is in the future and I do not have access to future market data or news events.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DOUG Return | - | - | -63% | -23% | -43% | 54% | -75% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 6% | -41% | 64% | -3% | 66% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DOUG Win Rate | - | 25% | 42% | 42% | 50% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 38% | 25% | 43% | 37% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DOUG Max Drawdown | - | - | -68% | -58% | -65% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -18% | -43% | -8% | -20% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPEN, GBR, GYRO, LHAI, CBRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DOUG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 618.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to OPEN, GBR, GYRO, LHAI, CBRE
In The Past
Douglas Elliman's stock fell -86.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -86.1% loss requires a 618.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Douglas Elliman Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DOUG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Douglas Elliman
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.2 |
| Rev LTM | 523 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1 |
| FCF LTM | 0 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 49 |
| CFO LTM | 0 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 49 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.2 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | -4.5 |
| P/E | -4.1 |
| P/CFO | -0.5 |
| Total Yield | -1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |