European Wax Center (EWCZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.75 | Market Cap: $162.7 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Household Products
European Wax Center (EWCZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.75Market Cap: $162.7 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Household Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.2% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Key risksEWCZ key risks include [1] a challenged franchise model leading to stalled growth and anticipated net location closures, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Personal Beauty & Grooming Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 37% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Personal Beauty & Grooming Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.2% |
| Key risksEWCZ key risks include [1] a challenged franchise model leading to stalled growth and anticipated net location closures, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EWCZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why European Wax Center (EWCZ) stock moved by approximately -12.8% in the period leading up to December 18, 2025:
1. Negative Technical Signals and Momentum: The stock experienced a significant drop following a "sell signal from a pivot top point on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, and so far it has fallen -11.53%." This indicates a negative technical trend and bearish investor sentiment.
2. Outlook for Net Center Closings: European Wax Center's financial outlook for fiscal year 2025, reiterated in both its Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 earnings reports, projected 28 to 50 net center closings. This potential contraction in its physical footprint could signal concerns about growth opportunities to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EWCZ Return | � | � | -54% | 9% | -51% | -44% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -25% | -25% | 21% | 19% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EWCZ Win Rate | � | 75% | 50% | 33% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 58% | 47% | 50% | 45% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EWCZ Max Drawdown | � | � | -54% | -3% | -63% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -46% | -53% | -41% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ULTA, RGS, PLNT, SBH, SKIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EWCZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to IPAR, CENT, CL, KMB, CHD
In The Past
European Wax Center's stock fell -63.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -63.4% loss requires a 173.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| European Wax Center Earnings Notes | ||
| European Wax Center Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EWCZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for European Wax Center
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 795 |
| Op Inc LTM | 190 |
| FCF LTM | 116 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 108 |
| CFO LTM | 168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 157 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.5 |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 14.0% | 0.8% | 11.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 13.8% | 5.0% | -11.3% |
| 3/11/2025 | -12.9% | -17.4% | -35.6% |
| 11/14/2024 | -23.2% | -28.7% | -24.6% |
| 8/14/2024 | -27.0% | -10.4% | -2.2% |
| 5/15/2024 | 4.9% | -3.5% | 5.9% |
| 3/6/2024 | 16.9% | 3.3% | -6.5% |
| 11/8/2023 | -11.0% | -12.4% | -4.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -10.4% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 25.5% | 19.4% |
| Max Negative | -27.0% | -28.7% | -35.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 10/4/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 7/5/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 4/5/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 1/4/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 10-Q 10/5/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 7/6/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 4/6/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 1/6/2024 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |