Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -135 Mil
2  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.97
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.97
5 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -135 Mil
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ERAS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate 108% stock movement for Erasca (ERAS) between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments: 1. Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets. During this period, several financial analysts raised their ratings and price targets for Erasca. Stifel Nicolaus, for example, increased its price target to $6 from $4 on November 6, 2025, while Guggenheim raised its target to $5 from $3 on November 14, 2025, both maintaining a "Buy" rating on the shares.

2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings. Erasca reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 12, 2025, announcing earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.10. This positive earnings surprise likely contributed to investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ERAS Return---72%-51%18%27%-80%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%3%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ERAS Win Rate-40%42%25%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ERAS Max Drawdown---75%-61%-22%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventERASS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1357.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Erasca's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -93.1% loss requires a 1357.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Erasca (ERAS)

Better Bets than Erasca (ERAS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ERAS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Erasca

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ERASVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameErasca Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price3.27455.482.501.2113.6921.908.48
Mkt Cap0.9116.4--0.6-0.9
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-135-92-7--124-70-92
FCF LTM-1083,337-7--87-64-64
FCF 3Y Avg-1222,064-8----8
CFO LTM-983,718-7--87-64-64
CFO 3Y Avg-1042,419-8----8

Growth & Margins

ERASVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameErasca Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

ERASVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameErasca Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.9116.4--0.6-0.9
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-6.922.4---4.8--4.8
P/E-7.327.2---5.2--5.2
P/CFO-9.426.9---6.9--6.9
Total Yield-13.8%3.7%---19.3%--13.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%--0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-25.6%2.3%-----11.7%
D/E0.10.0--0.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0---0.8--0.3

Returns

ERASVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameErasca Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn44.1%11.2%-65.7%12.7%19.0%19.0%
3M Rtn103.1%15.0%--38.3%-38.3%
6M Rtn104.4%1.1%----52.7%
12M Rtn7.9%-1.4%----3.2%
3Y Rtn-55.3%41.8%-----6.8%
1M Excs Rtn47.5%8.1%-36.8%9.3%-23.0%
3M Excs Rtn105.2%9.5%--18.6%-18.6%
6M Excs Rtn89.9%-13.4%----38.2%
12M Excs Rtn-7.0%-13.9%-----10.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-125.1%-24.4%-----74.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,250,251
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.6%
Average Daily Volume1,480,911
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.97
Basic Shares Quantity283,681,570
Short % of Basic Shares5.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-4.2%4.2% 
8/12/20253.8%-2.6%3.2%
3/20/20253.4%4.7%-16.2%
11/12/2024-4.7%-6.7%-12.0%
8/12/20240.4%6.2%18.5%
3/27/20240.0%1.5%-8.3%
11/9/20230.0%10.4%-8.5%
8/10/202311.9%-3.5%3.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12104
# Negative2410
Median Positive3.6%5.5%4.5%
Median Negative-4.4%-4.6%-9.3%
Max Positive16.6%12.3%18.5%
Max Negative-4.7%-6.7%-26.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024320202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024812202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023327202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022323202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021324202210-K 12/31/2021