Erasca (ERAS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.645 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Erasca (ERAS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.645Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -135 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 160% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% | ||
| Key risksERAS key risks include [1] its complete dependence on positive clinical trial outcomes for its lead drug candidates, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -135 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 160% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
| Key risksERAS key risks include [1] its complete dependence on positive clinical trial outcomes for its lead drug candidates, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ERAS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the stock movement for Erasca (ERAS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 18, 2025), based on the most recent available information:
1. Advancement of Pan-RAS and Pan-KRAS Inhibitors into Clinical Trials.
The company received FDA clearance for Investigational New Drug (IND) applications for ERAS-0015 (a pan-RAS molecular glue) in May 2025 and ERAS-4001 (a pan-KRAS inhibitor) in June 2025. Both candidates are slated to enter Phase 1 clinical trials in 2025, with initial monotherapy data anticipated in 2026. Preclinical data presented in April 2025 further supported the potential "best-in-class" profiles of these agents.
2. Extended Cash Runway and Strong Financial Position.
Erasca substantially extended its projected cash runway multiple times, notably from the second half of 2027 to the second half of 2028, as announced in May and June 2025. This was bolstered by a strong cash position, with $411.1 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of March 31, 2025, and $386.7 million as of June 30, 2025. The extended runway, following successful equity financings in 2024 that raised $251 million, helped mitigate concerns about near-term dilution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ERAS Return | � | � | -72% | -51% | 18% | 40% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ERAS Win Rate | � | 40% | 42% | 25% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ERAS Max Drawdown | � | � | -75% | -61% | -22% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ERAS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1357.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Erasca's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -93.1% loss requires a 1357.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ERAS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Erasca
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -78 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -8 |
| CFO LTM | -78 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 168.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -280.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 987.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -285.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -286.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.4 |
| P/E | -4.4 |
| P/CFO | -5.8 |
| Total Yield | -12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 80.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 67.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -60.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -4.2% | 4.2% | 29.4% |
| 8/12/2025 | 3.8% | -2.6% | 3.2% |
| 3/20/2025 | 3.4% | 4.7% | -16.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | -4.7% | -6.7% | -12.0% |
| 8/12/2024 | 0.4% | 6.2% | 18.5% |
| 3/27/2024 | 0.0% | 1.5% | -8.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | 0.0% | 10.4% | -8.5% |
| 8/10/2023 | 11.9% | -3.5% | 3.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -4.6% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 16.6% | 12.3% | 29.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.7% | -6.7% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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